Ultimate Glory 2023 Trade speculation and Shinbeggars discussion

[KermitJagger]

I unfortunately won’t have the chance to do the analysis, but I’d be interested if someone out there knows the distribution of round picks for our 2008 and three pear teams (I.e. 10 first round, 8 second, etc.). I’d love to see that compared with our current list.

Maybe I’m being pessimistic (I feel I’m being realistic), but I think we’ve got some great talent which will hopefully equal some of the greats from those eras. But I’m not quite seeing it yet - particularly two tall forwards like roughie and Buddy.

In 2015 Hawthorn had 11 first round picks -

Spoiler: List

Hodge - Pick 1
Rough - Pick 2
O'Rourke - Pick 2
Hale - Pick 7
Lewis - Pick 7
Ben McEvoy - Pick 9
Burgoyne - Pick 12
Frawley - Pick 12
Rioli - Pick 12
Birchall - Pick 14
Schoey - Pick 16

We only drafted 6 of those, 5 were traded in.

In 2023 we have 8 -

Spoiler: List

Wings - Pick 6
DGB - Pick 6
Scrim - Pick 7
Ward - Pick 7
Frenchie - Pick 7
Day - Pick 13
Stephens - Pick 16
Weddle - Pick 18

I say this all the time, but we don't need to be as good as our threepeat team to win a flag now. It's almost impossible for a club to be that good again, and to continue comparing ourselves to that team is doing current players a disservice. To really hammer the point home about the difference in team quality now vs then, we won our flags with 5 forwards better than Collingwood's best forward. Rough, Buddy, Gunners, Cyril and Breust would all be first picked ahead of either Mihocek and Elliott.

If you tried to pick a best 22 out of our 2015 squad and Collingwood's 2023 squad they'd be lucky to get a handful of players in. We don't need to be as good as 2008 Hawthorn, or threepeat Hawthorn, we just need to be better than the 2024 and onwards version of other teams.

 

[bigmaxi]

What assets are required to get a free agent?

Half a dozen Steak Knives and the odd colander should do it. Or a kidney if dealing with the scum

 

[Nugett]

alternatively we could just finish bottom 4 for the next 5 years, be totally incompetent and then get hoisted out of our self-inflicted hole by the AFL who will basically guarantee we will be good with a smorgasbord of draft picks. that's probably a fine strategy too

Unfortunately by that strategy the hand baggers will be using the same strategy by then and will get priority.

 

[DrAbs]

To tell you the truth I found Burton hard to cheer for and that was validated by the playing group that was fond of him as a teammate either. Apparently he wasn't very well liked due to being an arrogant douche.

Well I can see a bit of that but I'm not talking about his personality. I meant the year he had in 2017 I think was pretty darn good considering we had like no talent.

 

[DrAbs]

If you look at teams that have contending and have rebuilt quickly, there is an around the margin component of jagging a father-son superstar. Daicos x2 at Collingwood. Ashcroft x2 Brisbane Liberatore, Darcy Bulldogs Viney Melbourne.

Maginness looks like he is working out. MCcabe could be just as good. Then if you can jag one or two more elite father sons over the next 5 years, in addition to bringing in elite Irish rugby players, random mid season rookies from Poowong who can ragdoll opposition, and continue to draft best talent available, you're going to have a list that has some extraordinary resilience and execution capability.

It would be great to see us continue to experiment with left field experiments now O'hara is gone. If one in 3 turn into Conor Nash you are systematically growing trees. They may take 3-5 years but it is worth innovating nonetheless. Considering how basketball is evolving with 7 footers now playing point, I can't help but thinking that we could do more to bring in some tall timber with Natanui qualities from international or local basketball or volleyball leagues.

Providing scholarship for indigenous talent should have a place in the club as well, but for obvious reasons that takes more cultural understanding than your typical football club board possesses.

Those Ashcroft boys are something else. Imagine getting the best player in the draft twice in 3 years despite finishing top 2 and making finals runs in all of those years.

 

[Brishawk]

In 2015 Hawthorn had 11 Top 10 picks -

Spoiler: List

Hodge - Pick 1
Rough - Pick 2
O'Rourke - Pick 2
Hale - Pick 7
Lewis - Pick 7
Ben McEvoy - Pick 9
Burgoyne - Pick 12
Frawley - Pick 12
Rioli - Pick 12
Birchall - Pick 14
Schoey - Pick 16

We only drafted 6 of those, 5 were traded in.

