Preview Brisbane Lions v Carlton Blues Round 18 Saturday 7.40pm - The Gabba

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fugitive

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I have been watching the team closely last few weeks and have noticed that the boys are now really willing to push the ball forward at all costs through fists, spoils and soccer to setup goals, really reminiscent of our late 2003-2004 game style and quite different to last year where we were over using the ball at time.
 

Nunez

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I have been watching the team closely last few weeks and have noticed that the boys are now really willing to push the ball forward at all costs through fists, spoils and soccer to setup goals, really reminiscent of our late 2003-2004 game style and quite different to last year where we were over using the ball at time.
Also think our physicality has gone up a notch since the bye. We're looking uncompromising.
 

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Sherrinator

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We really need to change our game plan now in time for finals > Any time we get the ball outside our defensive 50 we need The Big O to run around the back and receive the handball and torpedo it 80 meters out the back for Charlie, Hippy, Linc or Keidean to run onto and stroll into an open goal ergo no need to worry about goal kicking accuracy.
We definitely need some more Joe the Goose goals
 

Caiphus

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I just hate Carlton's song and will arrive at the ground after they've run on so I don't have to hear it then... and subsequently I will be bloody livid if I have to hear it at the end of the game!

Cripps is a worry if he can turn it on, we don't have a reliable answer for him if he decides to turn it on. Haven't watched many Carlton games this year and my general non-Lions footy engagement has been incredibly low so I don't know whether I've barely heard about him because of that or his form has been mediocre.

I'd like Hugh to kick 9 or 10 goals and Lyons to kick 4 or 5 just to make their accuracy a little more respectable this season. That would be a good outcome from this game.
 

dlanod

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While it is a funny thing to wish for, it something that I have noticed we pretty rarely get. Is it the way we setup? Or are teams just far more defensive when they play against us?
I think it's pretty simple to explain. We set up a very high zone press, between the forward 50 arc and midfield therefore when we get turnovers, the opposition in front of us are in a compressed space. We're more likely to generate a shot on goal from those turnovers but less likely to generate an open goal to run into.

By contrast, if we turn it over it's more likely to be deep in their defense with all our team to go through but if a team gets it past our zone there's a heap of open space for them to run into and it becomes a foot race which are more conducive to those kinds of goals.

A team that sets up deep will have less chances to get shots on goal from the turnover because they have to move the ball the entire field to get back to the forward 50, but they'll also give up less goals over the back because there is less "back" to get over.

The above assumes both teams are at less decent/putting in an effort, because the latter case can still concede open goals if the defending midfield isn't as responsive as the attacking midfield (though more often it'll lead to a mark and shot rather than an open goal if attacking midfielders aren't manned up).
 

Ralphy2017

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I do not envy our team selectors...

Part of me wants to see Rayner dropped for McCarthy so he knows he has to fight back in for finals.
Can understand your sentiment, but IF Cam was ever going to be dropped it would have been at stages last year. I thought he was good against the Suns, but very ordinary against Swans, so hopefully big game this week.
 

jackess

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I know we don't want to mess around with form and we won't rest any that don't need it but I wonder if we could make some slight positional changes eg. Rayner one out deep, Bailey in at more centre bounces, Charlie on the wing, etc.
 

Sanchez365

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I think it's pretty simple to explain. We set up a very high zone press, between the forward 50 arc and midfield therefore when we get turnovers, the opposition in front of us are in a compressed space. We're more likely to generate a shot on goal from those turnovers but less likely to generate an open goal to run into.

By contrast, if we turn it over it's more likely to be deep in their defense with all our team to go through but if a team gets it past our zone there's a heap of open space for them to run into and it becomes a foot race which are more conducive to those kinds of goals.

A team that sets up deep will have less chances to get shots on goal from the turnover because they have to move the ball the entire field to get back to the forward 50, but they'll also give up less goals over the back because there is less "back" to get over.

The above assumes both teams are at less decent/putting in an effort, because the latter case can still concede open goals if the defending midfield isn't as responsive as the attacking midfield (though more often it'll lead to a mark and shot rather than an open goal if attacking midfielders aren't manned up).
Great insight, being from Melbourne haven't gotten to any games so it can be hard to see our full field setup on TV. You have done a great job of explaining why we are susceptible to those out the back goals very well, and it was clear when we played the bulldogs they had a deliberate strategy to force the ball forward from the initial contest to just get out of our initial press.

For me though it's more the other way, why we don't get them, even when starting plays from our back half. But I guess because of the way we position, if it gets through our zone we don't get a turn over in the back half and it generates a shot on goal for the opposition.

Also explains why out of defence we look to move the ball slowly up the field, so we can get the ball into the pocket and setup our forward press.

Watching the Port game I was so surprised at how (from kick outs at least) almost exclusively go up the center of the ground and try to basically get a "joe the goose" goal. From your analysis I can see why we don't do the same.

