Predict the results of the 2019 Federal Election

[Baltimore Jack]

Sheesh, easiest gig in town.

Guy only has to work one night every three years anyway, and this time he’s going to get sent home early to boot.

He does all the State elections too....but yep, it looks like being a very early night for him

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

.... the latest Newspoll showed the Coalition was going down the toilet after a fortnight in which the government ramped it up over boat people and the economy – its two signature strengths – for no reward.

https://www.afr.com/opinion/the-nat...ons-last-shot-at-the-election-20190311-h1c9hb

Good. Australians deserve better than this entirely shithouse government.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Overshadowed by a busy news day, but Laundy is formally out.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03...politics-after-months-of-uncertainty/10867002

 

[masai]

Maybe they could try and move Cormann down from the Senate?

That gets very tricky. Firstly, they'd have to find a "safe" seat to parachute him in. If Kooyong & Wentworth can both fall to independents, then the Libs need to ask themselves what even constitutes a "safe" seat these days? Then they have to convince the newly elected occupant of said seat to resign (they would then be able to take Cormann's vacancy in the Senate). Cormann then has to win the subsequent by-election.

Parachuting a new PM in from the Senate has been done before - but only once, and that was into a seat vacated by the death of Harold Holt.

If Cormann is a no-go, then they really are scraping the bottom of the barrel. Heck, even Cormann is setting the bar very low. HelloWorld proved that he's either incompetent, corrupt, or (most likely) both. The Turnbull spill proved that he can't count to 43. That's really not the sort of person you want to be presenting as the alternative PM.

Bit confused here, I understand your reasoning, but Cormann is a WA senator, Kooyong (Vic) & Wentworth (NSW).

Cormann & Porter are on the nose with the general public in WA, they “masterminded” the Lib’s last state election campaign ....., say no more.

 

[Vader]

Bit confused here, I understand your reasoning, but Cormann is a WA senator, Kooyong (Vic) & Wentworth (NSW).

Cormann & Porter are on the nose with the general public in WA, they “masterminded” the Lib’s last state election campaign ....., say no more.

What is confusing you?

If Frydenberg loses Kooyong, then Cormann will probably be the most senior leadership option they have remaining in Parliament. With the carnage of May 18th laying waste to all of their other leadership options, they will have little choice but to make Cormann their leader. However, by convention, the Leader of the Opposition has to be a member of the House of Representatives. This means that they would need to engineer a way of getting Cormann out of the Senate and into the House of Reps.

The fact that Cormann is on the nose makes the task of parachuting him into a "safe" seat that much harder.

 

[Generalissimo]

The fact that Cormann is on the nose makes the task of parachuting him into a "safe" seat that much harder.

If that happened and Cormann lost at the resulting byelection, I would laugh and laugh like a mad scientist.

 

[Jascave]

If the Liberals lose by a very big margin, then where do they go from here? And if the Coalition MPs think they’ll be out of office for only one term (3 years), then they are sadly mistaken. Labor has learnt the lessons of the Rudd/Gillard debacle, and they win not make the same errors again.


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[Badesumofu]

If the Liberals lose by a very big margin, then where do they go from here? And if the Coalition MPs think they’ll be out of office for only one term (3 years), then they are sadly mistaken. Labor has learnt the lessons of the Rudd/Gillard debacle, and they win not make the same errors again.


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Truth is it's a lot easier to be united when you're in opposition. I suspect they'll behave very differently. When you're in government and actually doing things, you'll see more internal arguments about what those things should be, and they start to spill out. When in opposition you actually are united in purpose - getting back into government.

That presents a challenge for Labor as well. We've been great for 5 years. Will that continue in government? Hopefully that internal stability has become a good habit and will be maintained for a good while, but that is the challenge. For the Libs the challenge is to figure out what they stand for and unite behind it. It's going to be a Labor Government that is doing a lot and if it's done effectively then the Liberals will have to figure out an alternative vision for the nation (much as Labor have done) and try to sell it. I suspect they'll struggle with that.