In 2023 we have 8 -

Spoiler: List

Wings - Pick 6
DGB - Pick 6
Scrim - Pick 7
Ward - Pick 7
Frenchie - Pick 7
Day - Pick 13
Stephens - Pick 16
Weddle - Pick 18

I say this all the time, but we don't need to be as good as our threepeat team to win a flag now. It's almost impossible for a club to be that good again, and to continue comparing ourselves to that team is doing current players a disservice. To really hammer the point home about the difference in team quality now vs then, we won our flags with 5 forwards better than Collingwood's best forward. Rough, Buddy, Gunners, Cyril and Breust would all be first picked ahead of either Mihocek and Elliott.

If you tried to pick a best 22 out of our 2015 squad and Collingwood's 2023 squad they'd be lucky to get a handful of players in. We don't need to be as good as 2008 Hawthorn, or threepeat Hawthorn, we just need to be better than the 2024 and onwards version of other teams.

Sticky this post please

 

[eldorado]

In 2015 Hawthorn had 11 Top 10 picks -


Hodge - Pick 1
Rough - Pick 2
O'Rourke - Pick 2
Hale - Pick 7
Lewis - Pick 7
Ben McEvoy - Pick 9
Burgoyne - Pick 12
Frawley - Pick 12
Rioli - Pick 12
Birchall - Pick 14
Schoey - Pick 16

We only drafted 6 of those, 5 were traded in.

I'm slightly concerned that five of our top 10 picks weren't top 10 picks...

 

[arupist]

And O'Rourke doesn't count.

 

[KeeperLeaguer]

And O'Rourke doesn't count.

I was really big on Jono when we got him, thought he'd spread his wings with us and become a first-picked mid.
Mind you, I also thought Thorp would be a 200-game CHF for us which tells you a lot about my judgement

 

[Dewnior]

I'm sure we have a plan for the two picks in the 60s. We can either trade them pre-draft or live trade. Those picks will come in to late 40s early 50s picks after matched bids.

 

[Flukey!]

In 2015 Hawthorn had 11 Top 10 picks -

Spoiler: List

Hodge - Pick 1
Rough - Pick 2
O'Rourke - Pick 2
Hale - Pick 7
Lewis - Pick 7
Ben McEvoy - Pick 9
Burgoyne - Pick 12
Frawley - Pick 12
Rioli - Pick 12
Birchall - Pick 14
Schoey - Pick 16

We only drafted 6 of those, 5 were traded in.

In 2023 we have 8 -

Spoiler: List

Wings - Pick 6
DGB - Pick 6
Scrim - Pick 7
Ward - Pick 7
Frenchie - Pick 7
Day - Pick 13
Stephens - Pick 16
Weddle - Pick 18

I say this all the time, but we don't need to be as good as our threepeat team to win a flag now. It's almost impossible for a club to be that good again, and to continue comparing ourselves to that team is doing current players a disservice. To really hammer the point home about the difference in team quality now vs then, we won our flags with 5 forwards better than Collingwood's best forward. Rough, Buddy, Gunners, Cyril and Breust would all be first picked ahead of either Mihocek and Elliott.

If you tried to pick a best 22 out of our 2015 squad and Collingwood's 2023 squad they'd be lucky to get a handful of players in. We don't need to be as good as 2008 Hawthorn, or threepeat Hawthorn, we just need to be better than the 2024 and onwards version of other teams.

Great list but I think you mean top 20?

This year we will add two more in pick 4 and McCabe.

Not getting ahead of myself, but I expect we will be playing and winning finals in '26-30+

 

[Flukey!]

I was really big on Jono when we got him, thought he'd spread his wings with us and become a first-picked mid.
Mind you, I also thought Thorp would be a 200-game CHF for us which tells you a lot about my judgement

We all get some wrong.

I can remember being excited about Brett Johnson. He was such a smooth mover.
He didn't even play 40 games for us.

 

[lyger]

We all get some wrong.

I can remember being excited about Brett Johnson. He was such a smooth mover.
He didn't even play 40 games for us.

I recall he had good ball winning ability but I think lacked speed and penetration with his disposals. When I hear Johnson, I think of the period when we had the likes of Ries, Clarke, Greene - had similar limitations with speed, size, strength and skills. So different to the midfield group we have today.

 

[Colloquy]

In 2015 Hawthorn had 11 Top 10 picks -

Spoiler: List

Hodge - Pick 1
Rough - Pick 2
O'Rourke - Pick 2
Hale - Pick 7
Lewis - Pick 7
Ben McEvoy - Pick 9
Burgoyne - Pick 12
Frawley - Pick 12
Rioli - Pick 12
Birchall - Pick 14
Schoey - Pick 16

We only drafted 6 of those, 5 were traded in.

