Prediction R11: Changes vs Collingwood

[Unique Name]

Are Collingwood any good?

They've won 6 games against 7th, 12th, 14th, 16th, 17th and 18th.

They've certainly got more confidence than us. With Sandi out their midfield+Grundy is a step above ours.

I'll be interested to see how Fyfe performs in the midfield without big Sandi. Hopefully Neale bounces back after a poor showing.

 

[ydraw]

Hang on.

I thought Ross didn’t do 882?

As in he hates their ******* guts after Hackdorn and Hardon’s Soprano-style lynching attempts.

It's not really up to him. Doing media is part of his contract.

 

[LeftFootBanana]

Kersten will do a Tarrant and re-invent himself as a tall defender. His pace and kicking might see him take over the Johnno intercept make/distributor role circa 2015. Having said that Johnno was ok against the Roos so I can't see him him dropping out.

Ape in along with Giro would be nice. Some hard hitting and hard running would be a nice addition. Ballas body is completely shot I think but he'll keep going until Harley is ready.

 

[Cobbler]

Sandilands and Hill officially ruled out. You'd have to argue Pearce in serious doubt and question marks on Johnson and Ballas although they may get a reprieve simply due to experience.

Sandi out is the big one. May see some interesting moves. For me the aggressive move would be Apeness and Strnadica both in. Obvious would be Jones and Apeness. Stupid would be just Jones or Apeness and support from Cox.

 

[Dockernut]

Kersten will do a Tarrant and re-invent himself as a tall defender. His pace and kicking might see him take over the Johnno intercept make/distributor role circa 2015. Having said that Johnno was ok against the Roos so I can't see him him dropping out.

Ape in along with Giro would be nice. Some hard hitting and hard running would be a nice addition. Ballas body is completely shot I think but he'll keep going until Harley is ready.

So, I’m probably in the minority here, but I don’t think Kersten as a defender is a very good idea. Sure, what I’ve seen of him in defence has been serviceable, but in a team that is completely bereft of forward options, wouldn’t you just persist with him - even if only to get us one maybe two goals a game?

Just strikes me as so ****ing dumb to cast him completely out of the role he was meant to play for us, on the back of what? a bad start to the season??? Jesus wept.

 

[ydraw]

The thing is we already have small forwards, Kersten doesn't play tall so why would you persist with him ahead of Walters/Matera/Bennell etc?

And it's not just a bad start to the season. Kersten has averaged 0.5 contested marks per game over his entire career, which is barely more than Michael Walters. It's just not in him to play the tall forward role that we recruited him for.

 

[Square Peg]

Sandilands and Hill officially ruled out. You'd have to argue Pearce in serious doubt and question marks on Johnson and Ballas although they may get a reprieve simply due to experience.

Sandi out is the big one. May see some interesting moves. For me the aggressive move would be Apeness and Strnadica both in. Obvious would be Jones and Apeness. Stupid would be just Jones or Apeness and support from Cox.

100% agree but I'm preparing myself for Stupid.

 

[freo1997]

So, I’m probably in the minority here, but I don’t think Kersten as a defender is a very good idea. Sure, what I’ve seen of him in defence has been serviceable, but in a team that is completely bereft of forward options, wouldn’t you just persist with him - even if only to get us one maybe two goals a game?

Just strikes me as so ******* dumb to cast him completely out of the role he was meant to play for us, on the back of what? a bad start to the season??? Jesus wept.

I agree with you Dockernut. I see him as a Tori Dickson/Townsend type of player. Not a superstar player, but good for 2 goals a game. Not sure why we banished him to peels back line after 1 game, yet Ballas, McCarthy and now Cox (in a goal kicking sense) are still coasting along.

 

[Freomaniac]

Not too sure I'd be doubling down on youth at this point, at the moment we're competitive for stretches - however too many more kids may be damaging to their development and place an increasing workload on some of our better players.

Keep pumping the games into the kids and put pressure on those at Peel to put their hand up.

This is why I'm strangely OK with D Pearce getting a game, he went back and worked hard and got back in ....that's a reasonable bar to set for the playing list.

You know when you think about it, this time last year, Freo played 10 guys with 50 games or less last year. You always assume you would play 10 guys aged 21 or under. That was a bit deceiving as Kersten and Hamling were 2 of those 10 players with 50 games or less as both were 24-25 years old. Also as the injuries came in and when we only had the kids left to play, the heavy losses came too, especially late in the season.

