Traded Tim Kelly [traded with #57 and future 3rd to West Coast for #14, #24, #33 and future 1st]

[Wally Walpamur]

Hogan and Lobb? Wilson is pretty decent as well.

Brad Hill, Jesse Hogan and Rory Lobb were all pretty excellent trades.

Hill has requested a trade after three year while contracted, Hogan played half a season and may never get back to full health because of his ongoing navicular issues and Lobb has been OK. Wilson has been very average IMO. He can run and kick it long but his kicking isn’t as good as what some people think. Also makes some bad decisions under pressure.

 

[Wally Walpamur]

I'm pretty sure a trade will get done between Westcoast and Geelong. I'd love to see a poll on what people think the final trade will be though because it seems to me that there is a massive difference in opinion.

My guess is a 3rd party will be involved. Something like:

Geelong
Gain 5 + 14 + 22 + Steven
Lose 16 + 34 + 52 + future 3rd + Kelly
(1,783 points plus Steven)

WCE:
Gain: Kelly + 34 + future 3rd
Lose: 14, 22, Future 1st
(Equivalent of pick 9 + 20 or 2,379 points)

St Kilda:
Gain: 16 + Future 1st (WCE) + 52
Lose: 5 + Steven
(Gains equivalent of pick 32)

*Assumes the value of WCE future 1st is pick 14
** Assumes the value of Gee future 3rd is pick 52
*** Assumes Steven is worth pick 40 and St Kilda deserves a point premium for giving up pick 5
**** Assumes Kelly is worth 2,379 points

It'll all be different once we know where compo picks and academy bidding falls but I think that's the ballpark of the trade. I've heard a 3rd for Steven but if it's more than Geelong will have to give up a bit more to St Kilda.

Saints pick is coming to Freo for Hill.

 

[amazingjoshy]

I'm pretty sure a trade will get done between Westcoast and Geelong. I'd love to see a poll on what people think the final trade will be though because it seems to me that there is a massive difference in opinion.

My guess is a 3rd party will be involved. Something like:

Geelong
Gain 5 + 14 + 22 + Steven
Lose 16 + 34 + 52 + future 3rd + Kelly
(1,783 points plus Steven)

WCE:
Gain: Kelly + 34 + future 3rd
Lose: 14, 22, Future 1st
(Equivalent of pick 9 + 20 or 2,379 points)

St Kilda:
Gain: 16 + Future 1st (WCE) + 52
Lose: 5 + Steven
(Gains equivalent of pick 32)

*Assumes the value of WCE future 1st is pick 14
** Assumes the value of Gee future 3rd is pick 52
*** Assumes Steven is worth pick 40 and St Kilda deserves a point premium for giving up pick 5
**** Assumes Kelly is worth 2,379 points

It'll all be different once we know where compo picks and academy bidding falls but I think that's the ballpark of the trade. I've heard a 3rd for Steven but if it's more than Geelong will have to give up a bit more to St Kilda.

would take, pretty good effort

I reckon as simple as 14, 24 2020 1st for Kelly + 36 gets it done.

But there's a million permutations involving other clubs, and this looks like a really good one to me

 

[Asapartyhat]

So Kelly said he has no issue with Fremantle but has nominated WCE.
-you could spin that a few ways I suppose.
No ! .Issue with Fremantle !
.Would be the way I would read it.

 

[Nickoo]

LOL.

Freo is great and all but I prefer WC though somehow translates into happy to go to Freo. Talk about desperate.

What are you on about? This idea that he’s not happy to go to Freo just went out the window. There was no fact just WC supporter hype.

He prefers WC, however Freo are now in box seat. Going on last year not sure that WC want him that much but we’ll see come Monday onwards.


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[Max zero]

Hill has requested a trade after three year while contracted, Hogan played half a season and may never get back to full health because of his ongoing navicular issues and Lobb has been OK. Wilson has been very average IMO. He can run and kick it long but his kicking isn’t as good as what some people think. Also makes some bad decisions under pressure.

You will get a good pick for Hill though.

Often takes a while for new players to gel. Jetta took like 2-3 years to find his groove with us.

 

[Blueeygrey]

Cool story.

Not sure why WC care what Freo offer. All 3 parties (the 2 clubs and the player) need to sign for the trade. TK has made it clear, multiple times (including recently through his manager to correct intentional misinformation from Geelong) that he wants a trade to WC.

