Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion Part II

[mjtim1]

Why?

Can confirm he has two really dodgy ankles which has severely impacted his playing ability and unfortunately his injury problems don't look like resolving anytime soon. Was an issue at GWS too.

 

[zeeCFC]

Sumner is talented and on his day cracks in hard, but as others have said - his body isn't up to AFL standard and whenever he's looked like getting into some form he'd be out for a few weeks. Shattered his ankles dodgy, I want more SUMNUT skate vids

 

[Azul]

Sumner is a victim of an old fogies policy - signing Rowe, White, ASOS, Simpson and Thomas to one year extensions and holding on to Gibbs means there's no room for under 25s.

 

[Old navy]

He's quick and is a good user of the ball, and we don't have a quality long term small forward yet (unles Pickett stays there). He hasn't benefited from a full pre season so there is reason to think he has scope to turn it around.

Limitations and potential, hence the rookie list. Even more so if the draft is weak.

Bolton seemed to really rate him last season and he looked promising, he just couldn't stay healthy this year and show much or anything.
I could see him getting another year, players like Gallucci Buckley Gorringe and KJ seem to have there papers stapped, plus Dennis is 5 changes already with Daisy White Palmer and Cas also TBA.

 

[Pafloyul]

Josh Kelly is about to be announced on the wing of the AA side in a few weeks time. At age 23 he is LITERALLY one of the best mids in the whole competition. It doesnt matter how many kids we get in, three, four, six.. the chances are very very very slim of any of them being better than Kelly and he's only a kid himself.

Now do i think it will take two of our firsts??? No i dont. That would be way to much going off history. But would he still be worth it? Yes.

No.

 

[Old navy]

Daisy I would definitely keep for another year, he does add leadership, experience, can play a role for the team and seems to have leant how to play to his games limitations, plus always bring absolute effort, at worst he gives some depth and we saw what he can do back at VFL level, that could also be of value to us.

Palmer and Smedts could be valueable to our 2's next year, think they might be contacted anyways.

 

[BlueTongue]

No.

I'm "Almost with you" on that. However, if you "Don't look back" at the awesome season he's had, then you won't see "A Fire burns" amongst those on this board to have him here for the cost of 2 firsts. But then again, it looks as though "You Took" more convincing than most...

 

[Old navy]

I would rather trade pick 3 and 17 or 21 to get kelly and keep next years pick

Unless GWS win the flag I'm thinking Kelly will leave in two years time, which would give us more time too really rebuild our list through the the draft and then add a player like Kelly in his prime as the cream, would probably cost less too.
The kid is a genuine gun and if he is leaving, I'd love us to land him, love watching him play, but is the timing really right for us, if we're thinking long game, probably not.

 

[El Topo]

Can't see us landing Kelly if Gibbs stays. A Hopper/Rayner combo is a damn fine consolation prize.

 

[Dramoth]

Bit left field but if Casboult goes could White be a back up option as 2nd ruck/fwd. Same height as Pederson from Demons and has the right attitude. No room down back and his aggression may be handy whilst we develop

White is only 190cm tall IIRC.

 

[Dramoth]

Sumner is a victim of an old fogies policy - signing Rowe, White, ASOS, Simpson and Thomas to one year extensions and holding on to Gibbs means there's no room for under 25s.

Sumner was always going to be a risk with the ankle fracture he had.

 

[Iamcarlton]

I'm sorry if this sounds a bit harsh, but i can't believe people are willing to ship off both our '17 & '18 firsts.
Don't get me wrong I would prefer Kelly over anyone in this draft, but not at that expense.

Lucosius, Rankin, King and others look like absolute guns, I know people have pointed out that we won't know for sure until next year but geez next year looks like a ripper crop.

Actually there is one player this year that has my attention, Aiden Bonar could be the best player in the draft. He's come off a knee reco, but playing well since he's returned.

What I'm trying to say is that, for a club half way through a rebuild, I don't think we should be spending more than one pick on a player.

Imagine if we got Bonar this year and Rankin next, maybe add Hopper to that mix amd a couple of depth players like Balic etc. JMO

PLEASE SOS DON'T SELL THE FARM

How about if we landed Dylan Shiel or similar when he is available via FA without giving up picks which is very plausible . So then its Shiel and Kelly for 2 first round picks the cost of Kelly . Does that change your perception of selling the farm ? . Imo we should be assessing our drafting and trading performance as a whole now and when the rebuild is finished not just on individual trades .

 

[Blue_Fusion]

I'm sorry if this sounds a bit harsh, but i can't believe people are willing to ship off both our '17 & '18 firsts.
Don't get me wrong I would prefer Kelly over anyone in this draft, but not at that expense.

Lucosius, Rankin, King and others look like absolute guns, I know people have pointed out that we won't know for sure until next year but geez next year looks like a ripper crop.

Actually there is one player this year that has my attention, Aiden Bonar could be the best player in the draft. He's come off a knee reco, but playing well since he's returned.

What I'm trying to say is that, for a club half way through a rebuild, I don't think we should be spending more than one pick on a player.

Imagine if we got Bonar this year and Rankin next, maybe add Hopper to that mix amd a couple of depth players like Balic etc. JMO

PLEASE SOS DON'T SELL THE FARM

I agree we can't afford to offload both this year's and next year's first.

