Racing Melbourne Cup 2020. * All race day discussion and Tips in here *(no aftertiming)

[balmainforever]

ANY AFTERTIMING WILL GET A CARD.

ANYONE BAGGING WHAT HAPPENED TO AVD GETS A CARD.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Can't be trained for a 2000m race then expect to be able to perform at your best for a 2 mile race around the corner.

When is a Lexus ever a horses GF? They are horses being trained for the Cup that need an early throw at the stumps to get in

Point 1 - Trained for 2000m. If he's a 3200m horse he will run 3200m no problems I really hate this argument because it comes down to philosophies and the horse itself, impossible to prove. I have no problems backing them on sharp distance increases like he just did 1600-2500 off a month or something 3 starts ago and brought the exact same form. Some people do, I rarely see a problem if they are naturals at the dist.

Point 2 - I'd suspect nearly all horses are given the lexus as GF as no point dieing wondering. Oceanographer was one that actually turned the Lexus into a GF and could not back up in what was absurd spike it can genuinely go either way like any horse can in the cup.

 

[Jugada]

Horses are trained to perform over certain distances. Same argument that was being used for why Winx couldn't be trained to perform in both an Everest and a Cox Plate

Lexus horses are pretty much all trained through their prep as Cup horses. Don't love having to squeeze and extra run in that late either but it's a different problem

 

[iluvparis]

You think Fiorente was being aimed at the Cox Plate that prep?

did you not read my post? If a horse like fiorente can run top 2 in a cox plate not trying then RC can win a Melbourne cup not trying

 

[iluvparis]

*3rd.

And beaten by a maiden. Really strong year.

Incredible that you pick Fiorente too, because as soon as he landed in 2012 he was being set for the 2013 Cup. Had a ticket for 2012 so why not have a crack, but 2013 was the year they bought him for.

You’ve gone absolutely loopy.

says that man who thinks surprise baby barely taking ground of master of wine once it got out is the greatest cup trial of all time

No money for it antepost post race so no surprise to see the smarties in my camp

 

[Jugada]

did you not read my post? If a horse like fiorente can run top 2 in a cox plate not trying then RC can win a Melbourne cup not trying

Fiorente ran well in a lead up. No correlation

 

[iluvparis]

Fiorente ran well in a lead up. No correlation

yeah that’s true. RC hasn’t run well in any lead ups yet.

if MDG can finish alongside Surprise Baby in a Melbourne cup as an afterthought and a penalty I reckon RC can finished ahead of it

 

[Jugada]

yeah that’s true. RC hasn’t run well in any lead ups yet.

if MDG can finish alongside Surprise Baby in a Melbourne cup as an afterthought and a penalty I reckon RC can finished ahead of it

And he should run best of the locals in the race he is being set for over 2000m

Drawing some long bows to make a point today gee

 

[iluvparis]

And he should run best of the locals in the race he is being set for over 2000m

Drawing some long bows to make a point today gee

no im just pointing the huge logical flaws in your view which cannot be rebutted

Just to clarify - so if he had the same prep but MC was ultimate target ala Fiorente that would be ok?

 

[Jugada]

no im just pointing the huge logical flaws in your view which cannot be rebutted

Just to clarify - so if he had the same prep but MC was ultimate target ala Fiorente that would be ok?

Still wouldn't win cos he ain't that good but yes if he was being set purely for a MC he would be a much better chance than having it as an add on to a Cox Plate prep

 

[iluvparis]

Still wouldn't win cos he ain't that good but yes if he was being set purely for a MC he would be a much better chance than having it as an add on to a Cox Plate prep

interesting thought. Most likely wrong. Time will tell. If fiorente can do it this bloke can

huge concerns for the baby though that afterthought horses were finishing along side it in last years race.

 

[Jugada]

interesting thought. Most likely wrong. Time will tell. If fiorente can do it this bloke can

huge concerns for the baby though that afterthought horses were finishing along side it in last years race.

Fiorente didn't do it

 

[half_back_flank]

says that man who thinks surprise baby barely taking ground of master of wine once it got out is the greatest cup trial of all time

No money for it antepost post race so no surprise to see the smarties in my camp

Haha well done, deflect after you get your pants pulled down.

 

[iluvparis]

Fiorente didn't do it

Yes he did - you just need a talking head to tell you which race it can win - the rest of us can read the form.

Thoughts on afterthoughter MDG crossing the line with Suprise Baby last year? Hugely concerning for mine.

 

[iluvparis]

Haha well done, deflect after you get your pants pulled down.

 

[Jugada]

Yes he did - you just need a talking head to tell you which race it can win - the rest of us can read the form.

Thoughts on afterthoughter MDG crossing the line with Suprise Baby last year? Hugely concerning for mine.

