Opinion Who will be our next head coach?

[StCicatriz]

Coburg was Richmond's VFL affiliate in 2011.
Williamstown ended their affiliation with the Dogs at the end of the 2013 season.

2002 - Geelong VFL Premiers. 2003 Geelong finish 12th.
2003 - Box Hill make finals. Hawthorn finish 15th in 2004.
2004 - Box Hill finish 7th. Hawthorn finish 14th in 2005.
2005 - Geelong finish bottom of VFL. 2007 Geelong win premiership.
2006 - Box Hill finish 10th. Hawthorn finish 5th in 2007.
2007 - Box Hill finish 2nd last. Hawthorn premiership in 2008.

List goes on and on.

No direct correlation.

There clearly is a correlation with delay.

The results don't immediately follow there's a delay of 2-3 years. Similar to WCE with east Perth.

Williamstown still made finals in 2013. Then the dogs won a VFL flag when they went standalone. Proceeding their AFL performance.

Tigers you are correct. So out of all the rebuilding sides 1 didn't occur. Pretty damn good form line!

 

[George]

Sandringham:
2014 sneak into finals
2015 2nd on ladder
2016 7th
2017 bottom 4
2018 bottom 3
2019 bottom 4

St Kilda
2016 miss finals on %
2017 2 wins from finals
2018 bottom 4
2019 bottom 4

You could almost lock in the saints in 2020 for bottom 4.

Our VFL results are proceeding our AFL results which makes sense given the talent pathway.

You went back to 2002 on previous clubs so lets do the same with St.Kilda

2002 - Springvale finish 11th. St.Kilda finish 11th in 2003.
2003 - Springvale finish 6th. St.Kilda finish in a prelim in 2004.
2004 - Springvale finish bottom. St.Kilda finish in a prelim in 2005. (Crazy we made a preliminary final AND finished bottom of the VFL in the same year)
2005 - Springvale finish 11th. St.Kilda finish 6th in 2006.
2006 - Casey finish 11th. St.Kilda finish 9th in 2007 and then make prelim in 2008.
2008 - Casey finish 5th. St.Kilda make GF in 2009.
2009 - Sandringham finish 10th. St.Kilda make GF in 2010.
2010 - Sandringham finish 9th. St.Kilda make finals in 2011.
2011 - Sandringham finish 10th. St.Kilda finish 9th in 2012.
2012 - Sandringham finish 6th. St.Kilda miss finals in 2013
2013 - Sandringham finish 11th. St.Kilda miss finals in 2014
2014 - Sandringham finish 8th. St.Kilda miss finals in 2015
2015 - Sandringham finish 2nd. St.Kilda miss finals in 2016, 2017, and 4 wins in 2018.

Etc etc.

I can't see any direct correlation in any of that at all.

 

[George]

There clearly is a correlation with delay.

The results don't immediately follow there's a delay of 2-3 years. Similar to WCE with east Perth.

Williamstown still made finals in 2013. Then the dogs won a VFL flag when they went standalone. Proceeding their AFL performance.

Tigers you are correct. So out of all the rebuilding sides 1 didn't occur. Pretty damn good form line!

Can't see any correlation at all.

In 2006 we finished 11th in the VFL and then the following four seasons in the AFL we finished 9th, PF, GF, GF.

 

[StCicatriz]

You went back to 2002 on previous clubs so lets do the same with St.Kilda

2002 - Springvale finish 11th. St.Kilda finish 11th in 2003.
2003 - Springvale finish 6th. St.Kilda finish in a prelim in 2004.
2004 - Springvale finish bottom. St.Kilda finish in a prelim in 2005. (Crazy we made a preliminary final AND finished bottom of the VFL in the same year)
2005 - Springvale finish 11th. St.Kilda finish 6th in 2006.
2006 - Casey finish 11th. St.Kilda finish 9th in 2007 and then make prelim in 2008.
2008 - Casey finish 5th. St.Kilda make GF in 2009.
2009 - Sandringham finish 10th. St.Kilda make GF in 2010.
2010 - Sandringham finish 9th. St.Kilda make finals in 2011.
2011 - Sandringham finish 10th. St.Kilda finish 9th in 2012.
2012 - Sandringham finish 6th. St.Kilda miss finals in 2013
2013 - Sandringham finish 11th. St.Kilda miss finals in 2014
2014 - Sandringham finish 8th. St.Kilda miss finals in 2015
2015 - Sandringham finish 2nd. St.Kilda miss finals in 2016, 2017, and 4 wins in 2018.

Etc etc.

I can't see any direct correlation in any of that at all.

