Recommitted Tim Kelly [requested a trade to West Coast]

[sr36]

Go watch his game against richmond last year and tell me he wasnt on the verge of becoming a star. Its not just that he racks up 36 touches against the best team in the land but it was the quality of the possessions. Picking up the ball cleanly in wet conditions at pace and side stepping opponents at will. He made dangerfield and martin look second rate.

All he needed was a bit more fitness that naturally comes with a second year in the system.

I agree that he'd shown star potential, but there was more risk involved than is often the case. He was overlooked in 5 drafts for a reason. I personally think it was great for Kelly that he stayed in Geelong as it reduced the risk of him regressing into the approach that stopped him being drafted at a younger age. I hope he re-signs because it's the best chance of him reaching and maintaining his potential and if he does, it will be a joy, because he is just such a pure footballer to watch.

Cats would have had a better understanding of Kelly and obviously felt it was a small risk and valued him accordingly. WCE would have had a lesser understanding of him and thus the risk would have been higher, thus I can understand them valuing him significantly lower than the Cats did.

 

[Seeds]

CS doesn’t allocate Geelong votes on his own.

First learn how it works.

Are you just a complete idiot who doesnt understand basic words or are you trying to make a bad joke to deflect from the fact your conspiracy theory has been pulverised?

 

[Wojcinski]

Cats would have had a better understanding of Kelly and obviously felt it was a small risk and valued him accordingly. WCE would have had a lesser understanding of him and thus the risk would have been higher, thus I can understand them valuing him significantly lower than the Cats did.

This is actually a very good point, and something that may have been addressed if TK had a proper player manager rather than a loud mouthed real estate agent as his manager.

 

[Ricky Vaughn]

Look all I know is that at least round 9 looked suspect. I am also talking about Geelong coaches who continually give votes higher than opposition coaches.

Would be good if he got good votes against a team that isn’t crap.

I mean let’s have a look:

North are crap
Melb were crap in rd2 (not that they aren’t now)
Adelaide were crap where Pyke coaching was questioned
Essendon - ok but they don’t defend
Collingwood - well done but given they played grand final....they were off.

Tough games - goes missing and at weekend If he didn’t get votes, he would have started to fall behind...

I'm struggling to get a read on this post.
Is it serious?

 

[sr36]

This is actually a very good point, and something that may have been addressed if TK had a proper player manager rather than a loud mouthed real estate agent as his manager.

It would help, but regardless of who the manager was, WCE should still be skeptical because a manager's job is to talk up his client.

Imagine a more extreme example: Liam Ryan requests a trade to a Melbourne club. If what he has shown WCE in his time with them has convinced them that he is fully dedicated and will get the best out of himself, he'd be worth a very high draft pick to them. But Melbourne clubs who haven't seen his attitude first hand will still consider him to be a major risk and wouldn't offer anywhere near what WCE would need to be satisfied. No manager's pitch would bridge the gap in perceived value.

Footballers don't have a real value, they have a perceived value based on a club's expectations of their future, these expectations will sometimes vary markedly for a variety of reasons. So the whole lowball offer theory is often just a difference in perceived value. It's possible that WCE were playing funny buggers and trying to screw Geelong over because they felt they had them over a barrel and they would take a lowball offer in the end, but I suspect that they're too professional and not just the cowboys that that suggests and instead it was a genuine difference in perceived value.

I bet right now that WCE are wringing their hands with disappointment about getting their perceived value of Tim Kelly horribly wrong.

 

[ghostbat12]

It would help, but regardless of who the manager was, WCE should still be skeptical because a manager's job is to talk up his client.

Imagine a more extreme example: Liam Ryan requests a trade to a Melbourne club. If what he has shown WCE in his time with them has convinced them that he is fully dedicated and will get the best out of himself, he'd be worth a very high draft pick to them. But Melbourne clubs who haven't seen his attitude first hand will still consider him to be a major risk and wouldn't offer anywhere near what WCE would need to be satisfied. No manager's pitch would bridge the gap in perceived value.

Footballers don't have a real value, they have a perceived value based on a club's expectations of their future, these expectations will sometimes vary markedly for a variety of reasons. So the whole lowball offer theory is often just a difference in perceived value. It's possible that WCE were playing funny buggers and trying to screw Geelong over because they felt they had them over a barrel and they would take a lowball offer in the end, but I suspect that they're too professional and not just the cowboys that that suggests and instead it was a genuine difference in perceived value.

I bet right now that WCE are wringing their hands with disappointment about getting their perceived value of Tim Kelly horribly wrong.

Huh?

 

[sr36]

Huh?

Sorry. I write for you again.

Tim Kelly. Geelong think he worth more. WCE think he worth less. No trade. WCE list manager now sad. Now think he worth more. Wish trade last year.

 

[Wojcinski]

Sorry. I write for you again.

Tim Kelly. Geelong think he worth more. WCE think he worth less. No trade. WCE list manager now sad. Now think he worth more. Wish trade last year.