No he didn't. He was always being set for the Cup but just used the CP as a lead up, much like the Baby will this year.

CC into MC an easier task, was a better horse and he still lost and was beaten home by the Baby.

 

[iluvparis]

No he didn't. He was always being set for the Cup but just used the CP as a lead up, much like the Baby will this year.

CC into MC an easier task, was a better horse and he still lost and was beaten home by the Baby.

So basically it's this EXACT PREP that means he can't win it - and that's only because they have said the MC isn't the main goal - clutching....at.....straws.

MDG - finishing alongside the baby after copping a CC penalty even though the race was an afterthought - I'd be worried a few more afterthought horses run by it this year.

And geez - I know I hate horses but you have basically marked RC on a scale no horse could match.

Can't win the Cox Plate because it didn't win the Underwood by 5 - can't win the Melbourne Cup because trainer said Cox Plate is main aim.

 

[half_back_flank]

Let’s just give the bloke some time and space to regroup. Tough day for him.

 

[Jugada]

So basically it's this EXACT PREP that means he can't win it - and that's only because they have said the MC isn't the main goal - clutching....at.....straws.

MDG - finishing alongside the baby after copping a CC penalty even though the race was an afterthought - I'd be worried a few more afterthought horses run by it this year.

And geez - I know I hate horses but you have basically marked RC on a scale no horse could match.

Can't win the Cox Plate because it didn't win the Underwood by 5 - can't win the Melbourne Cup because trainer said Cox Plate is main aim.

Similar prep, different goals.

Won't win the CP because it's not good enough and won't win the Melbourne Cup because it's not good enough and will be detouring to a 2 mile handicap after failing at his main aim over 2000m a week earlier

 

[plays tall 1]

The Turnbull told us nothing. Bunched finish. Wind-affected race. As you were.

 

[iluvparis]

The Turnbull told us nothing. Bunched finish. Wind-affected race. As you were.

Think it told us you can pen them all apart from the Baby and VE if it gets wet. But we already basically knew that already.

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Think it told us you can pen them all apart from the Baby and VE if it gets wet. But we already basically knew that already.

KOL ran ok , solid top 10 chance in MC

 

[iluvparis]

PARIS POWER RANKINGS - ROE v WADE

The Baby's hold on the #1 seed is aborted!


1 - TIGER MOTH (LW #2, $9.6) - now into outright fave on the fair as the market catches up to what we knew all along - this guy is the raider to beat
2 - RUSSIAN CAMELOT (LW #3, $11) - Takes over as the #1 local seed and looks the only class runner that can feature for Australia this year (barring a wet track)
3 - SANTIAGO (LW #4, $16) - booking of J Allen remains a concern but form around Tiger Moth has him right in this
4 - SURPRISE BABY (Last week #1, Betfair $10.50) - loses his grip on the top seed. Chugging along nicely but others look much more classier (generally a good horses race these days). Got out late in Turnbull and ran on late but that race looks awful and was struggling to take ground from MOW late.
5 - ANTHONY VAN DYCK (LW 5, $19.5 - The 2019 Epsom Derby winner. No. 1 seed at Caulfield where it has been much easier to carry weight in recent years but doing so at Flemington is another matter entirely. Big firmer on the fair this week.
6 - SIR DRAGONET (LW #6, $40 - Think Flemington suits the least of our big 3 but that didn't stop Johaness Vermeer almost winning at Flemington. Afterthought fappers would have their concerns.
7 - VERRY ELLEEGANT (LW #7, $22) - Nice win in an ordinary Turnbull sees her firm a few points. Would jump into top 3 contention if it got wet but think she will find a few better dry.
8 - FINCHE (LW #8, $21) - Into utter honest poi poi after turning it up in the Turnbull for the second year in a row. Watch him do the same when looking the winner in both cups.
9 - PRINCE OF ARRAN (LW #9, $40) - Any winning chance went up in smoke when some good horses actually decided to come. J Kah a good jockey booking
10 - MIRAGE DANCER (LW u/r, $65) - Really just shuffling deck chairs for the #10 slot but this was a nice Metrop win. That race is never good enough to produce the winner though but at least he is guaranteed a start.

 

[iluvparis]

KOL ran ok , solid top 10 chance in MC

I thought he went very ordinary.

 

[99 Problems]

Can't be trained for a 2000m race then expect to be able to perform at your best for a 2 mile race around the corner.

Makybe Diva doesn’t count? Or Saintly?

 

[Jugada]

Makybe Diva doesn’t count? Or Saintly?

The horse who won the 2 previous Melbourne Cups and the other trained by Bart Cummings? You don't think either of them had Flemington as their main aim in each prep?