2022 Federal Election Watch

[Gralin]

Part 2 can be found here

2022 Federal Election Watch - Part 2 the count

Welcome to Part 2 of the Federal Election Watch Part 1 can be found here https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2022-federal-election-watch.1306808/

www.bigfooty.com

 

[Pie eyed]

Stop treating your fellow citizens with contempt and engage in the democratic process

Otherwise you are merely helping create a self-fulfilling prophecy - Morrison would probably thank you for it

Read the thread title. I am not waking the streets with a placard.
The only people in this thread are us normal people and the idiots who voted for Morrison.

Spare me the drama.

How many people do you think reads BF let alone a thread in the Australian Politics forum?

 

[Pie eyed]

bizarre to see people who ostensibly support the worker’s party display such disdain for the common man

Where does anyone claim that the "idiots" who vote Liberal are the workers?
That is solely your assumption surely?

 

[Coolangatta]

I don't agree that being nicer to people is gonna make much difference in terms of voting. You're going up against confirmation bias, social media bias, social group bias, the backfire effect, the Dunning Kruger effect; have I missed anything else? Also, a certain percentage of people are single-issue voters. Some people vote for LNP because they think ALP means getting swamped with boats, etc.

Same as in the US with people who only vote Republican because they're pro-life, or love guns, or fear non-white immigrant replacement. Lastly, some people aren't going to argue in good faith. You'll always have gish gallopers and cherry pickers.

I hope Labor get up, but have very little faith in Australians after the last effort.

Probably the stupidest population on the planet.

Yeah, there's not a lot of good political engagement in the country, and too much of it is based on social media and MSM.

But surely Americans trump us when it comes to stupid voters.

 

[Leeda]

if Scumo stays it’ll be a blood bath. No wonder Archer is jumping ship. More will follow imo

Turn your self into a thoughtful person…yeah…gonna do that

 

[PT Bar None]

Be interesting to watch the independent impact. There are people around who are literally unable to vote ALP or Green. Just can't do it regardless of context or performance. You know the types. (And plenty in the vice versa camp too).

I orta know - I'll be sharing a turkey lunch with a heap of them in 3 weeks.

My mob are more likely to vote informal than ALP. I'm sure a few of the serious Catholics, once in the sanctity of the polling booth will still put a 1 next to the Nationals candidate. I reckon we've got a One Nation voter too. The rest will probably scattergun independents. Enough people like that, could turn up a weird lower house?

So long as that Palmer trencher doesn't end up with a lower house seat.

Alea jacta est. Or at least alea calet anyway.

 

[Ohitsthatguy]

Scummo by a bees dick.

Australia to drift further towards authoritarianism.

 

[adelaidecrows]

I don't know who will win the next federal election, however, I am finding one thing particularly disturbing.

Where are all of Clive Palmers anti Labor television and radio adverts? Got to say, its just not the same.

 

[nut]

“ sit down boofhead “ … that was a major turning point IMO.

 

[Power Raid]

I'm stunned the Libs didn't switch out Scomo 3 months ago

dead man walking

 

[Senor M]

I don't know who will win the next federal election, however, I am finding one thing particularly disturbing.

Where are all of Clive Palmers anti Labor television and radio adverts? Got to say, its just not the same.

They exist--- but it's currently being channeled through social media to the alt-right conspiracy theory anti-lockdown/vaxx types. Doesn't need to spend $50 million on achieving nothing, when he can spend 10% and get Craig Kelly and a bunch of his mates elected as "independents".

 

[Kram]

I'm stunned the Libs didn't switch out Scomo 3 months ago

dead man walking

Yeah if Labor can't win this one against Australia's worst ever PM they may as well fold.

 

[Rotayjay]

If Labor are smart they will have Albo tour WA for an extended period flanked by McGowan, they will have an ad campaign repeatedly referencing how the LNP tried to get the state gov to open the state border early, they will have McGowan on TV and radio imploring the WA public to vote for fed Labor. The LNP hold a handful of seats in the state by very small margins, they also hold seats that are (were) held by on the nose Libs like Porter and Reynolds. They are on the nose big time in this state. Labor will gain 4+ seats here alone. Considering they only hold government right now by a single seat, where are they going to gain the seats need to retain power when they will lose several in WA? Stop freaking out. The election is a foregone conclusion.

Bookmark this post for revisiting in six months, and I hope you're right.

 

[pugsville]

I'm stunned the Libs didn't switch out Scomo 3 months ago

dead man walking

For Who?

I depsise scotty form marketing but he' has game plan he keeps it simple, he could be back.

Mostly a pack of lies, but simple ones that reduce to simple campaign messages. Labour cannot help themselves will have policies which have nuance and will be harder to explain. Takle cimate chnage, simple repeating the mantra that they have a plan which is one target and will meet our complimmnets that we have alosways met them and remain of target is enough for many voters and has a great simiplicty having your cake and eating it too. It's pack of lies, but a reassuring and cost free one. Any actual climate policy can them be opposed through cost and fear campaigns. A the bright shing lie do absolutely nothing (other than throw some money to the coal industry for no good reason) has a elegant simplicity.

