Science/Environment Wuhan Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Pandemic Declared - Part 2

[Chief]

This is part 2 of this thread.

PART 3 IS HERE --- >

Science/Environment - Wuhan Coronavirus (COVID-19) - HCQ doesn't work - Part 3

This is part 3 of this thread. Part 2 is here: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/wuhan-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic-declared-part-2.1238728/ --------------- It looks like it began in wild animals being sold for human consumption, and once again the consequences of this stupidity is...

www.bigfooty.com

Go there for your Pangolin-rich experience /\

 

[parsons nose]

Ah yes. This old chestnut.

Where do you reckon the money came from to bail out the banks who were insolvent in 2008. It was literally stroked into existence on a computer screen. You think hard working taxpayers bailed out the fat cats at Goldman Sachs and the like?

Sniper on the roof....hyperinflation....hit the deck.

Yep, to the tune of 1.25 trillion dollars, calculated off the back of an envelope. The result? Zero inflation. The whole thing is a giant smokescreen and has little to do with economics and everything to do with social science.

 

[Seeds]

Ah yes. This old chestnut.

Where do you reckon the money came from to bail out the banks who were insolvent in 2008. It was literally stroked into existence on a computer screen. You think hard working taxpayers bailed out the fat cats at Goldman Sachs and the like?

Sniper on the roof....hyperinflation....hit the deck.

You are partially right.

The velocity of money and the money supply to money base ratio fell during the gfc so the expansion of the money base by the fed helped offset this resulting in no high inflation despite significant money printing.

This did however reallocate the value of everyones wealth unjustly though as the money printed benefits those it goes to first at the expense of others.

As the economy recovered and central banks were slow to unwind their QE we have also seen massive inflation in asset prices. This is a result of the money printing. Its unjustly made people who had assets much wealthier and people who did not have assets much poorer.

Now if you print money during the good times and go full helicopter money printing then inflation bubble will skyrocket. It will probably start with just assets again but eventually the public will get sick of it. Labour markets will demand reform and increase their power and this will kick start wage cost spirals.

 

[Deliverance]

I disagree.

We send our kids to school assuming that statistically x number of children will be bullied with long lasting psychological effects, others will be exposed to allergens that may kill them, and some will be sexually, verbally or physically assaulted by teachers and/or other students.

Hazards and associated risks are part of life, and wrapping our children in cotton wool isn't the solution.

My personal opinion is that Victorian schools should be opened up to all students. The health risks are insignificant when compared to the educational and social benefits.

Whenever I hear about risk, my mind automatically goes here.

 

[Seeds]

Yep, to the tune of 1.25 trillion dollars, calculated off the back of an envelope. The result? Zero inflation. The whole thing is a giant smokescreen and has little to do with economics and everything to do with social science.

Now that would be funny. Lets have a chat to a social scientist about banking and monetary economics.

 

[Seeds]

You don't seriously believe China's numbers do you? They're sweeping it under the carpet and have done since the outbreak began. It doesn't seem feasible at all that Qatar (a country with a population just more than Brisbane) has more cases than the world's most populated country.

their stats are never accurate. But they are controlling the outbreak even if not as well as their stats imply. Their border restrictions are just so much stronger then everyone elses.

 

[parsons nose]

Now that would be funny. Lets have a chat to a social scientist about banking and monetary economics.

Like I said, back of an envelope

 

[parsons nose]

It’s worth noting that we were heading towards a post growth world economy prior to the pandemic albeit slowly. This crisis has provided an opportunity to move away from an economic model that will ultimately be proved to be unsustainable anyway.

 

[Mofra]

You are partially right.

The velocity of money and the money supply to money base ratio fell during the gfc so the expansion of the money base by the fed helped offset this resulting in no high inflation despite significant money printing.

This did however reallocate the value of everyones wealth unjustly though as the money printed benefits those it goes to first at the expense of others.

As the economy recovered and central banks were slow to unwind their QE we have also seen massive inflation in asset prices. This is a result of the money printing. Its unjustly made people who had assets much wealthier and people who did not have assets much poorer.

Now if you print money during the good times and go full helicopter money printing then inflation bubble will skyrocket. It will probably start with just assets again but eventually the public will get sick of it. Labour markets will demand reform and increase their power and this will kick start wage cost spirals.

The textbook definition is: Inflation spikes when monetary supply is in excess of productive capacity.
We are now in a period of prolonged low inflation that has no end in sight, with countries actively trying to debase their currency to save what's left of their export markets. QE have been run in cycles in the US virtually continuously since the GFC, so clearly central banks are not worried about the inflation genie.

We're in a very strange time.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

They had nothing until they locked down Wuhan. The rest of China should have been riddled with it by then.

they didnt just lock down Wuhan, most of china had pretty much stage 3 or 4 restrictions

my family were in one of the least effected provinces, and they were locked down

 

[mcnulty]

A number of countries have worked that out and hence given up on lockdowns.

California now joining other American States in rolling back reopening. Expect more to follow. Mugged by reality. Victoria could wait until they’re exponentially hitting 1,000 plus a day, putting the health system under increasing stress increasing the chance of outbreaks crossing the borders.

Andrews is doing the right thing. In hindsight he should’ve done it a week sooner.

 

[Anja_Nees]

California now joining other American States in rolling back reopening. Expect more to follow. Mugged by reality. Victoria could wait until they’re exponentially hitting 1,000 plus a day, putting the health system under increasing stress increasing the chance of outbreaks crossing the borders.

Andrews is doing the right thing. In hindsight he should’ve done it a week sooner.

It seemed pretty obvious where we were heading. Suspect they have been deliberately applying restrictions a little slowly to avoid shocking the population and the inevitable meltdown that follows.

