Review Winners and Losers - 2016 AFL National Draft

[flipper83]

I published this today on my thread in the Phantom Draft boards. It suggests Richmond was the biggest winner of the draft, and Geelong the biggest loser. Negative numbers mean that the players were selected lower than expected, positive numbers mean that the players were selected higher.

The numbers were generated by combining the numbers for each individual draftee in each club.
These numbers were calculated by subtracting the real draft position from the average draft position for the draftee of all the phantom drafts I could find. Of course this assumes that the combined wisdom of all the Phantom Drafts is worth anything, which we won't know for a few years.

Richmond -45.5
Gold Coast -44.1
Carlton -36.2
Brisbane -28.0
West Coast -26.3
Hawthorn -20.7
Essendon -18.3
Fremantle -5.1
Adelaide -4.7
Sydney 8.6
Port Adelaide 16.7
St. Kilda 22.4
Melbourne 26.0
GWS 27.6
North Melbourne 32.0
Collingwood 36.5
Western Bulldogs 39.0
Geelong 50.4

Overall, Richmond, Gold Coast and Carlton fans should feel happy that they got the biggest bargains, while Geelong, Bulldogs and Collingwood fans will have to trust that their recruiting teams knew what they would were doing, because they reached the most for the players they selected.

My club is at number 8, so it's not just an elaborate effort to pump up my club's tyres.

This would probably work better with the points difference of the predicted pick and used pick. With this model a reach in the first round is negated by a slider in the fifth but in reality it is much riskier to reach early on.
Every year the Dogs seem to pick some unknown kid with a late pick but so far it has worked out pretty well.

 

[Dr Whoooooooo]

No, penny dropped before you probably took your first dump in a potty. Just simply an observation.

Your club had a "cancer" and your online communities where and are the source ... ironically these days we listen to few of you

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

You mean like most jobs, it's jobs for the boys. But if you go to junior games, you are more likely to meet and know recruiters.
The bloke I know who until recently was on the recruiting team at Freo was a highly rated junior, but injuries wrecked his career before it started. He went into talent identification through the WAFL before joining Freo. I'm pretty sure he wasn't a mate of Brad Lloyd or any Freo coach but got the gig anyway.

Exactly, a highly rated junior. The pathway is a lot easier if you were a highly talented footballer. If not, makes it hard.

 

[The Unforgiven]

Surely it would take a number of years before a true assessment of who won and lost can be conducted? I get that it's the off-season and there's nothing better to do, but speculating on the drafting of the speculative seems like a rather futile exercise.

 

[QLDbeachbabe]

Clearly the recruiters have more qualifications than anyone on BigFooty, you and me included. But Knightmare devotes a lot of time to getting an early handle on prospective players, and then works hard to refine his opinions and respond to questions. His October 27th Draft was the closest of any phantom released before November. So I think it's ok to refer to his authority.
Personally, I think the draft position for Brown was about right. Daicos should have gone at about the same point. I saw them play at Etihad and was impressed with their work and flair.

Funny you should implore me to keep an open mind. Yours seems very closed.

Opinions are like assholes, everyone has one like you and Knightmare who rated Reece McKenzie from Richmond a top ten pick lol. I'll rather back a Professional afl draft recruiter than some try hard who has an opinion.

 

[Mr Fonebone]

Freo won and the rest can get stuffed.

 

[Clems Knee]

This would probably work better with the points difference of the predicted pick and used pick. With this model a reach in the first round is negated by a slider in the fifth but in reality it is much riskier to reach early on.
Every year the Dogs seem to pick some unknown kid with a late pick but so far it has worked out pretty well.

