Prediction The Run Home - Final Five

[jaytex]

Jaytex, you were uncannily prescient in that prediction, well, so far!
Does your crystal ball foresee any possible glitches eg vs Essendon at Etihad (where they play best).
If our blokes bring what they showed last Friday night every game, for eight games ==> we go top. Tough ask, but that's what Premiers do, plus the rest of the Comp. would hate for us to win this year's Flag, especially the Vics. All the more reason to stick it up'em.

Well it's hard to say at 10am on a Tuesday because my crystal ball functions best when plied with wine...

But we tend to match up well against Essendon and will have something to prove after annoyingly losing the Showdown the week before... so I'm sticking with my prediction of a shellacking at Etihad.

 

[JPetro83]

Sydney will have one bad game before the finals. Just have a feeling they will.

For the swans to finish top 4 they will have to win all 5 games

 

[Scrotes2000]

I'm still not sold on port at all, still yet to beat a top 8 side. They beat up on the lower teams and fail against the above teams,

Yea they beat Eagles in Perth but Eagles had no Kennedy also if they had kicked straight early in the game they would of been beaten

They look pretty good when theyre "on" though. May not have beaten a top 8 team yet but their wins over Hawks and the Eagles were pretty impressive.

I think we should win that game but I'm far from convinced it's going to be an easy one.


The Swans are going to be our toughest test I think we're all in agreement.

That final game of the H&A season against the Eagles makes me a little nervous....Not sure why

We need to get our midfield clicking like that every week. Same kind of attitude - I loved to see that against Geelong. Haven't had a chance to watch the replay yet, maybe tonight after work.

 

[VictorianCrow85]

Well it's late in the season now and instead of looking at the last few matches why not look at how we've gotten to this point. I've got to say I've thoroughly enjoyed this season and while it's had moments where I've been concerned if we go back and have a bit of a break down of the season so far I think there's a hell of a lot to be pleased with. This is how I see it thus far...

Early season, rounds 1 - 6
- Dominant and incredible start to the year looking extremely strong everywhere.
- High scoring to the max, brilliant to watch.
- Patches of it were some of the best football I'd seen any side play period.
- High point of the season was the Richmond win which we were challenged early then just utterly demolished them
- Primary knock was slow starts, losing many first quarters but rolled over the top anyway.

The slump, rounds 7 to 15
- The Kangaroos incident! The first quarter from hell that no one saw coming which exposed some real flaws and mostly just reality checked us badly that we weren't as far away from the rest of the comp as we hoped.
- Scoring dried up in our losses a lot due to Sloane being tagged, lot of players form dropped and our defense mechanisms were picked apart by certain sides.
- Beat up on the lesser opponents such as Brisbane and Freo which covered over the cracks a bit more.
- Extremely poor performances against Geelong and Melbourne made us look very second rate and like our season had partially hit the skids, made worse by a very flat performance against Hawthorn (which in hindsight may not have been as bad as first thought given their scalps and form since early season)
- Many doubts about our coaches ability to change things up to win instead of backing in the same old systems.
- Finally a scare from Carlton brought out a real intensity shift at the contest at half time and marked a turning point, particularly with effort, attitude and tactically too.

The resurgence, round 15 to present.
- Form starts coming back with a big lift in performance.
- Thommo gets brought in and all our problems disappear! Just kidding.
- Very strong performance against the Dogs, the first time in a long time I've seen us bring really pressure all over the ground instead of so much space guarding. Also marked some long awaited 'mongrel'
- Melbourne in Darwin - another strong performance, jumped them early with effeciency going forward and tactically thought Pyke was very astute in how he countered their midfield wave and numbers back compared to the early season loss. Let them back in with the 3rd quarter.
- Finally the nemesis Geelong conquered in an extremely dominant display from both players and our coaching panel. Highest overall intensity I've seen from us, a finals type intent. Tactically again we learned from our past failings and had some very noticeable plans to combat them:
1) A real urgency and direction to move the ball into our foward area from the center at all costs. Plenty of soccers, smash kicks forward to rush their defense and leave them no time to set up behind the ball. Now our kicks forward are always there but there was definitely more urgency about it.
2) We used much more aggressive switches deep in our defense to spread the ground and moved on our next kick out after faster to help get out where last time we got stuck.
3) Tagger finally used and certainly limited the influence of Selwood.
4) Even more mongrel! Instead of being bullied we finally did it to our opponent. Intent signaled by Matt Crouch pre bounce going immediately to Dangerfield to let him know we were there to play.