LOL

 

[Scotland]

Everyone seems pretty confident on West Coast's 'feelings' about the whole thing. AFAIK West Coast have actually said nothing since trade week last year...

 

[sr36]

Everyone seems pretty confident on West Coast's 'feelings' about the whole thing. AFAIK West Coast have actually said nothing since trade week last year...

True and St Kilda have never said anything about their 'feelings' regarding having used a number 1 draft pick on Patrick McCartin. I'm still pretty confident that if they had their time again St Kilda would call out a different name, just as I'm pretty confident that if WCE had their time again they would pay the Geelong price, if it is even close to what has been reported.

 

[ghostbat12]

Sorry. I write for you again.

Tim Kelly. Geelong think he worth more. WCE think he worth less. No trade. WCE list manager now sad. Now think he worth more. Wish trade last year.

Haha very questionable about what actually happened.

As our list manager said after trade, Geelong will be getting less now.

 

[ghostbat12]

True and St Kilda have never said anything about their 'feelings' regarding having used a number 1 draft pick on Patrick McCartin. I'm still pretty confident that if they had their time again St Kilda would call out a different name, just as I'm pretty confident that if WCE had their time again they would pay the Geelong price, if it is even close to what has been reported.

Here we go again. Diminished leverage = diminished ability to set price.

 

[sr36]

Haha very questionable about what actually happened.

As our list manager said after trade, Geelong will be getting less now.

I assume that was said before this season began? Pretty sure if he gets traded at the end of 2019, it will cost his new club more in trade and a damn site more in salary than it would have at the end of 2018.

 

[sr36]

Here we go again. Diminished leverage = diminished ability to set price.

Maybe, but if everyone now values him much more highly, the price is likely to still go up and even if it remains the same, wouldn't they like to have him out there for them this year?

 

[Peel67skin]

Haha very questionable about what actually happened.

As our list manager said after trade, Geelong will be getting less now.

Why not wait until the end of the season, you keep saying Geelong getting less but nobody know until a trade is done.

 

[Herne Hill Hammer]

Huh?

I'm not surprised by this response from you. English is obviously not your preferred language.

 

[Scotland]

Why not wait until the end of the season, you keep saying Geelong getting less but nobody know until a trade is done.

100% correct.

But this would also apply to the 985 people saying 'price is now XYZ'.

 

[sr36]

Of course. Give it another week or two and it was just 20 and 22.

Whatever it was, if your list managers had their time over, I'm pretty confident they'd take Geelongs lowest suggestion. Kelly's flying and would have increased your chances of going back to back. If wce try to get him again I'm pretty confident that he will cost a lot more in salary cap space and probably trade.

In retrospect it was an error, but every club makes errors everydraft period so no big deal, but he would look great in your midfield.

 

[Scotland]

Sure, in retrospect, the unconfirmed offer that wasn't made that is less than the previously unconfirmed offer that was made but wasn't accepted, is probably a good deal... but if you move the goalposts enough it becomes pretty meaningless.

 

[sr36]

Sure, in retrospect, the unconfirmed offer that wasn't made that is less than the previously unconfirmed offer that was made but wasn't accepted, is probably a good deal... but if you move the goalposts enough it becomes pretty meaningless.

Your list manager and recruitment team are pretty bloody good. I'm not sure why you refuse to concede that he erred on this occasion.

 

[year of the cat]

Gee Geelong coaches are pumping up Kelly’s coaches votes, aren’t they?

I wonder why....

Because he’s playing well?

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I agree that he'd shown star potential, but there was more risk involved than is often the case. He was overlooked in 5 drafts for a reason. I personally think it was great for Kelly that he stayed in Geelong as it reduced the risk of him regressing into the approach that stopped him being drafted at a younger age. I hope he re-signs because it's the best chance of him reaching and maintaining his potential and if he does, it will be a joy, because he is just such a pure footballer to watch.

Cats would have had a better understanding of Kelly and obviously felt it was a small risk and valued him accordingly. WCE would have had a lesser understanding of him and thus the risk would have been higher, thus I can understand them valuing him significantly lower than the Cats did.

Fair points.

 

[ghostbat12]

I assume that was said before this season began? Pretty sure if he gets traded at the end of 2019, it will cost his new club more in trade and a damn site more in salary than it would have at the end of 2018.

You can assume and be sure of whatever you please.

 

[Biscut]

Gee Geelong coaches are pumping up Kelly’s coaches votes, aren’t they?

I wonder why....

Errrr, you do realise the oppo coach also gives his votes for the best players. Ie: if both coaches have him as best on, he gets 10 votes.

 

[Biscut]

Sorry. I write for you again.

Tim Kelly. Geelong think he worth more. WCE think he worth less. No trade. WCE list manager now sad. Now think he worth more. Wish trade last year.

Classic! I read and understood your first post on this. It’s just sad that you were forced to dumb it down for others!