2022 - the season that could have been...

[Meteoric Rise]

I know in 2017 we seemed to lose some close ones. Whilst the Premiers may not win the majority of close ones, the Best side tends to win most of their games by good margins. We are just not a Good side.

Cheers. Maybe it's good sides find a way to win the close ones when they have to win? i.e,. the season is on the line.

I am unsure of that one. I may look at it later as it is interesting.

One interesting thing is to contrast the notional best team in the comp, the premier, with the notional worst team, the wooden spooner.

Games that don’t run close, we know the premier will average around an 80% win rate or higher. The wooden spooner probably averages a 15% win rate in games with a margin outside of 11 points. But in games decided by 11 or less since and including 2010, this skyrockets to 14 wins and 17 losses. 45% win rate.

So when things get tight…..the best team in the AFL winning percentage plummets from around 80% to 59%, a decrease of - 26%. And the worst team in the AFL’s winning percentage skyrockets from around 15% to around 45%. And increase of 300%.

So in relative terms compared to their performance in games that are not close, wooden spooners outperform premiers in tight finishes by a facter of around 380%.

Would it be then safer to say that in relative terms, bad teams find a way to win the tight ones to a much greater extent than good teams?

 

[SDMTiger4]

I am unsure of that one. I may look at it later as it is interesting.

One interesting thing is to contrast the notional best team in the comp, the premier, with the notional worst team, the wooden spooner.

Games that don’t run close, we know the premier will average around an 80% win rate or higher. The wooden spooner probably averages a 15% win rate in games with a margin outside of 11 points. But in games decided by 11 or less since and including 2010, this skyrockets to 14 wins and 17 losses. 45% win rate.

So when things get tight…..the best team in the AFL winning percentage plummets from around 80% to 59%, a decrease of - 26%. And the worst team in the AFL’s winning percentage skyrockets from around 15% to around 45%. And increase of 300%.

So in relative terms compared to their performance in games that are not close, wooden spooners outperform premiers in tight finishes by a facter of around 380%.

Would it be then safer to say that in relative terms, bad teams find a way to win the tight ones to a much greater extent than good teams?

Maybe comes down to desperation? (i.e. the better teams just think they will get the job done, and just wait for it to happen)

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Maybe comes down to desperation? (i.e. the better teams just think they will get the job done, and just wait for it to happen)

If you think it through rationally….I think if a team is good enough to be in the game they are normally good enough to be in the finish. But a higher ranked team is normally more likely to score next than the lower ranked team.

All the end of the game is in reality is another part of the game like any other. It is just we want to ascribe narratives that don’t exist to the finish of contests when they are close. One team just wanted it more, or found a way, the losing team has to learn how to find a way and all this utter utter shyte. The team who made a mistake near the end of the game is unprofessional etc. Overlooking the 100 “unprofessional” errors the other team may have made during the match.

I posted the following on a main board thread about teams who had finished in the highest clutch winning position in the AFL since 2010 - 4th. It probably tells you all you need to know about the value of being a “clutch” team…….

As I wrote in my earlier post, the strongest clutch performers on average by ladder position have been the lower of the two losing Preliminary Finalists, from 2010 onwards at least.

Let’s look at the finals performances with which they were eliminated:


2021. Port Adelaide 5-0 games decided by 11 or less. PF 6.9 v Dogs 17.11. Dogs got hammered in the GF

2020. Brisbane 4-0 clutch games. PF 6.6 v Geelong 11.16. Cats got hammered in the GF

2019. Collingwood 6-4 in clutch games. PF 7.10 v GWS 8.8. GWS got smithereened in the GF

2018. Melbourne 0-5 in clutch games. PF 7.13 v 18.13. Eagles won the flag in a tight game. Demons went on to win a flag 3 years later.

2017. GWS 4-1 clutch games. PF 9.13 v Richmond 15.13. Tigers went on to win the flag.

2016. GWS 1-4 clutch games. PF 12.11 v Bulldogs 13.11. Bulldogs went on to win the flag.

2015. North 3-1 clutch games. PF 7.13 v Eagles 10.20. Eagles well beaten in the GF.

2014. North 3-1 clutch games. PF 9.11 v Swans 19.22. Swans got hammered in the GF.

2013. Sydney. 0-0 clutch games. PF 11.8 v Freo 14.15. Freo were competitive but lost the GF.

2012. Collingwood. 4-0 clutch games. PF 10.10 v Swans 13.18. Swans won a tight GF, with 5 less scoring shots than the Hawks.

