And Freo maybe - they have a tough run though. Wishful thinking.
Analysis Death-Riding Melbourne 2018 (now with poll)
- Thread starter mattymac
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And Freo maybe - they have a tough run though. Wishful thinking.
- Sep 28, 2016
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Yep, plus no Viney for an unknown amount of time, and considering its a reoccurring injury i doubt they'll rush him back. So a second 3 game losing streak could definately break them!
If we had 2 x 3 game losing streaks in 8 weeks i'd consider us broken! Hell 1 x 4 game losing streak saw 80% of this board wanting to tank the season!
You know what position we are on the ladder right?
- Sep 28, 2016
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1 game out of the 8 last time I checked!
Golumless
A bigger deal out west.
2 games out of the 8, seeing our percentage is too far to be made up (+20%).
It's still nothing more than mathematically possible that we do make finals.
- Sep 28, 2016
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- 19,316
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
If trying to tip the winners in the last month has taught me anything, its that there will be many more upsets between now and the final game of the regular season! I think to date there are a few teams that have performed well above their talent level, and a few that have performed well below. And a lot of those teams that have outperformed their predicted ladder position are now starting to feel the pinch of a 23 round season. So it will make for quite a fun last few months before finals!
The good news for us is the equation is pretty simple now. They just have to win!
Mathematical possibility is when you need other results to go your way, we are completely in control of our destiny, just like at the beginning of the season, if you win enough games you make the finals.
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- Sep 28, 2016
- 9,820
- 19,316
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
Considering the draft implication its actually fascinating to look at the path to finals or lack-thereof for both the Demons and the Crows.
MFC is sitting in 6th (10 wins) to the Crows 11th (8 wins), and a massive 31.5 %. Based on the old 'win 13 games to make finals' saying, who do we feel is most likely to achieve that Win total?
The Run Home:
Melb: Geel Away, Crows Away, GC Home, Syd Home, WCE Away, GWS Away
Crows: Bris Away, Melb Home, Port Home, GWS in Canberra, North home, Carton Away
Come on Melbourne, give me that sweet sweet late season choke that we all know you are capable of. Just 1 more for old times sake!
MFC is sitting in 6th (10 wins) to the Crows 11th (8 wins), and a massive 31.5 %. Based on the old 'win 13 games to make finals' saying, who do we feel is most likely to achieve that Win total?
The Run Home:
Melb: Geel Away, Crows Away, GC Home, Syd Home, WCE Away, GWS Away
Crows: Bris Away, Melb Home, Port Home, GWS in Canberra, North home, Carton Away
Come on Melbourne, give me that sweet sweet late season choke that we all know you are capable of. Just 1 more for old times sake!
Shaz2012
Cancelled
- Sep 15, 2012
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You just know that Gawn is going to drag them to 13 wins off his own back. Viney a big loss though. They are such a better team with him playing.
Hopefully Geelong can rebound and beat Melbourne this week. Then would love it if smash them at Adelaide Oval. May have a chance with Talia, Tex, Mcgovern, Dougy in by then. Assuming we beat Brisbane, both us and Melbourne would be on 10wins then. Would be a struggle for them to make the 8 then with GC Home, Syd Home, WCE Away, GWS Away.
- Aug 7, 2015
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Also need to look at who might displace Melb (cur.40pts):
GWS (38): Port(A), Saints(H), Carl(A), Crows(H), Syd(H), Melb(H)
Geel (36): Melb(H), Bris(H), Rich(A), Haw(A), Freo(H), GC(H)
North(36): Coll(A), WCE(H), Bris(A), WB(H), Crows(A), Saints(A)
Haw (36): Carl(A), Freo(A), Ess(H), Geel(H), Saints(A), Syd(A)
Rough guess of wins are:
Melb: 2 (maybe 4)
GWS: 2 (maybe 5)
Geel: 2 (maybe 4)
North: 2 (maybe 3)
Haw: 3 (maybe 5)
I think the maybe wins will push Dees to 8 if not out of it.
Roovolution
Norm Smith Medallist
- Nov 22, 2016
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Melbourne will lose to the good teams and beat up on the bad. They aren’t doing anything this year.
Viney out for a month
- Oct 16, 2015
- 24,279
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...
My tip is Melbourne to lose to Geelong, Adelaide, WC and GWS. 50/50 game against Sydney. Thats 12 wins at best and out of the 8.
Don’t cancel that snow lodge at Mt. Hotham just yet, Dees fans.
Don’t cancel that snow lodge at Mt. Hotham just yet, Dees fans.
Kane McGoodwin
Make me an Admin!
- May 21, 2001
- 81,432
- 81,977
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
- Other Teams
- Adelaide Crows
Yes, I think they are a good chance to drop out.
Ideally if we make the finals, Dees drop out to ensure we have a pick ahead of Port.
I can Melbourne and Port missing
Kane McGoodwin
Make me an Admin!
- May 21, 2001
- 81,432
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- Adelaide
- Other Teams
- Adelaide Crows
Particularly now with Viney & Ryder out as they come up against decent opponents.
Linekers Ears
All Australian
Worst part about being a Demons fan - the snow in the Australian Alps is generally s**t in September. Have to fly off to New Zealand
Michael hibberd quad strain. Probably a good 3 week injury from experience.
Viney out for 4, Lever the season.
Wheels are falling off for the dees quite nicely.. top 10 pick still on the cards even if we play finals which would be vital to trading up for Rankine.
Viney out for 4, Lever the season.
Wheels are falling off for the dees quite nicely.. top 10 pick still on the cards even if we play finals which would be vital to trading up for Rankine.
- Banned
- #2,071
Would it be possible to trade up for BOTH Luko AND Rankine? Or is that too much to ask?
Shaz2012
Cancelled
- Sep 15, 2012
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He is a bigger loss than Lever. That is huge.
- Jul 6, 2017
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Hopefully by the time they play us, Gawn and a few more others will be missing with niggles
Shaz2012
Cancelled
- Sep 15, 2012
- 7,928
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- Adelaide
Gawn is the biggest one. He is capable of dragging them to finals. They still have a lot of quality like Oliver and Brayshaw. But Gawn is the big one.
It’s mathematical, but it’s a pretty easy equation. We need to win 5 of our last 6 games to make the 8. 13 wins gets us there, 12 probably doesn’t.
If we can win 5 of our last 6, were probably playing pretty decent footy and would have other finalists a little shaky.
Having said that, apart from Carlton, none of our remaining games are necessarily easy, even Brisbane at the Gabba. If we play well, we could make those 5 wins easily, but if we can’t maintain form and let’s face it, we’ve played 2 good games in the past 2-3 months, we could very easily only win 1 more game for the season. Well know more Saturday.
Yeah good post, for once it’s probably going to be a really interesting last 6 weeks of footy. Top 5 are probably set in the top 8, but from 6-12, a lot could change depending on which clubs find form and which ones flop. I’ve no doubt there’ll be a few upsets to make things really interesting.
