eth-dog
Tier 1 WW Player
Observations
Essendon: Had an excellent game against GWS, streaking away to a 35 point win, Mark Baguley starring as a forward, kicking 3 goals whilst David Zaharakis had 33 touches and a goal running through the midfield. Tom Bellchambers may have only had 3 touches but had 45 hit outs and 18 to advantage.
Richmond: Had Jack Riewoldt and Bachar Houli go down early but recovered to defeat a hapless St. Kilda by 28 points, captain Trent Cotchin having 32 disposals and kicking whilst Josh Caddy was dominant up forward with 6 goals among his 24 disposals.
Head to Head (last 5)
Essendon 0-5 Richmond
Form Guide
Essendon: 2W 3L
Richmond: 4W 1L
Sportsbet odds
Essendon: $3.60
Richmond: $1.30
Line: 22.5 ($1.92)
Possible sides
Essendon vs Richmond
B: Ridley - Hooker - Dea
F:Moore - Riewoldt - Butler
HB: McKenna - Hurley - Saad
HF: Martin - Caddy - Higgins
C: Zaharakis - Langford - Z Merrett
C: Grigg - Cotchin - McIntosh
HF: Baguley - Stewart - McDonald-Tipungwuti
HB: Short - Grimes - Vlaustin
F: Fantasia - McKernan - Stringer
B: Broad - Astbury - Rance
R: Bellchambers - D Smith - Heppell
R: Nankervis - Lambert - Graham
I: Goddard - McGrath - Guelfi - Laverde
I: Ellis - Conca - Menadue - Edwards
Essendon in: Hurley; Out: Ambrose (calf)
Richmond in: Grimes; Out: Houli (groin)
Richmond defence vs Essendon forward line
Essendon's forward line has been around the average for forward efficiency so far this season, rating of 24%, but the big issue is that they have the 3rd lowest inside 50 rate of any team. Richmond are keeping sides well, conceding a goal around the 24% mark but are very good at strangling teams. Essendon may have a look at going a smaller than usual forward line with one genuine tall in Stewart and then two taller mediums in Laverde and Stringer, maybe trying to go similar to what Richmond are doing with manic pressure from the likes of Fantasia, McDonald-Tipungwuti and (surprisingly re-inventing himself as a forward) Baguley. Richmond do cut off attacks very well with the likes of Grimes and Rance, with Astbury usually taking the main tall, in this case Stewart.
Midfield/rucks battle
Essendon have improved recently in the middle of the ground thanks to the addition of Kyle Langford, along with skipper Dyson Heppell returning to form, climbing from 16th early in the season to 11th in clearance differential, and from 15th to 10th in Contested Possession differential, whereas Richmond are struggling in this area, being 16th and 15th in these areas respectively. Essendon's pressure around the ball, provided by the aforementioned Langford and Heppell as well as Devon Smith having high tackle numbers of recent weeks. Captain Trent Cotchin, superstar Dustin Martin and the rising Jack Graham will be hoping to combat this trio of Essendon players, as on the outside they have the likes of Nick Vlaustin, Connor Menadue and Shaun Grigg to provide a point of difference to the Dons. Rucks wise, a lot will depend on whether or not Tom Bellchambers gets up after a calf injury against GWS, if not they'll be going with Leuenberger or McKernan against the very strong Nankervis.
Richmond forward line vs Essendon defence
Essendon's defence has been under a lot of pressure this season, and has been a little poorer than last season, conceding a goal 23% of the time it enters defensive 50. Richmond are going okay in terms of efficiency, around the 24% mark for forward efficiency. Richmond may miss the very durable Jack Riewoldt, who has only missed 3 games from the start of the 2010 season, which would make Callum Moore the main avenue inside 50. The smalls of Edwards, Higgins and Butler will be Essendon's worries though, as well as Josh Caddy. Hooker and Hurley will be trying to intercept mark for the most part, something most sides fail to achieve against Richmond. Adam Saad and Conor McKenna will have a tougher time than they usually do running it out of defence.
X-Factor Player
Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti defines X-Factor. He's quick, strong for his size and has beautiful skills. Dreamtime at the G is the perfect time to strut his stuff and show why he can win it for the Dons.
Key stat
Essendon: Clearances. If Essendon can beat Richmond around the stoppage and get it forward quickly, it's a big advantage.
Richmond: Tackles Inside 50's. This is the key stat for the Tiges every week. If they get it right there aren't many sides who can beat them.
