Toast 11 games down and Port are second on the ladder…

[1954]

We have obviously been here before under kern's tenure, but dare I say it these come from behind strong last qtr efforts are reminiscent of the old never say die Port Adelaide many of us grew up idolising.
The midfield is definitely good enough, and our best forward set up puts us in the mix as well but I believe there are 3 other very important ingredients to a hopefully successful finals campaign.

1. Aliir will need to remain fit and in form
2. see above for Lycett
3. and arguably not least, captain or not the tough decision HAS to be made about Jonas, selecting him on what are usually fast decks in the finals could put the defence as a unit under too much unnecessary pressure!

 

[Adz2332]

Far and away ahead of my expectations.

Especially when you list the outs and games missed by players

 

[PJ Power]

I'm really looking forward to seeing Duursma and Sinn on the wings, working around Butters, Rozee, JHF, Wines and Drew in the centre, with Bergman, Jones, Williams and Houston all playing behind the ball. This could realistically be the case after the Bye.

 

[philreich]

One from left field - have we relied on Robbie Gray

9

Robbie Gray

Age

36

Ht

183cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

19.9

5star

K

9.8

4star

HB

10.1

5star

M

3.5

4star

T

3.2

5star

G

1.4

5star

D

13.3

3star

K

6.0

2star

HB

7.3

4star

M

2.4

3star

T

2.6

4star

G

0.6

4star

D

10.4

3star

K

6.6

3star

HB

3.8

3star

M

3.6

4star

T

1.4

4star

G

1.4

5star

too much in recent years? Now he's no longer there, other guys have stepped up to fill the void.

 

[PJ Power]

One from left field - have we relied on Robbie Gray too much in recent years? Now he's no longer there, other guys have stepped up to fill the void.

We've certainly relied on, and targeted Dixon too much.
I love that we're getting it done with a "no-name" forward line, which of course is achievable because we also have mids and defenders in great form.

We would still benefit from having at least one mercurial small forward who could regularly make something happen out of nothing.

 

[zorbacles]

We would still benefit from having at least one mercurial small forward who could regularly make something happen out of nothing.

Which is what Rioli was supposed to be, but it defintitely hasnt worked out that way.

 

[Ford Fairlane]

I'm really looking forward to seeing Duursma and Sinn on the wings, working around Butters, Rozee, JHF, Wines and Drew in the centre, with Bergman, Jones, Williams and Houston all playing behind the ball. This could realistically be the case after the Bye.

Don't forget Hugh Jackson who has been lighting up our snafl side for a month now.

 

[ElectricG]

Compared with the Crows I think we lack a bit of ‘x factor’ up forward. We need Rioli to find form in time for finals.

 

[Janus]

In an 18 team comp, every team will on average have 5.55 players in the top 100 for every statistical category. It doesn't seem like these particular statistics mean a lot at all given some of the better teams in the comp are below that number. The Kangaroos for example have 7 players in the top 100 for contested possessions.

It explains why certain teams struggle and certain teams thrive.

St Kilda have 6 players in the top 100 for contested possessions and 6 in the top 100 for ground ball gets. As you said, this is about the average for an 18 team competition.

Western Bulldogs have 7 players in the top 100 for contested possessions and 7 in the top 100 for ground ball gets. These guys should be challenging for a top four spot.

Essendon have 5 players in the top 100 for contested possession but 7 in the top 100 for ground ball gets. This means that they still have a problem around the contest but they’ve compensated for this by maintaining shape around the ball and getting to the loose ball a lot quicker.

Fremantle have 6 players in the top 100 for contested possession but only 3 in the top 100 for ground ball gets. If you want to know why Adelaide is in the eight right now and Fremantle isn’t, look at how they hunt the ball.

Richmond have 6 players in the top 100 for contested possessions and 6 players in the top 100 for ground ball gets. Hence why they can challenge top sides the same way St Kilda can.

Sydney have 5 in the top 100 for contested possession and 6 in the top 100 for ground ball gets. This tells us that it isn’t effort or method that is the issue with Sydney, it’s who they have available.

Hawthorn have 5 in the top 100 for contested possession and 5 in the top 100 for ground ball gets. Again, it’s not effort or method with Hawthorn, but just quality of players. It’s also how Adelaide with only three players in each struggled against them.

