Predict the results of the 2019 Federal Election

[campbell]

Libs/Nats might do ok in Queensland as it seems to have been a focus for some time as many of the seats are traditionally more conservative.

That comes at the cost of Vic seats though. Morrison's already announced $100m for Hume & Calder upgrades so they know Vic is trouble for them.

I think the electorates are wise to the spending at the moment by the LNP.
So many times you hear, why now that an elections coming.Are we not good enough normally.


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[SBD Gonzalez]

More like you bye. lol. If you think Australia is so ordinary compared with those countries then literally "goodbye" and enjoy the bliss of those other nations!



Sorry you didn't actually answer my fundamental point.

Say my inheritance from my parents is taxed at 50%.

And then when I pass it on to my children it's taxed again at 50%.

Can you please, slowly and carefully because I am obviously very stupid compared with you, explain how we end up benefiting overall? Do we receive 51% of that wealth back in some sort of cash payment?

You do realise that how hot you get under the collar has no bearing on the facts?

Read The Spirit Level and then we can talk. Not much use in conversing with someone who seems to prefer to be wilfully ignorant of the facts.

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

And yet your 2 great comparisons are horribly unequal societies. What a joke.

Huh? Yes, the US is horribly unequal. My point is that an inheritance tax has not held back the US economy.

But as to Japan. “Horribly unequal” LOL. Probably THE most equal society in the world. Where on earth are you getting your information from?

 

[TigerTime_89]

Got a door knock by one of Greg Hunts volunteers today.

 

[Pessimistic]

Got a door knock by one of Greg Hunts volunteers today.

“Hey darling, Michael Hunts people at the door’

 

[Hoops]

I'm sure that he would have an opinion on what he has built through the decades, and paid tax on throughout, would now be subjected to yet another layer of taxation upon his passing.

He said on ABC that he supports it.

 

[Hoops]

I would rather the churches pay the corporate tax rate than see death duties. Are governments really that desperate for money that they need to take from the dead, they might as well work at the CBA.

Those that claim to support true equality of opportunity would love death duties as there is no greater leg up in society than being born into or inheriting money.

 

[Hoops]

He said on ABC that he supports it.

about 18:30 in
https://www.abc.net.au/radio/melbourne/programs/mornings/mornings/10852184

 

[Lebbo73]

Suddenly Kooyong just got a whole lot more interesting. Can't get much more prominent than Julian Burnside.

Julian Who? Never heard of the *er!

 

[Dry Rot]

Just read the last couple of pages and lost track of what this thread is about.

Thread has turned to s**t, yet again.

 

[TimmeT]

Julian Who? Never heard of the ******!

supposedly practices in human right law yet defended hird and his role in the peptide s**t

 

[nobbyiscool]

I think Burnside is an ok candidate - but the fact that he's long said that he won't run for parliament, along with the fact that the Greens have turfed a candidate pre-selected by the membership is total bullshit.

I also doubt it's the right seat. I know that the Libs are throwing a warchest at Frydenberg, but I think this actually helps him. Any votes that Burnside gets are likely to be tree tories, so their votes are going to flow back to the Libs anyway. And if the goal is to have a more progressive parliament, it's the wrong seat for the Greens to commit to - the ALP candidate is already a progressive Indigenous woman who's election would result in a more progressive parliament.

For Burnside to have any chance he needs to win the "3-party preferred" against Labor, and I'm not sure they can do it. Despite his thoughts on asylum seekers, which I agree with, he represents everything that sucks about the modern day Greens that moved people like me away from them.

 

[Generalissimo]

Anyway. To get the thread back on track of predicting the result of the election, I think the influx of high profile independents like Zali Stegall and Julian Burnside challenging the Libs in their allegedly safe seats is going to hurt the Coalition's chances. Gestapo Pete is on thin ice as well. They'll have to devote considerable resources to campaigning locally just to hold on to their seats while the Labor heavy hitters can campaign nationally.