Tip
Head over heart, Tigers by 17
Essendon: Had an excellent game against GWS, streaking away to a 35 point win, Mark Baguley starring as a forward, kicking 3 goals whilst David Zaharakis had 33 touches and a goal running through the midfield. Tom Bellchambers may have only had 3 touches but had 45 hit outs and 18 to advantage.
Richmond: Had Jack Riewoldt and Bachar Houli go down early but recovered to defeat a hapless St. Kilda by 28 points, captain Trent Cotchin having 32 disposals and kicking whilst Josh Caddy was dominant up forward with 6 goals among his 24 disposals.
Head to Head (last 5)
Essendon 0-5 Richmond
Form Guide
Essendon: 2W 3L
Richmond: 4W 1L
Sportsbet odds
Essendon: $3.60
Richmond: $1.30
Line: 22.5 ($1.92)
Possible sides
Essendon vs Richmond
B: Ridley - Hooker - Dea
F:Moore - Riewoldt - Butler
HB: McKenna - Hurley - Saad
HF: Martin - Caddy - Higgins
C: Zaharakis - Langford - Z Merrett
C: Grigg - Cotchin - McIntosh
HF: Baguley - Stewart - McDonald-Tipungwuti
HB: Short - Grimes - Vlaustin
F: Fantasia - McKernan - Stringer
B: Broad - Astbury - Rance
R: Bellchambers - D Smith - Heppell
R: Nankervis - Lambert - Graham
I: Goddard - McGrath - Guelfi - Laverde
I: Ellis - Conca - Menadue - Edwards
Essendon in: Hurley; Out: Ambrose (calf)
Richmond in: Grimes; Out: Houli (groin)
Richmond defence vs Essendon forward line
Essendon's forward line has been around the average for forward efficiency so far this season, rating of 24%, but the big issue is that they have the 3rd lowest inside 50 rate of any team. Richmond are keeping sides well, conceding a goal around the 24% mark but are very good at strangling teams. Essendon may have a look at going a smaller than usual forward line with one genuine tall in Stewart and then two taller mediums in Laverde and Stringer, maybe trying to go similar to what Richmond are doing with manic pressure from the likes of Fantasia, McDonald-Tipungwuti and (surprisingly re-inventing himself as a forward) Baguley. Richmond do cut off attacks very well with the likes of Grimes and Rance, with Astbury usually taking the main tall, in this case Stewart.
Midfield/rucks battle
Essendon have improved recently in the middle of the ground thanks to the addition of Kyle Langford, along with skipper Dyson Heppell returning to form, climbing from 16th early in the season to 11th in clearance differential, and from 15th to 10th in Contested Possession differential, whereas Richmond are struggling in this area, being 16th and 15th in these areas respectively. Essendon's pressure around the ball, provided by the aforementioned Langford and Heppell as well as Devon Smith having high tackle numbers of recent weeks. Captain Trent Cotchin, superstar Dustin Martin and the rising Jack Graham will be hoping to combat this trio of Essendon players, as on the outside they have the likes of Nick Vlaustin, Connor Menadue and Shaun Grigg to provide a point of difference to the Dons. Rucks wise, a lot will depend on whether or not Tom Bellchambers gets up after a calf injury against GWS, if not they'll be going with Leuenberger or McKernan against the very strong Nankervis.
Richmond forward line vs Essendon defence
Essendon's defence has been under a lot of pressure this season, and has been a little poorer than last season, conceding a goal 23% of the time it enters defensive 50. Richmond are going okay in terms of efficiency, around the 24% mark for forward efficiency. Richmond may miss the very durable Jack Riewoldt, who has only missed 3 games from the start of the 2010 season, which would make Callum Moore the main avenue inside 50. The smalls of Edwards, Higgins and Butler will be Essendon's worries though, as well as Josh Caddy. Hooker and Hurley will be trying to intercept mark for the most part, something most sides fail to achieve against Richmond. Adam Saad and Conor McKenna will have a tougher time than they usually do running it out of defence.
X-Factor Player
Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti defines X-Factor. He's quick, strong for his size and has beautiful skills. Dreamtime at the G is the perfect time to strut his stuff and show why he can win it for the Dons.
Key stat
Essendon: Clearances. If Essendon can beat Richmond around the stoppage and get it forward quickly, it's a big advantage.
Richmond: Tackles Inside 50's. This is the key stat for the Tiges every week. If they get it right there aren't many sides who can beat them.
Tip
Head over heart, Tigers by 17
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