2011. Eagles 6-1 in clutch games. PF 10.9 v Geelong 17.15. Cats went on to win the flag by 6 goals, 2 behinds.

2010. Bulldogs 3-4 clutch games. PF 8.16 v Saints 13.10. Saints went on to draw the GF Preplay. Then were well held in the replay.


So these teams actually went 39-21 overall in the clutch games. A 65% clutch record. I am confident that is the best clutch record of any finishing position from 2010 onwards.

Look at the teams who finished 4th that I have coloured red. They were the big clutch game winners. 35-8 in clutch games these 8 teams. Incredible. Their PF average losing margins were just under 40 points. The teams they were beaten by averaged GF performance of about -26 points. So on average these big clutch game winners that found a way to win…were around 65 points shy of the premiers in the finals series. None of these teams have gone on to win a flag within 6years. The best of these 8 teams looked about 4-6 goals short of Premiership form in the finals. The worst of them…carnage, they were smashed by teams who themselves were smashed in the GF.


Now look at the teams I have coloured green. These are the weaker clutch teams of this sample. Their collective clutch records were 4-13. Their average PF losing margin was 30 points, but on average they had 5.5 less s/s so the average expected value from that would be a -20 point result. The teams they were beaten by had average GF results of roughly +5 points. Or -10 points if you took the Saints 2010 GF replay result rather than the Grand final result. Of these teams Bulldogs won a flag within 6 years, Demons within 3 years, GWS finished 4th then 2nd in the next 2 seasons, and Swans made the GF the next season. So this group averaged lower PF losing margins v better teams than the “clutch” group.

So perhaps you can see from this sample why I am a bit wary of the great clutch winners. The teams who don’t “clutch” so well have tended to do better in the big finals. And a strong clutch record seems to be a harbinger of finals doom.

Mind you, we all thought you couldn’t win from outside the top 4 before the Dogs managed it in 2016.

 

[SDMTiger4]

If you think it through rationally….I think if a team is good enough to be in the game they are normally good enough to be in the finish. But a higher ranked team is normally more likely to score next than the lower ranked team.

All the end of the game is in reality is another part of the game like any other. It is just we want to ascribe narratives that don’t exist to the finish of contests when they are close. One team just wanted it more, or found a way, the losing team has to learn how to find a way and all this utter utter shyte. The team who made a mistake near the end of the game is unprofessional etc. Overlooking the 100 “unprofessional” errors the other team may have made during the match.

I posted the following on a main board thread about teams who had finished in the highest clutch winning position in the AFL since 2010 - 4th. It probably tells you all you need to know about the value of being a “clutch” team…….

As I wrote in my earlier post, the strongest clutch performers on average by ladder position have been the lower of the two losing Preliminary Finalists, from 2010 onwards at least.

Let’s look at the finals performances with which they were eliminated:


2021. Port Adelaide 5-0 games decided by 11 or less. PF 6.9 v Dogs 17.11. Dogs got hammered in the GF

2020. Brisbane 4-0 clutch games. PF 6.6 v Geelong 11.16. Cats got hammered in the GF

2019. Collingwood 6-4 in clutch games. PF 7.10 v GWS 8.8. GWS got smithereened in the GF

2018. Melbourne 0-5 in clutch games. PF 7.13 v 18.13. Eagles won the flag in a tight game. Demons went on to win a flag 3 years later.

2017. GWS 4-1 clutch games. PF 9.13 v Richmond 15.13. Tigers went on to win the flag.

2016. GWS 1-4 clutch games. PF 12.11 v Bulldogs 13.11. Bulldogs went on to win the flag.

2015. North 3-1 clutch games. PF 7.13 v Eagles 10.20. Eagles well beaten in the GF.

2014. North 3-1 clutch games. PF 9.11 v Swans 19.22. Swans got hammered in the GF.

2013. Sydney. 0-0 clutch games. PF 11.8 v Freo 14.15. Freo were competitive but lost the GF.

2012. Collingwood. 4-0 clutch games. PF 10.10 v Swans 13.18. Swans won a tight GF, with 5 less scoring shots than the Hawks.

2011. Eagles 6-1 in clutch games. PF 10.9 v Geelong 17.15. Cats went on to win the flag by 6 goals, 2 behinds.

2010. Bulldogs 3-4 clutch games. PF 8.16 v Saints 13.10. Saints went on to draw the GF Preplay. Then were well held in the replay.


So these teams actually went 39-21 overall in the clutch games. A 65% clutch record. I am confident that is the best clutch record of any finishing position from 2010 onwards.

