Mega Thread Melbourne Cup 2016 and all Cup day racing discussion.

[larkis]

For once a year punters, i would just put a bet on one of the longer odd horses to place.

For example

Gallante
Qewy
Heartbreak City
WhoShotTheBarman (bit old now tho)
Grand Marshall

All paying decent prices for a place.
Good luck trying to narrow it down.
BTW i wouldn't expect a safe bet tomorrow in the cup.
It's a huge field over 3200m a lot of stuff to play out and it's hard to win.

Appreciate the advice, was thinking 25 each way on one of them

 

[HawkintheTuarts]

I've done the form days ago so instead have been studying the forum form.

Conculsions

Jameka/Almandin - North Melbourne choke level board meltdown as everyone (except Jug) posts unlimited asian girl gifs for the next 24 hours

Hearbreak City/Qewy/Almooncat - Jug one man I told you so story for weeks

Anything else - crickets + random after timers

You forgot everyone else raging that it's the worst cup in 100 years...the same as last year. Have you done your annual kiss of literal death prediction this time?

My predictions:
1 - Jameka - only a broken slipper will turn this cinderalla story into a pumpkin
2 - Wicklow Brave
3 - Heartbreak City
4 - Oceanograpaher
5 - Alamidin

 

[Whowants2know]

So its now cup day

What time does Lloyd scratch 1 of his horse's

Isn't this that happens on Melbourne Cup Morning ??

 

[big_bazza]

Heres my top 4

Oceanographer
Almandin
Grand Marshall
Wicklow Brave

although theres about 8-9 i want to bet on. i have a few bucks each way on our ivanhowe and 15 e.w on almandin. im still studying the form now though so still a few more to put on yet, good luck tomorow lads.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Appreciate the advice, was thinking 25 each way on one of them

Qewy isn't the worst EW shot bit of money there at least. Secret Number possibly the best of the outsiders but it's a dartboard shot with that horse. I'm including both in my F4's.

 

[Better Loosen Up]

I'm going with Big Orange.

Looking at replays of some of his races, he looks like a bit of a fighter to me.

If they set a cracking pace this year which appears to be the case, then i think he could be very hard to run down

 

[JuddsABlue]

My top 3 are Jameka, Curren Mirotic and Wicklow Brave

Almandin, Heartbreak City and Qewy next

Will have Assign and Grand Marshall in the exotics

 

[Bic]

My top 8, narrowed down to a top 6, narrowed down to a top 4.

Bondi Beach, Jameka, Oceanographer, Almandin, Hartnell, Exospheric, Qewy, Heartbreak City.

Bondi Beach, Jameka, Oceanographer, Almandin, Hartnell, Exospheric

Bondi Beach, Jameka, Oceanographer, Almandin.

 

[Trucker Tiger]

Hartnell's tote price looking mightily appealing. Suspect the 100-1 bolter from last year has your once-a-yearers, more than ever, going wider than usual.

 

[The Passenger]

Been O/S for 3 months so am flying almost completely blind. Had actually almost forgotten this was on. Will just throw a blind 20 on Wicklow Brave (for a bit of value) based purely on his win in the Irish St Leger over Order of St George and Trip To Paris although a field of 4 over 2800 metres is quite ridiculous to be honest. Also no lead in run and barrier 24 not good, but * it.

 

[Aussie Assault]

Qewy isn't the worst EW shot bit of money there at least. Secret Number possibly the best of the outsiders but it's a dartboard shot with that horse. I'm including both in my F4's.

You're always going on about your F4s on here, interested to know how you structure yours? Not really a bet type I use a lot of mainly because it's an afterthought 2mins before they jump when I usually put one on.

 

[Tippaz]

my final bets:

$24 WIN Oceanographer
$8 WIN Exospheric
$8 PLACE Excess Knowledge
$3 BOX QUIN (above horses)
$3 BOX TRI (above horses)
$2 EW Curren Mirotic
total outlay: $50

after checking the TAB odds Curren Mirotic is way overs at 45/1 despite the fact he's a 9yr old (8yr old Northern Hemisphere time)
he's got a timeform rating of 124 which is highest of the overseas runners, and has won over $4mil in prizemoney
he can't be that bad... surely

 

[Trucker Tiger]

my final bets:

$24 WIN Oceanographer
$8 WIN Exospheric
$8 PLACE Excess Knowledge
$3 BOX QUIN (above horses)
$3 BOX TRI (above horses)
$2 EW Curren Mirotic
total outlay: $50

after checking the TAB odds Curren Mirotic is way overs at 45/1 despite the fact he's a 9yr old (8yr old Northern Hemisphere time)
he's got a timeform rating of 124 which is highest of the overseas runners, and has won over $4mil in prizemoney
he can't be that bad... surely

Curren will either run a place or be the first horse beat so, yeah, not the worst bet in the world. Forget the prizemoney stat, however. A maiden is worth more than the Ballarat Cup over there.