Yeah i did think that the other day. He did play forward last year and i can remember him taking a few marks and kicking a few goals. I would rather play him down back however as that seems to be where we are grooming him for so the more time we get him in the back 6 and settled i think we really have to so that we can fast track him a bit.

Logue only kicked 1 goal for freo last year. That was a set shot vs North at Subiaco.

That’s alarming about Kersten he has effectively been ruled out of a position he has been recruited for. He’s surely gone once his contract runs out.

I will not be happy if that was the case. I still see Kersten as a 10-15 possession player that can kick 2 or 3 goals on a good day.

I hope he gets selected this week as a forward and kick 2-3 or possibly 4 goals this week.

 

[Galvo]

I would love to see Ross be true to his word in “doubling down” on the youth

Out: D.Pearce (Omitted), Johnson (Omitted), Ballantyne (Omitted), S.Hill (Quad), Sandilands (Concussion)

In: Hughes, Duman, Giro, Bennell, Apeness

Shift Blakely into the midfield and play Fyfe forwardand to give the young guys more time in the midfield to aid their development.

I also thought Banfield showed promise as a pressure forward and I’d rather see that than us playing with a negative mindset in the midfield

It couldn’t hurt to bring Bennell in on reduced minutes and get more game time into the young guys either.

Duman Hamling Hughes
Wilson A.Pearce Ryan
Langdon Blakely Tucker
Walters Fyfe McCarthy
Banfield Cox Matera

Apeness Mundy Neale

Bennell Brayshaw Cerra Giro

That may actually be a better side than last week despite the forced changes and extensive injury list

 

[StingBitten]

It's not really up to him. Doing media is part of his contract.

He wasn’t on 6PR all of last year from what I recall. Has he been on every week this year?

 

[ydraw]

I will not be happy if that was the case. I still see Kersten as a 10-15 possession player that can kick 2 or 3 goals on a good day.

Couldn't that apply to literally anyone who plays a full game in the forward line?

Everyone currently playing in our forward line is capable of doing that. The question really is what else are they expected to do in their role?

Tall Forwards are expected to impact aerial contests to prevent intercept marks and create crumbs for the small forwards.
Small forwards are expected to tackle and pressure to lock the ball inside 50.

When Kersten played forward for us (which he did for the entirety of last season), he wasn't really able to do either of those things. That's why he's currently out of the side.

That's not to say there isn't a role that could be found for him. But he's not a tall forward and he's not a small forward, so where do you fit him in the forward line? Trialling him as a defender is the smart move since unless he can greatly improve his contested marking, he's not going to make it as a forward.

 

[Freomaniac]

We are going to get smashed!

Judging by all our away games this season, Freo will kick between 4-9 goals this week. You might be right.

Fml. Next weekend will suck

To a degree. I can find a few positives in playing the youf.

That same clown picked the Eagles for the spoon. Failed coach, failed commentator. He probably ridiculed Brad Scott 2 years ago for cutting the players he's talking about now.

I'm all for Lyon copping some scrutiny in the media, but not from that joker.

I dislike Robert walls Like a air bit of people on here. Failed coach? Got Carlton to a flag in 1987, no that it was sayg much with the team they had.

Also I enjoyed his open mike interview. Especially when he talked about His Brisbane Coaching stint from 1991-5. Those blokes who got debut games under his watch were part of the Lions flag years of 2001-3

 

[mike91]

So, I’m probably in the minority here, but I don’t think Kersten as a defender is a very good idea. Sure, what I’ve seen of him in defence has been serviceable, but in a team that is completely bereft of forward options, wouldn’t you just persist with him - even if only to get us one maybe two goals a game?

Just strikes me as so ******* dumb to cast him completely out of the role he was meant to play for us, on the back of what? a bad start to the season??? Jesus wept.

Kersten, whilst obviously not a star, was better than McCarthy last year. He finished top 10 in our b&f. He kicked one less goal than Cam, even though he spent more time up the ground. Trains as a forward over pre season, plays as a forward in JLT and Round One, then gets dropped and is now suddenly a defender. Ross had the whole pre season to make that change, yet decides to do it after Round One. Poor coaching really.

