Ultimate Glory 2023 Trade speculation and Shinbeggars discussion

[Strapping Young Lad]

Apologies I was wrong you don’t argue like my partner. You argue like my 6 year old. Could have slightly done better with trading and would like to focus on one more draft = throwing toys out of the cot. Impressive. And yes don’t give opinion on what might happen must wait until it happens and just comment on that. Next time may I suggest you try arguing “full harded.”

Double down if you like.

 

[Nugett]

We all know know that elite end talent from the draft are worth their weight in gold, but let's also approach our list from this perspective...

I'd say it would almost be universal that over the past 24 months of football, our 'fab 5' and most important players are...

Sicily
Day
Newcombe
Moore
Lewis

Only one was a first round draft pick.
1 was a third rounder.
1 was a 4th rounder.
1 was a 5th rounder.
And one was a mid season rookie.

I would also include Nash in that group and he was a cat b rookie

 

[burger09]

Over the last few years we have drafted the following first and second round talents.

2019) Pick 13 - Day
2019) Pick 29 - Maginess

2020) Pick 6 - DGB
2020) Pick 29 - Mitchell
2020) Pick 35 - Downie

2021) Pick 7 - Ward
2021) Pick 23 - Butler
2021) Pick 26 - MacDonald

2022) Pick 7 - Mackenzie
2022) Pick 18 - Weddle

2023) Pick 4 - TBA
2023) Pick TBA - McCabe

That doesn't include absolutely hitting the jackpot with Newcombe, who is clearly a first round talent (in hindsight) based on output. Which would mean, post this draft, that we've brought in 8 first round talents in 5 drafts.

I'd probably argue that MacDonald is a first round talent too based on current output. If you did a re-draft he'd be around 14/15.

It's still early days for some, but that's some really good drafting IMO - Downie was a miss, obviously. But the only question marks for me now are DGB and Butler. These could hurt if they turn out to be busts, given we need talls and small forwards. Everyone else will be a quality player for us though.

I see that as a solid core of talent to build around and add to.
I'm not as sold as some as to the certainty of that list having the star quality we need to be a contender.

Jagging a bonafied alpha star this draft would have been the cherry we needed.

Walter or Reid would have been perfect.
Not to be. There's still hope at our pick, but no certainty. Much like our list.

 

[A Diakos]

Over only two drafts that’s my point we don’t have a big enough base to trade in players yet.

we have a good base

Hardwick blanc Seamus

sicily scrim impey


weddle newk. amon
Reeves Nash day

ginivan lewis breust

Gunston chol Moore


Bench worpel ward MacDonald Mckenzie

med sub Fynn

Emergency
Hustwaite Jitah Grainger pick 4 d ambrosio

....................

others meek mcabe Morrison frost ramsden beau mcdonald

that s a very good base .....go shopping for 1/2 quality bookends

 

[kirbatron]

I see that as a solid core of talent to build around and add to.
I'm not as sold as some as to the certainty of that list having the star quality we need to be a contender.

Jagging a bonafied alpha star this draft would have been the cherry we needed.

Walter or Reid would have been perfect.
Not to be. There's still hope at our pick, but no certainty. Much like our list.

I currently hold this view re talent but we did see the emergence of Day, Newk, Lewis.

Weddle, Ward, Cmacs need to emerge now. But I think we need more.

Next season will tell us more

 

[Mercy Seat]

I just had a look at our playing list in 2021 and only 20 are on our list in 2023. that's two offseasons and more than half of our list has changed. and if you go back to when we started to "hit the draft again" (2019 with Day) the change is even more significant.

I think we’ve had 38 player departures since end of 2020 season

 

[TheFourPillars]

I think we’ve had 38 player departures since end of 2020 season

And yet for some its not enough

 

[tommyk72]

And yet for some its not enough

I don't think that's the point being made. It's that the talent isn't elite enough to get us to a flag. We have some great and exciting players, and my hope is that they mature both individually and as a group to get us to a point where we make the top 4 for a few years and challenge for a flag in mid to late 2020s. But I think we're absolutely not guaranteed. Our lack of high calibre KPPs is still a huge gap for me.

 

[TheFourPillars]

I don't think that's the point being made. It's that the talent isn't elite enough to get us to a flag. We have some great and exciting players, and my hope is that they mature both individually and as a group to get us to a point where we make the top 4 for a few years and challenge for a flag in mid to late 2020s. But I think we're absolutely not guaranteed. Our lack of high calibre KPPs is still a huge gap for me.

Was Sam mitchell elite? Did he start that way. I understand we had franklin and rioli. The others were brought in who were not considered elite talents there are still some who claim that rioli is overrated. Gunners was a trade gibson silk hale lake. Breust was a rookie. Worked really hard to become a star. Like the rest of them. There are some players on our list that are highly driven and talent laden to make this transition. We still need to fill a few holes but we r too good as a team to be finishing low on the ladder and thats the issue for some. We will claim a high end talent this year and possibly try for two along with Mccabe who may go top 12 if not top 10 so if we get 8 then thats 3 high end draft picks at worst 2.