Why does Brisbane struggle away from home? Because there’s too much given to too few to do. With Melbourne, if you cut off their rucks at the source, they are going to struggle. Adelaide has three prime movers - Laird, Dawson and Sloane. That works against Brisbane who have four, but they will struggle against the Bulldogs or Collingwood who have 7.

Geelong is struggling right now because they don’t have a number of players to help them execute for an entire game.

As for North - yeah they have 7 listed in the top 100 for contested possessions, but only 4 in the top 100 for ground ball gets…and there are only 3 players who are listed in both categories. You have to look at it holistically.

My point is that we aren’t at the level yet. But we are getting there.

 

[TazD]

Compared with the Crows I think we lack a bit of ‘x factor’ up forward.

How can you say this when this stud is prowling f50?

 

[El_Scorcho]

It explains why certain teams struggle and certain teams thrive.

I just don't think the correlation is that strong for these metrics.

We're the form team of the competition and we have a below AFL average contested possession differential. Groundball gets correlates slightly higher but we only have 1.9 more ground ball gets a game than our opponents and several poor teams are ahead of us on that metric.

Gold Coast, St Kilda and Hawthorn beat us comfortably in both CP differential and GBG differential.

I think the closest metric to the form ladder is probably I50s, which explains why our entire gameplan for years has been based on racking up I50s at all costs. The key is not getting so invested in moneyball stats that you forget why those stats might correlate with winning.

 

[EskimoPAFC]

Which is what Rioli was supposed to be, but it defintitely hasnt worked out that way.

Yet

 

[Duckimus Prime]

I just don't think the correlation is that strong for these metrics.

We're the form team of the competition and we have a below AFL average contested possession differential. Groundball gets correlates slightly higher but we only have 1.9 more ground ball gets a game than our opponents and several poor teams are ahead of us on that metric.

Gold Coast, St Kilda and Hawthorn beat us comfortably in both CP differential and GBG differential.

I think the closest metric to the form ladder is probably I50s, which explains why our entire gameplan for years has been based on racking up I50s at all costs. The key is not getting so invested in moneyball stats that you forget why those stats might correlate with winning.

Its always an issue with just looking at the stats in isolation. Win the initial contested possession, and then spread well results in not many contested possessions. Kicking the ball to a teammate and holding marks results in a low number of ground ball gets.

And defensively, if you lose the initial contested possesions, then don't allow the opposition an easy clearance they can end up with multiple contested possessions, while it may take just 1 for your team to get the clearance away.

 

[Peninsula Boy]

I'm a very optimistic person at the best of times and I am squinting hard at the sun and what I am seeing is that we are two years away from starting our peak years with this squad built around the 2018 draft of Rozee, Butters and Duursma.

However, this year, we could jag the premiership a la Hawthorn 2008 and get one early as the juggernaut teams are not quite what they use to be and the up and up teams are not super ready either. Pies and Cow I worried that their game style will nullify us. Brisbane is up there. St Kilda and Freo are coming.

 

[AflNerd22]

I'm really looking forward to seeing Duursma and Sinn on the wings, working around Butters, Rozee, JHF, Wines and Drew in the centre, with Bergman, Jones, Williams and Houston all playing behind the ball. This could realistically be the case after the Bye.

Are you insisting playing Sinn over boak. I get we need to get games into young kids, but we have essendon at the MCG after the bye, I get they aren't in good form essendon but we saw what they could to against the lions in the first half without parish. The only game I could see us playing Sinn in is this one, but only if boak doesn't get up. And after this we have, the bulldogs at marvel, and the cats at home after a 6 day break, when they are fresh of the bye. I could definitly see this in a few years. Also duursma is still out for 5-7 weeks, but I also wouldn't want to rush him back incase he is off after a long break from the team.

 

[Sir Watchalot]

Our percentage would probably be a lot better if we kicked straight. How many games should we have won by more due to inaccuracy.

Am I wrong to say there's almost never a game where that argument couldn't be applied to the opposition too?

 

[Chewy316]

Compared with the Crows I think we lack a bit of ‘x factor’ up forward. We need Rioli to find form in time for finals.

