Toast 11 games down and Port are second on the ladder…

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Todays game is totally different to the game I was brought up watching.
It used to be about big forwards kicking 8 goals a game playing full forward or CHF.
You had back pocket players that used to stand the resting rover making sure he didn’t kick a goal.
Fast forward 40 years and it all comes down to how good your midfield is.
Yes you still need something up forward and somebody who reads the play well down back but basically you win games on how good your midfield performs.
Our midfield is scary good this year with the inclusion of JHF and the improvement in Butters and Rozee.
We have a makeshift forward line and a hard trying defence for most of our wins but that midfield is top shelf and second to none.
Basically, soccer had a similar transformation.
 
Basically, soccer had a similar transformation.
Rugby too.

Sports moved from 1 on 1's to zonal defences and it shifted everything. Made the centre the main concentration to break them down.
 

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And in todays game you don’t even have to know how to kick to make a good living out of it.

I'd argue the average kick is better than they were 20 years ago, they're just always kicking under pressure now in gameplans based around prioritising quick ball movement. Goalkicking averages are barely different, and that difference can mostly be put down to defensive setups forcing teams to take more shots from low percentage positions.
 
Three word analysis

Saved Ken’s job

What’s gone right

While some suspected the Power would put the pieces back together, after sliding from consecutive top-two finishes to 11th in 2022, few thought they’d be back in the mix for a home qualifying final. Yet after eight straight wins – they should set the club record with nine this weekend against Hawthorn – they sit outright second, and Ken Hinkley’s seat is ice-cold. The respected coach came into this season effectively with a ‘Grand Final or bust’ mentality hanging over him, with the club clearly stating it wouldn’t negotiate until August. Well, they’re at least in the mix, and it’d be cruel to sack him after a top four season; if anything Hinkley has simply raised his value in case he chooses to leave for somewhere like Gold Coast or Richmond. On the field, it’s been more about individual brilliance getting them over the line in five close games, with Zak Butters (leading the coaches votes) and Connor Rozee now genuine A-grade midfielders, while Aliir Aliir is back to his best. We saw in 2020 and 2021 this list could contend, but it’s a slightly different core of younger superstar talent, which suggests they’re going to stay up for a few years yet.

What’s gone wrong

It was only two months ago Warren Tredrea was declaring Hinkley’s job was untenable – and to be fair to the Power great, it was coming off two woeful losses to Collingwood and Adelaide (with the latter seeming much worse at the time). It took a literal goalline stand to start this winning streak and, as this team knows well, performance in close games can be inconsistent – they’re 5-0 in games decided by two goals or less this year, after going 2-7 in them last season. That good fortunate is reflected in their percentage, which is pedestrian for a top-two side, and suggests they’re not actually the second-best team in the AFL … but they know as much as anyone how valuable home qualifying finals can be. It’s just that preliminary finals have been an issue for them under Hinkley, and so we won’t know if they’ve truly taken the step forward fans have been begging for until mid-September.

Contract and trade priorities

They could be busy in the trade period once again, understanding their list isn’t perfect, with flaws at both ends of the ground. Mitch Georgiades may not play again for the club, having suffered a season-ending ACL rupture and with continued chatter around the West Aussie returning home. They made a play for Geelong’s Esava Ratugolea last year, who has since moved into defence; if they tried again, he could help at whichever end was most needy. That’s probably still down back, where Aliir Aliir needs help, and the Power have been linked to one of the top free agents on the market in North Melbourne’s Ben McKay – that’d make all the sense in the world since they wouldn’t necessarily have to trade a pick for him, and they don’t own their first-rounder. They could get one back if they allow Miles Bergman to head home to Victoria, where multiple clubs are circling the former No. 14 pick

 
Todays game is totally different to the game I was brought up watching.
It used to be about big forwards kicking 8 goals a game playing full forward or CHF.
You had back pocket players that used to stand the resting rover making sure he didn’t kick a goal.
Fast forward 40 years and it all comes down to how good your midfield is.
Yes you still need something up forward and somebody who reads the play well down back but basically you win games on how good your midfield performs.
Our midfield is scary good this year with the inclusion of JHF and the improvement in Butters and Rozee.
We have a makeshift forward line and a hard trying defence for most of our wins but that midfield is top shelf and second to none.
Couldn't agree more. At the game on the weekend I never doubted we'd lose despite the way the game played out because I now have full faith that our midfield is just better.

