List Mgmt. 2015 general list discussion and speculation - PLEASE START NEW THREAD ON BREAKING NEWS

[BlightysCats]

I'd say that Brown played average, at best. And that's by his standards.

Disagree. Definitely the best and biggest game he'd played for Geelong.

 

[Hello Kitty]

VFL is what I was looking at, Im not adverse to the idea of Duncan back id those with the smarts think we have some young mids that can do the role.
I also like the idea of Duncan back because of his foot skills , but I'm not sure about his defensive skills.

Duncan might need to learn quickly + if he does, it's another string to his bow - versatility + all.

 

[Hello Kitty]

Bang on the money.

Smedts has shown plenty of promise as a crumbing forward. He's quick, evasive and knows his way around goals. In 2013 he kicked 10 goals in his first seven games, including against reasonable teams like Hawthorn, Sydney and Essendon (who were top of the ladder when we played them in round 7).

With Bews and Thurlow in the wings, I don't see why we need another small defender. But we are crying out for a small forward. Christensen is gone and played more midfield anyway, Motlop is too valuable to keep inside forward 50m all game, McCarthy is perennially injured and somebody like Burbury who got opportunities last year (5 games for 1 goal - a far cry from what Billie offered the year prior) is no longer on our list.

Smedts has had some significant injuries and is has just completed his first full pre-season. Anybody who hasn't seen glimpses of his talent - like his work to set up Hawkins' second last goal in the 2013 Hawks clash, or his great goal on the run v Essendon in 2013 - isn't looking hard enough.

If we persist with him as a defender I imagine he'll struggle to hold down a senior spot and posters here will call for his head at the end of 2015. If we play him where we're desperately crying out for someone, and where he's shown potential - up forward - I for one back him to be one of our biggest improvers this season.

Is Smedts being played in the backline to give him experience to improve his defensive skills for a future forward position? It's so difficult to understand what the coaches are doing when we are desperate for a small forward + Smedts is playing in defence.

 

[Hello Kitty]

Bang on the money.

Smedts has shown plenty of promise as a crumbing forward. He's quick, evasive and knows his way around goals. In 2013 he kicked 10 goals in his first seven games, including against reasonable teams like Hawthorn, Sydney and Essendon (who were top of the ladder when we played them in round 7).

With Bews and Thurlow in the wings, I don't see why we need another small defender. But we are crying out for a small forward. Christensen is gone and played more midfield anyway, Motlop is too valuable to keep inside forward 50m all game, McCarthy is perennially injured and somebody like Burbury who got opportunities last year (5 games for 1 goal - a far cry from what Billie offered the year prior) is no longer on our list.

Smedts has had some significant injuries and is has just completed his first full pre-season. Anybody who hasn't seen glimpses of his talent - like his work to set up Hawkins' second last goal in the 2013 Hawks clash, or his great goal on the run v Essendon in 2013 - isn't looking hard enough.

If we persist with him as a defender I imagine he'll struggle to hold down a senior spot and posters here will call for his head at the end of 2015. If we play him where we're desperately crying out for someone, and where he's shown potential - up forward - I for one back him to be one of our biggest improvers this season.

Wish I could like your post twice, fpm.

It's a cracker of a post Teri, so let's give it a bump + would you tell me your favourite parts of fpm's post?
This is the bit that struck me -

"I don't see why we need another small defender. But we are crying out for a small forward."

 

[BlightysCats]

I rec

It's a cracker of a post Teri, so let's give it a bump + would you tell me your favourite parts of fpm's post?
This is the bit that struck me -

"I don't see why we need another small defender. But we are crying out for a small forward."

I reckon we'll be giving Gregson a go there at some point but we have Nakia, Stokes (resting forward), Motlop, Gore, and Menzel hopefully for the second half of the season.

 

[Hello Kitty]

I rec

I reckon we'll be giving Gregson a go there at some point but we have Nakia, Stokes (resting forward), Motlop, Gore, and Menzel hopefully for the second half of the season.

So no forward position for Smedts?

