2019 NBA Offseason Thread - Free Agency starts 6 p.m. ET on June 30

[fidstar]

Westbrook and Harden are both all time stat padders.

Westbrook has averaged a triple double for 3 seasons in a row and his team hasn't made it out of the first round of the playoffs. Without Durant they were never a shot regardless of who the other pieces were.

The Rockets have been better with Harden in the top 3 in MVP voting each year but have never made past the Warriors with or without Chris Paul, even with Durant out this year.

Last year Harden took 1028 3 point shots, Westbrook 411. Westbrook took 1062 2 point shots, Harden 881. Harden took 858 free throws, Westbrook 451. They were also #1 (Westbrook, 784) and #5 Harden (586) for assists. Neither are particularly good shooters. They score a lot because they shoot a lot, but they aren't top 50 for field goal or three point shooting %. If you are a 37% 3 point shooter and put up 13 a game you are going to score 4.8 of them on average. It's a 48 minute game of 24 second plays. How do you have two guys shooting it 40+ times a game (excluding 20+ free throws) and maintain a team offence?

I don't see it working. You could argue that either or both are better than Paul George or Kawhi Leonard or Steph or Klay if it made you feel good, but I would pick one of Harden/Westbrook and one of any of those other guys as a combo compared to Harden + Westbrook together. George played off Westbrook this season and scored 28 a game. Westbrook can't do that, he's not a good enough shooter. Harden maybe could, but he'd have to give up control of the ball and his off ball running this year was rubbish. If he's not going to let Chris Paul call the shots then what makes Westbrook special? It's exciting to have two explosive, high scoring guards on one team and it won't be easy to defend but I do think having both takes away from each of them given how they play.

+1 to the poorly constructed criticism of Harden.

Harden's pretty efficient on the offensive end, particularly for high usage.

Top 20 in the league in TS%

NBA Basketball Player Stats - True Shooting Percentage

Free NBA basketball player stats and splits in simple, easy to read tables. This page tracks true shooting percentage statistics.

www.teamrankings.com

 

[QuietB]

I don't see him in the 50-40-90 club.

Great scorer but he's not that great a shooter.

50-40-90 is an insanely high bar

 

[fidstar]

50-40-90 is an insanely high bar

Jessica Alba isn't good looking because she's not a Victoria Secret Model.

 

[Look2Me4Guidance]

50-40-90 is an insanely high bar

Reserved for the elite usually and even they struggle to do it more than one season in their career

 

[Look2Me4Guidance]

I’d also be somewhat surprised if the Harden and Westbrook of this season will play the same next season. Some subtle changes will be made at least initially so see how things look. No reason why Harden can’t play more off the ball. This is where I wonder if D’Antoni has the strong enough personality to keep these guys on the same page

 

[Gak Attack]

I’d also be somewhat surprised if the Harden and Westbrook of this season will play the same next season. Some subtle changes will be made at least initially so see how things look. No reason why Harden can’t play more off the ball. This is where I wonder if D’Antoni has the strong enough personality to keep these guys on the same page

You'd think both are smart enough to know they need to change how they play if they wanted to join up. The obvious answer is Harden off the ball more as the better shooter.

Some of the selling Harden short in here is laughable. Especially talk about percentages. I definitely thought last season was far too much iso Harden but that's one season in many. It seems some people are unable to differentiate between a catch and shoot guy and heavy usage guy. Yes Harden shoots a heap of threes and at a lower % than some but most of those guys would be lower if they were taking that many, just because they shoot 40% on 6 a game, doesn't mean they can hold that percentage while finding more shots. Like has been mentioned combined with the rest of his game makes him a high TS% guy. Also a guy that takes teams to playoffs.

 

[Dez!]

Harden plays incredibly ugly basketball but nobody can say it's not effective, it's the style Westbrook wishes he could play.

Dominate the ball and score with efficiency, although I don't think Hardens style can win a championship.

 

[peternorth]

Reserved for the elite usually and even they struggle to do it more than one season in their career

Malcolm Brodgon.

 

[Bostonian]

Harden plays incredibly ugly basketball but nobody can say it's not effective, it's the style Westbrook wishes he could play.

Dominate the ball and score with efficiency, although I don't think Hardens style can win a championship.

It's not ugly, it's very left handed.

As a lefty his game looks spot on to my eyes.

To right handers most left handers game looks often awkward.

It's part of this NBA culture where every left handed kid within 10 minutes of being in the NBA is told "he should switch hands for shooting".

 

[DangerSloane]

It's not ugly, it's very left handed.

As a lefty his game looks spot on to my eyes.

To right handers most left handers game looks often awkward.

It's part of this NBA culture where every left handed kid within 10 minutes of being in the NBA is told "he should switch hands for shooting".

I think its more the "try to draw fouls on every possession" ugly not being left handed.

 

[Dez!]

It's not ugly, it's very left handed.

As a lefty his game looks spot on to my eyes.

To right handers most left handers game looks often awkward.