As for what all this means? It means we're now sitting top of the ladder with a real opportunity to finish top 2 and secure a home final. There is a tough draw ahead to achieve this but have a small amount of breathing space.

However if you look deeper at above with the break down of our season I think you can notice one of the biggest things emerging is that our coaches are indeed learning, adapting and implementing changes rather than just backing in the same old. We've gone from pretty much an all out attack mentality early in the season to now scoring a bit less but defensively being much tighter which is something I've personally hoped for as we were too leaky much of last year and earlier this year. I feel like maybe just maybe we've now got the balance right between attack and defense.

The other thing I'm optimistic about is that we did indeed have the slump and after a blistering start. In years gone by plenty of top sides have had slumps in their seasons but the big thing is responding and at the right time of year. It also exposes weakness and forced some changes for us to become a better side, both players and coaches alike. It's certainly useful to be tinkering with all these areas of concern and working out how to get past them well in advance of finals than just serving up the same old by that point and then wondering what went wrong.

It will now be interesting to see if the improved flexibility and altered game style will allow us to continue building all the way to finals and give it a real shake. Signs are good but need to prove this resurgence is sustainable.

 

[CrowBloke]

one of the biggest things emerging is that our coaches are indeed learning, adapting and implementing changes rather than just backing in the same old.

Wow, great post, really interesting analysis.
I am starting to believe that Pyke's benign, laid-back, good-ole-boy exterior is a facade beneath which is an intriguing mind with plenty happening in there. Sneaky . The Crows have adapted really well and Pyke has got to be the driver behind that.
Compare our blokes' attitude and willingness to work harder and be harder in beating the Dogs, Melbourne and Geelong relative to the meek surrenders against NM, Melbourne and Geelong earlier. Those losses were hard, valuable lessons.

The Crows are playing better now than when they were 6-0 and flying. They still have that beautiful run-and-spread overlap going, which shows fitness/skill and willingness to work hard, but they now have a tough edge which makes them more dangerous. Harder to beat, now.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

For the swans to finish top 4 they will have to win all 5 games

Not necessarily. 4/5 wins likely to give them top 4 & even possible with 3 wins, but unlikely.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Wow, great post, really interesting analysis.
I am starting to believe that Pyke's benign, laid-back, good-ole-boy exterior is a facade beneath which is an intriguing mind with plenty happening in there. Sneaky . The Crows have adapted really well and Pyke has got to be the driver behind that.
Compare our blokes' attitude and willingness to work harder and be harder in beating the Dogs, Melbourne and Geelong relative to the meek surrenders against NM, Melbourne and Geelong earlier. Those losses were hard, valuable lessons.

The Crows are playing better now than when they were 6-0 and flying. They still have that beautiful run-and-spread overlap going, which shows fitness/skill and willingness to work hard, but they now have a tough edge which makes them more dangerous. Harder to beat, now.

There is absolute no doubt Pyke gives bland press conferences because he doesn't want to give any advantage away.

Whilst many would prefer Pyke to be more informative in public, I prefer to have a coach doing everything possible to win the flag.

None of this telling the opposition coach they should tag Smith...

 

[CrowBloke]

There is absolute no doubt Pyke gives bland press conferences because he doesn't want to give any advantage away.
Whilst many would prefer Pyke to be more informative in public, I prefer to have a coach doing everything possible to win the flag.
None of this telling the opposition coach they should tag Smith...