Look at the teams who finished 4th that I have coloured red. They were the big clutch game winners. 35-8 in clutch games these 8 teams. Incredible. Their PF average losing margins were just under 40 points. The teams they were beaten by averaged GF performance of about -26 points. So on average these big clutch game winners that found a way to win…were around 65 points shy of the premiers in the finals series. None of these teams have gone on to win a flag within 6years. The best of these 8 teams looked about 4-6 goals short of Premiership form in the finals. The worst of them…carnage, they were smashed by teams who themselves were smashed in the GF.


Now look at the teams I have coloured green. These are the weaker clutch teams of this sample. Their collective clutch records were 4-13. Their average PF losing margin was 30 points, but on average they had 5.5 less s/s so the average expected value from that would be a -20 point result. The teams they were beaten by had average GF results of roughly +5 points. Or -10 points if you took the Saints 2010 GF replay result rather than the Grand final result. Of these teams Bulldogs won a flag within 6 years, Demons within 3 years, GWS finished 4th then 2nd in the next 2 seasons, and Swans made the GF the next season. So this group averaged lower PF losing margins v better teams than the “clutch” group.

So perhaps you can see from this sample why I am a bit wary of the great clutch winners. The teams who don’t “clutch” so well have tended to do better in the big finals. And a strong clutch record seems to be a harbinger of finals doom.

Mind you, we all thought you couldn’t win from outside the top 4 before the Dogs managed it in 2016.

 

[T4P]

Premiers since 2010 have won 35 and lost 24 of the games decided by 11 points or less. 59% win ratio. This wouldn’t be a long way from a Premier’s average probability of kicking the next goal at any point of a match. Given overall the Premier would win roughly 80% of their matches on average, the best teams in the AFL are losing close matches at roughly twice the rate at which they lose matches that are not close.

Does this put the lie to any claim good teams just find a way to win?

I'd say it shows they are more likely to win the close ones. If you assume a game that goes to the wire is a 50/50 affair, a 9% advantage is substantial

 

[SunshineBoy]

I am unsure of that one. I may look at it later as it is interesting.

One interesting thing is to contrast the notional best team in the comp, the premier, with the notional worst team, the wooden spooner.

Games that don’t run close, we know the premier will average around an 80% win rate or higher. The wooden spooner probably averages a 15% win rate in games with a margin outside of 11 points. But in games decided by 11 or less since and including 2010, this skyrockets to 14 wins and 17 losses. 45% win rate.

So when things get tight…..the best team in the AFL winning percentage plummets from around 80% to 59%, a decrease of - 26%. And the worst team in the AFL’s winning percentage skyrockets from around 15% to around 45%. And increase of 300%.

So in relative terms compared to their performance in games that are not close, wooden spooners outperform premiers in tight finishes by a facter of around 380%.

Would it be then safer to say that in relative terms, bad teams find a way to win the tight ones to a much greater extent than good teams?

Thanks champion data , the only stat that counts is the one on the scoreboard at the end of the game

 

[Groupie_]

we'll win our remaining games

 

[Area51]

we'll win our remaining games

and finish 9th, missing 8th spot by two premiership points.

 

[Frank Grimes]

and finish 9th, missing 8th spot by two premiership points.

I'm never too sure where these 9th reference's came from exactly. We last finished 9th back on 2008. The only plausible thing I can think of is us finishing 9th every second year from 1994 to 2000. Is that what the reference is about?

Anyway it does look like the season is finished for us and appears to be the view within the club seeing that first Lambert announces his retirement and then Parker the next day.

It's been a frustrating year because at our best we can match anyone, however our worst is just about as bad as anyone too. We have been way too inconsistent. We lost games against finals contenders in Sydney, Geelong and Freo by less than a goal (and won against Carlton), but we also lost games against ordinary opposition in North and Gold Coast by a goal.

If we turned those one goal losses to one goal wins then not only would we be looking at finals, but the top of the ladder.

As the title of the thread goes. The season that could have been....

Unfortunately this season was the last gasp with our core group that won us the premierships and provided us with a fantastic 6 years of football. For them it is a case that if they are not going to be of value in providing leadership and setting the bar for our young players, then unfortunately it may be time to allow for a younger player to have a go in the senior side.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I'd say it shows they are more likely to win the close ones. If you assume a game that goes to the wire is a 50/50 affair, a 9% advantage is substantial

However there is a big difference between 59% and “always finds a way,” I would say.

 

[Tiges1229]

Yibbidi yibbida that’s all folks

 

[SunshineBoy]

The rot started against the eagles second match , lucky to not lose that one