I think covoid make sit a tricky unpredictable election. There laways a chnace the electorate will bve looking for someone to kick, if I was a government I would not be first state.federal governmet to go to the polls next year, let voters vent steam locally first if I could.

The M<orrisoan he just wnats to get givernment out of peoples lives line might work. It's baloney , bong water of dirtiest kind, but still a cunning marketing strategy. Deny that you have been the government, it's almost plausible given their basically do nothing strategy thoughout the pandemic.

I donlt think the election is predictable,. I think it could volatile either way, colaition doing nothing , repeating simple mantras, is a plan that is hard to stuff up unless someone somehwere feels the need t o actually say something, have a policy or tell some truth. Labour platform will be more complex and a harder sell.

 

[iluvparis]

Yeah if Labor can't win this one against Australia's worst ever PM they may as well fold.

This - if the shoe was on the other foot and this were an ALP government it would be a slaughter of Howard 96 proportions. However the fact remains that the LNP party machine is just much much better at winning elections at the Federal level than the ALP and that gives them a fighting chance.

 

[JackFlash]

I think Scomo will lose, one can only hope the insane "Greens" get nowhere?

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Too hard to tell. On one hand Scomo is really on the nose at the moment and his credibility has taken a hammering over the past few months. On the other hand I feel like the ALP still has the issue of needing to appeal to the progressives in Victoria whilst winning over enough conservative votes in Queensland. They couldn't do it last time and I haven't seen anything to convince me that they can do it this time. The only thing that has changed since last time is that Albo has replaced Shorten.Will that be enough? I don't know. But it's early days. We'll get a better idea once the battle lines are drawn around policy.

Myself and DaRick have pointed out before that it's not as simple as Victoria progressive, Queensland conservative. There are two Queenslands - Brisbane and Not Brisbane. (Actually, there are many more Queenslands within each category, but let's keep it broad and relatively simple for now). Not Brisbane will always be a hard sell for Labor for many reasons, such as the economics of coal and agriculture, age profile, identity politics and history. I'm not sure Labor can win more than one seat in Not Brisbane without having a charismatic Queenslander as leader, as they did in 2007.

Instead, Labor should be concentrating on winning seats in Brisbane, specifically in the suburbs on the edge of the urban area (electorates of Longman, Petrie, Ryan, Dickson, Forde, Bowman and Bonner, as well as safeguarding their slim margins in Blair and Lilley). I maintain the reason all these seats swung to the LNP last time was not because of coal mining, which employs very few people in these areas directly or indirectly, but because of the media scare campaign against Shorten's tax policies, and Shorten's failure to adequately counter that narrative.

What this means is, now that Labor are free of Shorten's baggage, they can theoretically succeed in Brisbane and win back seats without having to continue embracing the coal industry. In fact, I think distancing themselves from Adani et al would actually help them in some seats. The question is, have they sufficiently distanced themselves from Shorten's tax policies enough in the minds of suburban voters? My feeling is, replacing policy with no policy may not be enough to change people's impressions, especially when you're not in the media talking about the cost of living all that often. Ideally they'd have released some more policies around easing the cost of living and spruik their existing ones more. But I think they have a good chance at picking up one of the above seats, probably Longman.

It's not impossible for Labor to win a seat in Not Brisbane either, provided they target a particular one and promote a plan for future jobs outside of the fossil fuel industry. For example, I think Flynn wouldn't be out of the question if they had a strong plan for green hydrogen and green ammonia manufacturing in Gladstone, and promoted the hell out of it. But I don't see that happening this time.

 

[kranky al]

Myself and DaRick have pointed out before that it's not as simple as Victoria progressive, Queensland conservative. There are two Queenslands - Brisbane and Not Brisbane. (Actually, there are many more Queenslands within each category, but let's keep it broad and relatively simple for now). Not Brisbane will always be a hard sell for Labor for many reasons, such as the economics of coal and agriculture, age profile, identity politics and history. I'm not sure Labor can win more than one seat in Not Brisbane without having a charismatic Queenslander as leader, as they did in 2007.

Instead, Labor should be concentrating on winning seats in Brisbane, specifically in the suburbs on the edge of the urban area (electorates of Longman, Petrie, Ryan, Dickson, Forde, Bowman and Bonner, as well as safeguarding their slim margins in Blair and Lilley). I maintain the reason all these seats swung to the LNP last time was not because of coal mining, which employs very few people in these areas directly or indirectly, but because of the media scare campaign against Shorten's tax policies, and Shorten's failure to adequately counter that narrative.

What this means is, now that Labor are free of Shorten's baggage, they can theoretically succeed in Brisbane and win back seats without having to continue embracing the coal industry. In fact, I think distancing themselves from Adani et al would actually help them in some seats. The question is, have they sufficiently distanced themselves from Shorten's tax policies enough in the minds of suburban voters? My feeling is, replacing policy with no policy may not be enough to change people's impressions, especially when you're not in the media talking about the cost of living all that often. Ideally they'd have released some more policies around easing the cost of living and spruik their existing ones more. But I think they have a good chance at picking up one of the above seats, probably Longman.