 

[Rob R]

The election isn't fake.

No but 95% of our politicians and what they come out with speeches is.

 

[GreyCrow]

Truth is it's a lot easier to be united when you're in opposition. I suspect they'll behave very differently. When you're in government and actually doing things, you'll see more internal arguments about what those things should be, and they start to spill out. When in opposition you actually are united in purpose - getting back into government.

That presents a challenge for Labor as well. We've been great for 5 years. Will that continue in government? Hopefully that internal stability has become a good habit and will be maintained for a good while, but that is the challenge. For the Libs the challenge is to figure out what they stand for and unite behind it. It's going to be a Labor Government that is doing a lot and if it's done effectively then the Liberals will have to figure out an alternative vision for the nation (much as Labor have done) and try to sell it. I suspect they'll struggle with that.

Fair comment. I also think Labor could find themselves in the same boat as JH96. Too many MPs all wanting validation and recognition and feathering their nests

A big win opens the door for petty jealousies and rivalries. A small win satisfies those long termers with Cabinet positions and having the luxury of promising newbies with advancement later

 

[Badesumofu]

Will also depend a lot on the makeup of the Senate and what legislation can be put through. Labor were brilliant at that during the Gillard minority govt. If plenty is getting done then I think you’ll see more discipline and focus. When nothing is getting done then people turn their attention elsewhere which the current govt are a perfect example of.

 

[Pessimistic]

Truth is it's a lot easier to be united when you're in opposition. I suspect they'll behave very differently. When you're in government and actually doing things, you'll see more internal arguments about what those things should be, and they start to spill out. When in opposition you actually are united in purpose - getting back into government.

That presents a challenge for Labor as well. We've been great for 5 years. Will that continue in government? Hopefully that internal stability has become a good habit and will be maintained for a good while, but that is the challenge. For the Libs the challenge is to figure out what they stand for and unite behind it. It's going to be a Labor Government that is doing a lot and if it's done effectively then the Liberals will have to figure out an alternative vision for the nation (much as Labor have done) and try to sell it. I suspect they'll struggle with that.

That seems to be the case, but during Hawke-Keating and howard years the opposite is true.

But also the polling was different. Or reacted to differently. Is it the increased media scrutiny? That’s a tough one to pin down now. The current govt is rorting all over the place yet back then a colour tv wrongly imported got you the sack

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

Fair comment. I also think Labor could find themselves in the same boat as JH96. Too many MPs all wanting validation and recognition and feathering their nests

A big win opens the door for petty jealousies and rivalries. A small win satisfies those long termers with Cabinet positions and having the luxury of promising newbies with advancement later

Yes and no.

I think their experience since Rudd's ousting would have been extremely scarifying. They have been through hell, and they have re-grouped and salvaged a viable team and way forward.

I suspect there's an awareness in the Labor body politic that they simply cannot afford to let things again go to s**t to that sort of degree.

 

[Pessimistic]

Will there be an executive ‘gang of four’ or five as in the first Rudd govt.

I’m seeing the candidates as Shorten, Albo, Bowen, Plibersek, Wong.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

Will there be an executive ‘gang of four’ or five as in the first Rudd govt.

I’m seeing the candidates as Shorten, Albo, Bowen, Plibersek, Wong.

I doubt it
Shorten came out of the Union Movement where Committees of Management included a wide range of Members/Officials

Rudd was a Diplomat who never understood the need to consult any more widely than a small group of the inner circle

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

Truth is it's a lot easier to be united when you're in opposition. I suspect they'll behave very differently. When you're in government and actually doing things, you'll see more internal arguments about what those things should be, and they start to spill out. When in opposition you actually are united in purpose - getting back into government.

That presents a challenge for Labor as well. We've been great for 5 years. Will that continue in government? Hopefully that internal stability has become a good habit and will be maintained for a good while, but that is the challenge. For the Libs the challenge is to figure out what they stand for and unite behind it. It's going to be a Labor Government that is doing a lot and if it's done effectively then the Liberals will have to figure out an alternative vision for the nation (much as Labor have done) and try to sell it. I suspect they'll struggle with that.