I'm firmly of the view that we have the best pure midfield in the comp and that Butters, Rozee, JHF all know how to lift to get the job done. This is why we win close games now, because they lift when required and can all be match winners. Add Wines, Boak, Drew to that mix and we have incredible depth that prevents other teams getting a big run on through the middle.

Our team definitely has it's weaknesses, and I suspect we'll definitely struggle against Collingwood since their strength in wingmen is one of our weaknesses, but for the most part our midfields good enough to beat any side.
 
Currently Port Adelaide is 10th in the league for goal kicking accuracy, with a percentage of 22.47% per inside 50. Geelong (26.66%), Melbourne (26.22%), Adelaide (25.45%), Brisbane (25.08%) and Essendon (25.00%) all convert 4 or less inside 50s to a goal.

If Port went at the same conversion rate as some of those sides, say 25.04%, we would have kicked another 16 goals in 11 matches, or 80 more points. When you consider that we score 13.5 points on average per game while Brisbane scores 12.1, those extra 1.4 goals we leave on the table every week are literally the only reason why people think Brisbane is a better placed prospect than we are.

It's not that we aren't creating chances, it's just that we aren't finishing them off as cleanly as other sides.
 
Currently Port Adelaide is 10th in the league for goal kicking accuracy, with a percentage of 22.47% per inside 50. Geelong (26.66%), Melbourne (26.22%), Adelaide (25.45%), Brisbane (25.08%) and Essendon (25.00%) all convert 4 or less inside 50s to a goal.

If Port went at the same conversion rate as some of those sides, say 25.04%, we would have kicked another 16 goals in 11 matches, or 80 more points. When you consider that we score 13.5 points on average per game while Brisbane scores 12.1, those extra 1.4 goals we leave on the table every week are literally the only reason why people think Brisbane is a better placed prospect than we are.

It's not that we aren't creating chances, it's just that we aren't finishing them off as cleanly as other sides.
Unfortunately i'm not sure that will change over the second half of the year. The only players i have some semblance of faith in their set shot ability is Marshall,DBJ and Butters. The first is struggling to get on the park and 1 more head knock could be done for the season, the other 2 are hardly inside 50 targets.

I know media talk about our ability to win close games, but apart from the Sydney one, none of the others really had any right to be close to begin with.
 

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Three word analysis

Saved Ken’s job

What’s gone right

While some suspected the Power would put the pieces back together, after sliding from consecutive top-two finishes to 11th in 2022, few thought they’d be back in the mix for a home qualifying final. Yet after eight straight wins – they should set the club record with nine this weekend against Hawthorn – they sit outright second, and Ken Hinkley’s seat is ice-cold. The respected coach came into this season effectively with a ‘Grand Final or bust’ mentality hanging over him, with the club clearly stating it wouldn’t negotiate until August. Well, they’re at least in the mix, and it’d be cruel to sack him after a top four season; if anything Hinkley has simply raised his value in case he chooses to leave for somewhere like Gold Coast or Richmond. On the field, it’s been more about individual brilliance getting them over the line in five close games, with Zak Butters (leading the coaches votes) and Connor Rozee now genuine A-grade midfielders, while Aliir Aliir is back to his best. We saw in 2020 and 2021 this list could contend, but it’s a slightly different core of younger superstar talent, which suggests they’re going to stay up for a few years yet.

What’s gone wrong

It was only two months ago Warren Tredrea was declaring Hinkley’s job was untenable – and to be fair to the Power great, it was coming off two woeful losses to Collingwood and Adelaide (with the latter seeming much worse at the time). It took a literal goalline stand to start this winning streak and, as this team knows well, performance in close games can be inconsistent – they’re 5-0 in games decided by two goals or less this year, after going 2-7 in them last season. That good fortunate is reflected in their percentage, which is pedestrian for a top-two side, and suggests they’re not actually the second-best team in the AFL … but they know as much as anyone how valuable home qualifying finals can be. It’s just that preliminary finals have been an issue for them under Hinkley, and so we won’t know if they’ve truly taken the step forward fans have been begging for until mid-September.

