Autopsy AFL 2023 Round 21 - Crows v Suns Sat August 5th 2:10pm EST (AO)

[Wosh]

12th v 14th

AFL 2023 PREMIERSHIP SEASON ROUND 21
ADELAIDE V GOLD COAST
SATURDAY AUGUST 5TH 2:10PM EST (ADELAIDE OVAL)

Live scores on BigFooty during the match.

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Teams
CROWS
B: B.Smith, J.Borlase, M.Keane
HB: M.Michalanney, J.Worrell, W.Milera
C: C.Jones, J.Dawson - C, M.Hinge
HF: B.Keays, D.Fogarty, S.McAdam
F: J.Rachele, T.Walker, H.Schoenberg
FOLL: R.O’Brien, R.Laird, M.Crouch

I/C: R.Thilthorpe, J.Soligo, L.Murphy, L.Nankervis
EMG: R.Sloane, S.Berry, E.Himmelberg, N.McHenry

IN: J.Borlase, J.Rachele
OUT: L.Pedlar (Managed), R.Sloane (Sub), J.Butts (Injured)

SUNS
B: C.Ballard, S.Collins, M.Andrew
HB: B.Ellis, R.Atkins, S.Lemmens
C: W.Powell, S.Flanders, B.Ainsworth
HF: B.Humphrey, J.Lukosius, D.Swallow
F: N.Holman, B.King, L.Casboult
FOLL: J.Witts - C, M.Rowell, N.Anderson

I/C: J.Farrar, E.Hollands, D.Macpherson, M.Rosas
EMG: S.Day, B.Long, J.Sharp, J.Tsitas

IN: None
OUT: T.Miller (Suspension)


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[Crow till I die]

Home game - crows are a vasty different proposition there..will win by around 3 goals

 

[JackFlash]

Crows are the best team outside the 8 and will win this easily by 30 points.

 

[Rankine2Rachele]

Football's a funny old game, and I'm never 100% confident, but I think we can see the Suns set on Saturday and win by a couple of goals.

 

[hippyhippy]

crows play totally different at AO than away. Suns also the same. Thus the crows should win, however if the Suns bring the intensity they've been playing like recently, they could easily win.

 

[timokane]

crows by 7 points

 

[Go the Guts]

If we can do what we did to the 2nd ranked team, we should win this by 5-10 goals. But realistically probably a couple of goals.

 

[TubbsFarquhar]

It would be very Crows for us to drop this one, and win at the Gabba next week.

I can see it happening too. We lift a few gears against the top 4, but struggle against the mid-table teams around us.

 

[kreglze]

Shouldn't go into this game fearing the Crows, got them earlier this year, but Adelaide Oval is a different prospect.

We pretty much have 4 elimination finals if we want to make finals from here on in.

Adelaide favourites, but it isn't foregone conclusion some think.

 

[Dangerousfield]

I'm sure most of us were pleased to see GC make a statement last week. But in their history, whenever GC win a game that makes you think they are finally on their way up, they invariably put in a lame effort and lose.

Crows a five goal better side at AO, will win this, maybe comfortably.

 

[Hobbes]

If we can do what we did to the 2nd ranked team, we should win this by 5-10 goals. But realistically probably a couple of goals.

I think we both know that their win-loss record flattered them - they're not the second-best team.

 

[The Kings Ransom]

Suns won 3 of the last 4 against the Crows - the 1 Adelaide win was at AO
Averaging >100 points a game, despite the shortened game in 2020

Adelaide missing their tall defenders

If the Suns can win the midfield I think we're in with a shout.

 

[Go the Guts]

I think we both know that their win-loss record flattered them - they're not the second-best team.

Possibly, but they are the 2nd ranked team.

 

[Go the Guts]

View attachment 1762051

Suns won 3 of the last 4 against the Crows - the 1 Adelaide win was at AO
Averaging >100 points a game, despite the shortened game in 2020

Adelaide missing their tall defenders

If the Suns can win the midfield I think we're in with a shout.

We had all our first choice tall defenders out last week too and still smacked 2nd ranked Port on their home ground.

I remember how confident your mob was against us last time in Darwin.

Completely different ball game at AO. Your defence will struggle to contain our forward line. Walker has gone up another notch or 5 since Darwin too.

 

[Golumless]

Bit of a tricky match up as Gold Coast has enough in their best 22 to make things awkward if we're not at our best. Still, I think we're professional enough to get the job done at home.

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

Tough game. Anywhere else and the GoCo would romp it in. But I reckon at home, the Crows get it done

 

[Philth]

Crows played their GF last week, and GC are a far better side than their ladder position suggests.

Suns by 14.

 

[simmo97]

Crows played their GF last week, and GC are a far better side than their ladder position suggests.

Suns by 14.

U could easily make the same 2 arguments as to why the crows will win.

 

[GC2015]

Seems like both teams are playing to keep their finals chances alive in this game. Essentially sudden death for both clubs given they are siting on 9 wins and most think 12.5 wins will be required to play finals this year. So a loss here resigns both sides to 12 maximum wins this season.

