Recommitted Tim Kelly [requested a trade to West Coast]

[iameviljez]

It was a risk that in hindsight we should have jumped at, but as a club we historically aren’t overly risky with our drafting and trading.

I don't think even Geelong saw this level of improvement coming.

 

[maccamk]

What is points value of the three picks Geelong requested?

 

[Obeanie1]

Pick 20, Pick 22 plus what appears to be around Pick 18-20 in 2019 (once academy bids are done). I believe that the Cats also enquired about Allen and Brander as steak knives.

Look, it's not a top-ten pick, but you have to deal with what you've got.

Exceptional for a player who was taken at pick 24 the year before? Definitely.
Exceptional for a player who gave Kelly's 2018 output in just one season? Not exceptional, but certainly pricey.
Exceptional for a player who is leading the 2019 AFLCA award by (I believe) 13 votes? Frankly, it's looking more like a bargain.

So three 2nds wasnt exceptional and so Wells demanded the 2020 1st instead and or a quality youngster just drafted in contract.

But the other Cats poster said the Eagles refused to pay three 2nd rounders with a 3rd coming back! That they had their chance and blew it making a terrible mistake and letting Tim down! That the Cats were being more than fair and reasonable.

Sounds like no one really knows what Wells and Geelong were really willing to trade at! But they keep acting like they do.

 

[year of the cat]

Broken record emoji

 

[iameviljez]

So three 2nds wasnt exceptional and so Wells demanded the 2020 1st instead and or a quality youngster just drafted in contract.

Technically, I believe, it was a first, a second, and a second that was offered. (p20 was a first round pick, though it's all semantics when you're talking about picks 20 and 22).

Sounds like no one really knows what Wells and Geelong were really willing to trade at!

Media consensus seems to be that they would have done it for p20, p22 and the Eagles' 2019 1st round pick for our third, but nobody knows for sure.

Glad they didn't, though.

 

[iameviljez]

What is points value of the three picks Geelong requested?

P20 is 912, P22 is 845, and future first-round pick (depending on where it lands - assuming p18 after academy bids) would be 985.

Technically, p20 + p22 should therefore be worth p6 (1751 points), but ha ha ha ha good luck trying to swap p20 + p22 for p6.

If you're throwing that future first into the ring, again technically it should be worth p2, (2517 points), but again, good luck with that.

 

[Warhorse]

P20 is 912, P22 is 845, and future first-round pick (depending on where it lands - assuming p18 after academy bids) would be 985.

Technically, p20 + p22 should therefore be worth p6 (1751 points), but ha ha ha ha good luck trying to swap p20 + p22 for p6.

If you're throwing that future first into the ring, again technically it should be worth p2, (2517 points), but again, good luck with that.

Incredibly strong draft last year. 20 and 22 couldn't even get a pick around 10

 

[Herne Hill Hammer]

I'm pretty certain that article is factually incorrect. Around the time of the Tim Kelly trade, it was widely reported that what Geelong wanted was 20, 22 and a future first round pick, rather than a future second. Here are a couple articles from October of last year that indicate as such:

PerthNow:

Kelly remains in sights of WA clubs

WEST Coast and Fremantle remain hopeful of luring Geelong midfielder Tim Kelly to WA when his contract expires at the end of next year.

www.perthnow.com.au

Triple M:

Tim Kelly Fails To Secure A Trade Home

Kelly could not be traded in the dying moments of the 2018 trade period, failing to complete his desire to return home to Western Australia.

www.triplem.com.au

The Roar:

AFL Trades Deadline Day Wrap: Dylan Shiel, Dayne Beams, Tim Kelly and more

A frenetic final thirty minutes has seen big names Dylan Shiel and Dayne Beams get to Essendon and Collingwood respectively in the 2018 AFL…

www.theroar.com.au

This is all shortly after the TK trade fell through, and I personally remember on the trade stream in the final minutes that this was the reported final offer. At no point during that time did the claim in the HS article come out - it is only six months after the fact we are finding it out.

So nothing directly quoted, just a lot of reportedlys and understoods?

 

[Herne Hill Hammer]

One of the sticking points from WCE supporters was that he may just be a 1 year flash in the pan. He isn't and he's now worth a lot more than what ever was being thrown around last trade period.

I still think it will be either Geelong or Freo and am leaning towards him staying.