It's part of this NBA culture where every left handed kid within 10 minutes of being in the NBA is told "he should switch hands for shooting".

No it's ugly because it's iso play, with step-back 3s and a s**t ton of FTs.

It's got nothing to do with being left handed.

He plays ugly, boring but effective basketball.

 

[Scotland]

50-40-90 is an insanely high bar

Not for a 'near generational shooter'. Harden scores a lot because he has the ball a lot. I think everyone knows this.

He's a 44% shooter from the field and 37% from 3. That's pretty good don't get me wrong, but it's not even as good as JJ Redick who has to catch and shoot most of the time, let alone actual generational shooters like Steph and Klay. Harden is 42% and 33% in the playoffs, too.

Put the ball on the floor then drive or step back shoot, and play for the foul. How does that strategy work with Westbrook running point? If Russ can get his 25-10-10 and Harden can play off ball, spread the floor and get his 25-30 without needing the ball in his hands for 20 seconds every play then Houston will be alright. But I don't see it.

 

[DangerSloane]

Not for a 'near generational shooter'. Harden scores a lot because he has the ball a lot. I think everyone knows this.

He's a 44% shooter from the field and 37% from 3. That's pretty good don't get me wrong, but it's not even as good as JJ Redick who has to catch and shoot most of the time, let alone actual generational shooters like Steph and Klay. Harden is 42% and 33% in the playoffs, too.

Put the ball on the floor then drive or step back shoot, and play for the foul. How does that strategy work with Westbrook running point? If Russ can get his 25-10-10 and Harden can play off ball, spread the floor and get his 25-30 without needing the ball in his hands for 20 seconds every play then Houston will be alright. But I don't see it.

Catch and shoot is a lot easier than taking step back or transition 3s often while attracting more than single defensive coverage.
Kudos to Redick but all he does is shoot 3s as catch and shoot.

You're comparing apples and oranges.

 

[Scotland]

Catch and shoot is a lot easier than taking step back or transition 3s often while attracting more than single defensive coverage.
Kudos to Redick but all he does is shoot 3s as catch and shoot.

You're comparing apples and oranges.

Catch and shoot isn't easy. Watch how much work Curry and Klay do off ball to try and get open shots and avoid 2 on 1s.

 

[Gak Attack]

Catch and shoot isn't easy. Watch how much work Curry and Klay do off ball to try and get open shots and avoid 2 on 1s.

Catch and shoot is a lot easier than contested iso shots. Especially if that is your only offensive role. The off the ball work is exactly why players who create their own shot are so valuable, especially if they can hit at a decent clip from three doing so like Harden. One relies on multiple cuts, screens and a good pass to the hopefully open shooter with the risk of a good read by the D, the other is the guy already with the ball getting it done himself, hence why it is valuable.

 

[AngryRanga]

Not for a 'near generational shooter'. Harden scores a lot because he has the ball a lot. I think everyone knows this.

He's a 44% shooter from the field and 37% from 3. That's pretty good don't get me wrong, but it's not even as good as JJ Redick who has to catch and shoot most of the time, let alone actual generational shooters like Steph and Klay. Harden is 42% and 33% in the playoffs, too.

Put the ball on the floor then drive or step back shoot, and play for the foul. How does that strategy work with Westbrook running point? If Russ can get his 25-10-10 and Harden can play off ball, spread the floor and get his 25-30 without needing the ball in his hands for 20 seconds every play then Houston will be alright. But I don't see it.

FG% more than anything else articulates shot diet, it's pretty useless for judging efficiency in the three-point era.

You seem to think that because Kyle Korver shoots 43% from 3, he should just take 15 a game and score 19 points. But that isn't really how this works. Creating unassisted three pointers is potentially the most valuable skill in the league. Getting them to go at above league average %, at a ridiculous volume, is a ridiculous talent, because Harden is a ridiculously good shooter.

 

[Bostonian]

No it's ugly because it's iso play, with step-back 3s and a s**t ton of FTs.

It's got nothing to do with being left handed.

He plays ugly, boring but effective basketball.

How should he play then to make it look "pretty"?

 

[fidstar]

Not for a 'near generational shooter'. Harden scores a lot because he has the ball a lot. I think everyone knows this.

He's a 44% shooter from the field and 37% from 3. That's pretty good don't get me wrong, but it's not even as good as JJ Redick who has to catch and shoot most of the time, let alone actual generational shooters like Steph and Klay. Harden is 42% and 33% in the playoffs, too.

Put the ball on the floor then drive or step back shoot, and play for the foul. How does that strategy work with Westbrook running point? If Russ can get his 25-10-10 and Harden can play off ball, spread the floor and get his 25-30 without needing the ball in his hands for 20 seconds every play then Houston will be alright. But I don't see it.

It's weird to see so many people sticking up for Harden, including me!

44% is skewed because he shoots so many threes. He was 53% from 2 last year. For perspective MJ shot 51% from 2 for his career.

He shoots 88% from the line.

