Banter Who will be better in 2024? Carlton or Collingwood?

[Chism]

It's simple isn't it, Pie supporters can't seem to grasp it.

Funny when Ginnivan was in their jumper they saw every illegal tactic against him!

 

[doppleganger]

Hawkins highest return ever was 68 goals, in a season where he got 25 frees for himself... Something not adding up there... Been borrowing Fudgeys faulty abacus?

67 goals in 22 with just 17 frees

An extra 22 frees gets him up to 89 goals, and when closing in on a milestone he would start getting more selfish (Cats look to feed him more).

It aint that hard really.

But defenders are allowed to grapple with TomaHawk.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

67 goals in 22 with just 17 frees

An extra 22 frees gets him up to 89 goals, and when closing in on a milestone he would start getting more selfish (Cats look to feed him more).

It aint that hard really.

But defenders are allowed to grapple with TomaHawk.

Ironic, Curnow only kicked 17 goals from free kicks in 2023...

Maf!

 

[Fadge]

Funny when Ginnivan was in their jumper they saw every illegal tactic against him!

Astounding you'd reference Ginnivan whilst trying to defend the number of free kicks Charlie and Harry receive...

Then again, nothing should surprise me with you guys...

 

[carlton_99]

67 goals in 22 with just 17 frees

An extra 22 frees gets him up to 89 goals, and when closing in on a milestone he would start getting more selfish (Cats look to feed him more).

It aint that hard really.

But defenders are allowed to grapple with TomaHawk.

You understand that not every free kick leads to a goal... right?

 

[carlton_99]

Astounding you'd reference Ginnivan whilst trying to defend the number of free kicks Charlie and Harry receive...

Then again, nothing should surprise me with you guys...

There is a significant difference between illegal infringement by defenders who can't go with their opponent and what Ginni was doing

 

[Chism]

67 goals in 22 with just 17 frees

An extra 22 frees gets him up to 89 goals, and when closing in on a milestone he would start getting more selfish (Cats look to feed him more).

It aint that hard really.

But defenders are allowed to grapple with TomaHawk.

Tomahawk is more so a victim of his own style of play as he likes to out body defenders in a scrap where he does as much holding as the defender and to his credit he is good at it and wins a heap of those 1 v 1 contests due to his amazing strength. Charlie plays differently and relies on separation and running and out jumping his opponents in the air and if he gets the first step on you defenders have to hold him illegally to stop him.

 

[Fadge]

There is a significant difference between illegal infringement by defenders who can't go with their opponent and what Ginni was doing

Nah, it's just a classic example there are one set of rules for some players, and a different set of rules for others.

 

[Arr0w]

Loving it. Pies now resorting to free kick counts

Must have given up on 2024

Juicy

 

[Worm4]

The probabilities were the other way around, but finally we have someone who understands basic probability.

Unsurprisingly, it's not a Carlton supporter.

So you have agreed with someone and Carlton are at $7 to beat Collingwood according to your probability. Again, where can I get me some of that action ?

 

[Arr0w]

Nah, it's just a classic example there are one set of rules for some players, and a different set of rules for others.

"Here we go blaming umpires again, oh my, woowee"

 

[Chism]

"Here we go blaming umpires again, oh my, woowee"

The Mihocek stat of having more frees than Charlie this year so far has them stumped!

 

[Fadge]

So you have agreed with someone and Carlton are at $7 to beat Collingwood according to your probability. Again, where can I get me some of that action ?

Well that's what I posted.

Astounding it took you 20 posts to work it out...

The big question - do you actually understand the calculation now?

 

[Fadge]

The Mihocek stat of having more frees than Charlie this year so far has them stumped!

Oh, of course it does.

Small data set, notwithstanding 4 games compared to 3.

A classic Carlton 'gotcha' moment!

 

[Arr0w]

Well that's what I posted.

Astounding it took you 20 posts to work it out...

The big question - do you actually understand the calculation now?

Fadge you really need to stop giving lessons about math and probability given your track record

It's truly embarrassing, even your own supporter group laugh

 

[carlton_99]

Nah, it's just a classic example there are one set of rules for some players, and a different set of rules for others.

If Curnow was getting frees for what Ginni was not getting them for you would have a point. However, that is simply not the case.

 

[Worm4]

If Collingwood have a 15% chance to win then the return should be approximately 7-1 so about $7 and Carlton would be about $1.16 (assume a market with no margin ie a even game is $2 each, not $1.90 each)

Edit sorry misread the post re who had the 15% chance, flip the team names around thanks

Unfortunately it doesn't work like that
For instance, Richmond are $4 v swans at $1.25
Next week - Brisbane $1.12 v north $6
The market realistically would be collingwood $1.15 v Carlton $5
So I'm $2.15 off the mark, and your hawthorn friend is $2 off the mark and the median ground is correct. So who is talking sense here ?

