Science/Environment Wuhan Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Pandemic Declared - Part 2

[Chief]

This is part 2 of this thread.

PART 3 IS HERE --- >

Science/Environment - Wuhan Coronavirus (COVID-19) - HCQ doesn't work - Part 3

This is part 3 of this thread. Part 2 is here: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/wuhan-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic-declared-part-2.1238728/ --------------- It looks like it began in wild animals being sold for human consumption, and once again the consequences of this stupidity is...

www.bigfooty.com

Go there for your Pangolin-rich experience /\

 

[Rotayjay]

Sydney beachgoers slammed, sixth resident dies at aged care home

Another resident at the Newmarch House aged care facility in Sydney dies as the NSW Health Minister expresses his "agitation" at people ignoring social distancing rules on three Sydney beaches which were temporarily reopened.

www.abc.net.au

A lot of Australians are honestly ******* morons. Cannot listen to instructions that can save their lives.

 

[Chameleon75]

Sydney beachgoers slammed, sixth resident dies at aged care home

Another resident at the Newmarch House aged care facility in Sydney dies as the NSW Health Minister expresses his "agitation" at people ignoring social distancing rules on three Sydney beaches which were temporarily reopened.

www.abc.net.au

A lot of Australians are honestly ******* morons. Cannot listen to instructions that can save their lives.

I get that but it’s entirely predictable. If everything is closed and you open one thing, is it not foreseeable that people would flock to that one thing?

 

[Dry Rot]

I reckon there's a pretty strong argument for the bushfires keeping our 'tourist horde' levels down for the summer 2019/20 period and so less outside vectors spreading it throughout the country. The fires were horrible, lives were lost and towns like Cobargo and Mogo were almost wiped off the map.

But I think they played a part, maybe a large part, in keeping tourist levels from both China and elsewhere down at the crucial time. We may have gotten lucky on that score.

I think we certainly did.In hindsight, far fewer tourists from China, the US and Europe saved us, given what we now know.

 

[Pessimistic]

I get that but it’s entirely predictable. If everything is closed and you open one thing, is it not foreseeable that people would flock to that one thing?

‘so easy to make a large area with lots of people look like the are not distancing. They probably are

 

[Johnny Bananas]

You are going the wrong way, we aren't plotting log numbers on a linear graph we are plotting on a log graph and you can't have zero. if that graph was to continue down it would go 0.5, 0.2, 0.1, 0.05 etc and never reach zero. No number raised to another number = zero. Let's look at a base 2 graph. At point 0 it equals 1, at 1 it equals 2, at 2 it's 4 etc. Going the other way -1 equals 0.5, -2 equals 0.25 and no matter how negative we go we will never reach zero and therefore won't go into negative numbers either. Though you could have a log graph representing negative numbers.

Okay, I see what you're saying, fair enough.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

However New Zealand’s fantastic suppression of cases is due to a wonderful leader who cannot do any wrong, while Australia’s is plainly the most unbelievable luck known in history as any ardent left wing supporter will tell you.

And which left-wing person has attributed it to luck? I attribute it mostly to state Premiers, since they are the ones who have control over schools, hospitals, state borders, police forces and fines. New Zealand does not have states, so their national government is much more responsible for the measure they have in place than ours is.

 

[Mateyman]

I agree and that's my point. In my opinion both leaders and countries have performed well with the circumstances and the stats show that. Cases and deaths are way way down to where they could have been with both showing similar end results.

But your average left supporter wont hear of it in this country and give any credit to the federal government while gushing with praise for the one across the Tasman.

I'm generally speaking left of centre. I think that all political leaders have been caught out in this scenario wanting to continue business as usual. That includes Daniel Andrews with the GP, and Sco Mo in general and with 'the footy'. I'm not really sure what was happening in NZ so can't really comment there. Having said all that, I'm overall quite pleased with the response from the government in general. I think in these scenarios the political leaders are generally too scared of the consequences to do too much different to what the medical advisers say and I think our medical apparatus (not necessarily those at the top but the whole system) has done an excellent job relative to other countries. I wouldn't really attribute that to the politicians themselves at state or federal level but they've done a decent job.

 

[Chief]

 

[deanc]

I agree and that's my point. In my opinion both leaders and countries have performed well with the circumstances and the stats show that. Cases and deaths are way way down to where they could have been with both showing similar end results.

But your average left supporter wont hear of it in this country and give any credit to the federal government while gushing with praise for the one across the Tasman.

