Roast IF it isn't biased or ncompetent..... THEN it must be inciteful media coverage part II

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I think the champion data ratings showcase how statistical analysis isn't really as applicable to Aussie rules as it is to other sports. The whole thing rests on how predictable a sport is i.e. how easy it is to estimate what will happen next in terms of individual parts, whether a player will kick well in any given kick, based on previous history. The accuracy depends on how many moving parts there are in a sport - Basketball and ours are harder than, say, Baseball, because there's so many more variables. When it comes to Aussie rules, I reckon ours is one of the most chaotic on the planet.

That's why CD's ranking are so ****ed. They reduce every element of the sport down to a digit, and build up to rating players, groups of players and subsequently teams based on those initial axioms. It's how statistics works, but when the interpretation is quite difficult (i.e. how they qualify what counts as a tackle), then you get bizarre results like the ones released a couple days ago.
 

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I think the champion data ratings showcase how statistical analysis isn't really as applicable to Aussie rules as it is to other sports. The whole thing rests on how predictable a sport is i.e. how easy it is to estimate what will happen next in terms of individual parts, whether a player will kick well in any given kick, based on previous history. The accuracy depends on how many moving parts there are in a sport - Basketball and ours are harder than, say, Baseball, because there's so many more variables. When it comes to Aussie rules, I reckon ours is one of the most chaotic on the planet.

That's why CD's ranking are so f’ed. They reduce every element of the sport down to a digit, and build up to rating players, groups of players and subsequently teams based on those initial axioms. It's how statistics works, but when the interpretation is quite difficult (i.e. how they qualify what counts as a tackle), then you get bizarre results like the ones released a couple days ago.
That's my problem with this level of statistical analysis as well.

The thing is however accurate and detailed the statkeeping is there has to be some part human opinion to the value of each stats if they are to be ranked against each other. For example is a defender more 'elite' if they intercept more but have a lower effective tackle count than another defender? And that's just scraping the surface of what CD factor into these calculations
 
I think the champion data ratings showcase how statistical analysis isn't really as applicable to Aussie rules as it is to other sports. The whole thing rests on how predictable a sport is i.e. how easy it is to estimate what will happen next in terms of individual parts, whether a player will kick well in any given kick, based on previous history. The accuracy depends on how many moving parts there are in a sport - Basketball and ours are harder than, say, Baseball, because there's so many more variables. When it comes to Aussie rules, I reckon ours is one of the most chaotic on the planet.

That's why CD's ranking are so f’ed. They reduce every element of the sport down to a digit, and build up to rating players, groups of players and subsequently teams based on those initial axioms. It's how statistics works, but when the interpretation is quite difficult (i.e. how they qualify what counts as a tackle), then you get bizarre results like the ones released a couple days ago.

I remember when we won the flag there was an article about Champion Data's 'Eagle problem' because they couldn't figure out how we were successful based on their data models.

Don't know if they have sorted it out since.
 
Why do people say our premiership window is narrowing? Yes NN,Jk,Hurn,Jetta are getting on but Williams,OAllen and Brander are doing a fairly lengthy apprenticeship and will form a pretty formidable spine.Petrol,Cameron,Ryan and maybe Rioli are young as is Barass.Our recruiting has been outstanding both from a premiership view and from a future point of view.Our last two first picks are both mids and hopefully will start to replace the Shueys.I feel sorry..not.. for all those supporters who jumped ship when the purple scum came along.Years and years in the wilderness; years spent developing an inferiority complex and learning to hate our superiority.WCE; we are the greatest!! LG
I try to keep my enthusiasm and arrogance in perspective, but I wouldn't say the window is narrowing yet?
I reckon the window is wide open and banging in the breeze!?
Arguably we should have more result for the years 2015 to 2020, but if we snag another one before say, 2022, it's all good...and don't forget, according to history-or someone's stats?-or the tea lady at perth central railways- we're due another big mug this season? (and also if we win, the AFL model gets rejigged and rigged to make it harder to win again, to keep it equalised and fair?...unless you're Richmond or Collingwood of course!)...or unless you're such a good team/coaches/club, that you can break the shackles of any rigging and jigging that is enforced on you?
 
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I’d like to read that article if you or anybody else can find it

Not sure if it was a dedicated article but mentioned in passing I read somewhere. About how the Eagle's successful gameplan was unable to be measured by the current data models at the time. Basically they didn't quite know how Simpson did it.


High possession, slow play and non dominate midfield really does not look like a plan for success on paper.
 
Basil cocking up our AFLW calling something chronic.

Miscalling players.

Said Swanson kicked our first goal last week.

Probably just read that a leader kicked the goal and then looked up who our captain was.
 
Basil cocking up our AFLW calling something chronic.

Miscalling players.

Said Swanson kicked our first goal last week.

Probably just read that a leader kicked the goal and then looked up who our captain was.
Just somehow called Perera Houghton..
 

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Former Docker Michael Barlow believes West Coast’s weakness in 2020 lies on their wings


I realise we have lost Masto, who was a great user of the footy when given acres of time and space, but I wouldn't say that our wings are a weakness. Jetta often pushes up on the wing to deliver some scything passes. And to say Gaff is not a great ball user? Come on... I realise he has no right boot but on his left he is up there with our best.
 
Former Docker Michael Barlow believes West Coast’s weakness in 2020 lies on their wings

Excuse me if I dont put much stock in the gameday analysis of a potato who got delisted by Freo of all clubs.

Wikipedia says he's been an assistant coach for Werribee since 2019, so he's been working in an analytical role for all of 5 minutes and suddenly he's football's Dr House?

Jog on, Michael.
 
Former Docker Michael Barlow believes West Coast’s weakness in 2020 lies on their wings


I realise we have lost Masto, who was a great user of the footy when given acres of time and space, but I wouldn't say that our wings are a weakness. Jetta often pushes up on the wing to deliver some scything passes. And to say Gaff is not a great ball user? Come on... I realise he has no right boot but on his left he is up there with our best.


Gaff's kicking efficiency is based on him playing more as an inside mid the last 2 years. With Kelly into the side Gaff should spend more time out side, and lo and behold his kicking efficiency will also improve.
 
I haven't read the article as I can't be bothered but our wings probably would be the weakest link in our team at the moment. I mean if you are going to point at something that is weaker than the rest of the team, it would have to be the wings because we have retired Masten and haven't as yet solidified the new wing (even if it may be Brander). As good as Gaff is, he is also death by 1000 cuts damaging and not goal kicking/ X factor damaging.

I think it's a fair call to say our wings are at least the most questionable part of the team because one is up for grabs.
 
Former Docker Michael Barlow believes West Coast’s weakness in 2020 lies on their wings


I realise we have lost Masto, who was a great user of the footy when given acres of time and space, but I wouldn't say that our wings are a weakness. Jetta often pushes up on the wing to deliver some scything passes. And to say Gaff is not a great ball user? Come on... I realise he has no right boot but on his left he is up there with our best.

Where do you think our weakness is?
 
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