I think the key match up will be Tex Walker v Sam Collins. Both players are in form and can have a big influence if they play well. As always, the midfield battle will be of high importance and should determine which team gets more forward line opportunities.

If we play like we did against Brisbane then we're winning this game. I'll say Suns by 22 points.

 

[Go the Guts]

Crows played their GF last week, and GC are a far better side than their ladder position suggests.

Suns by 14.

Just a thought....... Adelaide lost 3 games by a combined total of 7 points - Collingwood by 1 and 2 points, and Melbourne (at the MCG) by 4.

So hypothetically, we kick 10 more points total, and we win those 3 games and are............currently 4th on the ladder. (over Melbourne who would have lost that game to us)

Does that mean we are actually also far better than our ladder position?

Seems like both teams are playing to keep their finals chances alive in this game. Essentially sudden death for both clubs given they are siting on 9 wins and most think 12.5 wins will be required to play finals this year. So a loss here resigns both sides to 12 maximum wins this season.

I think the key match up will be Tex Walker v Sam Collins. Both players are in form and can have a big influence if they play well. As always, the midfield battle will be of high importance and should determine which team gets more forward line opportunities.

If we play like we did against Brisbane then we're winning this game. I'll say Suns by 22 points.

And if we play this game like we did against Port, I'll say Adelaide by 47 points.

 

[Jirik13]

Crows are favourites and rightly so. They are very difficult to beat at home where they usually bring a great pressure. Crowd support makes a huge difference. They really destroyed Port last weekend.

Suns played one of their best games against Lions but it was at home. The week before they were very poor against GWS in Canberra in 2nd half.

Crows forward line is efficient and Tex is on fire. Collins struggled to contain him in the past. On the other hand, Crows defence is very inexperienced and if Suns get enough forward entries they could be in trouble.

The only chance Suns have if they win the midfield battle like they did in Darwin and convert opportunities.

I don't think neither of those teams will play finals (I suspect Lions will smack Crows at Gabba next week) but it should be hopefully a good battle.

Crows by 22.

 

[The Kings Ransom]

We had all our first choice tall defenders out last week too and still smacked 2nd ranked Port on their home ground.

I remember how confident your mob was against us last time in Darwin.

Completely different ball game at AO. Your defence will struggle to contain our forward line. Walker has gone up another notch or 5 since Darwin too.

Yes Guts,
I can see you are supremely confident.

I am also worried about your forward line. Hence me saying if we win the midfield we are a chance.
If we lose the midfield we’ve got no chance.

I’m sure the crowd at AO will get you more than a few advantages on game day too.

 

[PCORF]

Gotta keep the same intensity up after the showdown. A must win to keep our slim finals chances alive.

 

[GC2015]

And if we play this game like we did against Port, I'll say Adelaide by 47 points.

Not sure Port are as good as some think they are and in particular their form right now is less than convincing. Their last victory was against us at the Adelaide Oval four weeks ago and they only beat us by 33 points after all the turmoil we experienced in the week leading into that game after being on the receiving end of a Collingwood belting and our coach's future under massive scrutiny. Most would have expected Port to win that game against us by a greater margin and I would point to Port's percentage (109.8%) as a great indicator of their true form. Now some will say you can't deny the quality of a team that won 13 games in a row and that's a fair point, but also consider that seven of those matches were won by less than 15 points. It all started unravelling for them after they played us and the Crows were able to strike against an out of form and probably really fatigued Port Adelaide side. Wouldn't surprise me at all to see Geelong beat Port on Saturday and continue their current woes.

The same can't be said about the Suns win over the Lions. If you go backwards and look at their recent games they beat Geelong the week before we played them, lost to the Demons by a single point (which they should have won), smashed West Coast, smashed Richmond, beat St Kilda and beat Sydney. Brisbane were not a team out of form going into that QClash and they currently have the league's second best percentage (125.2%) which suggests they win often and when they do they usually win well. Plus, Brisbane were on a nine-game QClash winning streak going into that one and hadn't lost to the Suns at Carrara Stadium since 2016. Brisbane had so much going for them and got touched up, which feels like a more impressive win IMO.

We've already beaten the Crows this season so our boys know they can do it if they bring the same fight they displayed in the QClash. The only factor that has me questioning it is the influence of the ground/crowd because we know the Crows tend to play really well at the AO and often to get fired up in front of a large home crowd. In saying that, GWS proved three weeks ago that the Crows are beatable on their home ground so the blueprint is definitely there for a Suns victory. I'd also add that the Crows seem to pull smaller crowds in day matches (around the 32k range) as opposed to night matches that seem to pull 40k+ so that's probably going to be a factor as well. If there's only 30k people that show up on Saturday afternoon then that's slightly under half the stadium being empty and is not as daunting for our players as it could be in a night game.

 

[Zevon]

Crows deserved favourites but I won’t be surprised if the Suns make a real game of this. Certainly not a foregone conclusion.