In 2023 we have 8 -

Spoiler: List

Wings - Pick 6
DGB - Pick 6
Scrim - Pick 7
Ward - Pick 7
Frenchie - Pick 7
Day - Pick 13
Stephens - Pick 16
Weddle - Pick 18

I say this all the time, but we don't need to be as good as our threepeat team to win a flag now. It's almost impossible for a club to be that good again, and to continue comparing ourselves to that team is doing current players a disservice. To really hammer the point home about the difference in team quality now vs then, we won our flags with 5 forwards better than Collingwood's best forward. Rough, Buddy, Gunners, Cyril and Breust would all be first picked ahead of either Mihocek and Elliott.

If you tried to pick a best 22 out of our 2015 squad and Collingwood's 2023 squad they'd be lucky to get a handful of players in. We don't need to be as good as 2008 Hawthorn, or threepeat Hawthorn, we just need to be better than the 2024 and onwards version of other teams.

You can’t say never again there will be a team of this talent with that many high end picks again you just never know what the future holds and they draft correctly.

O yeah by the way North Melbourne says hold my beer.

 

[The Spirit of Cricket]

In 2015 Hawthorn had 11 Top 10 picks -

Spoiler: List

Hodge - Pick 1
Rough - Pick 2
O'Rourke - Pick 2
Hale - Pick 7
Lewis - Pick 7
Ben McEvoy - Pick 9
Burgoyne - Pick 12
Frawley - Pick 12
Rioli - Pick 12
Birchall - Pick 14
Schoey - Pick 16

We only drafted 6 of those, 5 were traded in.

In 2023 we have 8 -

Spoiler: List

Wings - Pick 6
DGB - Pick 6
Scrim - Pick 7
Ward - Pick 7
Frenchie - Pick 7
Day - Pick 13
Stephens - Pick 16
Weddle - Pick 18

I say this all the time, but we don't need to be as good as our threepeat team to win a flag now. It's almost impossible for a club to be that good again, and to continue comparing ourselves to that team is doing current players a disservice. To really hammer the point home about the difference in team quality now vs then, we won our flags with 5 forwards better than Collingwood's best forward. Rough, Buddy, Gunners, Cyril and Breust would all be first picked ahead of either Mihocek and Elliott.

If you tried to pick a best 22 out of our 2015 squad and Collingwood's 2023 squad they'd be lucky to get a handful of players in. We don't need to be as good as 2008 Hawthorn, or threepeat Hawthorn, we just need to be better than the 2024 and onwards version of other teams.

Our 2023 side would give our 2015 side some trouble in a regular season game I reckon. We often struggled against those annoying young, fast on the outside teams in our threepeat years. In a final, though, we'd beat ourselves by 100+ points.

 

[tommyk72]

In 2015 Hawthorn had 11 Top 10 picks -

Spoiler: List

Hodge - Pick 1
Rough - Pick 2
O'Rourke - Pick 2
Hale - Pick 7
Lewis - Pick 7
Ben McEvoy - Pick 9
Burgoyne - Pick 12
Frawley - Pick 12
Rioli - Pick 12
Birchall - Pick 14
Schoey - Pick 16

We only drafted 6 of those, 5 were traded in.

In 2023 we have 8 -

Spoiler: List

Wings - Pick 6
DGB - Pick 6
Scrim - Pick 7
Ward - Pick 7
Frenchie - Pick 7
Day - Pick 13
Stephens - Pick 16
Weddle - Pick 18

I say this all the time, but we don't need to be as good as our threepeat team to win a flag now. It's almost impossible for a club to be that good again, and to continue comparing ourselves to that team is doing current players a disservice. To really hammer the point home about the difference in team quality now vs then, we won our flags with 5 forwards better than Collingwood's best forward. Rough, Buddy, Gunners, Cyril and Breust would all be first picked ahead of either Mihocek and Elliott.

If you tried to pick a best 22 out of our 2015 squad and Collingwood's 2023 squad they'd be lucky to get a handful of players in. We don't need to be as good as 2008 Hawthorn, or threepeat Hawthorn, we just need to be better than the 2024 and onwards version of other teams.

Thanks for doing the analysis. Really appreciate it, and very revealing. I agree with your comment re being as good as the 2024 teams.

One thing that does stand out from me is that we have 5/11 talls in the first list, of which 4 played pretty regularly. I'm really worried about our lack of high quality talls.