It is 'strange' that only a few weeks ago the Aus media were reporting almost daily on NZ's great mitigation efforts and measures to just have 1 fatality compared to Aus, however in recent times sadly NZ has been recording 1 or 2 a day, currently at 18 fatalities and now for 'some reason' the Aus media don't mention NZ at all...?

 

[ExcitementMachine]

I'm generally speaking left of centre. I think that all political leaders have been caught out in this scenario wanting to continue business as usual. That includes Daniel Andrews with the GP, and Sco Mo in general and with 'the footy'. I'm not really sure what was happening in NZ so can't really comment there. Having said all that, I'm overall quite pleased with the response from the government in general. I think in these scenarios the political leaders are generally too scared of the consequences to do too much different to what the medical advisers say and I think our medical apparatus (not necessarily those at the top but the whole system) has done an excellent job relative to other countries. I wouldn't really attribute that to the politicians themselves at state or federal level but they've done a decent job.

Morrison has done surprisingly well for someone who's the leader of a Liberal government, saying he was going to go to the rugby while coronavirus was spreading was a howler/own goal. I have liked Morrison through this period, liked how he's worked with state governments, liked that he's worked with the ALP, liked his socialist policies - and he has presented to be a class above all Liberal politicians bar maybe Frydenberg and I don't mind Hunt either. Morrison is a much better leader for the greater good/person than John Howard - a low bar to hurdle. That said - he's also been very lucky to have great(er) leaders at state level in paticular Dan Andrews who's been ahead of Scott Morrison on what the right course of action was at the time. The bushfires have hel;ped Australia and the Morrison government immensely. I'd like to think Bill Shorten's ALP would have done a better job however would have they stood up to China on the Wet Markets? I'd like to think he would do that too and I do think the ALP would have steered us into an even better position that we've arrived at now.

 

[CD Xbow]

Morrison has done surprisingly well for someone who's the leader of a Liberal government, saying he was going to go to the rugby while coronavirus was spreading was a howler/own goal. I have liked Morrison through this period, liked how he's worked with state governments, liked that he's worked with the ALP, liked his socialist policies - and he has presented to be a class above all Liberal politicians bar maybe Frydenberg and I don't mind Hunt either. Morrison is a much better leader for the greater good/person than John Howard - a low bar to hurdle. That said - he's also been very lucky to have great(er) leaders at state level in paticular Dan Andrews who's been ahead of Scott Morrison on what the right course of action was at the time. The bushfires have hel;ped Australia and the Morrison government immensely. I'd like to think Bill Shorten's ALP would have done a better job however would have they stood up to China on the Wet Markets? I'd like to think he would do that too and I do think the ALP would have steered us into an even better position that we've arrived at now.

The Vic and NSW premiers pushed him at the start but he got on board and most importantly the state & feds moved quickly.
.

Recovered patients retesting positive in vietnam.

Vietnam reports 5 recovered COVID-19 patients testing positive again, tally still 270

The Ministry of Health said 220 patients have recovered from the disease as of Saturday morning, down from 225 the day earlier

tuoitrenews.vn

There have been a number of reports of this from different countries. There also some reports of low antibody titres in some people. Makes you wonder about the viability of herd immunity. We still don't know enough about the basic biology of the critter and our immunological response. It may be an issue related to the tests, this Australian case suggests it may be https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/heal...leared-in-possible-reactivation-case-c-997155

Added - About antibodies - https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/20...nity-and-antibodies-and-plenty-we-still-dont/

Brazil getting it badly - https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04...lth-system-close-to-collapse-covid19/12184912 I wonder if there are going to be a number of bumps in the curve as the virus moves through Brazil, India etc, then probably a bit later through Africa. The curve has 2 bumps so far, one reflecting Chinese infections and another for US & Europe.

 

[Pakenhamsaint]

Sydney beachgoers slammed, sixth resident dies at aged care home

Another resident at the Newmarch House aged care facility in Sydney dies as the NSW Health Minister expresses his "agitation" at people ignoring social distancing rules on three Sydney beaches which were temporarily reopened.

www.abc.net.au

A lot of Australians are honestly ******* morons. Cannot listen to instructions that can save their lives.

It's entirely predictable. People are fed up being cooped up inside for weeks on end and use it as a chance to escape the house. If the authorities didn't think it was going to happen then they're idiots. The exact same is going to happen when we are allowed to go to the footy, cinemas, wherever.

 

[Rotayjay]

Young people are paying the biggest price to keep mainly older people safe — will their sacrifices be compensated?