We won't be spending pick #3 on a guy who's coming off 2 knee reconstructions.

Bonar and Rankine will take at least 3 years to develop at AFL level IF they make it. In the meantime we will lose Murphy and likely Gibbs. Who supports Cripps?

SOS won't sell the farm I can assure you and everyone else of that.

I'm sticking to my thoughts and that is Gibbs for #10. Couple #3+#10 for Kelly and Hopper (we may need to sweeten it up with a later pick upgrade, maybe our 2018 2nd for theirs)

Then we keep our 1st for next year and chase Shiel end of 2019 as a FA whilst keeping our 2019 1st.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Unless GWS win the flag I'm thinking Kelly will leave in two years time, which would give us more time too really rebuild our list through the the draft and then add a player like Kelly in his prime as the cream, would probably cost less too.
The kid is a genuine gun and if he is leaving, I'd love us to land him, love watching him play, but is the timing really right for us, if we're thinking long game, probably not.

We need to target Kelly now so we can focus on Shiel in 2 years time.

 

[HBF]

Not long at all. He posted a thank you on instagram.

Someone of his size I was hopeful that he'd make it.
At least he gave it a shot.

 

[HBF]

Much rather let Casboult go as FA and offer that + pick 3 for Kelly

I suspect most would echo those comments, but it would be hard to imagine another club offering more than we have - $500k x 2.

 

[I AM CARLTON]

Lets say Casboult signs another contract to stay what do people think would be the best way we can get into the 2nd round this year?

Gold Coast have 4 2nd round picks i wonder if SOS could do some kind of deal to grab either 1 or 2 of those picks.

Would Gold Coast sacrifice 2 of those picks for our 2nd round pick from next year. That would leave them with 2 picks in 2nd roynd this year and next year.

Food for thought to try to get more picks this year.

 

[slashin_velvet]

Lets say Casboult signs another contract to stay what do people think would be the best way we can get into the 2nd round this year?

Gold Coast have 4 2nd round picks i wonder if SOS could do some kind of deal to grab either 1 or 2 of those picks.

Would Gold Coast sacrifice 2 of those picks for our 2nd round pick from next year. That would leave them with 2 picks in 2nd roynd this year and next year.

Food for thought to try to get more picks this year.

I would expect a fair bit of what they did last year - upgrading into the first round where possible.

 

[HBF]

If we are to get both Hopper and Kelly, I can't see us retaining our pick 3 this year. You can't have it all, just doesn't work that way.

Pretty sure that's a given.
I'd be happy to hand over #3 for Kelly, but not next years first rounder.

 

[HBF]

Yeah but they're all playing fiddles together in the top 4
I don't think they're going to go backwards just because he chose to go to them?
I might be wrong...

Geelong are an interesting case. They are drafting for the now, with very few good young kids coming through.
Lonergan and Mackie finish up at the end of the year, and Harry Taylor will turn 32 in June of next year.
It's going to be this year or next for them - you don't just replace those players overnight, and the rule about
trading first round draft picks kicks in 2019.

 

[I AM CARLTON]

Geelong are an interesting case. They are drafting for the now, with very few good young kids coming through.
Lonergan and Mackie finish up at the end of the year, and Harry Taylor will turn 32 in June of next year.
It's going to be this year or next for them - you don't just replace those players overnight, and the rule about
trading first round draft picks kicks in 2019.

As the rules for first round picks dont kick in to 2019 Geelong might offer next years first for Hopper, would we be prepared to do the same Im not sure.

 

[james Dean]

Pretty sure that's a given.
I'd be happy to hand over #3 for Kelly, but not next years first rounder.

Surely the precedent was set with Treloar. Kelly will get GWS 2 first rounders, we may need to find a way to get a second first round pick for this year otherwise St Kilda will snap him up.

 

[Stamos]

Surely the precedent was set with Treloar. Kelly will get GWS 2 first rounders, we may need to find a way to get a second first round pick for this year otherwise St Kilda will snap him up.

3 is worth a fair bit more than 7, but it alone won't get it done. For 2 firsts, we'd want Kelly & Hopper and maybe something else.

 

[ShanDog]

GWS would barely blink at losing Kelly and Hopper. The amount of talent on their list is incredible and deep. If they continue to successfully trade out gun players for high picks and draft well, they can continue holding ridiculous amounts of talent and trade power for years.

The only thing stopping them having huge amounts of success in the foreseeable future is off-field issues (poor finances / support / not footy related things) and coaching.

 

[HARKER]

GWS would barely blink at losing Kelly and Hopper. The amount of talent on their list is incredible and deep. If they continue to successfully trade out gun players for high picks and draft well, they can continue holding ridiculous amounts of talent and trade power for years.

The only thing stopping them having huge amounts of success in the foreseeable future is off-field issues (poor finances / support / not footy related things) and coaching.

Maybe, but I'm not so sure about that.

They do have some good young talent coming through, but they may take some time.
Taranto, Setterfield, Kennedy, Himmelberg and Perryman all look good on potential, but yet to be truly proven.

They may well not win the Premiership this year that on talent alone they should have and may well see the likes of Deledio, Shaw, Mumford, Johnson, Mzungu and Griffen slow down considerably next year.

Kelly would likely be a future captain at GWS and Hopper has also been seen as a leader. Losing young leaders wouldn't be ideal for this group.