Ok so

2003 Springvale make finals but the saints don't. Then in 2004 we do make finals. So the VFL sides performance predated the AFL sides performance at the start of our rebuild. Which is my point!!!!!

Springvale also made the top 4 in 2001!!!

You just gave me another example.

So all we have is richmond but literally all the other Victorian side have followed the same form line.

What happens post finals is another question all together. But the point is here is about the trend before we play finals from our rebuild.

I reckon we will see a spike in the performance at Sandy before our AFL side. That'll be the indicator.

 

[George]

Ok so

2003 Springvale make finals but the saints don't. Then in 2004 we do make finals. So the VFL sides performance predated the AFL sides performance at the start of our rebuild. Which is my point!!!!!

Springvale also made the top 4 in 2001!!!

You just gave me another example.

So all we have is richmond but literally all the other Victorian side have followed the same form line.

What happens post finals is another question all together. But the point is here is about the trend before we play finals from our rebuild.

I reckon we will see a spike in the performance at Sandy before our AFL side. That'll be the indicator.

I posted every season to show you that there's no correlation, because there isn't.

Now you are going from saying it's a delayed correlation to the year immediately following.

What about 2015 when Sandringham finished 2nd?
Or 2006? 2004? 2009? 2010? If we are going by the year immediately following as you've just done.

And even if we don't and we say 2-3 years in advance, there's still no correlation. 2002 we finish 11th - 2005 we make a prelim. 2006 we finish 11th - 2009 we make a GF. 2015 we finish 2nd - 2018 we finish bottom four.

I don't think we will see much to be honest. Surely not a spike based on the last 20yrs of history posted. We have no depth. If we are doing well in the VFL it'll be because we have better depth. No depth means we play as many as we can. Great depth means good players are pushed out into the VFL and thus making the VFL side stronger.

 

[Hubnester]

Ok so

2003 Springvale make finals but the saints don't. Then in 2004 we do make finals. So the VFL sides performance predated the AFL sides performance at the start of our rebuild. Which is my point!!!!!

Springvale also made the top 4 in 2001!!!

You just gave me another example.

So all we have is richmond but literally all the other Victorian side have followed the same form line.

What happens post finals is another question all together. But the point is here is about the trend before we play finals from our rebuild.

I reckon we will see a spike in the performance at Sandy before our AFL side. That'll be the indicator.

It looks like you're cherry picking the stats a tad to make your point, I don't think it's the case most of the time.

 

[StCicatriz]

I posted every season to show you that there's no correlation, because there isn't.

Now you are going from saying it's a delayed correlation to the year immediately following.

What about 2015 when Sandringham finished 2nd?
Or 2006? 2004? 2009? 2010? If we are going by the year immediately following as you've just done.

And even if we don't and we say 2-3 years in advance, there's still no correlation. 2002 we finish 11th - 2005 we make a prelim. 2006 we finish 11th - 2009 we make a GF. 2015 we finish 2nd - 2018 we finish bottom four.

Springvale 2001

 

[StCicatriz]

It looks like you're cherry picking the stats a tad to make your point, I don't think it's the case most of the time.

This is the great thing about it. We can test my theory with the saints sides.

I think we will see sandringham/st Kilda VFL side play finals before the AFL side will.

Let's see what happens!

 

[George]

Springvale 2001

You've listed as many examples as I have to state the opposite, so there's no correlation. If there was it would be a consistent theme but it isn't.

 

[StCicatriz]

You've listed as many examples as I have to state the opposite, so there's no correlation. If there was it would be a consistent theme but it isn't.

Sorry George can't agree at all.

But hey let's see what happens with our side moving forward.

 

[George]

Sorry George can't agree at all.

But hey let's see what happens with our side moving forward.

Fair enough. I think the data is fairly obvious but each to their own. We are average and have a lot of players still developing. With little depth we need players to get games through the seniors and that is obviously at the expense of the VFL. If we were a strong club with good depth then we would have better players in the VFL, but as evidenced having better players in the VFL because of good depth doesn't mean we will have a better VFL side. If we have 12 players a week playing Sandy that leaves another 10 spots to VFL standard players. If they are no good we are no good.

 

[StCicatriz]

Fair enough. I think the data is fairly obvious but each to their own. We are average and have a lot of players still developing. With little depth we need players to get games through the seniors and that is obviously at the expense of the VFL. If we were a strong club with good depth then we would have better players in the VFL, but as evidenced having better players in the VFL because of good depth doesn't mean we will have a better VFL side. If we have 12 players a week playing Sandy that leaves another 10 spots to VFL standard players. If they are no good we are no good.