 

[CD Xbow]

Looks to me Mister M that it is the inner city snobs that can't be trusted, hmmm which council district is sitting top of the table for infections.

I'm pretty sure the Melbourne CBD figures includes those have been quarantined in hotels and tested positive, the so called 'hot hotels', so the positive rate is artificially high.

Kings College just published a study https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.09.20148429v1.full.pdf looking at antibody response over time. Blood tests taken from more than 90 patients and healthcare workers during the study period revealed that while 60% of people were able to mount a ‘potent’ antibody response to the virus, only 17% retained the same potency three months later. This is similar to the transient immunity seen with the Coronavirus that normally circulates in the community and causes cold symptoms. It's also going to be an issue for vaccines.

 

[The Passenger]

This crisis has provided an opportunity to move away from an economic model that will ultimately be proved to be unsustainable anyway.

If the global economy can't sustain a few months of a slowdown in spending then it raises the question whether that particular economic system was designed correctly in the first place.

The obvious next question is what is a better economic model? The answer that is quite possibly there isn't one and that is a troubling thought indeed.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

they didnt just lock down Wuhan, most of china had pretty much stage 3 or 4 restrictions

my family were in one of the least effected provinces, and they were locked down

AFTER they locked down Wuhan.
What happened before then?

 

[Ned_Flanders]

AFTER they locked down Wuhan.
What happened before then?

pretty much same time (we are talking days, not weeks)

we were actually worried, because the numbers in my wifes province were very low, yet they were all being locked down (so we were wondering if more cases were about to hit)

 

[Baltimore Jack]

Queensland have banned visitors from a couple of Sydney Suburbs

 

[Baltimore Jack]

270 in Vic today

 

[yebiga]

Entertaining and moving - ig you have the time

 

[Ghost Patrol]

Entertaining and moving - ig you have the time

 

[iBeng]

Covid19 doesnt...doesnt stand a chance...

 

[yebiga]

Deep down, everyone knows this is totally overblown. The devil knocked on our door and we invited him inside.

I am reminded of Eliot's - Hollow Men

I

We are the hollow men
We are the stuffed men
Leaning together
Headpiece filled with straw. Alas!
Our dried voices, when
We whisper together
Are quiet and meaningless
As wind in dry grass
Or rats' feet over broken glass
In our dry cellar

Shape without form, shade without colour,
Paralysed force, gesture without motion;

Those who have crossed
With direct eyes, to death's other Kingdom
Remember us-if at all-not as lost
Violent souls, but only
As the hollow men
The stuffed men.


II

Eyes I dare not meet in dreams
In death's dream kingdom
These do not appear:
There, the eyes are
Sunlight on a broken column
There, is a tree swinging
And voices are
In the wind's singing
More distant and more solemn
Than a fading star.

Let me be no nearer
In death's dream kingdom
Let me also wear
Such deliberate disguises
Rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves
In a field
Behaving as the wind behaves
No nearer-

Not that final meeting
In the twilight kingdom


III

This is the dead land
This is cactus land
Here the stone images
Are raised, here they receive
The supplication of a dead man's hand
Under the twinkle of a fading star.

Is it like this
In death's other kingdom
Waking alone
At the hour when we are
Trembling with tenderness
Lips that would kiss
Form prayers to broken stone.


IV

The eyes are not here
There are no eyes here
In this valley of dying stars
In this hollow valley
This broken jaw of our lost kingdoms

In this last of meeting places
We grope together
And avoid speech
Gathered on this beach of the tumid river

Sightless, unless
The eyes reappear
As the perpetual star
Multifoliate rose
Of death's twilight kingdom
The hope only
Of empty men.


V

Here we go round the prickly pear
Prickly pear prickly pear
Here we go round the prickly pear
At five o'clock in the morning.

Between the idea
And the reality
Between the motion
And the act
Falls the Shadow
For Thine is the Kingdom

Between the conception
And the creation
Between the emotion
And the response
Falls the Shadow
Life is very long

Between the desire
And the spasm
Between the potency
And the existence
Between the essence
And the descent
Falls the Shadow
For Thine is the Kingdom

For Thine is
Life is
For Thine is the

This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
Not with a bang but a whimper.

 

[PP34]

If the global economy can't sustain a few months of a slowdown in spending then it raises the question whether that particular economic system was designed correctly in the first place.

The obvious next question is what is a better economic model? The answer that is quite possibly there isn't one and that is a troubling thought indeed.

That’s what I’ve been thinking since March. The system is terribly suited to dealing with a pandemic. Instead of being able to survive a few months being self sufficient or something like that, a shutdown of things causes so many giant problems.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

pretty much same time (we are talking days, not weeks)

we were actually worried, because the numbers in my wifes province were very low, yet they were all being locked down (so we were wondering if more cases were about to hit)

Yet we are lead to believe the virus was floating round a long time before they locked down Wuhan.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

If the global economy can't sustain a few months of a slowdown in spending then it raises the question whether that particular economic system was designed correctly in the first place.

The obvious next question is what is a better economic model? The answer that is quite possibly there isn't one and that is a troubling thought indeed.

Designed?

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Yet we are lead to believe the virus was floating round a long time before they locked down Wuhan.

in late 2019 and early jan, there was still the belief this was just minor and isolated. hospital numbers in wuhan were not insane, and people hadn't figured out the 14 day asymptomatic infection period yet.

leading into chinese new year, this was changing. cases were bobbing up outside wuhan, and wuhan was beginning to crank up.

when the wall went up shutting down wuhan, my wife's city was shut down shortly after (not full wuhan lockdown, but akin to our stage 4)