Contract and trade priorities

They could be busy in the trade period once again, understanding their list isn’t perfect, with flaws at both ends of the ground. Mitch Georgiades may not play again for the club, having suffered a season-ending ACL rupture and with continued chatter around the West Aussie returning home. They made a play for Geelong’s Esava Ratugolea last year, who has since moved into defence; if they tried again, he could help at whichever end was most needy. That’s probably still down back, where Aliir Aliir needs help, and the Power have been linked to one of the top free agents on the market in North Melbourne’s Ben McKay – that’d make all the sense in the world since they wouldn’t necessarily have to trade a pick for him, and they don’t own their first-rounder. They could get one back if they allow Miles Bergman to head home to Victoria, where multiple clubs are circling the former No. 14 pick

This just reminded me that Geelong ****ed us over regarding Esava Ratugolea and how him merely existing down back would be an even bigger upgrade for us. Maybe we don't even lose the Showdown with an actual key back other than Aliir.
 
That good fortunate is reflected in their percentage, which is pedestrian for a top-two side, and suggests they’re not actually the second-best team in the AFL …

Winning streaks always have some bit of luck, but our percentage is worrisome. We may have been too lucky so far. Good teams actually ARE “flat-track bullies” who hardly lose big; thus, they have big percentages.

To be fair, we’ve had 3 big wins: Lions (175%), Eagles (158%), North (208%). However, our % has been harmed by both of our losses: Pies (47%), WL (74%).

The main difference between our record and a .500 season is that we’ve won all “coin-toss” games so far: Swans (+2), Saints (+7), Bombers (+5), Dees (+4), Tigers (+10).

Is it sustainable? It may be, but unlikely. It is better to avoid those games by winning with at least a >12-point margin. Outside of our big wins, we did it only once (Dogs).

RussellEbertHandball
 
Winning streaks always have some bit of luck, but our percentage is worrisome. We may have been too lucky so far. Good teams actually ARE “flat-track bullies” who hardly lose big; thus, they have big percentages.

To be fair, we’ve had 3 big wins: Lions (175%), Eagles (158%), North (208%). However, our % has been harmed by both of our losses: Pies (47%), WL (74%).

The main difference between our record and a .500 season is that we’ve won all “coin-toss” games so far: Swans (+2), Saints (+7), Bombers (+5), Dees (+4), Tigers (+10).

Is it sustainable? It may be, but unlikely. It is better to avoid those games by winning with at least a >12-point margin. Outside of our big wins, we did it only once (Dogs).

RussellEbertHandball

If you dig deeper, we dominated the Bombers, Demons and Tigers and should've won by more. The Swans and Saints games were the coin flips they look. So maybe we should on balance be an 8-3 team instead of 9-2.
 
If you dig deeper, we dominated the Bombers, Demons and Tigers and should've won by more. The Swans and Saints games were the coin flips they look. So maybe we should on balance be an 8-3 team instead of 9-2.
True. But on the other hand it also shows an issue. We have been constantly turning games that should be comfortable wins into coin-tosses. It’s not good.
 
True. But on the other hand it also shows an issue. We have been constantly turning games that should be comfortable wins into coin-tosses. It’s not good.
True, but we've been doing it with a makeshift forwardline in the middle of the season and are still getting the wins. That part is good, so long as our forwards hit their peak at the right time.

Scoring reliability is definitely the concern come September, but our forward structure may look very different. We'll need Dixon and Marshall fully fit and in form at the back end of the season, but we'll also need to hope Rioli fires when it counts.
 
Enjoyable interview with Burton about why and how the team has improved, about Bassett and Cornes, how the team are playing as a team and helping each other out, living with Georgiadis etc.


Sounds like great work from Chad Cornes - feels like he is doing everything to inspire confidence in our forwards, which is what they've needed over the last few years.

For all the talk about Carr its clear the whole box is just functioning a lot better this year.
 

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