That's part of ensuring you have a good development pathway. You also have to get the VFL players to supplement your AFL players. Which now involves having good relationships with the ammos club's as there's no development side. The game has changed somewhat. The good club's will adapt.

 

[George]

That's part of ensuring you have a good development pathway. You also have to get the VFL players to supplement your AFL players. Which now involves having good relationships with the ammos club's as there's no development side. The game has changed somewhat. The good club's will adapt.

I think we've done really well aligning it since the move back to Moorabbin which is another huge positive of that move. We have strong relationships with the SMJFL through to the Sandringham Dragons in the TAC Cup and now owning every major aspect of the VFL affiliate. We have a pathway running from under 9's through to VFL, all based at RSEA. If we wanted to be a better VFL side right now we would've kept Clark Coffield Parker Wilkie Battle etc etc in the VFL but we are very thin mate. I was looking over the list and there's about 20 players that we can build a side around. The others are either good VFL players and nothing more - guys like Rice, White, Armitage (sadly), or we have a bunch who will be moved on at seasons end. We need at least 30 AFL standard players before we challenge and there's primarily two ways we do that - through trade & draft.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Geelong didn't go through a rebuild though. Look at the sides that went though a genuine rebuild. Which is what we are doing.

Geelong have stayed up the top due to their access to ready made talent. We haven't had that. I wish we did but sadly we don't have a dangerfield wanting to come home.

Geelong's rebuild is still going to happen, they did a good job of maximizing their window.
we stopped in 2011 after we'd sacrificed our future for the now. By mismanaging the salary cap and drafting worse than a schoolkid in september.

Bear in mind ... Nick Riewold was playing great footy in 2017. DalSanto and Goodard, even Fisher fairly recent.
We Let Maguire go. ( he went on to play a lot of games ).
We drafted badly in 04, 05, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13. 14.
Now if we drafted well in those years would we have been better?

If you find good talent in the draft you don't NEED to bottom out.
If you bottomed out for a decade , you'd have 10 good picks, some of them would be real good. BUT its now getting time for them to start retiring.
You need to nail your second picks ,trades, and get a few good later picks and rookies.

Eric McKenzie, Dawson Simpson, Dayne Beams , Nat Fyfe, Scot Lycett, Jimmy Webster, James Stewart, Matt Crouch, Toby McLean,
Available to every team.
When you trade a second rounder for a 37 yo, you are giving up part of the future for the now.
As a good 22 gets older, it happens more and more.
But the Saints managed to totally crash and burn their future. They didn't need to.
Bad draft picks were not easier to draft than good ones. We could have got MaX Gawn ,and David Astbury... we got Nick Winmar and let Luke Ball walk.
Any of those options wouldn't have stopped our 2010 finals campaign, it would have merely dipslayed competence.

Geelong have merely been competent at list management.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

I posted every season to show you that there's no correlation, because there isn't.

Now you are going from saying it's a delayed correlation to the year immediately following.

What about 2015 when Sandringham finished 2nd?
Or 2006? 2004? 2009? 2010? If we are going by the year immediately following as you've just done.

And even if we don't and we say 2-3 years in advance, there's still no correlation. 2002 we finish 11th - 2005 we make a prelim. 2006 we finish 11th - 2009 we make a GF. 2015 we finish 2nd - 2018 we finish bottom four.

I don't think we will see much to be honest. Surely not a spike based on the last 20yrs of history posted. We have no depth. If we are doing well in the VFL it'll be because we have better depth. No depth means we play as many as we can. Great depth means good players are pushed out into the VFL and thus making the VFL side stronger.

We had maybe 5 listed Saints players in Sandringham on the weekend. WTF has that got to do with what our best 22 will be doing next season?

 

[George]

We had maybe 5 listed Saints players in Sandringham on the weekend. WTF has that got to do with what our best 22 will be doing next season?

Proves my point. We have no depth. Out of a list of 45 we need 30 of them AFL standard at least before we can even think of challenging. I can count around 15-20 right now that fall in that category. We need to find more through trade & good drafting.

 

[BrutThough]

2002 Geelong VFL premiers. Play finals in 2004.

2005 box hill finals. Hawthorn play finals in 2007.

2011 werribee finals. Richmond play finals in 2013.

2013 williamstown/footscray. 2015 western bulldogs play finals.

2015 pies VFL finals. 2018 pies make a grand final.

