Preview 2023 Rd 12 Carlton vs Melbourne Friday June 2 7:50PM @ MCG

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Team is in …





IN: Alex Cincotta, Zac Fisher, Lochie O'Brien, Jack Silvagni, Lewis Young
OUT: Corey Durdin (knee), George Hewett (concussion), Ollie Hollands (collarbone), Nic Newman (hamstring), Marc Pittonet (hand), Ed Curnow


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AFL team changes: Five ins for Friday

Carlton has named five returnees for Friday night football.
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Backs:Alex CincottaJacob WeiteringBrodie Kemp
Half-backs:Lewis YoungMitch McGovernAdam Saad
Centreline:Blake AcresPatrick CrippsSam Walsh
Half-forwards:Jesse MotlopCharlie CurnowJack Silvagni
Forwards:Zac FisherHarry McKayMatthew Owies
Followers:Tom De KoningMatthew KennedyAdam Cerra
Interchange:Jordan BoydMatthew CottrellSam Docherty
Lochie O'Brien
Emergencies:Ed CurnowPaddy DowLachie Fogarty
Lachie Plowman
 
B

Beyond Blue

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Jun 25, 2021
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Carlton
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I asked for this game for a reason. My psychologist says for me to be any chance of making a full recovery I have to confront the cause of my trauma, specifically the evening of Saturday the 13th of August 2022. I remember it like it was yesterday. I was at Optus watching a dreadful derby. I couldn’t find a tv anywhere in the stadium to watch our game so I ended up watch it on a phone with a young Blues fan I met that night. We laughed, we cried, we drank and then when big H took that mark on the wing we celebrated - we were back in the finals after 9 years of purgatory - alas I crowed early and paid the price. What transpired over the next 50 odd seconds I have watched so many times - sometime I think I watched it actually hoping for a different outcome - they are now forever etched in my memory. This game was the most heartbreaking loss I can remember since, ironically, our 2000 qualifying final loss to Melbourne. That it held that title for a whole 8 days until the following weeks capitulation against the Pies captures the essence what being a Carlton supporter has become.

Ok enough of my petty insecurities and onto this weeks match. Melbourne in 2023 are pretty good. They are the highest scoring team in the league and their forward line is almost the antithesis of ours in that they lack the star power of our twin tower Coleman medallists but they have a good spread of goalkickers who make the most of their opportunities. Bailey Fritsch, Koziah “Kozzy” Pickett and Kade Chandler have all kicked more goals (and less points) than our second leading goalkicker, Harry. They have the most tackles inside their 50 in the league and their chief provocateur is Kozzy. Boy what I’d do to have a player like Kozzy. Instead we have Brodie Kemp and Sam Philp because Stephen Silvagni wanted to show everyone how smart he was splitting one pick into 2. Spargo, when he’s not adjusting his headband, also likes tackling and kicking goals. Alex Neal Bullen is their “no stats” workhorse. He’ll do shuttles up and down the MCG wings like a CBD tram in peak hour on Collins street, and inevitably bobs up like a blowfish to kick a goal or two against us.

To get the ball going forward they need good midfielders and Melbourne have the best 1-2 punch in the league. Petracca and Oliver. Not so much Batman and Robin as they are Simon & Garfunkel in that it’s hard to work out who is better of the two. Then they have Jake Viney who is like a tip rat at the contest. That said we should be able to match them in the contest especially with Oliver out. Surely we get someone to sit on Trac and make the likes of Viney, Sparrow and Harmes beat us. On the wings they have Ed Langdon and Lachie Hunter - good hard seasoned runners - but I’m less worried about these two than I am their two rucks where they have a big advantage. Gawn usually plays well against Carlton and for good measure they added Brodie Grundy in the off season and even managed to get Collingwood to partially pay his contract. This makes me smile even after a tough Carlton loss. A big ask for our Kmart version of the two headed ruck monster to tackle their Gucci brand two headed ruck monster.

They also have the third best defense in the league. Stingy and well organised, they are led by another dynamic duo, Steven May and Jake Lever. Angus Brayshaw is also deployed down back to utilise his excellent skills and general football smarts. They typically surround that trio with honest henchmen in Rivers, Hibberd, Bowey and Petty who sometimes swings forward. Petty will be out when we play them which “may lever” them bit short down back and importantly it’ll mean that Lever and May will need to take Charlie and Harry which should reduce their capacity to take intercept marks. Historically their small running backs have slaughtered us running the ball out at will. Usually it’s Salem but we even managed to make Jayden Hunt look like peak Peter Matera a couple times. This indeed is a chief weakness of our current team, something that is usually reaffirmed on a weekly basis each Monday when the coaches votes invariably include our oppositions entire half back line.

They are a strong unit and I think if Van Rooyen becomes a star they will become a pretty complete side as they haven’t been as effective as they were in 2021 when TMac and BBB were playing well in the forward line. They play a style that I think we are trying to replicate. Winning the contest is their “one wood” but they also have high uncontested numbers something they added in response to criticism of being all run and gun with no defensive structure through 2017-2020. Sounds familiar? I actually think of Melbourne as an older, better version of the team we are currently. They are our big brother. They’ve been through the growing pains and come out the other side as adults with a flag to prove it. But like a little brother I always feel we are a chance to beat them. Indeed we have taken them to the brink in recent times without getting the win. 3 of the last 4 games we have played them we have lost by less than a goal. Previously the games were punctuated by wild momentum swings one way then the other as both teams took turns in dominating. However last time we played them was like a game of chess, a classic goal for goal battle. For all of the fanfare about our 8-2 start to the season IMO this game was the best four quarters we played all last year.

