Analysis Death-Riding Melbourne 2018 (now with poll)

[Shaz2012]

Probably comes down to the Showdown.

I reckon we’ve got the next showdown. Not sure if we have got enough from the other games, but showdown I am confident about.

Richmond, Giants away - tough would be an understatement

Who the * knows how we will play against Geelong, North and Melbourne. We play some of our worst footy against these sides, but we need to win all three.

 

[Scorpus]

Will need 13 wins to make the 8 this year. I think it's pointless for us unless we make top 4, but we'll try anyway. We could ep having an enjoyable second half of the season where we win most our games but still end up with a good-ish pick

I said a few weeks ago that I think we'll go balls out and ultimately finish 9th.

Which would be very disappointing

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

I said a few weeks ago that I think we'll go balls out and ultimately finish 9th.

Which would be very disappointing

We'll finish 10th, but it will be ok because melbourne will finish 11th and we still have pick 8.

 

[Tex Danger]

12 wins enough last year, and 12 with a modest % of 105 enough in 2016.

We can most likely afford 3 more losses, 2 to be sure.

Cant win next week. Unlikely v Giants.

Probably comes down to the Showdown.

I just did ladder predictor.

Had us losing to Richmond and GWS only.

Ended with us on 13 wins and 9th. % behind Geelong, half game being GWS. But above Melbourne and North.

Obviously theres plenty that can go wrong with that prediction but without upsets to those teams around us 13 may not even be enough thanks to poor percentage

 

[Betts are off]

I said a few weeks ago that I think we'll go balls out and ultimately finish 9th.

Which would be very disappointing

Well we had very favorable results this week. And some sides have well and truly started mid season slump.

Melbourne 3 losses
West Coast 3 losses (Next game GWS on a 4 game winning streak)
Geelong 2 losses (Next Game Sydney)
North 1-2 in last 3 weeks

I'm still only cautiously optimistic at best about our chances, but this is the time when the season becomes a grind. And the fast starting teams often feel the pinch. I wouldn't at all be surprised to see a bunch more upset wins from teams in the bottom 10 over the next month. And too me that will be equally important to us playing finals as our form!

 

[Betts are off]

I just did ladder predictor.

Had us losing to Richmond and GWS only.

Ended with us on 13 wins and 9th. % behind Geelong, half game being GWS. But above Melbourne and North.

Obviously theres plenty that can go wrong with that prediction but without upsets to those teams around us 13 may not even be enough thanks to poor percentage

I like the above Melbourne part!

 

[Tex Danger]

I like the above Melbourne part!

We need to beat melbourne for that to happen and then not beat the sides above them. Just us losing to them flips that

 

[Jarman3]

I just did ladder predictor.

Had us losing to Richmond and GWS only.

Ended with us on 13 wins and 9th. % behind Geelong, half game being GWS. But above Melbourne and North.

Obviously theres plenty that can go wrong with that prediction but without upsets to those teams around us 13 may not even be enough thanks to poor percentage

Geeez, you'd be pretty stiff to win 13 games and still not make the 8, wouldn't you? Like winning 16 games and not finishing top 4. Which we've also done recently.

 

[Betts are off]

We need to beat melbourne for that to happen and then not beat the sides above them. Just us losing to them flips that

Melbourne Draw is not that easy after next week. They have a few lay up's sure. But the St Kilda game showed us that if you can wrestle the ascendancy in the midfield away from them for long enough, then they're back 6 is a liability. I said it last week, they shouldn't miss finals from where they are and what the AFL gifted them. But this is Melbourne, they've made missing the finals into an artform!

I wouldn't put a second half of the season capitulation out of the realms of possibility. I mean, they are already 3 game's into it, and the hard part of the schedule hasn't even started yet!

 

[Jarman3]

Melbourne Draw is not that easy after next week. They have a few lay up's sure. But the St Kilda game showed us that if you can wrestle the ascendancy in the midfield away from them for long enough, then they're back 6 is a liability. I said it last week, they shouldn't miss finals from where they are and what the AFL gifted them. But this is Melbourne, they've made missing the finals into an artform!

I wouldn't put a second half of the season capitulation out of the realms of possibility. I mean, they are already 3 game's into it, and the hard part of the schedule hasn't even started yet!

Imagine if they miss out in round 23 again like last year. It'll be angry mobs with pitchforks and flaming torches down there.