Geelong can go and get an offer from GC, Freo or Adelaide. All means the same, absolutely nothing. If or when WC and Geelong meet agreement then TK's management need to pick up the phone. Not prior to be pitched a job he has no interest in.

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Fremantle wouldn't do that, especially as the new coach has previous affiliations with both clubs. Perth is big enough for two clubs. J Longmuir would know that there are more benefits of West Australian clubs maintaining a mutual friendships. Freo's destiny or success won't be determined by one draft. GC is testimony to that. All this conjecture has been driven by the bizarre antics going on at Geelong. I think many Club's are watching with some bemusement at the irregularities emanating from GFC.

 

[amazingjoshy]

What are you on about? This idea that he’s not happy to go to Freo just went out the window. There was no fact just WC supporter hype.

He prefers WC, however Freo are now in box seat. Going on last year not sure that WC want him that much but we’ll see come Monday onwards.


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Freo being in the box seat is the worst situation for Geelong. Just think aboutit logically for a second.

They're not giving up 6&7...they have ALL the power in a trade negotiation.

 

[Max zero]

What are you on about? This idea that he’s not happy to go to Freo just went out the window. There was no fact just WC supporter hype.

He prefers WC, however Freo are now in box seat. Going on last year not sure that WC want him that much but we’ll see come Monday onwards.


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Exact words:

Q: Why did you choose WC
A: I've spoken to the appropriate people about that and don't feel the need to share it
Q: Would you play for Freo
A: I have no issue with Freo as a club, most people have preferences these days and mine is West Coast

So he choose WC for an issue he does not want to discuss publically. That seems like something quite serious.

You know what people saying when they are happy to be traded to a team? "I am happy to be traded to that team." Its pretty simple. Sidesteping the question and then restating your preference for WC is the not the words of a man happy to play for Freo.

 

[raffrox]

Which then turns into WCE returning the favour at some stage. Your short term joy at something pointless turns into pain down the track.

Blah blah blah.

West Coast looks after West Coast and we'll do the same thanks.

We should all be happy that a WA player was AA captain right? Things seem to change when west coast isn't the beneficiary.

I can't think of a single time the WA first way of thinking has helped Freo.

 

[Nickoo]

He didn't say that at all. He said he's chosen WC he has no issue at all with Freo as a club.

That’s right. But the idea he’d be desperate not to go there as your cohort are putting forward is not substantiated. Where he ends up is where Geelong trade him. He’d happy with either, happier with one.


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[DanA]

Exact words:



So he choose WC for an issue he does not want to discuss publically. That seems like something quite serious.

You know what people saying when they are happy to be traded to a team? "I am happy to be traded to that team." Its pretty simple. Sidesteping the question and then restating your preference for WC is the not the words of a man happy to play for Freo.

Hypothetically, if Tim was considering Fremantle but just preferred WCE. It would be in his interest to say exactly what he said. He wouldn't want Geelong to entertain Freo until WCE options were exhausted.

 

[shooshka]

That’s right. But the idea he’d be desperate not to go there as your cohort are putting forward is not substantiated. Where he ends up is where Geelong trade him. He’d happy with either, happier with one.


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Both completely incorrect.

He has to agree where he goes, so not up to Geelong at all.

Nowhere did he say he is happy with either. He said there was a reason it wasn't Freo, he wouldn't share the reason and that he has requested a trade to WC.

It really can't be any clearer.

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[Max zero]

Hypothetically, if Tim was considering Fremantle but just preferred WCE. It would be in his interest to say exactly what he said. He wouldn't want Geelong to entertain Freo until WCE options were exhausted.

No if he was considering Fremantle he would say "while I prefer WC the priority is to play in WA" or the even crazier "I'm willing to consider Fremantle but prefer WC."

"No issue with Freo but prefer WC" is pretty blatant. Especially when he won't go into the why he prefers WC publically.

 

[amazingjoshy]

That’s right. But the idea he’d be desperate not to go there as your cohort are putting forward is not substantiated. Where he ends up is where Geelong trade him. He’d happy with either, happier with one.


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lol hold your breath for 6&7 then.

My guess is this gets done earlier that what everyone thinks.

14 + 2020 1st + a swap of further picks (say 24 for 36) gets it done.

Any more, Cats know WC could potentially manoeuvre into 3,4 or 5 in the draft.

Any less, WC know they could lose to Freo in the draft.

 

[DanA]

Freo being in the box seat is the worst situation for Geelong. Just think aboutit logically for a second.

They're not giving up 6&7...they have ALL the power in a trade negotiation.