(Sorry for the long post, just trying to get my head around team strategy a bit better)
 

jackess

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Great insight, being from Melbourne haven't gotten to any games so it can be hard to see our full field setup on TV. You have done a great job of explaining why we are susceptible to those out the back goals very well, and it was clear when we played the bulldogs they had a deliberate strategy to force the ball forward from the initial contest to just get out of our initial press.

For me though it's more the other way, why we don't get them, even when starting plays from our back half. But I guess because of the way we position, if it gets through our zone we don't get a turn over in the back half and it generates a shot on goal for the opposition.

Also explains why out of defence we look to move the ball slowly up the field, so we can get the ball into the pocket and setup our forward press.

Watching the Port game I was so surprised at how (from kick outs at least) almost exclusively go up the center of the ground and try to basically get a "joe the goose" goal. From your analysis I can see why we don't do the same.

(Sorry for the long post, just trying to get my head around team strategy a bit better)
I think we're still transitioning from doing all we can to not concede 20 goals a match like under Leppa to being a more damaging side with our ball movement.

We've seen that from last year to this year using the corridor more often.
 

Sanchez365

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I think we're still transitioning from doing all we can to not concede 20 goals a match like under Leppa to being a more damaging side with our ball movement.

We've seen that from last year to this year using the corridor more often.
Yeah it's easy to forget that really wasn't that long ago. Also makes me wonder if bringing in a player like Birchall was a hope of trying to have more options to go over the zone from outside 50 like Rich can. When we have such a crowded forward line because of where we generate our turnovers, having long range kicking half backs could really help. I'm not sure any of Ah Chee, Answerth, Starchevich or even Witherden really fill that role, keeping in mind all have other strengths they bring to the team.
 

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jackess

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Yeah it's easy to forget that really wasn't that long ago. Also makes me wonder if bringing in a player like Birchall was a hope of trying to have more options to go over the zone from outside 50 like Rich can. When we have such a crowded forward line because of where we generate our turnovers, having long range kicking half backs could really help. I'm not sure any of Ah Chee, Answerth, Starchevich or even Witherden really fill that role, keeping in mind all have other strengths they bring to the team.
When we recruited Birchall and Ah Chee Noble said Birchall was a fast decision maker and Ah Chee was a fast runner. Their recruiting was a definite sign we wanted to play more attacking off half back
 

Jason mp

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I know we don't want to mess around with form and we won't rest any that don't need it but I wonder if we could make some slight positional changes eg. Rayner one out deep, Bailey in at more centre bounces, Charlie on the wing, etc.
I like the idea of Charlie playing a bit more time on the wing, he is an elite deliverer of the footy inside 50.
 

Quigley

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I like the idea of Charlie playing a bit more time on the wing, he is an elite deliverer of the footy inside 50.
I like Charlie up forward. Coleman is one I would like more up on the wing delivering it in to the forwards. Charlie would really appreciate being on the end of more of Coleman's kicks.
 

jackess

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I like the idea of Charlie playing a bit more time on the wing, he is an elite deliverer of the footy inside 50.
He's often a bit slow when he marks it on the wing. I'd prefer to use his pace and start to get some running bounces. Link up with Bailey and Rayner and go for a run
 

Mighty Lions

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When we recruited Birchall and Ah Chee Noble said Birchall was a fast decision maker and Ah Chee was a fast runner. Their recruiting was a definite sign we wanted to play more attacking off half back
And yet one of the criticism's Witho got post 2019 season was that he was too attacking and they wanted him to become a little more defensive.
 

SL16

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What are we thinking the changes are going to be this week?

CEY came in and was one of our best, so wouldn't think he'll be dropped.
Birchall came in for Starc and did his usual role.
Hinge was in for McCarthy, which meant we swung the magnets around a bit. I thought Hinge did really well and would also be stiff to be dropped.

Even if Bez is ready I suspect he'll only play a scratch match, no need to rush him in.
Starc and Linc are the interesting ones, you would think if they're ready they come in, but who for?

My thinking is they won't want to rest anyone (sept maybe Robbo who looks buggered), as they'll have next week off anyways.

Maybe Starce in for Answerth? Linc in for Ah Chee?
 

Dlions

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And yet one of the criticism's Witho got post 2019 season was that he was too attacking and they wanted him to become a little more defensive.
Maybe rather than saying - play more attacking off half back.
You could replace that with - playing with more speed off half back.
Witho can throw in an attacking kick every now and then, but playing with speed doesn’t appear to be a strong suit? Speed of his decision making and speed by foot are probably his biggest downfall IMO. Defensively I actually think he is much better now than he was to begin with.
 

SL16

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He didn’t come into consideration for (my bests) for the game. I fact far from it.
Fair enough, everyone sees it differently.

I thought he was one of our better players for sure, and it seems the match report agrees:

BEST
Brisbane:
Lyons, Rich, McStay, Ellis-Yolmen, McInerney, Robinson
 
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