The pivotal 3 weeks of June 2019

[John Who]

I don't understand what you mean?

I am only an intermittent gambler and when you see things like Geelong being $2.40 at Kardinia Park against us you know that it's a golden opportunity to make some easy money.

My point was that nothing is really a sure thing these days and especially in modern footy. Last year we looked pretty bad and somehow pulled out a win over there!

 

[Thegibbsgamble]

So many good players were s**t last week. We played a side that wasn't fit, no confidence. A side that relied on fitness to counter no structure to thier side. We kicked the last 5 goals to win by 2 points. They kicked 3 11 in that last half.

We relied on old men to win the game.

We seem to have no chance at geelong. The two home games, always winnable.

The only positive to the geelong game, is we wouldn't of left adelaide for a month, seedsman crouch sloane Douglas brown milera Betts Lynch walker jacobs laird will all be fit and healthy, ready to go.


All three are winnable. We match up well on Gws, tigers our bitches at ao.

 

[skam85]

* Against Cats:
We've won only 1 out of our last 3 games in Victoria. Good news was that our recent match in Victoria against the Cats was last year, and we actually had won!

So how much did you lose on the punt, when last year we had won?

We haven't beaten Geelong in Victoria since 2003.

https://finalsiren.com/PreviousGames.asp?Team1ID=4&Team2ID=1&Go=Go

 

[John Who]

We haven't beaten Geelong in Victoria since 2003.

https://finalsiren.com/PreviousGames.asp?Team1ID=4&Team2ID=1&Go=Go

Shoot, you’re right! We won against Cats last year but that was at AO!
I’ll correct that post above later on.

 

[relapse]

My point was that nothing is really a sure thing these days and especially in modern footy. Last year we looked pretty bad and somehow pulled out a win over there!

??????

The last time we won in Geelong was back when this guy was coaching us.

 

[Carmo]

Why are people still posting like Melb are as crap now as they were earlier in the year?

They lost to WC by 15 points away, they lost to one of the most in form teams in the comp by 25 at home (the same team demolished an actual poor team by 80 points the next week) and then played us. I think they got a couple of players back between us and GWS didn't they. We played them at a neutral ground as well.

I think it was a win against a mid range team. A crap start and a good finish by us. On the end of a string of tough games. That string continues for a while yet. We also were two of our best mids down for the game. We are nowhere near as poor a team as some people are implying.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

??????

The last time we won in Geelong was back when this guy was coaching us.

 

[GROTTO]

View attachment 687094

Today the AFL would send our coach to jail for that.

That was legendary. Ayres would have copped so much crap back then.

 

[GROTTO]

These next 3 weeks are only pivotal if we want to go deep into September and possibly roll over a massive favourite on their home ground. We actually dont need to win any of them to make the 8., the win against the Demons ensured that. We dont even need to win our last 3 either, Eagles, Pies and Dogs.

From my calculations, 11 wins will be enough to fall into the 8.

Thats assuming that Port, Suns, Dons, Blues, Saints are wins. Dropping any of these will mean we need to beat one of Eagles, Pies and Dogs to make the 8.

There is two spots in the 8 that are up for grabs, 7 and 8.

Our main competitors for these two positions are: Port, Freo, Dons and Hawks. Death riding these teams is crucial.

With all that said, if we win against the one of Giants, Tigers and Cats, and win our last game of the year v Dogs in Ballarat, a home final looms.

Win two of Gianas, Tigers and Cats and R23 v Dogs, a Top 4 position is a smokey chance.

 

[skam85]

These next 3 weeks are only pivotal if we want to go deep into September and possibly roll over a massive favourite on their home ground. We actually dont need to win any of them to make the 8., the win against the Demons ensured that. We dont even need to win our last 3 either, Eagles, Pies and Dogs.

From my calculations, 11 wins will be enough to fall into the 8.

Thats assuming that Port, Suns, Dons, Blues, Saints are wins. Dropping any of these will mean we need to beat one of Eagles, Pies and Dogs to make the 8.

There is two spots in the 8 that are up for grabs, 7 and 8.

Our main competitors for these two positions are: Port, Freo, Dons and Hawks. Death riding these teams is crucial.

With all that said, if we win against the one of Giants, Tigers and Cats, and win our last game of the year v Dogs in Ballarat, a home final looms.

Win two of Gianas, Tigers and Cats and R23 v Dogs, a Top 4 position is a smokey chance.

I have us down for 13 wins.

Definitely need to grab one or two wins in the next three.

 

[GROTTO]

I have us down for 13 wins.

Definitely need to grab one or two wins in the next three.

I think we possibly can win one of Giants and Tigers.

Its unfortunate we catch the Tigers, having just a 5 day break.

Where is your 13 wins come from? I presume it involves winning one of these next three games and R23.

 

[GrommoT]

Why are people still posting like Melb are as crap now as they were earlier in the year?

They lost to WC by 15 points away, they lost to one of the most in form teams in the comp by 25 at home (the same team demolished an actual poor team by 80 points the next week) and then played us. I think they got a couple of players back between us and GWS didn't they. We played them at a neutral ground as well.

I think it was a win against a mid range team. A crap start and a good finish by us. On the end of a string of tough games. That string continues for a while yet. We also were two of our best mids down for the game. We are nowhere near as poor a team as some people are implying.

Good for tempering our team and maybe turn it into a tough one for the rest of the season.

 

[skam85]

I think we possibly can win one of Giants and Tigers.