The Carlton win didn't thrill me, but in the second half they showed some grit and willingness to tough it out. So, until the last three games I'd been losing faith in Pyke who had seemed rather stubborn. Inflexible. Ineffective, not likely to make changes, a bit like Craigy.
I couldn't have been more wrong, since it looks like behind-the-scenes he's been working hard at very astutely tweaking our game plan and encouraging some mongrel to go with it.
The changes have been very effective and I'll bet a few oppo coaches are scrambling to work out new ways to beat us. I saw an article with Douglas talking about being the hunters instead of being hunted. I think the Crows are both, now.

Who said they should tag Smith ...? Dangerfield?

 

[Alwaysacrow]

There is absolute no doubt Pyke gives bland press conferences because he doesn't want to give any advantage away.

Whilst many would prefer Pyke to be more informative in public, I prefer to have a coach doing everything possible to win the flag.

None of this telling the opposition coach they should tag Smith...

Absolutely. One thing I used to hate about Sando was that he would tell the world exactly how to beat the Crows which was completely moronic. I love the way Pyke keeps his cards close to his chest. He is quite boring but I can live with that.

 

[VictorianCrow85]

Wow, great post, really interesting analysis.
I am starting to believe that Pyke's benign, laid-back, good-ole-boy exterior is a facade beneath which is an intriguing mind with plenty happening in there. Sneaky . The Crows have adapted really well and Pyke has got to be the driver behind that.
Compare our blokes' attitude and willingness to work harder and be harder in beating the Dogs, Melbourne and Geelong relative to the meek surrenders against NM, Melbourne and Geelong earlier. Those losses were hard, valuable lessons.

The Crows are playing better now than when they were 6-0 and flying. They still have that beautiful run-and-spread overlap going, which shows fitness/skill and willingness to work hard, but they now have a tough edge which makes them more dangerous. Harder to beat, now.

We are playing harder, tougher footy now, the sort more likely to take us places in Finals if we can sustain it. Early in the year was exciting to watch, just blistering attack at the time but we did need to work a better blend out because it left our defenders high and dry with lack of pressure up the ground far too often. Just hope that Pyke and co continue to evolve things and continue with a bit more unpredictability that we've seen lately.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

The Carlton win didn't thrill me, but in the second half they showed some grit and willingness to tough it out. So, until the last three games I'd been losing faith in Pyke who had seemed rather stubborn. Inflexible. Ineffective, not likely to make changes, a bit like Craigy.
I couldn't have been more wrong, since it looks like behind-the-scenes he's been working hard at very astutely tweaking our game plan and encouraging some mongrel to go with it.
The changes have been very effective and I'll bet a few oppo coaches are scrambling to work out new ways to beat us. I saw an article with Douglas talking about being the hunters instead of being hunted. I think the Crows are both, now.

Who said they should tag Smith ...? Dangerfield?

Sanderson suggested Smith was in such good form other teams should tag him.

 

[CrowBloke]

Sanderson suggested Smith was in such good form other teams should tag him.

seriously??
*slaps forehead*

 

[Alwaysacrow]

seriously??
*slaps forehead*

Sando was an idiot.

 

[Scorpus]

seriously??
*slaps forehead*

Yep. And guess what? The week after he said that, teams started tagging Smith

 

[TheLeftFist8]

Yep. And guess what? The week after he said that, teams started tagging Smith

Apparently Pyke going to let it slip at the presser this week that teams should be tagging Mackay.

 

[davos44]

However if you look deeper at above with the break down of our season I think you can notice one of the biggest things emerging is that our coaches are indeed learning, adapting and implementing changes rather than just backing in the same old. We've gone from pretty much an all out attack mentality early in the season to now scoring a bit less but defensively being much tighter which is something I've personally hoped for as we were too leaky much of last year and earlier this year. I feel like maybe just maybe we've now got the balance right between attack and defense.

100% agree, I have been watching our squiggle take a steady and sure path east (defence) toward the premiership cups for the last month or so. Our scoring has been steady

If you recall Pyke engineered a similar change after the Bulldogs game in round 8 last year. All of a sudden we tightened up and played "better" football, this year. The moment Dale Thomas kicked that ripper of a goal to put them 1 point in front, it has felt different for me and the past 4 weeks have show us that.