 

[Colloquy]

I don't think that's the point being made. It's that the talent isn't elite enough to get us to a flag. We have some great and exciting players, and my hope is that they mature both individually and as a group to get us to a point where we make the top 4 for a few years and challenge for a flag in mid to late 2020s. But I think we're absolutely not guaranteed. Our lack of high calibre KPPs is still a huge gap for me.

Agree we have a Key position player that hasn’t yet played a full season either and is 25 because of injuries.

 

[Yummy5454]

Please stop comparing this team to the 3pt squad. While we should obviously try to emulate their success, it’s not necessarily productive to compare. This is a new era of hawks footy.

We all recognise the need to hit the draft hard. But how many teams have languished down the bottom for years, amassing high end draft picks, for not a whole lot of success? At some point, the mentality has to shift and the group has to be ready to take that next step, whether or not it results in instant gratification.

The crew in charge of our list are doing fantastic work. The amount of progress we’ve made in the last 24 months is staggering. I say keep the faith and dare to dream!

 

[DrAbs]

Yeah I 100% agree it was AC who sold the farm and a Young kid who came runner up in the Rising Star for those players.

Burto got robbed. He was one of my faves at the time and probably our best young player. I loved Chad at the Power too especially during his AA year, he was electric. So I had mixed emotions about that one but it still hurt losing Burton. Clarko really ruined that.

 

[DrAbs]

We all know know that elite end talent from the draft are worth their weight in gold, but let's also approach our list from this perspective...

I'd say it would almost be universal that over the past 24 months of football, our 'fab 5' and most important players are...

Sicily
Day
Newcombe
Moore
Lewis

Only one was a first round draft pick.
1 was a third rounder.
1 was a 4th rounder.
1 was a 5th rounder.
And one was a mid season rookie.

Don't forget the frosting on the cake, Samuel Frost.

 

[DrAbs]

we have a good base

Hardwick blanc Seamus

sicily scrim impey


weddle newk. amon
Reeves Nash day

ginivan lewis breust

Gunston chol Moore


Bench worpel ward MacDonald Mckenzie

med sub Fynn

Emergency
Hustwaite Jitah Grainger pick 4 d ambrosio

....................

others meek mcabe Morrison frost ramsden beau mcdonald

that s a very good base .....go shopping for 1/2 quality bookends

You have 4 midfielders on the bench...

The forward line seems reasonable. I'd just switch Weddle & Ward (more versatility off the bench), MacKenzie to HB for Impey and have CJ on the bench instead of Impey.

 

[DrAbs]

And yet for some its not enough

Certainly proves Damo's point donnit?

 

[Howe Amazing]

From last years draft McKenzie and Weddle look really good but Hustwaite looks just as good to me

 

[tommyk72]

Was Sam mitchell elite? Did he start that way. I understand we had franklin and rioli. The others were brought in who were not considered elite talents there are still some who claim that rioli is overrated. Gunners was a trade gibson silk hale lake. Breust was a rookie. Worked really hard to become a star. Like the rest of them. There are some players on our list that are highly driven and talent laden to make this transition. We still need to fill a few holes but we r too good as a team to be finishing low on the ladder and thats the issue for some. We will claim a high end talent this year and possibly try for two along with Mccabe who may go top 12 if not top 10 so if we get 8 then thats 3 high end draft picks at worst 2.

I unfortunately won’t have the chance to do the analysis, but I’d be interested if someone out there knows the distribution of round picks for our 2008 and three pear teams (I.e. 10 first round, 8 second, etc.). I’d love to see that compared with our current list.

Maybe I’m being pessimistic (I feel I’m being realistic), but I think we’ve got some great talent which will hopefully equal some of the greats from those eras. But I’m not quite seeing it yet - particularly two tall forwards like roughie and Buddy.

 

[tommyk72]

Please stop comparing this team to the 3pt squad. While we should obviously try to emulate their success, it’s not necessarily productive to compare. This is a new era of hawks footy.

We all recognise the need to hit the draft hard. But how many teams have languished down the bottom for years, amassing high end draft picks, for not a whole lot of success? At some point, the mentality has to shift and the group has to be ready to take that next step, whether or not it results in instant gratification.

The crew in charge of our list are doing fantastic work. The amount of progress we’ve made in the last 24 months is staggering. I say keep the faith and dare to dream!

This is a fare point. We don’t have to be as good as the 3peat team. Just good enough to get into the top 4 repeatedly. I think we’re on the way, but there are some very good sides there, and others at the bottom who will rise again soon.

 

[triangulation_squared]

If you look at teams that have contending and have rebuilt quickly, there is an around the margin component of jagging a father-son superstar. Daicos x2 at Collingwood. Ashcroft x2 Brisbane Liberatore, Darcy Bulldogs Viney Melbourne.