Its unfortunate we catch the Tigers, having just a 5 day break.

Where is your 13 wins come from? I presume it involves winning one of these next three games and R23.

Giants, Port, Suns, Essendon, Carlton, St Kilda, Bulldogs

Think we're half a chance against Collingwood and Richmond too.

Ultimately win 1/3 of Coll, GWS, Rich and beat the teams we should beat.

 

[GROTTO]

Giants, Port, Suns, Essendon, Carlton, St Kilda, Bulldogs

Think we're half a chance against Collingwood and Richmond too.

Ultimately win 1/3 of Coll, GWS, Rich and beat the teams we should beat.

I had the same, with question marks over the first and last in your list, they are not locks IMO.

I have locked us in for 11 wins. Sure that could rise to one or two more easily.

Do you have us as absolute certainty to win 13 games?

Ironically I think we are a better to chance to beat Richmond, Im just pissed its off a 5 day break.

If Giants bring their A game we are screwed. I have watched a lot of their games, when on song they destroy any team.

The issue I have with us beating the Dogs is how much is riding on the game and the conditions in Ballarat will likely be cold and possibly wet and a relatively foreign ground for us. Yes we should win, but I didnt put it down as a lock. At Marvel i would have.

 

[skam85]

I had the same, with question marks over the first and last in your list, they are not locks IMO.

I have locked us in for 11 wins. Sure that could rise to one or two more easily.

Do you have us as absolute certainty to win 13 games?

Ironically I think we are a better to chance to beat Richmond, Im just pissed its off a 5 day break.

If Giants bring their A game we are screwed. I have watched a lot of their games, when on song they destroy any team.

The issue I have with us beating the Dogs is how much is riding on the game and the conditions in Ballarat will likely be cold and possibly wet and a relatively foreign ground for us. Yes we should win, but I didnt put it down as a lock. At Marvel i would have.

Not a certainty, nothing is a certainty. Who would have thought we'd lose to North and beat Melbourne in the NT?

11 minimum, 14 maximum is probably our ceiling.

I think we can win in Ballarat. Was there for the Dogs v Lions game and the Bulldogs were far from convincing.

 

[GROTTO]

Not a certainty, nothing is a certainty. Who would have thought we'd lose to North and beat Melbourne in the NT?

11 minimum, 14 maximum is probably our ceiling.

I think we can win in Ballarat. Was there for the Dogs v Lions game and the Bulldogs were far from convincing.

The 11 wins I had for the year, was IMO a lock. That took into consideration the uncertainty of losing a winnable game and wining a loseable game.

NM and Melb cancelled each other out. I had use beating NM and losing to the Dees. Interestingly, they could have easily panned out that way during those respective games.

 

[ContrarianCrow]

View attachment 687094

One of the great Crows pictures

 

[Murray2503]

They are pivotal. The end result could determine a lot of decisions at our club after that block. Playing the top 2 teams in gws and cats will tell us where we're at. I feel one of the north, hawks and wce losses could be the difference in making finals. I know for sure that we should be playing a few kids now instead of putting it off for 6 weeks.

 

[relapse]

I reckon it will take more than 11 wins to get you in the 8 this year.

Port are currently 9th, but have five winnable games

Bulldogs (H) Win
Essendon (A) Win
Sydney (H) Win
North (A) Win
Freo (H) Win

Also have the following 50/50 games against Us, GWS (H), Bris (H)

If they nab one or two of those it will put them in 12-13 wins.

At this point I suspect that there's only 9 teams who can make the 8, but we are by no means safe (especially if we only win 11 games)

 

[John Who]

I reckon it will take more than 11 wins to get you in the 8 this year.

Port are currently 9th, but have five winnable games

Bulldogs (H) Win
Essendon (A) Win
Sydney (H) Win
North (A) Win
Freo (H) Win

Also have the following 50/50 games against Us, GWS (H), Bris (H)

If they nab one or two of those it will put them in 12-13 wins.

At this point I suspect that there's only 9 teams who can make the 8, but we are by no means safe (especially if we only win 11 games)

Also, have to consider percentages as a major factor this season. 11 wins might possibly be enough BUT would need to be the best percentage amongst the teams competing for the 8th spot.

So whatever happens now, we need close losses and big wins to ensure our score percentage to creep up.

 

[Murray2503]

Today the AFL would send our coach to jail for that.

That was legendary. Ayres would have copped so much crap back then.

Looks like Darren Jarman. It's Ayres if you blow it up. I miss the days of Cornes smashing the glass and Blight leaving before the match finished. Good times.

 

[GROTTO]

Looks like Darren Jarman. It's Ayres if you blow it up. I miss the days of Cornes smashing the glass and Blight leaving before the match finished. Good times.

AFL in the 90s was like the wild wild west.

 

[John Who]

Looks like Darren Jarman. It's Ayres if you blow it up. I miss the days of Cornes smashing the glass and Blight leaving before the match finished. Good times.

I actually had similar nostalgic thoughts - miss the days when the coaches had more personality. Now it seems every coach is saying the exact same clichés every week!

 

[GROTTO]

I actually had similar nostalgic thoughts - miss the days when the coaches had more personality. Now it seems every coach is saying the exact same clichés every week!

Blight 101.

Pathetic Pittman.

Today the coach would be cooked, steamed and then boiled.

Today's player is also less likely to wear it, probably would rip the coach a new one on social media.

 

[Mike Smyth]

If we can come away with 2 wins from 3 we would have done very well.