 

[Geelong_Bisons_#36]

Got a nice fixed odds quinella of Grey Lion + Gallante powerboosted to 2000/1.
A huge $2 invested.

 

[Aussie Assault]

Track a good 4

 

[Whowants2know]

Lloyd Williams just on RSN radio.
All his horses well and ready to go.

Think there is some confidence with Lloyd. Said he is going to the track today, 1st time in 20 years he will at Flemington on cup day. Must think he is in with a big big show

 

[mattwa]

Have you backed against it at all? Like put a couple grand out on other horses. At the odds you got, I reckon you could probably have the field and still end up well ahead.

Na i tried to work it out before. Say if I backed 5 to 10 horses at 200 ea on the nose and i get prince of Penzanced and a donkey wins, then I'm at a big loss. Then if I layed it at betfair it had been 16s all week (although it's coming in) so I'd profit a grand or two max which isn't life changing. It is what it is really, it'll be the worst three mins of me life and it probably won't win but if it did it would be unreal

 

[Chism]

Thoughts are changing every time i look at the form!!

What i am settling on.... ( May change at 3pm this arvo! )

Secret Number / Almoonqith / ROV / Almandin.

Small E/W bets on the longer odds runners and all 4 into my exotics.

Good luck everyone!

 

[GreyCrow]

I've done the form days ago so instead have been studying the forum form.

Conculsions

Jameka/Almandin - North Melbourne choke level board meltdown as everyone (except Jug) posts unlimited asian girl gifs for the next 24 hours

Hearbreak City/Qewy/Almooncat - Jug one man I told you so story for weeks

Anything else - crickets + random after timers

You forgot the ''gunners'' as in '' I was gunner back it but I liked the odds/jockey/trainer of the horse I actually bet on''

 

[GreyCrow]

For once a year punters, i would just put a bet on one of the longer odd horses to place.

Gallante
Qewy

Bugger the silver go for gold

Have both these $20 to win. 2 minute noodles or 2 minute steak.

 

[Trucker Tiger]

Lloyd Williams just on RSN radio.
All his horses well and ready to go.

Think there is some confidence with Lloyd. Said he is going to the track today, 1st time in 20 years he will at Flemington on cup day. Must think he is in with a big big show

Good mail. The crafty bugger could trifecta the race, which I've had a sneaky on him to do.

 

[Drakescoffeecake]

Personally have nfi about horse racing, but it seems like there are a few in this thread that know what they're talking about (or at least disguise it pretty well if they don't).

Gallante any sort of a show?

If it pisses down with rain between now and 3pm tomorrow he would be a flukers chance

You couldnt back him on a good track or his latest run leading in though with any sort of confidence/hope

No you couldn't back him on his latest run, but I'd listen to what his trainer had to say after that. Essentially, forget he went round. Gallante won over 3200 on a soft track earlier in the year. Today is 3200 on a likely soft track. Far from a "flukers" chance when he's proven he can run the trip.

 

[balmainforever]

FWIW. I've gone with 17, 1, 8, 23. With absolutely no confidence. Will take a Quaddie with about 12or 13 in the first leg and probably still miss it.

 

[rideclutch]

after checking the TAB odds Curren Mirotic is way overs at 45/1 despite the fact he's a 9yr old (8yr old Northern Hemisphere time)
he's got a timeform rating of 124 which is highest of the overseas runners, and has won over $4mil in prizemoney
he can't be that bad... surely

Yes his best is well good enough for this, even at his age, but good luck catching him.

I've left him in a couple of exotics in case they've tanked him to the eyeballs and he just keeps running Might And Power style, but you'd have to be guessing if anyone was tipping this bloke with confidence.

 

[Drakescoffeecake]

Lloyd Williams just on RSN radio.
All his horses well and ready to go.

Think there is some confidence with Lloyd. Said he is going to the track today, 1st time in 20 years he will at Flemington on cup day. Must think he is in with a big big show

$500 on Assign!