That doesn't mean that we should be trying to finish in the bottom 3 to get good picks, that means we should be trying to make aggressive trades to help us rebalance our list with quality talls (i.e. convert some of the really high quality players that play in positions we have an abundance of into trade picks).

 

[tommyk72]

I was really big on Jono when we got him, thought he'd spread his wings with us and become a first-picked mid.
Mind you, I also thought Thorp would be a 200-game CHF for us which tells you a lot about my judgement

I'm holding out hope, but I'm getting the same senses re Stephens as I did re O'Rourke.

 

[Colloquy]

Thanks for doing the analysis. Really appreciate it, and very revealing. I agree with your comment re being as good as the 2024 teams.

One thing that does stand out from me is that we have 5/11 talls in the first list, of which 4 played pretty regularly. I'm really worried about our lack of high quality talls.

That doesn't mean that we should be trying to finish in the bottom 3 to get good picks, that means we should be trying to make aggressive trades to help us rebalance our list with quality talls (i.e. convert some of the really high quality players that play in positions we have an abundance of into trade picks).

Yep like GWS do if they want a player like for example Aaron Cadman.

And they always seem to get a pick in front of there first round pick if they have academy kid that could go very high in the draft.

I wonder what we would have done if we didn’t have pick 4 but had a pick around where McCabe is rated in this draft.

I think we would have drafted McCabe as our first pick and not aim for a top 10 pick before the bid came where GWS would have been aggressive to get another pick we need to be the same in this rebuild.

 

[eldorado]

I'm holding out hope, but I'm getting the same senses re Stephens as I did re O'Rourke.

At least he hasn't had the chronically fragile hamstrings that wiped out any chance that O'Rourke may have had to get up to speed...

 

[hawkinoz]

I'm sure we have a plan for the two picks in the 60s. We can either trade them pre-draft or live trade. Those picks will come in to late 40s early 50s picks after matched bids.

Got some news for you, posting below even at the risk of upsetting a few

We only have 4 list spots, so can't take 62 & 63 to draft. Effort spent getting those picks are wasted unless we find a way to trade them to someone for F4 picks before draft picks are finalised. Ideally I want us to try and get one of the Suns picks in 20's or atleast 30's & if we can bundle one of our 40's pick with the 62+63, that would be ideal.

But they have the same draft pick/list spot pressure as us. They hold 24, 26, 27, 32, 36, 38, 66, 71. I doubt they are trading a single high pick for 3 lower picks. They may do the trade on draft night if we can bring the picks in. We will need to delist 2 people to get pick 62 & 63 in to draft and everyone has contract for 2024. Not sure if we can put Wingard on LTI from now itself to sneak one pick in.

 

[KermitJagger]

I'm slightly concerned that five of our top 10 picks weren't top 10 picks...

I made a revision and included all first rounders but didn't update that part. Whoops!

 

[FB19]

Got some news for you, posting below even at the risk of upsetting a few

What list size concession do the suns have going into 2024? I can’t find it. They had 48 total (39,7,2) and have lost 5 primary 4 rookie A leaving 34,3,2. If that hasn’t changed they might deal for our 40s picks not sure anyone else would be interested.

 

[Bugs1977]

I'm holding out hope, but I'm getting the same senses re Stephens as I did re O'Rourke.

Stephens had a leg break didn't he? If so there might be something in it that hasn't allowed him to progress.

 

[grumbleguts]

It’s not that we think we have not done a good job it’s the crap that get dished out that we have hit the draft hard when all we have really done is use the picks we have and traded up in one year to get another player.

Hitting the draft hard is trading out players to get as many picks before pick 20 over multiple drafts like we did from 2004-2007.

Like for example letting Sicily go as a FA to get two first top 10 picks in 2022.

Trading out Lewis for a top 10/20 pick like we did with Thompson and Hay.

That’s hitting the draft hard is not what we have done we are just drafting players each year.

And now we have stopped doing that when we really don’t have a big enough base to get top up players to move up the ladder taking us away from the top kids in the draft I hope we aren’t building a list like the late 90’s early 2000’s with this half-hearted list build.

I am tempted to say this is really dumb, but maybe I misunderstood what you meant. It looks like you're saying this is a half hearted rebuild. But you couldn't be saying that without a lobotomy.

 

[eldorado]

Got some news for you, posting below even at the risk of upsetting a few...We only have 4 list spots, so can't take 62 & 63 to draft

That may or may not be true.

It depends on how many senior list spots we have, not total.

We may be eligible to use all 6 picks if only 32 of our list are on the senior list.

We won't, of course, but the AFL will allow it.