The run home

[Overhang]

It's bye round so a good time to discuss the run home

We play
Essendon at the Gabba
Richmond at Metricon
Sydney at TBC

Top 4 is in our own hands, win all 3 and we are guaranteed top 4, if Port, Brisbane and Eagles win remaining games then the Richmond game will be for the top 4 spot unless us or Richmond have an upset against us. I feel that's a great draw leading into finals to get a finals like clash on the 2nd last game and follow up with what should be an easier game against the Swans.
Worth noting that we play Essendon who will be coming off a 5 day break after playing the Eagles compared to our 9 day break and conversely we play Richmond after a 5 day break from the Essendon game but the Tigers are coming off a 9 day break themselves.

There is still the bye round before the finals this year so lets hope the club can clear some mental demons in this mini bye period by flogging the Dons.

Personally I think we will win all 3, also think the Eagles will drop a game or 2 given their travel woes this year. I think Collingwood could beat Port in their round 18 clash as they should have some players back by then. However I can't see Brisbane dropping another which would mean 2nd is up for grabs

 

[Down at K Park]

We should win 2 of 3 minimum. The tigers game is probably 50/50.

 

[Footy Smarts]

West Coast have a tough schedule against teams pushing for the 8:

Richmond off a 4 day break
Essendon off a 5 day break
Bulldogs off a 5 day break
StKilda off a 4 day break

They haven't proven their ability to back up for multiple games and they're 2-4 in games in Queensland this year. Of course we want to win all our games but there's every chance 2-1 will be enough for top 4.

 

[Chinacats]

Top 4 in our hands. Expect to win all 3 and finish 2-3. Lose to tigers we could finish 5th depending on West Coast. 5th vs 8th in an elimination final. Giants looking at 8th. That’s worse case scenario for mine. One final and OUT!
Can’t win the flag From 5th - 8th so the tigers game is a flag game in many ways. NO EXCUSES!
And don’t forget must best Essendon & Sydney. Can’t forget how important they are. Can’t have half an eye on those games and think of bigger games to come. They need to be disposed of.

 

[BlakeyNoFlakey]

I'm not too worried if we lose to Richmond. I think this year's flag is winnable outside the top 4 this year. Ultimately, being in the top 4 means we could potentially face a final in WA or SA or both, so that's going to make it harder anyway. The easiest path is going straight to the prelim from a top 4 spot, but given our history with poor form after breaks (and remember a team getting to the prelim from top 4 ends up with two byes), I wouldn't mind if we had to play every week.

 

[Footy_Fan2007]

Think we will lose 1. But I also think Port, Bris and the eagles will all drop 1 too.
Should finish top 4.

 

[Commando]

We've won 5 on the bounce, IF we win the next 3 and secure the top 4 and win another 3 finals that makes for an 11 game streak.
surely we drop one somewhere
FWIW I think the Eagles will lose another game this year which allows us to have a hiccup in the last 3 rounds

 

[Spearman]

Will be interesting to see how the players cope with this last festival. The cumulative effect of so many short turnarounds might hit any of them, or us, hard.

 

[Vdubs]

We've won 5 on the bounce, IF we win the next 3 and secure the top 4 and win another 3 finals that makes for an 11 game streak.
surely we drop one somewhere
FWIW I think the Eagles will lose another game this year which allows us to have a hiccup in the last 3 rounds

Tigers 2019- no losses after we beat them at rd 12. We don't have to lose one. I'm all for maintaining the rage and issuing a statement that we can win every week. In the past, each of our flags were predated by a loss at the second last game. So if that holds true, we lose to Tigers.

 

[patience]

It's bye round so a good time to discuss the run home

No, its not a b**, its just a long week. Don't mention the B** word.

We should win two and I'll be very interested in what happens with the tigers. Will clubs keep their cards close to their chests? Will they try and gain a psychological advantage and pull a win?

 

[you pick one]

Other than true upsets I only see 2games in the run home from here that could change the top 5,Geelong v Richmond and West Coast v Saints.