Maginness looks like he is working out. MCcabe could be just as good. Then if you can jag one or two more elite father sons over the next 5 years, in addition to bringing in elite Irish rugby players, random mid season rookies from Poowong who can ragdoll opposition, and continue to draft best talent available, you're going to have a list that has some extraordinary resilience and execution capability.

It would be great to see us continue to experiment with left field experiments now O'hara is gone. If one in 3 turn into Conor Nash

11

Conor Nash

Age

25

Ht

198cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

8.7

2star

K

3.9

2star

HB

4.8

3star

M

2.0

2star

T

3.1

5star

CL

0.3

2star

No current season stats available

D

8.4

3star

K

4.2

2star

HB

4.2

4star

M

2.4

3star

T

4.0

5star

CL

0.2

2star

you are systematically growing trees. They may take 3-5 years but it is worth innovating nonetheless. Considering how basketball is evolving with 7 footers now playing point, I can't help but thinking that we could do more to bring in some tall timber with Natanui qualities from international or local basketball or volleyball leagues.

Providing scholarship for indigenous talent should have a place in the club as well, but for obvious reasons that takes more cultural understanding than your typical football club board possesses.

 

[Topiary]

If you look at teams that have contending and have rebuilt quickly, there is an around the margin component of jagging a father-son superstar. Daicos x2 at Collingwood. Ashcroft x2 Brisbane Liberatore, Darcy Bulldogs Viney Melbourne.

Maginness looks like he is working out. MCcabe could be just as good. Then if you can jag one or two more elite father sons over the next 5 years, in addition to bringing in elite Irish rugby players, random mid season rookies from Poowong who can ragdoll opposition, and continue to draft best talent available, you're going to have a list that has some extraordinary resilience and execution capability.

It would be great to see us continue to experiment with left field experiments now O'hara is gone. If one in 3 turn into Conor Nash you are systematically growing trees. They may take 3-5 years but it is worth innovating nonetheless. Considering how basketball is evolving with 7 footers now playing point, I can't help but thinking that we could do more to bring in some tall timber with Natanui qualities from international or local basketball or volleyball leagues.

Providing scholarship for indigenous talent should have a place in the club as well, but for obvious reasons that takes more cultural understanding than your typical football club board possesses.

Agree, but you forgot free agency.

 

[The Spirit of Cricket]

I unfortunately won’t have the chance to do the analysis, but I’d be interested if someone out there knows the distribution of round picks for our 2008 and three pear teams (I.e. 10 first round, 8 second, etc.). I’d love to see that compared with our current list.

Maybe I’m being pessimistic (I feel I’m being realistic), but I think we’ve got some great talent which will hopefully equal some of the greats from those eras. But I’m not quite seeing it yet - particularly two tall forwards like roughie and Buddy.

yeah we still have some clear gaps but the idea that they can only be acquired via drafting in the top five – and therefore implying we need to keep losing more – doesn't sit well with me. consider the average KPP takes 3-4 years to really make an impact, if we targeted one in next year's draft we'd be looking at 2027-8 until we start playing finals and contending again. that would make a decade without finals and basically 5-7 years in the bottom 4. * that. it's time for this team to start winning.

i think ppl are still triggered from the end of the Clarko era when we were like the oldest team in the comp while getting smashed every week. where the only bright spot was Day. we're by far the youngest now with a bunch of first-round picks (or equivalent young talents). we don't need to keep getting younger, we just need a steady flow of talent from all avenues while addressing list needs

next year will be a great test for the team because other sides are going to start taking us more seriously and we will also have a more functional forward line. we should be able to kick a winning score. so if we regress significantly we may have to reconsider our strategy. but if a better fwd line gets us in the 8-12 bracket then i'd say targeting trade and FA to make a push for finals in 2025 is a good call

 

[The Spirit of Cricket]

alternatively we could just finish bottom 4 for the next 5 years, be totally incompetent and then get hoisted out of our self-inflicted hole by the AFL who will basically guarantee we will be good with a smorgasbord of draft picks. that's probably a fine strategy too

 

[The Golden Glenferrie]

alternatively we could just finish bottom 4 for the next 5 years, be totally incompetent and then get hoisted out of our self-inflicted hole by the AFL who will basically guarantee we will be good with a smorgasbord of draft picks. that's probably a fine strategy too

Excellent strategy.

 

[Bugs1977]

Burto got robbed. He was one of my faves at the time and probably our best young player. I loved Chad at the Power too especially during his AA year, he was electric. So I had mixed emotions about that one but it still hurt losing Burton. Clarko really ruined that.

To tell you the truth I found Burton hard to cheer for and that was validated by the playing group that was fond of him as a teammate either. Apparently he wasn't very well liked due to being an arrogant douche.

 

[smish]

To tell you the truth I found Burton hard to cheer for and that was validated by the playing group that was fond of him as a teammate either. Apparently he wasn't very well liked due to being an arrogant douche.

Was hated by most of his school cohort and local footy club. Not a good person.