List Mgmt. 2015 general list discussion and speculation - PLEASE START NEW THREAD ON BREAKING NEWS

[manboob]

It seems our ruck, and possibly 2014 final hopes, now rest almost solely on HMac, given Simpson isn't available for the rest of the year apparently.

A ruckman was a high priority for us in the draft / trade, but I reckon its just become the highest priority.

I'd love to have a dirty crack at Luenberger.

 

[OzeSparky]

Nathan Vardy and some yet to be determined 18 year old.

Vardy has proved one thing
he is injury prone.
Plus the club has stated they want him to play CHF not Ruck
We need a AFL ready ruckman plus a developing 18 yr old

 

[Farmer2Goggin]

While Duncan has been a lot better this year with his contested work, he used to play so outside that he was almost in orbit. In his second year( the same stage Toumpas is) he averaged 17 touches a game, 5 contested. I don't know how further outside a player can be, besides Issac Smith.

Duncan is the protype inside / outside mid IMHO - he has good pace to break away and uses it so well.
The big change this season is his inside game , he is as hard as a Cats head these days - just ask Andrew Swallow.
When you think Mitch has gone missing check who's in the pack dishing it out , fair chance it's him.
Worked his arse off in the preseason and it's defenitely showing

 

[Cataholic]

Vardy has proved one thing
he is injury prone.
Plus the club has stated they want him to play CHF not Ruck
We need a AFL ready ruckman plus a developing 18 yr old

The weight of expectation on Vardy is incredible.

He's got his work cut out.

 

[OzeSparky]

The weight of expectation on Vardy is incredible.

He's got his work cut out.

Sure has.

 

[Cataholic]

I'd love to have a dirty crack at Luenberger.

Wouldn't be adverse to that.

Change of culture and who knows?

 

[Cataholic]

Sure has.

Yeah.

The poor guy has his hands full overcoming injury and convincing himself that his body has the durability to make it, let alone convince anyone else.

Then he's got to contend with the widespread expectation that he'll be a Natanui in the ruck, and a Peter Hudson in the forward line.

 

[Cataholic]

especially when he won't be playing in the ruck next year.

One would hope not.

 

[vinum coupe]

I'd love to have a dirty crack at Luenberger.

Theres been media suggestion that the Lions should have a hard look at trading him out.

 

[OzeSparky]

Theres been media suggestion that the Lions should have a hard look at trading him out.

T Hunt plus?

 

[vinum coupe]

T Hunt plus?

plus our first pick. minimum.

 

[catempire]

Vardy has proved one thing
he is injury prone.
Plus the club has stated they want him to play CHF not Ruck
We need a AFL ready ruckman plus a developing 18 yr old

We have two AFL ready ruckman plus Blicavs plus Vardy. We won't be brining in another AFL-ready ruckman. It will be an 18 year old or perhaps a VFL understudy like Derrickx (sp?).

 

[FredLeDeux]

Vardy has proved one thing
he is injury prone.
Plus the club has stated they want him to play CHF not Ruck
We need a AFL ready ruckman plus a developing 18 yr old

especially when he won't be playing in the ruck next year.

One would hope not.

Earlier this season whenever his name cam,e up, Scott regularly and repeatedly referred to him as a "ruckman" and as a "ruckman-forward".

 

[catempire]

Earlier this season whenever his name cam,e up, Scott regularly and repeatedly referred to him as a "ruckman" and as a "ruckman-forward".

Which, if one takes the time to watch him play, he clearly is.

 

[Cataholic]

Earlier this season whenever his name cam,e up, Scott regularly and repeatedly referred to him as a "ruckman" and as a "ruckman-forward".

He has indeed inferred that, but didn't the club / doctors also suggest early days that the type / severity of his hip injury might preclude him from ruck duties, if not the game altogether?

Really hoping he gets the choice to play at CHF, and not 'forced' into the ruck because our ruck stocks are depleted.

 

[David the Cat]

Vardy injury prone…so lets bring in Luenberger? huh?

 

[Bobby_]

I'd love to have a dirty crack at Luenberger.

what about Dean Cox for a year until Wells finds something of interest?

There's a few articles linking him to teams that likely feature in finals 2015, Cox, even at the ripe old age of 33 could be an incredible weapon in a finals series.
Play him for only 12-15 games during the H&A so it could manage the body etc.

 

[manboob]

Vardy injury prone…so lets bring in Luenberger? huh?

I don't see Vardy as a viable ruck option.

 

[David the Cat]

Top performance isn't ensured by having big Cox in your team……

Maybe I should rephrase that…..

 

[catempire]

not when we had fit ruck stocks in the NAB challenge this year. He spent the entire game inside forward 50.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sampling_bias

 

[Lana]

On this.... I have mentioned it before that I feel we are short an early pick or two. The "sustainable model" term is a nice way of putting it , we have never had to setup our list just using late picks , and we will not this time either but last time we had more than we currently had. And we had FS that became like single figure picks.

We have Caddy due to us being able to trade an Ablett pick but we really do not have many early picks , and I do wonder if our development can over come so much of a handicap.