Both of those are elite.

37% from 3 is also very good for his shot selection.

And, of course, catch and shoot is easier. There's a reason offenses are run to create them over iso 1 on 1.

 

[DangerSloane]

Catch and shoot isn't easy. Watch how much work Curry and Klay do off ball to try and get open shots and avoid 2 on 1s.

Catch and shoot when you're Steph Curry is a lot harder than when you're the 3rd or 4th option on the team.
Regardless, its much easier to be set and catch and shoot, compared with making your own shot.

not one person with knowledge would argue catch and shoot is harder than iso

 

[Scotland]

2P% is a bit of a silly stat. Harden shot 53%, Ben Simmons 57%. I think we all know who the better shooter is. It's a stat dominated by PFs and Cs who play close to the ring. For guards Harden was about 12th or 13th which is still very good. The best 2P shooter in the NBA is Durant. He is a marksman and tall enough to shoot over pretty much anyone. How many of Harden's two pointers were lay ups and dunks? He's excellent at driving to the bucket but if you take him away from being the primary ball handler those opportunities are fewer.

Catch and shoot when you're Steph Curry is a lot harder than when you're the 3rd or 4th option on the team.
Regardless, its much easier to be set and catch and shoot, compared with making your own shot.

not one person with knowledge would argue catch and shoot is harder than iso

Is Harden going to suddenly become the 3rd or 4th option at the Rockets? Eric Gordon and PJ Tucker get easier shots because the defence focuses elsewhere. Give the ball to Steph and teams don't just leave Klay alone in the corner, even with Durant in the 5. They leave (left) Iguodala or Livingston or whoever as the free player. Give the ball to Russell and teams are still going to defend Harden because he's a great player... If he is off ball then he is going to have to work hard for his shots. We're talking about a guy who is used to having the ball in his hands every play and whose off ball running was poor when Chris Paul was there. Whatever happens he's not going to get an 'easy' catch and shoot gig standing in the corner with no defender on him.

 

[Gak Attack]

2P% is a bit of a silly stat. Harden shot 53%, Ben Simmons 57%. I think we all know who the better shooter is. It's a stat dominated by PFs and Cs who play close to the ring. For guards Harden was about 12th or 13th which is still very good. The best 2P shooter in the NBA is Durant. He is a marksman and tall enough to shoot over pretty much anyone. How many of Harden's two pointers were lay ups and dunks? He's excellent at driving to the bucket but if you take him away from being the primary ball handler those opportunities are fewer.



Is Harden going to suddenly become the 3rd or 4th option at the Rockets? Eric Gordon and PJ Tucker get easier shots because the defence focuses elsewhere. Give the ball to Steph and teams don't just leave Klay alone in the corner, even with Durant in the 5. They leave (left) Iguodala or Livingston or whoever as the free player. Give the ball to Russell and teams are still going to defend Harden because he's a great player... If he is off ball then he is going to have to work hard for his shots. We're talking about a guy who is used to having the ball in his hands every play and whose off ball running was poor when Chris Paul was there. Whatever happens he's not going to get an 'easy' catch and shoot gig standing in the corner with no defender on him.

If teams are going to guard Harden hard off the ball then that's exactly what Houston want. You're seriously selling Russ short if you'd think Rockets wouldn't be happy with Harden drawing a defender out and Russ going 1 on 1 with potentially a pnr with Capela.

 

[fidstar]

Also the 50/40/90 club is harder to do today because it's skewed for today's number of 3s.

For instance Steph Curry didn't make the club in 2017 when he shot 49.5/42.3/92.1

Larry Bird made it in 88 when he shot 52.7/41.4/91.6

Yet Steph shot 59.5% from 2 and Bird shot 54.6.

So, Steph shot better than Bird from 2s, 3s and the free throw line, yet Bird is part of the club.

The club should really be 55/40/90, with the 55 being from 2.

That takes out the fact the 80/90s guys shot so few 3s.

 

[Scotland]

If teams are going to guard Harden hard off the ball then that's exactly what Houston want. You're seriously selling Russ short if you'd think Rockets wouldn't be happy with Harden drawing a defender out and Russ going 1 on 1 with potentially a pnr with Capela.

How is it selling Russ short? He's great at what he does, just like Harden. Westbrook played that role with Adams at OKC and had Paul George drawing a defender out.

 

[fidstar]

So you think that the spread on the floor with Houston is the same as OKC?

 

[Gak Attack]

How is it selling Russ short? He's great at what he does, just like Harden. Westbrook played that role with Adams at OKC and had Paul George drawing a defender out.

I'm not really sure what point you're trying to make. You say would Harden be happy being guarded off the ball for potential catch and shoots, I pointed out in doing so it benefits Houston which means it's unlikely to be an option defense's use. OKC didn't have the shooters consistently to make it effecient, Simmons and Lowe talk about it on their latest podcast. Also if you guard him hard and he gets the ball he won't be complaining, there's a reason defense's play in unique ways so they're not right up on him.