Racing Melbourne Cup 2020. * All race day discussion and Tips in here *(no aftertiming)

[balmainforever]

ANY AFTERTIMING WILL GET A CARD.

ANYONE BAGGING WHAT HAPPENED TO AVD GETS A CARD.

 

[iluvparis]

Updated OOE after 1st acceptances - might be a nervous wait for the likes of Nickajack Cave and Master of Wine

https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2020-rv/the-sport/files/2020-09-29-melbourne-cup-elimination-oder-as-as-sept-29-2020.pdf?la=en

 

[plays tall 1]

Updated OOE after 1st acceptances - might be a nervous wait for the likes of Nickajack Cave and Master of Wine

https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2020-rv/the-sport/files/2020-09-29-melbourne-cup-elimination-oder-as-as-sept-29-2020.pdf?la=en

They can move within the 6.0kg off benchmark weight bracket (i.e. as high as 26) just by winning prizemoney without a re-handicap. MOW will have a couple of chances at that. I think they’ll be ok. Still some attrition to come.

 

[iluvparis]

They can move within the 6.0kg off benchmark weight bracket (i.e. as high as 26) just by winning prizemoney without a re-handicap. MOW will have a couple of chances at that. I think they’ll be ok. Still some attrition to come.

NC won't - they plan to go straight to the Cup.

 

[half_back_flank]

Surprise Baby puts in the best grand final trial run since Gust of Wind’s Adrian Knox run back in 2015. Next outing who should have been the 2016 MC winner (if Frankie missed his flight) trounced Winx in the Oaks. Half decent barrier draw and he’s clearly on top.

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Surprise Baby puts in the best grand final trial run since Gust of Wind’s Adrian Knox run back in 2015. Next outing who should have been the 2016 MC winner (if Frankie missed his flight) trounced Winx in the Oaks. Half decent barrier draw and he’s clearly on top.

It was an ok run nothing too amazing
Should figure top 6 minimum
But hardly a good thing

 

[Viva la Mattner]

I currently have my rankings

1- Tiger Moth
2- Russian Camelot
3- Santiago
4- Surprise Baby
5- Finche
6- Le Don de Vie

 

[iluvparis]

Surprise Baby puts in the best grand final trial run since Gust of Wind’s Adrian Knox run back in 2015. Next outing who should have been the 2016 MC winner (if Frankie missed his flight) trounced Winx in the Oaks. Half decent barrier draw and he’s clearly on top.

This may be the worst collection of hot takes in the history of the punting board

 

[iluvparis]

I currently have my rankings

1- Tiger Moth
2- Russian Camelot
3- Santiago
4- Surprise Baby
5- Finche
6- Le Don de Vie

Le Don won’t make the field. Only chance was at Caulfield anyway (where it also won’t make the field)

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Le Don won’t make the field. Only chance was at Caulfield anyway (where it also won’t make the field)

If that’s the case have POA there
Another solid run no doubt from him coming plus love the J.Kah booking

 

[half_back_flank]

This may be the worst collection of hot takes in the history of the punting board

Thought you’d enjoy that.


I do think RC is absolute poison though. It’s a huge ask to back up after any horse in the Cup after a Cox Plate prep, let alone a NH 3 year old in his first full prep. Besides So You Think as a dual Cox plate winner and Hartnell cuddled on the fence, when was the last horse to run into the placings off a Cox Plate prep? I’ll stick my neck out and say he won’t even make it to Tuesday.

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Thought you’d enjoy that.


I do think RC is absolute poison though. It’s a huge ask to back up after any horse in the Cup after a Cox Plate prep, let alone a NH 3 year old in his first full prep. Besides So You Think as a dual Cox plate winner and Hartnell cuddled on the fence, when was the last horse to run into the placings off a Cox Plate prep? I’ll stick my neck out and say he won’t even make it to Tuesday.

That’s worth a prop bet Paris
Russian will be there

 

[king rising]

Pretty keen to be with Santiago. Bit of cut out of the track will suit, and despite being initially perturbed by John Allen as a booking, I actually reckon he isn’t a bad rider of stayers

 

[iluvparis]

Thought you’d enjoy that.


I do think RC is absolute poison though. It’s a huge ask to back up after any horse in the Cup after a Cox Plate prep, let alone a NH 3 year old in his first full prep. Besides So You Think as a dual Cox plate winner and Hartnell cuddled on the fence, when was the last horse to run into the placings off a Cox Plate prep? I’ll stick my neck out and say he won’t even make it to Tuesday.

Fiorente won out of the Cox Plate

 

[iluvparis]

That’s worth a prop bet Paris
Russian will be there

Nah - could get randomly get injured or run terrible in one of the next two and not make it. I'd rather take a prop bet on him going well if he lines up.