The thing is that we have brought in a lot of picks in the top forty in the last 5 trade weeks, the only time we traded an early pick out was getting McIntosh, this has given Well a lot more opportunities then he would have otherwise. I my mind it's a large reason that we are still up. Another is the other is the durability and consistency of our older players. But what really differentiates our team from St Kilda, the Bulldogs and now Collingwood is that almost all of our second tier players stepped up when our best players' performance started dropping.

 

[Chappycats]

How about Jonathan Giles from GWS. He is on the outer with the big sausage eater the obvious No.1, he has put in a couple of good seasons before this year and is only 26. Don't think he would cost much, maybe a 2nd or 3rd rounder.

 

[vinum coupe]

what about Dean Cox for a year until Wells finds something of interest?

There's a few articles linking him to teams that likely feature in finals 2015, Cox, even at the ripe old age of 33 could be an incredible weapon in a finals series.
Play him for only 12-15 games during the H&A so it could manage the body etc.

PASS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Teriyakicat]

That's probably true to some extent, as people will easily identify the obviously better players from the pack, but i don't think picks 1-5 or 6-10 are vastly different in terms of current or future ability. The point I was trying to make is that the value of early picks is there if you have the right structures at your disposal to take advantage of the opportunity, since the number a player is drafted at is a speculative value judgment based on the information at hand when the kid is 17/18.

Early picks give a club the best opportunity to select the cream of the crop. Draft position isn't a guarantee of "making it" but more really good players, in my mind, will have come from the top 20 or 30 over the years (that could be some homework for me to do to confirm). There will always be outliers and there will also be players inside the top 30 that don't make it but it sounds about right.

While Wells & Co. should be commended for their ability to find value with later picks I have voiced my thoughts that having to use more later picks probably isn't a sustainable model for success over time.

Geelong has defied conventional wisdom by having a long period at the top (remove the abnormality of 2006 and it dates back to 2004 and is still going) but I do think we have come back to the pack now when compared to '07-'11.

Part of that success means we don't have the same accessibility to top end talent over time. That will (should) see us slip down the ladder.

That is how it is designed after all.

With recruiting becoming more and more critical to clubs there is a lot more work being put in meaning it is trickier to find those "hidden gems" for yourself.

The other thing to keep in mind about having early draft picks; it gives a club a wider pool to choose from.

As Turbs mentioned regarding Wines & Toumpas, sometimes too many choices can play a bit of havoc and make a club look a bit foolish (Watts over Naitanui is another that comes to mind when discussing the Dees) but that is where the recruiters earn their crust and a club's development kicks in.

Given a choice, I think most recruiters and clubs would like to have their first pick inside the top 10 (or 20).

While there may not be much difference between 1-5 and 6-10 (or even 11-20) there is a difference between them and a kid picked at 50.

Consider last year - the top 10 was Boyd, Kelly, Billings, Bontempelli, Kolodjashnij, Scharenberg, Aish, McDonald, Salem and Freeman.

40-50 was Kennedy-Harris, Kolodashnij, Fuller, Barrass, Aliir, Harvey, Knight, Brown, Main and Gordon (with a pass from GWS).

I know which bucket I'd prefer to pick from (despite there being some decent players in that 40-50 range and despite the fact not all of those top tenners may work out).

The successes are more likely from the early picks.

In 2012 the top 10 was Whitfield, O'Rourke, Plowman, Toumpas, Stringer, Macrae, Wines, Mayes, Vlastuin and Daniher (a F/S who was tipped to be top 5).

40-50 was Murdoch (Brodie), Wood, McDonough, Saunders, Marsh, Colledge, Membery, Wilkins, Kent, Hunter (F/S) and Prudden.

In '11 names like Patton, Winguard, Tyson, Coniglio, Buntine and Longer can be found in the top 10 while the best names I can come up with between 40 and 50 is Jordan Murdoch and Sam Rowe.

The same trend appears in 2010 (although Luke Parker at 40 seems incredible now) with the top 10 of the draft looking to have the guys most likely.

Even in 2009 with Christensen, Stratton and Vardy aiding the 40-50 brigade the better bets appear early (injury hurting Trengove, Morabito and Rohan).

Not an exact science but the misses at the top end appear to be getting fewer and fewer in recent times.

Sorry for the longwinded ramble but it is a topic I enjoy discussing.

Perhaps I should have just wrote "+1" after the quote.

I think that you've got a very good point, there, Moneypenny- and it probably goes hand in hand with The Pivotonian 's comment above, which mentions names like Jordan Murdoch, Christensen, Vardy, Luke Parker, etc., who were all late picks. Even #77 from the 2012 draft is going OK.

Are the successful clubs, with their structures and experienced GOOD players, turning picks in the 40s and 50s into players who could easily have been picked up in the 20-30 quality range, if we were drafting them now? While the clubs that are not as well managed or have little success on the field, are turning their first round picks into players who probably wouldn't be picked up until maybe the second or third round, if the draft was held now. (If that is making sense?) I know there have been several posters here who've said teams like Melbourne are just wrecking their first round picks.

Obviously there are the 'hidden gems' that get picked late but their hidden talents can't be the only reason for Wells' sustained success in unearthing those late-picked players. There's got to be more to it.

 

[TheJimmyCartel]

Nathan Vardy and some yet to be determined 18 year old.

Gorringe? Nicholls? Clarke? The GC have too many...