 

[catempire]

Here’s FoxFooty’s Max Laughton’s attempt at it:*


PROJECTED WEEK 1 OF FINALS

First Qualifying Final (1 v 4): Port Adelaide v West Coast Eagles



First Elimination Final (5 v 8): Richmond v Melbourne

Second Elimination Final (6 v 7): St Kilda v Collingwood

Second Qualifying Final (2 v 3): Brisbane Lions v Geelong Cats

Note: Eagles ahead of Lions for second on percentage.

PROJECTED FINAL LADDER

1. Port Adelaide (13.1 projected wins)

2. Brisbane Lions (12.55)

3. Geelong Cats (11.9)

4. West Coast Eagles (11.65)

5. Richmond (11.5)

6. St Kilda (9.7)

7. Collingwood (9.65)

8. Melbourne (9.55)

9. GWS Giants (9.1)

10. Western Bulldogs (8.6)

11. Carlton (8.25)

12. Essendon (7.75)

13. Gold Coast Suns (7)

14. Fremantle (6.6)

15. Hawthorn (5.65)

16. Sydney Swans (5.25)

17. North Melbourne (4.35)

18. Adelaide Crows (1.2)


2. GEELONG CATS (10-4, 138.7%)

Remaining games: Bye, Essendon at Gabba, Richmond at MS, Sydney Swans away

Remaining fixture difficulty: 10th-hardest

It ended up being a great weekend for the Cats, with the Tigers doing them a favour by knocking off West Coast on Thursday night, followed by their great escape against the Bulldogs.

Geelong will be a strong favourite against both Essendon and Sydney, so it’s probably all going to come down to the Round 17 clash with Richmond.

The Tigers also have two easy games left, so the winner of that game should make the top four, while the loser will risk being passed by the Eagles.

The Cats can also still be passed by Brisbane, who have a game in hand and one fewer loss on the board, but if the Lions slip up, Chris Scott’s side would be well ahead on percentage.

Fox Footy’s projection: 11.9 wins, finishing third


*he’s a Cats man

 

[Pure_Ownage]

West Coast have a tough schedule against teams pushing for the 8:

Richmond off a 4 day break
Essendon off a 5 day break
Bulldogs off a 5 day break
StKilda off a 4 day break

They haven't proven their ability to back up for multiple games and they're 2-4 in games in Queensland this year. Of course we want to win all our games but there's every chance 2-1 will be enough for top 4.

I think Richmond will win all their other games except us. So if we win all 3 we are guaranteed top 4 if we only win 2 we need the eagles to drop a couple of games or we will finish 5th. Although I reckon that's not as much of a disadvantage this year compared to most years.

 

[foxdog50]

Stupid question.... are the finals crowd will they be at a limited crowd size due to covid restrictions?

 

[jim boy]

Stupid question.... are the finals crowd will they be at a limited crowd size due to covid restrictions?

The finals will not get an exemption from whatever restrictions are in place. Would not get your hopes up for more than 50% capacity

 

[GeelongFTW]

Tigers 2019- no losses after we beat them at rd 12. We don't have to lose one. I'm all for maintaining the rage and issuing a statement that we can win every week. In the past, each of our flags were predated by a loss at the second last game. So if that holds true, we lose to Tigers.

We had our 'loss' on Friday without actually giving up the four points.

 

[Vivy]

I think it's most likely that WCE don't make the top 4.

They've had a soft run with all their home games and now they're coming into the fixture crunch against 3 hungry teams in 9 days. They haven't had to do the fixture crunch all year, and all games will be against teams more familiar with the grounds they're playing on.

Odds are against the Eagles and I expect them to struggle prior to finals.

Considering this we need to win at least 2 of 3 to get us in the top 4. I back us in against anyone, anywhere and think we win our first qualifying final since 2016.

 

[tomthabuddah1]

I felt the last round loss verse the lions Last year really affected us. Need to hit finals in form and win all 3.

 

[The Casey Cat]

Think we will lose 1. But I also think Port, Bris and the eagles will all drop 1 too.
Should finish top 4.

Lions aren't going to lose a game. Port might lose to Magpies.

 

[Landgraft]

Feels like we're going to finish second. Chris Scott loves second place on the ladder.