 

[Arr0w]

I expected the laughs would be a slow burn today, but it's come around quickly again

 

[Fadge]

Unfortunately it doesn't work like that
For instance, Richmond are $4 v swans at $1.25
Next week - Brisbane $1.12 v north $6
The market realistically would be collingwood $1.15 v Carlton $5
So I'm $2.15 off the mark, and your hawthorn friend is $2 off the mark and the median ground is correct. So who is talking sense here ?

Oh my....

I'll take your answer as 'no, I still don't get it'...

 

[Worm4]

Well that's what I posted.

Astounding it took you 20 posts to work it out...

The big question - do you actually understand the calculation now?

I'm sure I do but your probability of 85/15 is way off in my opinion.

 

[Arr0w]

And 3

 

[Worm4]

Oh my....

I'll take your answer as 'no, I still don't get it'...

Tell me this Mr odds man . If Brisbane is $1.12, then why isn't north at anything over $7 then ? Check out the odds at TAB . I'm sure you won't have any answer to that other than WoW !

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Charlie Curnow

30

Charlie Curnow

Age

28

Ht

194cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.3

3star

K

9.7

4star

HB

3.6

3star

M

5.3

5star

T

2.2

4star

G

1.3

5star

No current season stats available

D

10.8

3star

K

6.4

3star

HB

4.4

4star

M

3.2

4star

T

1.6

4star

G

0.8

4star

is averaging 1.7 frees a game this season

Max King

Multiple players found. Use birthday to differentiate. eg [PLAYERCARD="23/11/1962"]Joe Smith[/PLAYERCARD]

3.0
Nick Larkey

20

Nick Larkey

Age

27

Ht

198cm

Wt

96kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

8.5

2star

K

4.6

2star

HB

3.9

3star

M

3.3

3star

T

1.5

3star

G

1.4

5star

D

7.0

1star

K

4.0

1star

HB

3.0

2star

M

2.0

2star

T

1.0

2star

G

1.0

4star

D

8.8

3star

K

4.2

2star

HB

4.6

4star

M

3.2

4star

T

1.4

4star

G

0.8

4star

2.0
Ollie Henry 2.0
Josh Daicos

7

Josh Daicos

Age

27

Ht

178cm

Wt

77kg

Pos.

D/M

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.6

4star

K

8.3

3star

HB

7.3

5star

M

3.3

3star

T

3.6

5star

MG

230.5

4star

D

16.2

4star

K

9.2

4star

HB

7.0

4star

M

3.3

3star

T

3.5

4star

MG

230.5

4star

D

13.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

6.2

4star

M

3.2

4star

T

4.2

5star

1.8
Scott Pendlebury

10

Scott Pendlebury

Age

37

Ht

191cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

26.5

5star

K

13.2

5star

HB

13.3

5star

M

4.1

4star

T

4.9

5star

CL

4.9

5star

D

25.1

5star

K

12.3

5star

HB

12.9

5star

M

3.4

3star

T

2.3

3star

CL

3.6

4star

D

12.4

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

4.8

4star

M

5.8

5star

T

2.6

4star

1.8


FREE KICK CURNOW! UMPS HAVE BEEN PAID OFF! FRAUDULENT COLEMAN! COX WOULD HAVE KICKED 150!

 

[Crankyhawk]

Unfortunately it doesn't work like that
For instance, Richmond are $4 v swans at $1.25
Next week - Brisbane $1.12 v north $6
The market realistically would be collingwood $1.15 v Carlton $5
So I'm $2.15 off the mark, and your hawthorn friend is $2 off the mark and the median ground is correct. So who is talking sense here ?

Yes, that's what happens with the commercial $1.90 market (where an even money match is $1.90). It does make the math a bit harder (I think if collingwood are an 85% chance to win, the return offered for a collingwood bet would be more along the $1.10-1.12 for the commercial market)

Edit
So I found this betting calculator - noting that it is set for a fair (no margin market) - you can test this by setting implied odds at 50 (eg to represent a coin toss) and the payout is $2 (not the $1.90 that our cheapskate betting markets are)
If you set the implied odds at 15, then the payout will be 6.67 (so yes slightly less than what I said for a $2/ fair market)

Betting Odds Calculator & Converter | The Action Network

The betting odds calculator allows you to input your stake & odds in American, Decimal, or Fractional formats to quickly calculate the payout for your bets.

www.actionnetwork.com

Edit 2 and for a return of $2.85 the chance of victory is 35% in this "fair" market, which if we allow for the margin (real life/ $1.90 market) then you probably get a $2.85 return if you have a 30% chance of winning

 

[Arr0w]

Embarrassing that the Pie supporters are deflecting from the 2024 OP