It's not impossible for Labor to win a seat in Not Brisbane either, provided they target a particular one and promote a plan for future jobs outside of the fossil fuel industry. For example, I think Flynn wouldn't be out of the question if they had a strong plan for green hydrogen and green ammonia manufacturing in Gladstone, and promoted the hell out of it. But I don't see that happening this time.

Lived in nq for a good many years and what a bunch they are up there.


Lost count of the blokes who would say nq is the best place on earth without having left it ever. You say to them, “how do you know if youve never been elsewhere” the reply was invariably, “dont need to”

Stubborn mule headed mofos - something about the heat up there makes them as pig headed as you can imagine. Also some of the best people ive ever met. Still friends 30 years later.

 

[Herzog]

Lost count of the blokes who would say nq is the best place on earth without having left it ever. You say to them, “how do you know if youve never been elsewhere” the reply was invariably, “dont need to”

lol. It's like a direct quote from Wake in Fright.

 

[QuietB]

I'm stunned the Libs didn't switch out Scomo 3 months ago

dead man walking

To who? I cannot think of anyone in the Liberal Party who is presentable in any way.

Lack of credible alternatives is how they ended up with Morrison in the first place. Morrison is only there because they could not bring themselves to anoint Dutton.

 

[Saint]

Lived in nq for a good many years and what a bunch they are up there.


Lost count of the blokes who would say nq is the best place on earth without having left it ever. You say to them, “how do you know if youve never been elsewhere” the reply was invariably, “dont need to”

Stubborn mule headed mofos - something about the heat up there makes them as pig headed as you can imagine. Also some of the best people ive ever met. Still friends 30 years later.

The strangest thing about the politics up there is that they're some of the most corrupt people going in the conservative areas. But then when I spoke to a guy about why he didn't fight a charge against his business this was his response:

"I might get a Labor judge who hates businesses and will just fine me anyway"

Their ignorance is true bliss. With that climate, there's not enough time to worry about the corruption going on in air-conditioned Govt offices.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

To who? I cannot think of anyone in the Liberal Party who is presentable in any way.

Lack of credible alternatives is how they ended up with Morrison in the first place. Morrison is only there because they could not bring themselves to anoint Dutton.

Dutton is a better fit for their anti-china message (and any one can tax cut)

dutton is a true believer, and those wanting that message would respond.

 

[kranky al]

The strangest thing about the politics up there is that they're some of the most corrupt people going in the conservative areas. But then when I spoke to a guy about why he didn't fight a charge against his business this was his response:

"I might get a Labor judge who hates businesses and will just fine me anyway"

Their ignorance is true bliss. With that climate, there's not enough time to worry about the corruption going on in air-conditioned Govt offices.

Special breed, i went up for a holiday in 1994 - this is when phone cards were a thing and more pertinently - card only phones.

Get off the plane and go to a payphone area .

Old mate is in front of me using a card in a card and coins phone.

Hes obviously hitting an engaged number over and over and over - im waiting in the nq heat and waiting and waiting - he sorta turns round and says “why doncha use that phone matel

Im like - thats card only no coins”

He says (without a hint of malice “yair dunno why they have those things - noone uses them” and goes back to using the coin and card phone.

There was zero ill intent - when i pointed out that he could use it - he waent “oh yair, spose i could” and did.

Just didnt occur to him. There's a lot of that up there.

 

[Father Jack]

Lots of Queenslanders told me how terrible Tassie is when I lived up there, but funnily enough it was only the ones who had never been down here.

 

[QuietB]

Dutton is a better fit for their anti-china message (and any one can tax cut)

dutton is a true believer, and those wanting that message would respond.

Dutton is entirely unelectable outside kook Queensland and NSW seats. The Liberals know this and that is why they reverted to Morrison once they dumped Turnbull. Morrison did not come from nowhere on merit - he came from nowhere because the Liberals were petrified of what Dutton might mean.

It is a fact that Turnbull was their best candidate (he is gone), Julie Bishop was 2nd (she is gone), Porter had potential if the controversies dod not exist (he is gone) and the cupboard is bare outside that.

That a nothing man like Morrison - his own colleagues refer to him as "that campaigner Morrison" - was the Liberals best and maybe only choice as leader shows that they are in complete disarray.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Dutton is entirely unelectable outside kook Queensland and NSW seats. The Liberals know this and that is why they reverted to Morrison once they dumped Turnbull. Morrison did not come from nowhere on merit - he came from nowhere because the Liberals were petrified of what Dutton might mean.

It is a fact that Turnbull was their best candidate (he is gone), Julie Bishop was 2nd (she is gone), Porter had potential if the controversies dod not exist (he is gone) and the cupboard is bare outside that.

That a nothing man like Morrison - his own colleagues refer to him as "that campaigner Morrison" - was the Liberals best and maybe only choice as leader shows that they are in complete disarray.

they can only win full stop with qld and nsw, may as well go all in