2016 Casey play finals. 2018 Melbourne make finals.

Collingwood VFL currently sit equal on points and only 2% higher than Sandy.
You can skew the ladder and results to suit whatever argument you want.
Doesnt mean there is a direct correlation.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Proves my point. We have no depth. Out of a list of 45 we need 30 of them AFL standard at least before we can even think of challenging. I can count around 15-20 right now that fall in that category. We need to find more through trade & good drafting.

No it doesn't... we are using the depth.

Here is our list. :
Coffield : Starting to show good AFL ability. Played AFL
Carlisle : Certainly AFL quality , Played AFL
Steven : AFL quality , not available for selection.
Gresham: AFL quality, Played AFL
Savage : AFL quality , Played AFL.
Ross : there is debate i'd suggest he's ok , but shouldn't be one of the main men, played AFL
Dunstan: AFL quality , played AFL
Acres : Holds his own at AFL, Played AFL
Hannebery: Certainly AFL quality, not available for selection.
Clark: has shown his ability over the last couple of weeks. Played AFL
Lonie : AFL quality. Played AFL
Geary : AFL quality. Not available for selection.
Billings: AFL quality. Played AFL.
Newnes : Certainly acceptable as a depth player. Played AFL
Roberton : His playing ability is not in doubt. Not available for selection.
Marshall : AFL quality , played AFL.
Long : i'd class him as borderline. - Played AFL
Brown : AFL standard. Played AFL
Kent : AFL standard. Not available for selection.
Battle : AFL standard. Not available for selection.
Bruce : AFL standard , Played AFL
Membrey: AFL standard, Played AFL.
Webster : AFL standard , Not available for selection.
Parker : AFL standard, but out of form. Did not play. AFL Emergency.
Sinclair : AFL standard , Played AFL . ( if not well ).
McKenzie : has been constantly selected to play AFL . Played AFL
Hind : Appears to be acceptable in AFL, though more work to do. Played AFL.
Rookie: Wilkie, not struggling at all in AFL. Played AFL.



Proven Depth.
Longer : Not available for selection.
Austin : Not available for selection.
Armitage: Did not play was he rested?
Phillips : Not available for selection.
White : Ok...they don't seem to think he is AFL standard, or we had enough players in his posi. Played VFL.
McCartin : He never really did much at AFL but played his role. Not available for selection.
Paton : Looks like he will make it , but not quite yet. Played AFL.
Rice : Selected as emergency Didn't play.
Marsh : Played VFL, could almost say AFL quality.
King : Unproven but had been earmarked for selection : Not available for selection.
Rowe : Played VFL.
Rookie : Joyce : Improving all the time. Played VFL.
Rookie : Pierce : Not available for selection.


Unproven:
Bytel : we hope he can provide depth next season. Not available for selection.
Clavarino: Yet to show a lot at any level. Played VFL.
Young : Has played AFL , but didn't achieve much. Played VFL ( in poor conditions for him i'd say).
Rookie: Alabaxis: A long shot.
Rookie: Langlands, improving but is it enough. Named as emergency for AFL , but played VFL.
Rookie: Mayo. Played VFL.

So i make it as around 28 AFL quality players, and furthermore, i don't flinch at all if we bring in the likes of Marsh, Paton, White, Joyce, King or Phillips, some of who may get to that level.

Its far better than the days when Tom Simpkin and James Gwilt were our tall defenders.
When Bo Maister got games.
Brodie Murdoch averaging 8 disposals over 9 games.

s**t we were lucky with injury in 09. Even as it stood, Colm Begley got a game.

Some of the guys are young and inconsistent. But most look like they have something to offer at AFL level.
We are USING our depth.

 

[StCicatriz]

here's a name from left field. david noble.

 

[plugger66]

here's a name from left field. david noble.

Foer What? Not a hope.

 

[George]

No it doesn't... we are using the depth.

Here is our list. :
Coffield : Starting to show good AFL ability. Played AFL
Carlisle : Certainly AFL quality , Played AFL
Steven : AFL quality , not available for selection.
Gresham: AFL quality, Played AFL
Savage : AFL quality , Played AFL.
Ross : there is debate i'd suggest he's ok , but shouldn't be one of the main men, played AFL
Dunstan: AFL quality , played AFL
Acres : Holds his own at AFL, Played AFL
Hannebery: Certainly AFL quality, not available for selection.
Clark: has shown his ability over the last couple of weeks. Played AFL
Lonie : AFL quality. Played AFL
Geary : AFL quality. Not available for selection.
Billings: AFL quality. Played AFL.
Newnes : Certainly acceptable as a depth player. Played AFL
Roberton : His playing ability is not in doubt. Not available for selection.
Marshall : AFL quality , played AFL.
Long : i'd class him as borderline. - Played AFL
Brown : AFL standard. Played AFL
Kent : AFL standard. Not available for selection.
Battle : AFL standard. Not available for selection.
Bruce : AFL standard , Played AFL
Membrey: AFL standard, Played AFL.
Webster : AFL standard , Not available for selection.
Parker : AFL standard, but out of form. Did not play. AFL Emergency.
Sinclair : AFL standard , Played AFL . ( if not well ).
McKenzie : has been constantly selected to play AFL . Played AFL
Hind : Appears to be acceptable in AFL, though more work to do. Played AFL.
Rookie: Wilkie, not struggling at all in AFL. Played AFL.