 

[iluvparis]

Pretty keen to be with Santiago. Bit of cut out of the track will suit, and despite being initially perturbed by John Allen as a booking, I actually reckon he isn’t a bad rider of stayers

Now I've heard it all - predicting the weather a month out from the race!

 

[half_back_flank]

Fiorente won out of the Cox Plate

You’ve misunderstood the question, Fiorente wasn’t on a Cox Plate prep that year, his grand final was always the Cup. So when was the last horse to run into a placing Or winning after backing up after targeting the Cox Plate as their GF?

There have been two I can think of. SYT was a genuine superstar at the peak of his powers and couldn’t do it. Hartnell was nursed to a placing by a peach of a ride by McDonald after the prep of his life.

 

[Jugada]

Horses don't win Melbourne Cups as after thoughts and tack on races to a prep. Doesn't happen

 

[54Dogs]

You’ve misunderstood the question, Fiorente wasn’t on a Cox Plate prep that year, his grand final was always the Cup. So when was the last horse to run into a placing Or winning after backing up after targeting the Cox Plate as their GF?

There have been two I can think of. SYT was a genuine superstar at the peak of his powers and couldn’t do it. Hartnell was nursed to a placing by a peach of a ride by McDonald after the prep of his life.

There's an argument though that they have essentially had 2 goals in mind for RC. CP has always been a target, but the MC has been a big part of their thinking and prep

 

[Jugada]

There's an argument though that they have essentially had 2 goals in mind for RC. CP has always been a target, but the MC has been a big part of their thinking and prep

Can't set a horse for a 2000m race and then re peak for a 2 mile race like 9 days later. Its one or the other and trainer has always said the Cox Plate is the target this prep

 

[FallingLiefs]

Can't set a horse for a 2000m race and then re peak for a 2 mile race like 9 days later. Its one or the other and trainer has always said the Cox Plate is the target this prep

There is spiking and there is peaking, good horses can peak and build a solid group of performances end on end, consistently outputting a similar run. There is then spiking where you get an exceptional unsustainable performance, You can't just rule out the fact he won't hold or improve 9 days later before the first race is even run. Hartnell, Criterion and any Lexus/cup double winners are horses that come to mind when being able to sustain high quality performances after their GF.

Class overrides all form. (I don't know how good he is yet)

 

[iluvparis]

Can't set a horse for a 2000m race and then re peak for a 2 mile race like 9 days later. Its one or the other and trainer has always said the Cox Plate is the target this prep

Unless you are an absolute world champion like Fiorente right?

 

[iluvparis]

You’ve misunderstood the question, Fiorente wasn’t on a Cox Plate prep that year, his grand final was always the Cup. So when was the last horse to run into a placing Or winning after backing up after targeting the Cox Plate as their GF?

There have been two I can think of. SYT was a genuine superstar at the peak of his powers and couldn’t do it. Hartnell was nursed to a placing by a peach of a ride by McDonald after the prep of his life.

So Fiorente was capable of running second in our best WFA race when not even being set for it. Given that I reckon the old Ruski can run ok in the Melbourne Cup without being set for it.

And on the odd chance he is actually being set for - WWWWWWWWWWWOOOOOOOOOOWWWWWWW!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Jugada]

Unless you are an absolute world champion like Fiorente right?

You think Fiorente was being aimed at the Cox Plate that prep?

 

[half_back_flank]

So Fiorente was capable of running second in our best WFA race when not even being set for it. Given that I reckon the old Ruski can run ok in the Melbourne Cup without being set for it.

And on the odd chance he is actually being set for - WWWWWWWWWWWOOOOOOOOOOWWWWWWW!!!!!!!!!!!

*3rd.

And beaten by a maiden. Really strong year.

Incredible that you pick Fiorente too, because as soon as he landed in 2012 he was being set for the 2013 Cup. Had a ticket for 2012 so why not have a crack, but 2013 was the year they bought him for.

You’ve gone absolutely loopy.

 

[Jugada]

There is spiking and there is peaking, good horses can peak and build a solid group of performances end on end, consistently outputting a similar run. There is then spiking where you get an exceptional unsustainable performance, You can't just rule out the fact he won't hold or improve 9 days later before the first race is even run. Hartnell, Criterion and any Lexus/cup double winners are horses that come to mind when being able to sustain high quality performances after their GF.

Class overrides all form. (I don't know how good he is yet)

Can't be trained for a 2000m race then expect to be able to perform at your best for a 2 mile race around the corner.

When is a Lexus ever a horses GF? They are horses being trained for the Cup that need an early throw at the stumps to get in