Dropped Tabs and basically gave up on him (yet Ross gets credit for Tabs good form on here), gave up on Kersten as a forward after wasting a pre season playing him forward, yet continues to spoon feed McCarthy games for being the worst performing forward in the AFL.

 

[freo1997]

Couldn't that apply to literally anyone who plays a full game in the forward line?

Everyone currently playing in our forward line is capable of doing that. The question really is what else are they expected to do in their role?

Tall Forwards are expected to impact aerial contests to prevent intercept marks and create crumbs for the small forwards.
Small forwards are expected to tackle and pressure to lock the ball inside 50.

When Kersten played forward for us (which he did for the entirety of last season), he wasn't really able to do either of those things. That's why he's currently out of the side.

That's not to say there isn't a role that could be found for him. But he's not a tall forward and he's not a small forward, so where do you fit him in the forward line? Trialling him as a defender is the smart move since unless he can greatly improve his contested marking, he's not going to make it as a forward.

In some ways I do agree with your post. But we currently have Cox who can mark but can’t kick and McCarthy who usually has a good kick but is pretty lost with everything else on the field atm.

Kersten’s had a handful of really solid games for us last year (Against Richmond, Essendon, Hawthorn in the wet to name a few) so it’s a shame imo that it hasn’t worked as his set shot for goal is safe as houses..That’s something FFC haven’t had too much of besides Pav, Farmer and Mods to name a couple.

 

[Freomaniac]

Couldn't that apply to literally anyone who plays a full game in the forward line?

Everyone currently playing in our forward line is capable of doing that. The question really is what else are they expected to do in their role?

Tall Forwards are expected to impact aerial contests to prevent intercept marks and create crumbs for the small forwards.
Small forwards are expected to tackle and pressure to lock the ball inside 50.

When Kersten played forward for us (which he did for the entirety of last season), he wasn't really able to do either of those things. That's why he's currently out of the side.

That's not to say there isn't a role that could be found for him. But he's not a tall forward and he's not a small forward, so where do you fit him in the forward line? Trialling him as a defender is the smart move since unless he can greatly improve his contested marking, he's not going to make it as a forward.

To be Honest I think of Kersten as similar to Cam McCarthy. Both are 190 cm and 90 kg. The Difference is Cam is a more naturally talented footballer than Kersten and developed more quicker than him too if you compare them in their respective early ears of their career.

Both could play as 2nd talls as A CHF or a forward flanker.

If you compare them, when it comes t development, there has been a Difference. Cam was a mid 1st round pick in 2013. He played game in his debut season in 2014. In 2015, he kicked 35 goals from 20 games. Hence why freo offered 2 1st rounders go get him from GWS.

Kersten was taken in a pick in the 30s. He was injury riddled as well and was Lightly built compared to McCarthy. He spent 2012 and 2013 in the Cats reserve team. got that debut game in his 3rd year in 2014 and kicked 10 goals from 9 games then 9 goals from 11 games in 2015. So in that 2 year period, he got games but Struggled as a 2nd tall at Geelong.

He then got a good round of games in 2016. Kicked 23 goals from 17 games in his final year at Geelong. He didn't play in their finals games as he kicked 3 goals from 4 games. He was also out of contract as we wasn't worth a lot on the trade Table.

Ok So he isn't that Dominant 195-200 cm 100 odd kg Forward that can crash the packs and take contested marks. He isn't that Walters or Ballantyne small forward that has pace and provide forward pressure. What you said is true, He isn't either of that tall or small forward type of player or does any of those things a tall or small forward would do.

Yet..... He kicked 24 goals and played 20 games for Freo last year. But why and How did he play so much last season?

Ok Freo had injuries so that was obvious. But what is Shane Kerstens strengths? He is a good overhead and chest marker on the wing. Kerstens biggest redeeming value is he his a very good set shot hence why he kicked 24 goals and 16 behinds last year. Plus he can pick the crumbs and kick vital goals like the one vs North at Subiaco last year.

So yeah I am surprised Kersten hasn't 5-6 games this year.

In some ways I do agree with your post. But we currently have Cox who can mark but can’t kick and McCarthy who usually has a good kick but is pretty lost with everything else on the field atm.

Kersten’s had a handful of really solid games for us last year (Against Richmond, Essendon, Hawthorn in the wet to name a few) so it’s a shame imo that it hasn’t worked as his set shot for goal is safe as houses..That’s something FFC haven’t had too much of besides Pav, Farmer and Mods to name a couple.