Proven Depth.
Longer : Not available for selection.
Austin : Not available for selection.
Armitage: Did not play was he rested?
Phillips : Not available for selection.
White : Ok...they don't seem to think he is AFL standard, or we had enough players in his posi. Played VFL.
McCartin : He never really did much at AFL but played his role. Not available for selection.
Paton : Looks like he will make it , but not quite yet. Played AFL.
Rice : Selected as emergency Didn't play.
Marsh : Played VFL, could almost say AFL quality.
King : Unproven but had been earmarked for selection : Not available for selection.
Rowe : Played VFL.
Rookie : Joyce : Improving all the time. Played VFL.
Rookie : Pierce : Not available for selection.


Unproven:
Bytel : we hope he can provide depth next season. Not available for selection.
Clavarino: Yet to show a lot at any level. Played VFL.
Young : Has played AFL , but didn't achieve much. Played VFL ( in poor conditions for him i'd say).
Rookie: Alabaxis: A long shot.
Rookie: Langlands, improving but is it enough. Named as emergency for AFL , but played VFL.
Rookie: Mayo. Played VFL.

So i make it as around 28 AFL quality players, and furthermore, i don't flinch at all if we bring in the likes of Marsh, Paton, White, Joyce, King or Phillips, some of who may get to that level.

Its far better than the days when Tom Simpkin and James Gwilt were our tall defenders.
When Bo Maister got games.
Brodie Murdoch averaging 8 disposals over 9 games.

s**t we were lucky with injury in 09. Even as it stood, Colm Begley got a game.

Some of the guys are young and inconsistent. But most look like they have something to offer at AFL level.
We are USING our depth.

Got absolutely no idea what you're even trying to argue here. Using our depth doesn't mean we have much of it. You think we'd be bottom four if we had good depth? No. We wouldn't.

 

[Drake Huggins]

Proves my point. We have no depth. Out of a list of 45 we need 30 of them AFL standard at least before we can even think of challenging. I can count around 15-20 right now that fall in that category. We need to find more through trade & good drafting.

Having the injury list we've had all year, I'm not surprised Sandy is struggling. As much as our injuries have hurt the seniors' performance this year, the knock on effect has been devastating for the Zebs.

Let's see how they go when the seniors are close to full strength. Add all the injured back into the two sides and both would be challenging for the eight.

 

[Hawkboy62]

here's a name from left field. david noble.

He's general manager of football at the Lions and hasn't coached for over 15 years. Why would he move now? Fagan is turning out to be an inspired choice and was plucked from a similar GMF position, but he was the wise old head to Clarko in the threepeat years.

Not sure about Brad and the success under Shaw casts doubt on his ability to motivate a list. Ratten could be a fairly safe choice with some new assistants, if you can get the right ones. Port have gone backwards since Voss arrived, and personally don't rate Lyon. At least Richo can coach you to wins against the Hawks!

With Teague, Shaw and Worsfold going okay there won't be the mad scramble for the available coaches which seemed likely.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Got absolutely no idea what you're even trying to argue here. Using our depth doesn't mean we have much of it. You think we'd be bottom four if we had good depth? No. We wouldn't.

With all those players out we still gave Geelong a run for their money.
Of course we don't keep depth that is better than our best 22, makes no sense at all. Our depth is bloody good i say.
If we had 15 of our playing group injured in 09 or 10 we'd have been screwed.

 

[George]

With all those players out we still gave Geelong a run for their money.
Of course we don't keep depth that is better than our best 22, makes no sense at all. Our depth is bloody good i say.
If we had 15 of our playing group injured in 09 or 10 we'd have been screwed.

Why are we bottom four if we have good depth?

So you've based your opinion on us over one game. Yes we played well. How about looking at it from a much bigger sample size. 4 wins last year and 6 this year. Two straight seasons of bottom four finishes doesn't scream good depth to me at all. In fact it's the complete opposite.

We have about 20 players that we can rely on. We need 30 at least before we start challenging.