But the best situation for Geelong is to have both WCE and Fremantle making offers. We might not get 6 & 7 but if it's better than what WCE offer and Tim is willing to take it then that what Geelong will do.

 

[Blueeygrey]

I'm pretty sure a trade will get done between Westcoast and Geelong. I'd love to see a poll on what people think the final trade will be though because it seems to me that there is a massive difference in opinion.

My guess is a 3rd party will be involved. Something like:

Geelong
Gain 5 + 14 + 22 + Steven
Lose 16 + 34 + 52 + future 3rd + Kelly
(1,783 points plus Steven)

WCE:
Gain: Kelly + 34 + future 3rd
Lose: 14, 22, Future 1st
(Equivalent of pick 9 + 20 or 2,379 points)

St Kilda:
Gain: 16 + Future 1st (WCE) + 52
Lose: 5 + Steven
(Gains equivalent of pick 32)

*Assumes the value of WCE future 1st is pick 14
** Assumes the value of Gee future 3rd is pick 52
*** Assumes Steven is worth pick 40 and St Kilda deserves a point premium for giving up pick 5
**** Assumes Kelly is worth 2,379 points

It'll all be different once we know where compo picks and academy bidding falls but I think that's the ballpark of the trade. I've heard a 3rd for Steven but if it's more than Geelong will have to give up a bit more to St Kilda.

Pretty good, although from a WC perspective giving up 2 firsts and an early 2nd is probably too much, also St Kilda is giving up pick 5 for little and the chance to recruit B. Hill. Geelong the big winners here! Don't understand the Steven undervaluation.

 

[shooshka]

Hypothetically, if Tim was considering Fremantle but just preferred WCE. It would be in his interest to say exactly what he said. He wouldn't want Geelong to entertain Freo until WCE options were exhausted.

Hypothetically if Freo are his most hated club and he hates every single person there it is also in his best interest to say exactly what he just did.

2 team town so no point pissing off 30% of the population (He's just got to the point of being able to get his family away from an abusive fanbase, no reason to stoke another one).

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[DanA]

No if he was considering Fremantle he would say "while I prefer WC the priority is to play in WA."

"No issue with Freo but prefer WC" is pretty blatant. Especially when he won't go into the why he prefers WC publically.

I guess we have a difference of opinion. Because I think saying that opens the door immediately for Geelong to trade with Fremantle and I think Tim sees it (if he is even entertaining Freo as an option) as a backup option.

 

[Scotland]

Pretty good, although from a WC perspective giving up 2 firsts and an early 2nd is probably too much, also St Kilda is giving up pick 5 for little and the chance to recruit B. Hill. Geelong the big winners here! Don't understand the Steven undervaluation.

St Kilda aren't trading pick 5 and Steven to gain 16 and a future first.

 

[Max zero]

I guess we have a difference of opinion. Because I think saying that opens the door immediately for Geelong to trade with Fremantle and I think Tim sees it (if he is even entertaining Freo as an option) as a backup option.

I think perhaps you are seeing what you want to see. To me when I offer someone an option and they reply with: "Yeah thats okay but <other option>" its really not okay.

People who are happy with an offer don't immediately offer an alternative option in reply.

 

[amazingjoshy]

But the best situation for Geelong is to have both WCE and Fremantle making offers. We might not get 6 & 7 but if it's better than what WCE offer and Tim is willing to take it then that what Geelong will do.

But that isn't how trade negotiations work. Players pick a club and say trade me there.

They don't say trade me wherever you like, just get the best deal for you, don't worry about me.

 

[Wally Walpamur]

lol hold your breath for 6&7 then.

My guess is this gets done earlier that what everyone thinks.

14 + 2020 1st + a swap of further picks (say 24 for 36) gets it done.

Any more, Cats know WC could potentially manoeuvre into 3,4 or 5 in the draft.

Any less, WC know they could lose to Freo in the draft.

How do West Coast trade to get either 3, 4 94 5 in the draft?

 

[Peel67skin]

St Kilda aren't trading pick 5 and Steven to gain 16 and a future first.

You really need to get into your head that sometime dodgy thing happen in the last minute , eg eagle pick 18 for GC multiple second Rd pick in 2017 draft.

 

[amazingjoshy]

How do West Coast trade to get either 3, 4 94 5 in the draft?

Just as an example ( a million different permutations...

2020 1st + 33 gets Dogs 13 (maybe with 48 back)

13,14 + 24 goes very close to 3,4 or 5