Smedts has shown plenty of promise as a crumbing forward. He's quick, evasive and knows his way around goals. In 2013 he kicked 10 goals in his first seven games, including against reasonable teams like Hawthorn, Sydney and Essendon (who were top of the ladder when we played them in round 7).


If we persist with him as a defender I imagine he'll struggle to hold down a senior spot and posters here will call for his head at the end of 2015. If we play him where we're desperately crying out for someone, and where he's shown potential - up forward - I for one back him to be one of our biggest improvers this season.

It fills me with dread to envisage Smedts languishing in defence - you know what fpm says is right - his head will be called for if he doesn't flourish.

 

[Teriyakicat]

It's a cracker of a post Teri, so let's give it a bump + would you tell me your favourite parts of fpm's post?
This is the bit that struck me -

"I don't see why we need another small defender. But we are crying out for a small forward."

Well, since you probably stole my favourite line, I'll settle for "He's quick, evasive and knows his way around goals".
Sometimes there's a post that isn't written by you but you feel that maybe you just did write it in your sleep or something- or that someone has ripped the words out of your brain. fpm84's post was just like that.

 

[TheJimmyCartel]

Yep, people remember the bad ones. I've posted it before but he was near the top, maybe even top, of disposal efficiency in 2014 for us.

*cue the stats sceptics chiming in*

Haha I say nothing! Actually, I lie Legitimate question to the below stats, disposal efficiency in particular...

Last year
57 Disposals (61 possessions)
6 Clangers
5 free kicks against
1 direct turnover by poor disposal or fumble . or 1.6% of his possessions.
80.7% disposal efficiency, third in the team.

Maths checks out, Smedts is one of our safest players to give the ball to .

If a player disposes of the ball hitting a team-mate but said team-mate is immediately tackled (because it was hospital pass), is it considered an effective disposal because he hit the target, a clanger because it was a suicide ball or something else?

I swear to Gary Snr I'm not trying to target Billie, I like him and agree he's harshly criticised. I would like to see a stat on 'hospital balls' though if they are considered an effective disposal. Just throwing it out there!

 

[vinum coupe]

Haha I say nothing! Actually, I lie Legitimate question to the below stats, disposal efficiency in particular...



If a player disposes of the ball hitting a team-mate but said team-mate is immediately tackled (because it was hospital pass), is it considered an effective disposal because he hit the target, a clanger because it was a suicide ball or something else?

I swear to Gary Snr I'm not trying to target Billie, I like him and agree he's harshly criticised. I would like to see a stat on 'hospital balls' though if they are considered an effective disposal. Just throwing it out there!

Well effective disposal means the ball wasn't turned over.
What we need is metres gained with disposal% and contested ball.

Surely someone here can do it

A guy that gets given the ball on the wing, runs 30, and hits a target is not as valuable as a clearance player who gets the ball, runs 20, and hits a target.

 

[Ricky Vaughn]

It doesn't. But I have to say, it doesn't seem like we apply the same scrutiny to anyone else about their disposal. It seems more to me like people are looking for flaws in Smedts' game above all else. We don't analyse the disposal efficiencies of Guthrie or Caddy or Horlin-Smith to the same degree, and I'm sure they've all dished out a hospital handpass on occasion (the last two certainly have). It's more like finding the most tenuous connection to an already existing bias.

It's a fair point, but try and go the other way with Smedts. Look for the positives.
They basically don't exist. He's either doing something average (uncontested switch or uncontested kick to a short target) or he's doing something poor (turnover under pressure, losing a one on one, trying to take the play on and getting caught etc.)
He never seems to hit targets forward of the play, or hit lead ups.

Caddy, Horlin-Smith and Guthrie all make mistakes, but they also do alot of good work, so you can forgive the bad. If Smedts wants us to look the other way on his negatives, he needs to do something good to go with it.

 

[Lana]

Haha I say nothing! Actually, I lie Legitimate question to the below stats, disposal efficiency in particular...



If a player disposes of the ball hitting a team-mate but said team-mate is immediately tackled (because it was hospital pass), is it considered an effective disposal because he hit the target, a clanger because it was a suicide ball or something else?