 

[Betts are off]

Imagine if they miss out in round 23 again like last year. It'll be angry mobs with pitchforks and flaming torches down there.

I'm pretty sure the AFL would be like; "Come up guys, what else could we do for you? Do you want to play the Gold Coast 22 times next year or something?'

 

[Jarman3]

I'm pretty sure the AFL would be like; "Come up guys, what else could we do for you? Do you want to play the Gold Coast 22 times next year or something?'

Think I'll go put my money on Gold Coast scraping into the 8 for the first time next year then. 3 point win over Melbourne in round 23 to push Melbourne down into 9th

 

[Betts are off]

Think I'll go put my money on Gold Coast scraping into the 8 for the first time next year then. 3 point win over Melbourne in round 23 to push Melbourne down into 9th

Well thats one way to fix the crisis on the Gold Coast I suppose.

 

[subaru]

Dear crows,

Your welcome.

Just back it up this week


Thx

 

[Jarman3]

I think Dogs and Saints are wildcards. They are capable of some good footy, if they both find some form they could scuttle plans of more favoured sides.

I think we're in that same category of "won't make finals but can make life difficult for some other teams that might". Even if we do lift our game from here, we've put ourselves too far behind the 8 ball by losing the last 4. No margin for error for the rest of the season, and we have a habit of making errors

 

[Geoffa32]

If we make the eight I want it to be us 8th with Port 5th.

Of course this is after we belt them in the next Showdown.

Would be a nice symmetry given we lost to WCE last year to set up them beating Port in that Final.

Sent from my SM-G930F using Tapatalk

 

[Shaz2012]

I just did ladder predictor.

Had us losing to Richmond and GWS only.

Ended with us on 13 wins and 9th. % behind Geelong, half game being GWS. But above Melbourne and North.

Obviously theres plenty that can go wrong with that prediction but without upsets to those teams around us 13 may not even be enough thanks to poor percentage

We might have to win that GWS game and jump them to make finals. Their draw cancels out our low %, so the equation is the same for GWS, North, Melbourne and Geelong. These are probably 4 of the 6 must win games. These teams do play each other. We may even be afforded a slip up against Port, Brisbane or Carlton and finish on 13 wins and make the top 8. But only if we can beat the 4 that we are competing with. Hawks also look like they could drop 3 games.

 

[pjcrows]

When it all ends, 13 wins will almost certainly get a team in the eight. 13 wins has never not snagged a spot.

That's 6W 2L from our last 8 games. If you're confident of that after playing only two good quarters in the last 5 weeks then I want some of what you're smoking.

 

[1990crow]

When it all ends, 13 wins will almost certainly get a team in the eight. 13 wins has never not snagged a spot.

That's 6W 2L from our last 8 games. If you're confident of that after playing only two good quarters in the last 5 weeks then I want some of what you're smoking.

It will come down to what impact a semi fit Tex, Sloane, fit M.Crouch, McGovern, smith, improved Sauce?, Hampton, Lynch etc. can have on our side. Having all those guys back in form and things can turn quickly.

BUT it will be too late if we win our last two as I wouldnt be backing us to win 6 on the trot.
Melbourne, Cats, Brisbane, Carlton and North should be very winnable games if the team lifts. Win those and it comes down to Richmond, Showdown and GwS games with each being pretty tough on paper no matter how much we improve. Showdown probably looks the most winnable.

 

[Crow till I die]

When it all ends, 13 wins will almost certainly get a team in the eight. 13 wins has never not snagged a spot.

That's 6W 2L from our last 8 games. If you're confident of that after playing only two good quarters in the last 5 weeks then I want some of what you're smoking.

you are only as good as your last game..particularly your last 1/4?

 

[El Doederino]

Heave Ho

 

[conVINCEd]

Melbourne kissed on the dick again - Fyfe missed them last week with a hammy and now Bont has had his appendix out ahead of Dogs/Demons this weekend.

 

[Scorpus]

Melbourne kissed on the dick again - Fyfe missed them last week with a hammy and now Bont has had his appendix out ahead of Dogs/Demons this weekend.

The Dogs are s**t, would have made next to no difference

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

The Dogs are s**t, would have made next to no difference

Yes, it’s better that they get a lucky run against s**t teams when they will win anyway, than against stronger teams.

 

[cmndstab]

Yes, it’s better that they get a lucky run against s**t teams when they will win anyway, than against stronger teams.

That only works if they ever actually play a strong team, though.