Josh Frydenberg
Josh "Bradbury" Frydenberg, AKA the Minister for Israel, appears to be the only man left standing.
Predict the results of the 2019 Federal Election
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Josh Frydenberg
Josh "Bradbury" Frydenberg, AKA the Minister for Israel, appears to be the only man left standing.
Craven Morehead
I really don't care what you think.
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Is Porter any chance?
He's an excellent chance of being voted out. Is that what you mean?
Craven Morehead
I really don't care what you think.
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- #530
He won by 3.7% in 2016. The Libs are expected to be massacred in WA. Porter could be on the end of a 45-55 shellacking, not helped by his backing of Mr Potatohead at the expense of Bishop.It wasn't, but thanks for the info. I somehow thought he was in a pretty safe seat.
Not if Julian Burnside has anything to say about it
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And what will happen if Josh Frydenbeg is somehow voted out as well? Who will be the last person standing to lead the Coalition out of the wilderness (and there's a very good chance of that happening), taking into account Labor could be in office for 2-3 terms, depending on the size of the election win.
Maybe they could try and move Cormann down from the Senate?
That gets very tricky. Firstly, they'd have to find a "safe" seat to parachute him in. If Kooyong & Wentworth can both fall to independents, then the Libs need to ask themselves what even constitutes a "safe" seat these days? Then they have to convince the newly elected occupant of said seat to resign (they would then be able to take Cormann's vacancy in the Senate). Cormann then has to win the subsequent by-election.
Parachuting a new PM in from the Senate has been done before - but only once, and that was into a seat vacated by the death of Harold Holt.
If Cormann is a no-go, then they really are scraping the bottom of the barrel. Heck, even Cormann is setting the bar very low. HelloWorld proved that he's either incompetent, corrupt, or (most likely) both. The Turnbull spill proved that he can't count to 43. That's really not the sort of person you want to be presenting as the alternative PM.
I think Burnside will run 2nd, but Frydenberg should still hold on.
Only about 2 months to go. Labor have pre-selected candidates in all but a handful unwinnable seats.
Liberals look to still have a few dozen pre-selections to sort out. Granted, most in safe Labor seats, but a few on 2-4% margins still without a candidate. Not ideal when they need to be gaining to reclaim a majority.
Liberals look to still have a few dozen pre-selections to sort out. Granted, most in safe Labor seats, but a few on 2-4% margins still without a candidate. Not ideal when they need to be gaining to reclaim a majority.
And then there's Reid...
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/po...h-blow-to-scott-morrison-20190314-p5143k.html
If Burnside runs second, the vast majority of the Labor candidate's preferences will flow to him.
If Labor finishes second, Burnside's preferences will not be so one sided. There's a lot of people in that seat who are socially conservative but also environmentally aware, who could maybe vote for the environmentalist but would never give Labor a go.
Still, Burnside running gives Frydenberg an excellent chance of getting toppled regardless of where Burnside finishes.
I think Frydenberg's primary vote will still be high enough to see him get over the line. Burnside estimates that he needs to reduce Frydenberg's primary vote to below 45%, a reduction of 13% or more. I think Frydenberg will hold on.
I expect Burnside to finish 2nd, with Labor's preferences flowing his way after their candidate is eliminated. This will still leave him short of Frydenberg.
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- #540
I reckon we could see a landslide unlike anything we’ve seen in federal elections. The likely landslide that the Coalition will suffer (and it will be a big one) makes 1975 look honourable by comparison, with the late Gough Whitlam ‘saving the furniture’. And you can take it to the bank that Malcolm Turnbull will cop the blame for the defeat by the Sky News ‘shock jocks’ (ie Credlin, Bolt, Murray).
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Greens preferences usually run 80% towards the ALP, even when Petro Georgiou was the Liberal MP
The Libs have never lost Kooyong. Never.
I agree that it will be a landslide, but it will have to be truly unprecedented for Frydenberg to lose.
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just another issue os a lot of moderate liberal voters and also others dont see burnsode as a worthy alternative. a load of dorty laundry os carried by burnsode and it goes against both what he is running on and the party he represents claims to stand for.
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That is true but its been a long time since anyone has made a serious effort.
That's possible. I reckon it'll be closer than you might think, and at the very least it will force the Coalition to devote resources to campaigning specifically in Kooyong rather than the nationwide campaign. If they don't, he's definitely toast.
Maybe, maybe not. In the recent Victorian election, the LP primary vote in Hawthorn dropped by 11%. But this was with no high profile candidate standing against the strong incumbent (John Pesutto, shadow attorney general) and no money/effort spent at all by the ALP/Greens. Add in a third strong independent candidate (Oliver Yates, ex-LP, running on pro-climate platform) and the possibility of Josh Frydenberg dropping 15% primary vote is not out of the question.
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It will definitely force them to divert resources. No argument there.
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- #548
Most of the Liberal MPs whose seats in NSW and Queensland are not in the ‘safe’ zone won’t be too pleased that most of the money used to helping fund their election campaigns will be instead diverted to Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s seat of Kooyong. They’ll be asking ‘why him, and not us?’
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If Fryzo loses his seat then it means there are probably only about 45 at the most coalition MPs in the Parliament so it won't really matter who is LOTO at that point. Kooyong will be sandbagged aggressively. I don't think Burnside is a great candidate in any case.
He's setting up to be LOTO already with the positions he's taking and things he is saying. Already preparing to take a position as the savior of mortgage brokers.
He's setting up to be LOTO already with the positions he's taking and things he is saying. Already preparing to take a position as the savior of mortgage brokers.
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- Kidding, right?
Sheesh, easiest gig in town.
Guy only has to work one night every three years anyway, and this time he’s going to get sent home early to boot.
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