That all said the result of this game will hinge on ball use, movement and retention, specifically ours. If we butcher it in the manner we have in recent losses against the Saints, Lions, Dogs, Pies and Swans we will lose by 20-35 points. If we move it too slow Lever/May will have a field day intercepting or Gawn/Grundy further up the ground. If we let them waltz out of our backline then we are going to see a lot of Bailey Fritsch’s shitgrinning face after he kicks a goal. So like every game I find myself torn. If we give ourselves a chance and use the ball well I believe we will win. Hopefully there has an epiphany for our players that when they move the ball well they are very capable, but how many awakenings can this team have before they realise that they’ve actually got insomnia? He’ll, most of the fans do! I’ve tipped the Blues every round so far this season except the Pies game but this week I’ll play it safe and say the Dees will win by 20-35 points.
 
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Out: Hollands (inj), Newman (inj), Hewett (inj), Cripps (inj), McKay, Durdin
In: Young, Fisher, Silvagni, Dow, Binns, E Curnow

Can't believe I am recalling Young already but with Gawn resting up forward, he's the only match up. Ed will keep his place too as there is sure to be a job to do on someone and he went okay after he was subbed in tonight.

The other in all did well in the VFL. Obviously Dow won't come in but I'll name him on form, and that leaves Cincotta as the most likely.

Kemp Weitering Saad
Boyd Young McGovern
Cottrell Kennedy Acres
Fisher Silvagni Walsh
De Koning C Curnow Motlop
Pittonet Cerra Dow

Owies, Docherty, Binns, E Curnow

Sub: Cincotta
 
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Arr0w said:
Out Hollands, Newman, Hewett ( all injured), Durds, Kemp

In Binns, Cincotta, Fog, Fisher, Young

Can't believe I am making 5 changes ( 3 forced).

Kicking straight would be nice, composure and less manic footy a given
Click to expand...

Geez, I hope we don't do Kemp dirty like that again. Ran the second most of all of our players, disposed at 87% efficiency. He should be there even if he pushes up the ground more.
 
The Old Dark Navy's said:
Geez, I hope we don't do Kemp dirty like that again. Ran the second most of all of our players, disposed at 87% efficiency. He should be there even if he pushes up the ground more.
Click to expand...

I want him in the side, but cost us 4 of the first 6 goals

He needs to have a defensive first mindset, before thinking intercept at this level, kill the ball forward or to the narrow part of the ground

At this stage, I would rather he play forward
 
Arr0w said:
I want him in the side, but cost us 4 of the first 6 goals

He needs to have a defensive first mindset, before thinking intercept at this level, kill the ball forward or to the narrow part of the ground

At this stage, I would rather he play forward
Click to expand...

Reckon you're pretty harsh putting it all on him. What happened further up the ground before it got near him? Playing him on McLean is a bit harsh. McGovern has a better leap and maybe should have taken him.
 
Changes I'm expecting for next week

Out: Hollands (inj), Newman (inj), Hewett (inj), Cripps (inj),
In: Fisher, Silvagni, fogarty, honey

centre square rotation/mids will be centred around Ed, fogarty, fisher, silvagni

Dow wont make the emergency list again...
 
The Old Dark Navy's said:
Reckon you're pretty harsh putting it all on him. What happened further up the ground before it got near him? Playing him on McLean is a bit harsh. McGovern has a better leap and maybe should have taken him.
Click to expand...
Kemp is taller than Gov

Should never of been selected to play on McLean.

This wasn't the game to drop Young. If Voss wanted Kemp in the side, he should have dropped Gov
 
Arr0w said:
Kemp is taller than Gov

Should never of been selected to play on McLean.

This wasn't the game to drop Young. If Voss wanted Kemp in the side, he should have dropped Gov
Click to expand...
Young's a destabilizing influence down there. Unfortunately we're lacking in genuine KPD stocks - it's Durdin, perhaps Marchbank then nothing.

Don't blame Voss for making the move. Damned if we do, damned if...
 
Not sure why, but really over playing 6 defenders, plus a part time Doc

Either pick 7 defenders (my preference) or leave Doc as the 7th defender

If we play 7 defenders, all our mids could rest forward

Not one single game have our small forwards fired in the same game. So, would rather we try Fog as part of the mix. Durds needs a rest

Please, play Harry as a traditional CHF, TDK FF, Charlie roaming
 
I've gone from extremely disappointed to feeling the old comfort of going to the footy next week with zero expectations of being able to win. That has done it for me.
 
Out: Hollands (inj), Newman (inj), Hewett (inj), Cripps (inj), Cerra (susp), E Curnow (susp)
In: Binns, Cincotta, Fisher, Dow, Young, Fogarty (sub)

B: Gov, Young, Kemp
HB: Saad, Weitering, Boyd
C: Acres, Walsh, Cottrell
HF: Owies, C Curnow, Fisher
F: Motlop, McKay, Durdin
Fol: Pittonet, Kennedy, Doc
Int: Dow, Binns, Cincotta, TDK

A few lucky there are likely to be so many forced changes.
Could have brought back JSOS, but if we're going to commit to a new role for him, we should follow through with it.
Dow gets his chance with Cripps out.
 
IN: Cincotta, Fisher, Dow, Binns, Fogarty
OUT: Newman, Ed, Hewett, Hollands, Durdin

Saad Weitering Kemp
McGovern Young Docherty
Binns Cripps Acres
Fisher McKay Fogarty
Motlop Curnow Owies
Pittonet Kennedy Cerra
Cincotta, Dow, TDK, Cottrell (Boyd)
 
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