Big if, but IF Fantasia can get healthy, he could be that spark in the forward line to create opportunistic goals. His 2021 qualifying final performance against Geelong was superb. I think Rioli will come good as the season goes on. Provided late August/early September isn't an absolute wet bog he should be fine.

Credit to the entire club for the results so far this season. They're playing good footy - it's the most I've enjoyed a season since 2020. Just gotta see now where things go at the pointy end of this year. But so far, on the face of it, going to the footy this season hasn't been so much a chore but rather an enjoying time.

 

[JimmyBC]

Big if, but IF Fantasia can get healthy, he could be that spark in the forward line to create opportunistic goals. His 2021 qualifying final performance against Geelong was superb. I think Rioli will come good as the season goes on. Provided late August/early September isn't an absolute wet bog he should be fine.

Credit to the entire club for the results so far this season. They're playing good footy - it's the most I've enjoyed a season since 2020. Just gotta see now where things go at the pointy end of this year. But so far, on the face of it, going to the footy this season hasn't been so much a chore but rather an enjoying time.

I'm starting to think it's a lost cause with Fantasia, I can see him and Charlie for that matter weakening our defensive forward half play. I think it's a major reason we are playing well we hem teams in our forward half.

A bloke who'll never trust his body & a proppy KPF on a managed program hmm the ball might start pinging out with ease at the wrong time of the year.

 

[HugeJohnson]

Win the next two and we can release a dvd.

 

[Vagabond0]

I think the difference this year to the most recent prelim appearances is that we're beating top 8 sides. We barely did that in those other seasons and it gave a false sense of where we were.
I feel like we deserve our position on the ladder particularly when you consider the players we're missing. Our midfield may be the best in the league if not it's definitely in the top 3.

Being able to beat top 8 sides this season is something that gets discussed a bit in my household. With the exception of the Sydney game personally thought we were the better side on the day as well.

Definitely think we've improved, but with the exception of Collingwood also think the competition has slipped a bit.

Still May though, oppo could pull it together, we could slip, but definitely having 9 wins banked mid season is about as good a spot you can ask.

 

[ClintEastwood]

We've certainly relied on, and targeted Dixon too much.
I love that we're getting it done with a "no-name" forward line, which of course is achievable because we also have mids and defenders in great form.

Took the words right out of my mouth.

 

[ClintEastwood]

Win the next two and we can release a dvd.

View attachment 1700000

The 2004 DVD I already have is quite sufficient, thanks

 

[Chokito]

God help me, I’m on the up

 

[El Zorro]

Big if, but IF Fantasia can get healthy, he could be that spark in the forward line to create opportunistic goals. His 2021 qualifying final performance against Geelong was superb. I think Rioli will come good as the season goes on. Provided late August/early September isn't an absolute wet bog he should be fine.

Credit to the entire club for the results so far this season. They're playing good footy - it's the most I've enjoyed a season since 2020. Just gotta see now where things go at the pointy end of this year. But so far, on the face of it, going to the footy this season hasn't been so much a chore but rather an enjoying time.

Fantasia will probably never get healthy enough to be consistent, but he could be an ace up our sleeve come finals time. He is probably as likely to win the Norm Smith as to retire at the end of this season.

 

[Ports1870]

I'm really looking forward to seeing Duursma and Sinn on the wings, working around Butters, Rozee, JHF, Wines and Drew in the centre, with Bergman, Jones, Williams and Houston all playing behind the ball. This could realistically be the case after the Bye.

Would love to see a team similar to this towards the back end if the year if possible..

FF: O.Fantasia | T.Marshall | J.Finlayson
HF: S.Powell-Pepper | C.Dixon | J.Rioli
C: X.Duurmsa | C.Rozee | J.Sinn
R: S.Lycett | Z.Butters | O.Wines
HB: D.Houston | A.Aliir | M.Bergman
FB: D.Williams | T.McKenzie | R.Burton
I: J.Horne-Francis | W.Drew | D.Byrne-Jones | L.Jones
S: T.Boak

For this to happen…
-Sinn would have to show he’s got it at AFL level
-Selectors would have to show the balls to drop Jonas
-Would have to make the tough decision to drop Boak out of the 22
-Fantasia would need to get fit and back to his best