Since that game we have flogged 2 Premiership "threats" (one was absolutely creamed over after beating Port by 3 goals for reasons best know to themselves) and smashed the reigning premier in driving rain by 9 goals.

Have you seen a Crows team in the last 2 decades "rattle" a top team? Physically bully them and show some actual spite. I sure haven't and it feels great to see them do that.

 

[pirate bob]

Have you seen a Crows team in the last 2 decades "rattle" a top team? Physically bully them and show some actual spite. I sure haven't and it feels great to see them do that.

2005 was ok. Can remember Roo legally shirt fronting quite a few opposition players.

 

[lincsPJ]

2005 was ok. Can remember Roo legally shirt fronting quite a few opposition players.

Roo illegally hitting someone probably cost us a flag, too.

 

[pirate bob]

Roo illegally hitting someone probably cost us a flag, too.

Yep - funnily enough it was a Selwood he put on his arse ..

 

[davos44]

2005 was ok. Can remember Roo legally shirt fronting quite a few opposition players.

That was a long time ago now.

 

[pirate bob]

That was a long time ago now.

12 years .. doesn't seem so long ago .. if I don't think about it too much

 

[Donkey Magoo]

Wow some of the predictions on here are pretty grim, 2/3 for the rest of the year after a pretty comprehensive performance on Friday night.

The first 6 weeks we showed how we can play fast blistering football, we took the game on, moved the ball fast and had pretty good skill. Still conceded a lot of points.

7-14 we played pretty patchy, the first qtr of footy against North was probably the worst that I've ever seen. Intensity dropped of as well ask skill. Teams worked out that running with us resulted in us kicking more goals but stopping us they scored the same

15-18 Heading into the Carlton match I was a little sick, my head said that we would do it but my gut told me otherwise. We did the early blitz thing they countered, we looked on the ropes, then under the golden light of the MCG on a saturday afternoon I saw some premiership brand football. We were tough, we were hard at the contest, we wanted the win. The side that had wilted the week before against the Hawks had been replaced. Since then we have stepped it up a gear, we still play fast, we play ugly when we have to, we get the win.
We can put the Jets on now and we can grind.

The Pies game is a mental test more then anything.

I agree with the earlier assessments about Sydney, they haven't faced real fire yet, I think this will hurt them at the pointy end, they still have a lot of kids.

We need to lead the ledger against Port.

Essendon playing ok without setting the world on fire

WCE garbage fire season, they will be packing for Bali.

We should go a min 4-1.

 

[TrainRoo32]

I need someone with some knowledge!
One Of my regular/loyal customers at work is massive Crows fan from day dot.....
He goes to me, that he has it on good authority that the boys had been "smashed and ran really hard" up until that Carlton game!

I thought it sounded a bit like bs but then I kept getting told that we did that in 1998 also!

Load of poo or some possible truth?

 

[pirate bob]

I need someone with some knowledge!
One Of my regular/loyal customers at work is massive Crows fan from day dot.....
He goes to me, that he has it on good authority that the boys had been "smashed and ran really hard" up until that Carlton game!

I thought it sounded a bit like bs but then I kept getting told that we did that in 1998 also!

Load of poo or some possible truth?

Not uncommon for training loads to vary during the year, with a view to having the team peaking come finals. I made the comment a couple of times during the period we lost games that they "looked slow". I had the same conversation with a friend about it at the time.

I have no idea if that is actually what happened though. It was talked about after previous GF's.

 

[GreyCrow]

I need someone with some knowledge!
One Of my regular/loyal customers at work is massive Crows fan from day dot.....
He goes to me, that he has it on good authority that the boys had been "smashed and ran really hard" up until that Carlton game!

I thought it sounded a bit like bs but then I kept getting told that we did that in 1998 also!

Load of poo or some possible truth?

That is a Blightism. I think Neil Craig with Pyke as assistant believed in loading. Went all the way back to Jack Cahill