Few young people die of COVID-19, but they are being asked to make the biggest financial sacrifices to keep their elders safe. But will older generations return the favour when post-pandemic economic and tax policies are being formulated?

mobile.abc.net.au

What's the bet we're going to see Workchoices 2.0 and further tax breaks for the wealthy in response to the COVID-19 recession?

 

[CD Xbow]

In earlier posts there was discussion of ICU, mechanical ventilation & outcomes, this article, strangely for the NYPost, is quite good and paints a grim picture https://nypost.com/2020/04/23/doctors-urge-caution-when-using-ventilators-for-coronavirus-patients/ Remember not all patients who go to ICU get mechanically ventilated but all mechanically ventilated patients will be in ICU. You can't use these figures to say what percent die who go to ICU.

Indonesia is going to be very, very bad. https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-04-24/coronavirus-indonesia-response We need to be prepared to help.

 

[Ron The Bear]

Experience

experience.arcgis.com

The official Swedish statistics report deaths by date of death. There is a time lag of 3-5 days before all deaths on a particular date have been recorded.

Thanks for that, excellent. The trend below does indeed look very positive.

Do you know how to interpret the chart, given 110+ deaths have been reported on 7 of the last 11 days according to sites like JHU? Have many of these recent deaths not yet been included on the above chart and ascribed to a specific date, assuming that a death would be reported prior to the details being incorporated into charts like this?

It's difficult to reconcile it with the daily case count from the same site. At face value it looks as though they've found a cure!

 

[Snake_Baker]

 

[Pessimistic]

Young people are paying the biggest price to keep mainly older people safe — will their sacrifices be compensated?

Few young people die of COVID-19, but they are being asked to make the biggest financial sacrifices to keep their elders safe. But will older generations return the favour when post-pandemic economic and tax policies are being formulated?

mobile.abc.net.au

What's the bet we're going to see Workchoices 2.0 and further tax breaks for the wealthy in response to the COVID-19 recession?

let’s just totally forget if you’re over 50 and lose your job theres significant barriers to getting another one.

there’s only one economic divide, and it’s not generational

 

[Snake_Baker]

She's not whining about how the coronavirus is stuffing up her husbands vineyard sales this month?

What an outstanding working class "warrior"



This idiot represents everything that's wrong with the Labor Party and modern journalism.

 

[Snake_Baker]

 

[RudyBlue]

Great discussion on the role of ventilators

 

[Toump Ass]

You need to stop posting. My post was not emotional. Perhaps long winded for someone with the attention span of a gnat.

It is actually important that people don’t just assume this virus is weather related, as that affects where they place their resources. There is not overwhelming evidence that it is more contagious in the cold. In fact the evidence is clear that that is not the case.

Do you wear a cape while you're posting on bigfooty?

 

[HardcoreGeelongFan]

France limits nicotine product sales after research suggests could protect from coronavirus

France has limited the sale of nicotine products following research that suggested nicotine could potentially protect people from coronavirus.

www.sbs.com.au

Panic buy!!!

 

[Frank Bunn]

She's not whining about how the coronavirus is stuffing up her husbands vineyard sales this month?

What an outstanding working class "warrior"

View attachment 864951

This idiot represents everything that's wrong with the Labor Party and modern journalism.

She's an idiot but more your typical wealthy do as I say not as I do Greens supporter. Claims to breed cattle and grow grapes whilst living in Warringah.

 

[Frank Bunn]

That assumes that Sweden gets enough of its population infected without overwhelming its medical system, and there is currently no evidence that that will happen any time soon.

Even if you take the numbers put out by the Stanford and USC experiments (both of which have issues), there is maybe 5% of the population infected. All indications are that you need between 60-80% of the population to be immune before herd immunity works, and its herd immunity - either through infection or vaccine - that would stop further waves.

As things stand, all that will probably happen is that Sweden will have 2nd and 3rd waves like every other country, and they won't be much better

5% is significantly more than Australia. Just as the infection rate is exponential so is the immunisation rate.

Sweden's chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell thinks Stockholm might reach herd immunity in early May.

Mr Tegnell, the head of Sweden's Public Health Agency, told US media this week that cases in the capital had plateaued, and that the effects of herd immunity were already apparent.​

​

Mathematical modelling from Swedish health officials predicts that around 26 per cent of people in the Stockholm region (or around 690,000 people) will be infected, or will have been previously infected, by May 1.​

 

[Ghost Patrol]

She's not whining about how the coronavirus is stuffing up her husbands vineyard sales this month?

What an outstanding working class "warrior"

View attachment 864951

This idiot represents everything that's wrong with the Labor Party and modern journalism.

She is a dickhead, but I think Trump is more relevant to this thread