I don't know, they have held their nerve under Andrews in Vic.

If the Shorten is willing to concede ground to the parties left, then they should maintain a fairly stable government.

 

[Badesumofu]

Will there be an executive ‘gang of four’ or five as in the first Rudd govt.

I’m seeing the candidates as Shorten, Albo, Bowen, Plibersek, Wong.

Not in the way there was under Rudd where the gang of 4 basically ignored everyone else, but Shorten, Plibersek, Wong, and Bowen are the leadership team.

I don't know, they have held their nerve under Andrews in Vic.

If the Shorten is willing to concede ground to the parties left, then they should maintain a fairly stable government.

Yeah, I think we'll hold together well as a party. Shorten seems quite happy to pursue a lot of what the Left want and half of the above leadership team is of the Left. You simply won't see the Labor Left throwing bombs the way the Liberal Right have while the party is pursuing a lot of things it has committed to and been talking about lately.

 

[Jascave]

If you think you’ll be reading news about what the new Labor government will do in its first 2-3 months in office since 2013, think again.

The papers will instead focus more on the Coalition ‘civil war’ where the Liberals and the Nationals will be at each other’s throats, pointing the finger as who is to blame for the Coalition election disaster at the hands of Labor.


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[Pessimistic]

Yep. Rethought it and the main people are:

Shorten PM
Plibersek deputy
Bowen Treasurer
Burke leader HOR
Wong leader Senate
Plus Ministers in charge of re-election Albo (infrastructure etc). Dreyfus (AG)

 

[Generalissimo]

Kim Carr for science minister. I've got a lot of time for Carr, and he is genuinely knowledgeable and enthusiastic about science.

 

[Jascave]

Yep. Rethought it and the main people are:

Shorten PM
Plibersek deputy
Bowen Treasurer
Burke leader HOR
Wong leader Senate
Plus Ministers in charge of re-election Albo (infrastructure etc). Dreyfus (AG)

Who’d be the Speaker of the House of Representatives and the President of the Senate if Labor wins power?


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[Benny78]

I really think conservatives/bosses/retirees are going to aboslutely get hammered by this upcoming Shorten government. He has too many of the votes and a strong union background. Judging by his current margin he can do what he wants without too much consequence and probably has a lot of things in mind already.

 

[TimmeT]

I really think conservatives/bosses/retirees are going to aboslutely get hammered by this upcoming Shorten government. He has too many of the votes and a strong union background. Judging by his current margin he can do what he wants without too much consequence and probably has a lot of things in mind already.

It is inevitably all going to depend on the layout of the senate. Abbott thought that he could do the same and it wasn't a nice and/or happy ending.

 

[NSWCROW]

Yep. Rethought it and the main people are:

Shorten PM
Plibersek deputy
Bowen Treasurer
Burke leader HOR
Wong leader Senate
Plus Ministers in charge of re-election Albo (infrastructure etc). Dreyfus (AG)

Michelle Rowland has been shadow comms minister for years now so i assume she'll get the portfolio

 

[DaRick]

I really think conservatives/bosses/retirees are going to aboslutely get hammered by this upcoming Shorten government. He has too many of the votes and a strong union background. Judging by his current margin he can do what he wants without too much consequence and probably has a lot of things in mind already.

It is inevitably all going to depend on the layout of the senate. Abbott thought that he could do the same and it wasn't a nice and/or happy ending.

In opposition Shorten's modus operandi has often been to give the government much of what they want so he can claim credit for a bill's passing (like that encryption bill, for example). Plus his background as a union representative required him to negotiate quite a lot.

Abbott, on the other hand, was in practice mostly a spokesman who just highlighted policies which John Howard or the people surrounding Abbott came up with, so he had no real experience negotiating with others at the time he became Prime Minister. That, combined with his fundamentally rigid, inflexible, ideological personality, meant that he couldn't negotiate a bill's passing.

I expect Shorten to compromise quite heavily with the Senate to get things through if need be.