I can present the combined points difference for the first round, but that is only 12 clubs.
Adelaide (Gallucci). 6.5
Brisbane (McCluggage and Berry) -1.6
Carlton (Sam PS) 0.2
Essendon (McGrath) 1.1
Fremantle (Logue) 4.4
Gold Coast (Ainsworth, Scrimshaw, Brodie and Bowes) -3.3
GWS (Taranto, Setterfield and Perryman) 6.1
North Melbourne (Simpkin) 3.5
Port Adelaide (Marshall and Sam PP) 3.8
Sydney (Florent) 4.3
West Coast (Venables) 3.9
Western Bulldogs (English) -6.9

So you are right. In the first round, Bulldogs got the biggest bargain (assuming validity for Phantoms), followed by Gold Coast and Brisbane, while Adelaide, GWS, Fremantle and Sydney reached the most for their first round draft picks.

Of the remaining 6 teams - these are the figures for their first pick only:
Collingwood (30 McLarty) 27.5
Geelong (26 Parfitt) 17.5
Hawthorn (74 Morrison) -20.7
Melbourne (46 Hannan) 26.0
Richmond (29 Bolton) -3.1
St. Kilda (25 Long) 25.0
So yes, a lot more big reaches there, except for Hawthorn and Richmond.

 

[Donakebab]

Battle slid due to one reason going to School next year no interstate club would pick him for certain and most
Melbourne clubs are under pressure to get the players in from day one

The club I am amazed is West Coast you have a chance to get a ruckman who is the next Dean Cox

Pass ?

He slid for many reasons, not just the single one of going to school.

 

[StCicatriz]

So I guess Collingwood be Bottom 4 Side and Bucks be Sacked by RD 10 then

they wont make the 8 and bucks will step aside. pressure on ed will grow

 

[StCicatriz]

Definitely have a few now (8). A Pearce, Hamling, Collins, Johnson, Dawson, Uebergang (Rookie), Logue, Cox

I think eventually A Pearce, Hamling will be our main two talls and Logue will be the third tall. All under the age of 23 so should have plenty of years ahead of them to gel. Collins and Ueber will be depth and I think Cox will be sent to Peel's forward line (Freo's media team were listing Cox as a forward).

Our Peel side next year will be very tall with all these extra defenders and us having 5 ruckman too! (Sandi, Apeness, Clarke, Griff, Darcy)

Freo will have another fairly big cull next year which will include quite a few of these talls (Griff, Johnson, Dawson, Sandi?)

thanks for the insight mate. i think you are right about the talls cull

surely freo will be courting a ready made ruck for the next off-season

 

[ChrisRyanSaints]

we were touted to take himmelberg at our first in the lead up. and we took 15 seconds to call bolton and graham so we obviously thought they would be long gone and snapped them up.

also talks of where the improvement comes from

we have added prestia,caddy,and nankervis which should help our issues of winning the ball. then we have bolton and rioli up forward so now hopefully we don't have the ball walked out of our forward line

as for kids we have the 3 we just drafted to add to short,markov,rioli,menadue,buttler,corey ellis and hopefully lennon pulls his finger out seeing as he got snubbed

we have 2 first rounders for the draft in 2017 which means we can get 2 key position players seeing as next years draft is meant to be stacked with them.

Agree. This draft had been phenenomenol for richmond. Bolton and graham?? Both could easily have gone top 20. And maybe shouldve and with better KPFs next year yep best to wait. Richmond mayvhave finally done a good draft period!! First time ever?

 

[StCicatriz]

Sure he didn't do a Kavanagh?

Interestingly Battle was one of the very few players to run a 9+sec agility test and only measured 192cm at the combine. Doubt he has had a Paddy Cripps like growth spurt.

there seems to be some confusion around on his height, the player board has him at 194cm so do many sites

 

[Clems Knee]

Opinions are like assholes, everyone has one like you and Knightmare who rated Reece McKenzie from Richmond a top ten pick lol. I'll rather back a Professional afl draft recruiter than some try hard who has an opinion.

Firstly, I enjoyed listening to the embedded press conference. He really gave it to the Hawthorn pricks who denigrated his club.