 

[Forward Press]

I think Burnside is an ok candidate - but the fact that he's long said that he won't run for parliament, along with the fact that the Greens have turfed a candidate pre-selected by the membership is total bullshit.

I also doubt it's the right seat. I know that the Libs are throwing a warchest at Frydenberg, but I think this actually helps him. Any votes that Burnside gets are likely to be tree tories, so their votes are going to flow back to the Libs anyway. And if the goal is to have a more progressive parliament, it's the wrong seat for the Greens to commit to - the ALP candidate is already a progressive Indigenous woman who's election would result in a more progressive parliament.

For Burnside to have any chance he needs to win the "3-party preferred" against Labor, and I'm not sure they can do it. Despite his thoughts on asylum seekers, which I agree with, he represents everything that sucks about the modern day Greens that moved people like me away from them.

It makes sense if you perceive the amount of funds available to the Victorian Liberal Party as limited or a zero sum game, though. Every dollar diverted to save a deputy leader who should be in a safe seat is one dollar less towards more marginal seats.

I do agree that Frydenberg should win easily but this certainly upsets the apple cart.

 

[Jascave]

I reckon the Liberals would be extremely concerned about keeping their Victorian seats in light of what happened at the recent state election.


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[Howard Littlejohn]

Got a door knock by one of Greg Hunts volunteers today.

Not often you open the door and say "I was hoping for Jehovah's Witnesses"

 

[Hawk Dork]

Got a door knock by one of Greg Hunts volunteers today.

Had some dealings with his good mate prior to the election.
He owned a solar company and I was trying to wrangle a marketing/free solar panels for a community sports centre I was helping.
It was all going well
He said wait until after the election his mate had big plans for the environment.

Needless to say we ended up having to get them from somewhere else

 

[Baltimore Jack]

Not often you open the door and say "I was hoping for Jehovah's Witnesses"

Same methodology

 

[Pessimistic]

Like I said I’ll be preferencing Fryzo because at least one of the current govt should face the humiliation of a rump opposition
I’m relying on the rest of you to boot the others

 

[Bomberboyokay]

I think Burnside is an ok candidate - but the fact that he's long said that he won't run for parliament, along with the fact that the Greens have turfed a candidate pre-selected by the membership is total bullshit.

I also doubt it's the right seat. I know that the Libs are throwing a warchest at Frydenberg, but I think this actually helps him. Any votes that Burnside gets are likely to be tree tories, so their votes are going to flow back to the Libs anyway. And if the goal is to have a more progressive parliament, it's the wrong seat for the Greens to commit to - the ALP candidate is already a progressive Indigenous woman who's election would result in a more progressive parliament.

For Burnside to have any chance he needs to win the "3-party preferred" against Labor, and I'm not sure they can do it. Despite his thoughts on asylum seekers, which I agree with, he represents everything that sucks about the modern day Greens that moved people like me away from them.

Sounds as if you don't like it because you want Labor to win the seat.

 

[Jascave]

How come the political parties like Labor and the Coalition like to do their campaign launches in the middle of the day, where they should be copying their US counterparts and have it on in primetime?

 

[Hawk Dork]

How come the political parties like Labor and the Coalition like to do their campaign launches in the middle of the day, where they should be copying their US counterparts and have it on in primetime?

Headlines on the evening news or you bore the majority

 

[Bomberboyokay]

How come the political parties like Labor and the Coalition like to do their campaign launches in the middle of the day, where they should be copying their US counterparts and have it on in primetime?

Cultural lag.

America wasn't split into about 5 newspapers owned by 2 companies either.

 

[Jascave]

Just for a bit of fun, say you are the sub-editor of a leading newspaper (ie The Australian). What would be the headline you would use for your Sunday morning edition in case of either a) Labor winning by a massive landslide; b) the Coalition scrapes through to win but becomes a minority government; or c) hung parliament result.


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[GreyCrow]

Morris-gone
Morris-won
Morris-hung