I swear to Gary Snr I'm not trying to target Billie, I like him and agree he's harshly criticised. I would like to see a stat on 'hospital balls' though if they are considered an effective disposal. Just throwing it out there!

That is true a hospital pass would be considered an effective disposal, also a 40 meter kick to a contest.

But its not his disposal that is the issue his real problem is that he often runs himself into trouble,

While there is no specific stat for this we can kinda estimate it using publicly available data, to measure how often a player "gets caught and doesn't get rid of it. It won't measure how often a play gives a hospital pass but it will show how often a player is put in a position where they couldn't even attempt one and it results in either a free kick against(if it was a free kick for they'd get a disposal) or a stoppage occurs.

Possession:when the player gathers the ball, hardball get, loose-ball get, handball receives, mark and free kicks etc.
Disposal: kick or and handball

%caught=100*(Pos-Dis)/pos



These values are most likely an underestimation since there are a category of disposals that don't incur possessions, which is soccers the ball without picking it up. If only soccers off the ground were collected as a different stat (if they did this would be a lot more accurate).

The only way a player can have more disposals then possession is if they soccer the ball more times then they get the ball but don't dispose it.

For other players like Taylor that often rush behinds it is an overestimation, as the player is possession the ball but doesn't dispose of it.

Again these values aren't 100% correct but an indication of often players get caught.

The values kind of match expectation and what we saw when we actually watched the game, Smedts gets caught a lot.

 

[BlightysCats]

Inside Football's analysis of Billy Smedts 2014.

 

[Teriyakicat]

Inside Football's analysis of Billy Smedts 2014.


View attachment 116891

What do the figures on the RHS mean, BC?

Just a note- Smedts was voted among the best in 5 of his 8 VFL games.

 

[Lana]

What do the figures on the RHS mean, BC?

Just a note- Smedts was voted among the best in 5 of his 8 VFL games.

Match rating out of 10 for AFL matches.

 

[Teriyakicat]

Match rating out of 10 for AFL matches.

Oh, thanks 10lana. I haven't seen those rankings or summaries before so was wondering what it was about.

 

[Willo_]

Match rating out of 10 for AFL matches.

ouch

 

[dazbroncos]

In that a lot of people think it's worse than it really is? Maybe, not sure. Personally, he does stand out giving a LOT of hospital balls to teammates when he is under pressure to me. Hyphen the same at times.

I see a lot of dinky handballs from those two when they're under pump that give teammates no chance but that is just my perception.

I would agre with the work under pressure, but using NAB2 as a sample, they both got stitched up a few times by more senior players hitting them in less than advantageous with the same types of hand pass you refer too.
Does not excuse them but they are not totally at fault.

Go Catters

 

[crocsta]

What do the figures on the RHS mean, BC?.

They numbers are his game rating between Murdoch and ten

 

[Shai]

Crud, where do I put this..? Apologies in advance for wrong place, wrong time..

Just seen Caracella has been accepted into an upskilling coach's course. Gotta b a good thing, also mentioned were -

Bolton (Hawthorn), Simon Goodwin (Melbourne), Robert Harvey (Collingwood). Others too but those are the 1's I rate @ this stage.

 

[Lana]

Crud, where do I put this..? Apologies in advance for wrong place, wrong time..

Just seen Caracella has been accepted into an upskilling coach's course. Gotta b a good thing, also mentioned were -

Bolton (Hawthorn), Simon Goodwin (Melbourne), Robert Harvey (Collingwood). Others too but those are the 1's I rate @ this stage.

It means we won't get to keep for much longer. Making this course reduces the possible pool of applicants for senior jobs from dozens to nine.

 

[FredLeDeux]

It means we won't get to keep for much longer. Making this course reduces the possible pool of applicants for senior jobs from dozens to nine.

Do sacked (sorry, "mutually agreed parting of the ways") coaches have to do this course before they take up another gig?

 

[Lana]

Do sacked (sorry, "mutually agreed parting of the ways") coaches have to do this course before they take up another gig?

Imagine Malthouse doing the course in 2018 when it becomes mandatory.