 

[Scotland]

As I said champ, your offer was rejected. That’s is FACT!

Me: WC's offer was not accepted
You: WC's offer was rejected. Ha, got him!

Err, same thing fella. You can speculate over whatever offers were presented but any and all of them were rejected - that's the point, everything else is heresay. Geelong were deliberately obtuse in their public statements because they didn't want to present a scenario where they set a price that WC met then decided not to take it. No club wants that. And it's also not how trades work.

 

[Scotland]

One of the sticking points from WCE supporters was that he may just be a 1 year flash in the pan. He isn't and he's now worth a lot more than what ever was being thrown around last trade period.

I still think it will be either Geelong or Freo and am leaning towards him staying.

I keep hearing Freo like they have much more to offer than WC. Let's assume Kelly wants to go there and Geelong and Freo set about negotiating a trade.

WC have our first round pick (probably 15-20), Sydney's second (25-30), our second (30-40) plus our picks next year to play with.

What would Freo offer that is significantly better than some combo of the above?

 

[Pure_Ownage]

P20 is 912, P22 is 845, and future first-round pick (depending on where it lands - assuming p18 after academy bids) would be 985.

Technically, p20 + p22 should therefore be worth p6 (1751 points), but ha ha ha ha good luck trying to swap p20 + p22 for p6.

If you're throwing that future first into the ring, again technically it should be worth p2, (2517 points), but again, good luck with that.

0

I keep hearing Freo like they have much more to offer than WC. Let's assume Kelly wants to go there and Geelong and Freo set about negotiating a trade.

WC have our first round pick (probably 15-20), Sydney's second (25-30), our second (30-40) plus our picks next year to play with.

What would Freo offer that is significantly better than some combo of the above?

Players.

 

[Scotland]

Players.

Such as? Darcy?

Or are people holding onto a dream of Brayshaw + Cerra?

 

[Max zero]

Such as? Darcy?

Or are people holding onto a dream of Brayshaw + Cerra?

No way Freo gives a good prospect mid for Kelly. Defeats the whole purpose of the trade in the first place.

As for Darcy Sandilands is like 36-37, Lobb has injury issues they need someone to ruck surely?

 

[Wojcinski]

Such as? Darcy?

Or are people holding onto a dream of Brayshaw + Cerra?

Brayshaw, Cerra & Darcy might not be traded but all fit the profile of what most supporters probably think is an acceptable target. Fremantle will also likely have higher picks this year and next.

 

[DanWA]

Brayshaw, Cerra & Darcy might not be traded but all fit the profile of what most supporters probably think is an acceptable target. Fremantle will also likely have higher picks this year and next.

If Kelly wants to go there. Geelong don't get to choose

 

[Wojcinski]

No way Freo gives a good prospect mid for Kelly. Defeats the whole purpose of the trade in the first place.

As for Darcy Sandilands is like 36-37, Lobb has injury issues they need someone to ruck surely?

Does it defeat the purpose of the trade though? Using the AFLCA as the metric, Tim Kelly is the best player in the AFL right now. Surely a team would pay close to anything for one of the best players in the league?

 

[Wojcinski]

If Kelly wants to go there. Geelong don't get to choose

You honestly believe that if Tim Kelly picks a team Geelong doesn't get a say in what compensation they receive? LOL ok then TK to WCE for a 5th rounder then I guess. Done deal.

 

[Max zero]

Does it defeat the purpose of the trade though? Using the AFLCA as the metric, Tim Kelly is the best player in the AFL right now. Surely a team would pay close to anything for one of the best players in the league?

Yeah but Freo has real issues with a lack of mid depth. Especially an inside bull to help Fyfe. While Kelly isn't soft he does his best work on the outside.

Of course Freo would want him but he actually suits WCE list more. They really want someone like Coniglio.

Hence the rumour on WA radio that WCE's offer was significantly higher the Freos.

 

[Obeanie1]

One of the sticking points from WCE supporters was that he may just be a 1 year flash in the pan. He isn't and he's now worth a lot more than what ever was being thrown around last trade period.

I still think it will be either Geelong or Freo and am leaning towards him staying.

Sticking point? Well that has been answered hasn't it.

Eagles fans are now much more relaxed about paying multiple low picks to land Kelly this trade period as his body of work has grown. His form wasn't just a 1st year honeymoon and so his value is better defined. Not purchasing potential if a deal gets done this year as he has backed it up and improved to another level.