I would add chris Mayne on that list as well.... 39 Goals and 7 behinds in 2012, 35 goals and 10 behinds in 2013.

 

[ydraw]

He then got a good round of games in 2016. Kicked 23 goals from 17 games in his final year at Geelong. He didn't play in their finals games as he kicked 3 goals from 4 games. He was also out of contract as we wasn't worth a lot on the trade Table.

Yet..... He kicked 24 goals and played 20 games for Freo last year. But why and How did he play so much last season?

At the risk of my repeating myself, if you play in the forward line for an entire season and don't kick something like 20-25 goals then something is very wrong.

It's not really saying much about anyone to say they kicked 20 goals in a season as a permanent forward. 70 players in the AFL kicked 20 or more goals last year. Kersten's return of 22 goals for Geelong in 2016 only managed to get him 5th on their goalkicking list.

 

[ydraw]

That’s something FFC haven’t had too much of besides Pav, Farmer and Mods to name a couple.

Taberner's a better set shot than all of those.

Career goal accuracy average of 67.5%
Pavlich 61%
Modra 65%
Farmer 63%

So it's not like Kersten's the only bloke we've got who can kick for goal. Taberner's is very good too.

Kersten does have about an extra 5m in his leg over the average player though, which I think is a highly underrated thing to have - especially as a leading forward who is going to be taking more shots from further out than someone who takes more contested marks. Was probably Mayne' biggest weakness as a forward.

 

[Freomaniac]

At the risk of my repeating myself, if you play in the forward line for an entire season and don't kick something like 20-25 goals then something is very wrong.

It's not really saying much about anyone to say they kicked 20 goals in a season as a permanent forward. 70 players in the AFL kicked 20 or more goals last year. Kersten's return of 22 goals for Geelong in 2016 only managed to get him 5th on their goalkicking list.

As I said. He did kick 24 goals and 16 behinds from 20 games last year. McCarthy kicked 25. Walters got 32 goals.

Kersten hasn't been given a fair go this season. As I said I have no Idea why he has been dropped. He is one of the more accurate kickers in the side.

I was hoping he would kick on and improve and kick 30-35 this season.

 

[ydraw]

As I said. He did kick 24 goals and 16 behinds from 20 games last year. McCarthy kicked 25. Walters got 32 goals.

Kersten hasn't been given a fair go this season.

He was given a more than fair go last season - mostly at the expense of a genuine key forward in Taberner - and wasn't up to the job.

Nobody needs to watch him not take contested marks for any more games to know that he's not a key forward. If we have a vacancy in another role then we will probably give him a try there. Most likely he will replace Michael Johnson if we go full double-down rebuild.

The reason he was dropped is pretty straightforward. We were trying to play him as a key forward, but he wasn't any good at it. He's an undersized leading forward who's competing with McCarthy for the 1 spot we have for that kind of player.

The real question is why he was picked for Round 1 at all when everyone already knew these things. But the answer to that is probably (sadly) just age profile, since we apparently tried to pick our oldest and most experienced possible team in round 1 for some reason.

 

[george2]

You know when you think about it, this time last year, Freo played 10 guys with 50 games or less last year. You always assume you would play 10 guys aged 21 or under. That was a bit deceiving as Kersten and Hamling were 2 of those 10 players with 50 games or less as both were 24-25 years old. Also as the injuries came in and when we only had the kids left to play, the heavy losses came too, especially late in the season.

Logue only kicked 1 goal for freo last year. That was a set shot vs North at Subiaco.

Well there you go. I do remember him missing a few that game but he did take a few grabs. In saying that i dont feel there is much point at all in playing him forward and would much rather him settle in the the back 6 as this is where he will carve out his career and be the most beneficial.

 

[Son of a Wizard]

Apeness to kick a goal after the siren and win the game for us by a point.


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[dominguez]

The obvious changes are Hill and Sandilands for Apeness and Giro.

Hopefully Duman for Johnson too.

 

[Freomania]

I think both Apeness and Nads both need to come in both can play forward and both can share the ruck duties. Apeness has missed a lot of footy and will be stuffed by quarter time will need more support than just Cox
Giro in for Hill

 

[Son of a Wizard]

Definitely need two rucks in...


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