Why do interstate sides give away so many free kicks come Grand Final day?

[juss]

Well teams with the home crowd advantage do typically get the rub of the green from the umpires.

Look at West Coasts record in Perth.

Unfortunately umpires are human and there isn't much we can do about it.

West Coast in Perth is a unique situation, it far exceeds any other home free kick differential. I dont have the answer why, but it does.

The GF crowd is a lot more corporate neutral than any other finals crowd. You only need to look at the PF Richmond vs GWS, and the GF Richmond vs GWS. Vastly different crowd breakdowns.

I'm not saying their isn't a crowd bias, but it's far less than other finals.

Do favourites generally get more FKs that underdogs? Are Victorian teams generally favourites against interstate sides?

 

[Simon_Nesbit]

The better team generally wins more free kicks. Th period you're looking at features one of the GOAT teams in Hawthorn, and another very dominant team in Richmond. It's not surprising that in a period where some great Vic teams have won most of the flags they also have won free kick counts.

Yep, umpiring clearly helped Hawks in their threepeat.

2013 + 1
2014 = 0
2015 + 1

Compared to the run they usually receive, more balanced umpiring was probably worth at least a goal or two.

 

[RichLeMonde]

Yep, umpiring clearly helped Hawks in their threepeat.

2013 + 1
2014 = 0
2015 + 1

Compared to the run they usually receive, more balanced umpiring was probably worth at least a goal or two.

I think you should acknowledge that in 2013 and 2015 you only won because of the free kick differential generated by #VICBIAS.

 

[kozi]

No interstate team in the grand final.

Problem solved.

 

[Big Crow]

Just another symptom of a completely cooked league. The priorities of AFL House aren’t rocket science.

 

[Darren Moore]

The only GFs where the umpiring could well have changed the result are: WC v Collingwood (2018) - I'll defer to Leigh Matthews and agree that the non-free kick for the illegal block cost the Pies the game, and maybe the Doggies v Swan (2016). So in terms of making an actual difference, it's 1-1 for Vics and interstaters.

And Richmond fans haven't complained about our free kick differential the last 4 years - we just bring it up when oppo fans sook about us getting kissed on the dick by umps.

Anyway enjoy your week boys

But the interstate side has failed to win the free kick count 11 times in a row going back nearly two decades now.

That's not coincidental.

And don't forget the the best umpires are selected to officiate the Grand Final.

 

[doppleganger]

The past 11 Grand Finals between a Victorian and interstate side, the Victorian side has never lost the free kick count. You have to go back to 2001 for the last time a Victorian side had less free kicks in a Grand Final than their interstate opposition.

So why does this happen? It's more than a coincidence because it's happened over the course of 11 consecutive Grand Finals in a nearly two decade period. It's in fact a clear trend.

Do Victorian sides play a more disciplined brand of football? I don't know how else to explain it.

	VIC	Non-VIC
2019​	20​	13​
2018​	17​	13​
2017​	24​	19​
2016​	20​	8​
2015​	14​	13​
2014​	18​	18​
2013​	15​	14​
2012​	21​	10​
2007​	28​	25​
2003​	18​	13​
2002​	24​	16​
	219​	162​

This is a massive differential of 57 extra free kicks to Victorian sides over 11 Grand Finals.

In a game of fine margins or game of inches as they like to say, an enormous 57 extra free kicks is an almost impossible disadvantage to overcome. How many of those free kicks have resulted in goals, how many of them have destroyed momentum over the years?

Why have you only chosen a select sample of the data?What happens when you include ALL vic v non-vic GFs?

I think the crowd is biggest factor in any home advantage, thus why the GF isn’t actually an MCG tenant issue but a Vic issue.

Although raw numbers
alone don’t really tell you much.

Example 2016.

The Dogs in 2016, they won free kicks in every final they played (and they were the ‘away’ team in three of them!), ended up 79-48 in their 4 finals.

The Swans in 2016, they lost free kicks in every finals they played (and they were the ‘home’ team in two of them!), ending up 59-82 in their 4 finals.

So yeah in isolation the 2016 free kick count looks horrendous, but what did the actual playing styles of the two teams have to do with it? Dogs getting frees in Perth and Sydney too, whilst the Swans couldn’t buy a free at home either.

 

[flylikeaneagle]

So why does this happen? It's more than a coincidence because it's happened over the course of 11 consecutive Grand Finals in a nearly two decade period. It's in fact a clear trend.

Ever seen 11 reds in a row on roulette at Crown Casino?

 

[Angus Young]

Besides 2016 The Grand Finals have been well umpired.

 

[JackOutback]

Will there be an inquiry into this discrepancy?

 

[Big Crow]

2016 Grand Final was the biggest stitch up of all time and genuinely destroyed my confidence in the league.

 

[Power Raid]

Umpires react to crowds

It's normal to see what the crowd points out, evidenced by the eagles at home