And opinions are like arseholes, but opinions vary in whether they are worthwhile listening to. I am more inclined to listen to opinions of those who back up their opinions, with good reasoning, observations or predictions. I reckon Knightmare deserves some respect for the effort he puts in, and all phantom drafters deserve some kudos for the fact that they put out their opinions before the draft takes place. Everyone makes mistakes, so to cherry pick a mistake and highlight it is unfair.
We could do the same for every single club recruiter who picked an early dud. Which is every one.

 

[darthbards]

Still can't understand how you can win or lose a draft when the players have played zero games. I equally don't understand those that are saying you can if your team got certain players for certain positions because they need a player for that position. The player has still played zero games and might not be up to standard in his so called position.

 

[SCRAY72]

With Father-sons, who needs the draft.

Having said that, you did have two early pick two years in a row and absolutely nail them

Luckily we did, history shows that you need 4 things to win a flag.
Successful trading
Successful drafting, early,late and rookie drafting
Father sons if lucky enough to get them
A good coach and culture.

My team was lucky enough to win one in my lifetime.

PS Like your avatar

 

[Bostonian]

Opinions are like assholes, everyone has one like you and Knightmare who rated Reece McKenzie from Richmond a top ten pick lol. I'll rather back a Professional afl draft recruiter than some try hard who has an opinion.

Try hard?

The guy that writes for ESPN and got the first 6 picks of the draft correct in his summary of this years draft is a try hard?

http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/18123778/knightmare-final-afl-phantom-draft-goes-where

You're sounding like the try hard and fail here.

 

[darthbards]

Why do we have two threads on this same topic

 

[DaVillaBlues]

West Coast's draft haul is underrated. Thought they did the best out of all the teams that made the eight, Venables is a great get. And i think Josh Rotham will be a solid player.

 

[CarterS]

Still can't understand how you can win or lose a draft when the players have played zero games. I equally don't understand those that are saying you can if your team got certain players for certain positions because they need a player for that position. The player has still played zero games and might not be up to standard in his so called position.

Winners and losers compared to where people thought players would go and what they would pick up. No one here is an oracle and knows where any of these guys will be at in 5 years time. It's clearly based on info about how good these players are and projected to be. This is a footy forum where the whole point of the site is for people to talk about footy, hence the discussion.

 

[Dez!]

Your club had a "cancer" and your online communities where and are the source ... ironically these days we listen to few of you

Had? Your still here.

 

[sydney eagle]

West Coast's draft haul is underrated. Thought they did the best out of all the teams that made the eight, Venables is a great get. And i think Josh Rotham will be a solid player.

As an Eagles fan I am pleased with their draft. Seem to have got promising players in positions that need filling (small forward, strong midfielder, and a medium sized defender and a medium sized forward).

 

[marty36]

Winners and losers compared to where people thought players would go and what they would pick up. No one here is an oracle and knows where any of these guys will be at in 5 years time. It's clearly based on info about how good these players are and projected to be. This is a footy forum where the whole point of the site is for people to talk about footy, hence the discussion.

Hahahaha winners and losers is hilarious, if you finish down the bottom you have 99% chance of being a winner in the draft because you have the best picks pretty logical isn't it

 

[darthbards]

Discussions cool

Winners and losers compared to where people thought players would go and what they would pick up. No one here is an oracle and knows where any of these guys will be at in 5 years time. It's clearly based on info about how good these players are and projected to be. This is a footy forum where the whole point of the site is for people to talk about footy, hence the discussion.

Discussions cool,I just think draft discussion is way overhyped. Not overly sold on where a player got picked in regards to bargains either,they are either going to be good or not so good,and we just don't know yet.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

Discussions cool,I just think draft discussion is way overhyped. Not overly sold on where a player got picked in regards to bargains either, they are either going to be good or not so good,and we just don't know yet.

For the particular stripe of idiot commonly found in these parts, not knowing is no obstacle to having a strident opinion.

 

[Clems Knee]

Why do we have two threads on this same topic

Did you see who started the other thread?