Eagles have better options to trade up the draft this year and the picks to do it.

And the whisper out West is the $$ offered by the Eagles is higher than Freo's. I would be astounded if the Eagles allowed Kelly to slip to Freo now there is a better understanding of his value.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Such as? Darcy?

Or are people holding onto a dream of Brayshaw + Cerra?

I dont think they will trade Brayshaw or Cerra and I doubt we will push for Darcy unless they push him out.

I was thinking more Langdon (or whatever they get for Langdon as part of a trade) Blakely and Tucker are also players we'd likely have some interest in and Freo have a stack of KPFs and we need one. So there's options nothing guaranteed but options that I can't see on WCE's list.

The problem is a lot of your young players are talented but are either under contract (which makes them harder to move) or no fit for our list needs positionally. Freo have some that are better fits for our list needs and some that are OOC. Of course WCE could try and get aggressive and try and nudge one or two contracted players towards Geelong but that isnt something your club seems to traditionally do.

 

[STPer18]

Yeah but Freo has real issues with a lack of mid depth. Especially an inside bull to help Fyfe. While Kelly isn't soft he does his best work on the outside.

Of course Freo would want him but he actually suits WCE list more. They really want someone like Coniglio.

Hence the rumour on WA radio that WCE's offer was significantly higher the Freos.

Kelly does his best work inside, he's arguably the best contested ball winner in the competition. He averages just 0.5 contested possessions less than a beast like Dangerfield, yet beats him 6.7 to 5.2 in clearances. TK is a ball winner first and foremost, definitely not an outside runner.

 

[Obeanie1]

I dont think they will trade Brayshaw or Cerra and I doubt we will push for Darcy unless they push him out.

I was thinking more Langdon (or whatever they get for Langdon as part of a trade) Blakely and Tucker are also players we'd likely have some interest in and Freo have a stack of KPFs and we need one. So there's options nothing guaranteed but options that I can't see on WCE's list.

The problem is a lot of your young players are talented but are either under contract (which makes them harder to move) or no fit for our list needs positionally. Freo have some that are better fits for our list needs and some that are OOC. Of course WCE could try and get aggressive and try and nudge one or two contracted players towards Geelong but that isnt something your club seems to traditionally do.

McCarthy could be gettable but he is so inconsistent. Out of contract too.

Cox another tall but in and out with form and injury.

Tabner, but multiple foot stress issues put a big ?? on his longevity.

Griffen Logue I really liked when drafted but again injury has slowed him down and Freo really rate him.

Who else? Darcy they need as Lobbe doesn't want to ruck full time and Sandi is turning 40 soon.

These guys are steak knives bar Logue so the real substance for a trade would need to be picks.

 

[DanWA]

You honestly believe that if Tim Kelly picks a team Geelong doesn't get a say in what compensation they receive? LOL ok then TK to WCE for a 5th rounder then I guess. Done deal.

I didn't say that, i said Geelong doesn't get to pick Freo

Tim chooses where he wants to be, it could very well be Geelong but he already turned down 800 from them so we'll see

 

[Overhang]

So three 2nds wasnt exceptional and so Wells demanded the 2020 1st instead and or a quality youngster just drafted in contract.

But the other Cats poster said the Eagles refused to pay three 2nd rounders with a 3rd coming back! That they had their chance and blew it making a terrible mistake and letting Tim down! That the Cats were being more than fair and reasonable.

Sounds like no one really knows what Wells and Geelong were really willing to trade at! But they keep acting like they do.

I believe I was the other poster you referred to and what I said

"All West Coast needed was to pull the trigger and hand over picks 20, 22 and their 2019 second-rounder in exchange for Kelly and the Cats’ 2019 third-rounder. " I quoted this from the article in the Herald Sun I linked, so it's not what I said it's what an article stated.

Then I said.

"Of course we didn't want to let him go but at the same time the club has always shown they are willing to put the players interests first (Christensen), I don't doubt they had the intentions of getting the trade done if WC would come to the party but they wouldn't. I will add that I think the whole wanting to go home but not Freo didn't help TK's predicament and probably meant the club wasn't as soft as they would usually be in these situations. "

This sounds nothing like what you have poorly paraphrased. There is no need to be disingenuous about it