Preview Round 16, 2022: Carlton v St.Kilda - Marvel Stadium, Friday 1st July, 7:50PM AEST

[Premium]

The idea of a "cohesive" game plan is a red herring, if you listen to the coaches they generally all rely on pressure and turnovers as well as clearances, pressure the opposition defensively however you can to create turnovers, as well as win clearances to attack through precision passing or go long and get pressure in the forward line to score.

I would say our gameplan was cohesive because we were really good at that and really that's what most teams are trying to do.

True

 

[NarklesHelmet]

I read an article on footy stats a few years ago and the metrics are a good guide but they are really loose. The contested possession stat just means a player is within 5 meters of when the ball is possessed or something, an effective kick just has to land in a similar range to the teammate it was intended for.

Lots of them probably need tightening up but it's also worth trying to analyse them in the context of the match that they were taken in. A side that leaks balls out of the forward line might have a player with very good pressure stats because the chase is measured but it's actually a symptom of poor entry or a side that has a lot of players inside 50 that don't do much so that one has to do the work of the forward 6.

Good coaches make a huge difference. The Swans looked very well drilled and structured last week. They were always hunting in numbers and if one presses others move up. They isolate players like McCartin to let him get easy marks, he's open because a player has gone in to block for him.

McCartin wouldn't have made as much of an impact at another club because they have created a role to take advantage of his assets. We did exactly the opposite under Richo who had some good ideas but couldn't implement them. There is a lot of Richo in the Dees style of play but it's refined and executed by a larger number of high-end players and he doesn't drill his harm minimisation mantra into them. They take risks.

Excellent post.

It reminded me of the best article I’ve read about the uptake of analytics in soccer when it, like Aussie Rules, was considered a sport not well suited for it (it’s a brilliant read generally but you’ll be especially interested in the recruitment parts of the article as well as that is an area we’ve been weak on for years)

How Data (and Some Breathtaking Soccer) Brought Liverpool to the Cusp of Glory (Published 2019)

 

[tomjoad]

Just doesn't have much competition. Long is about it.

I'd still prefer Long to Butler. At least Long has the occasional capacity to hunt, hurt, and do something good. Running about and flapping is not football...and to be quite honest, I'm not even sure it's pressure.

 

[lewdogs]

I don't remember all that pressure all year. I remember a lot of games us being down and a quarter of hard work getting us over the line.

The pressure part of it was definitely working all the time, the counter attack part not all the time but we ran over some teams when it clicked.

We had some really good wins earlier in the year based on absorbing pressure and creating pressure.

 

[sauce_head]

I'd still prefer Long to Butler. At least Long has the occasional capacity to hunt, hurt, and do something good. Running about and flapping is not football...and to be quite honest, I'm not even sure it's pressure.

Agree. I think this is our best team for the year but think this change would improve it. Unless Butler kicks four of course…

 

[Sully111]

The idea of a "cohesive" game plan is a red herring, if you listen to the coaches they generally all rely on pressure and turnovers as well as clearances, pressure the opposition defensively however you can to create turnovers, as well as win clearances to attack through precision passing or go long and get pressure in the forward line to score.

I would say our gameplan was cohesive because we were really good at that and really that's what most teams are trying to do.

Couldn't disagree more

 

[Premium]

I don't remember all that pressure all year. I remember a lot of games us being down and a quarter of hard work getting us over the line.

In all reality we were battling teams evenly , pressure was part of the reason we broke loose in the 2nd half and we put it down to the fitness of the side.
The teams couldn't handle the pressure and we benefited from turnovers creating the space in the forward line resulting in goals.

The unheralded players like McKenzie , Wood and guys like Steele missing has certainly impacted the pressure acts.

Guys like Hill , Milera may have the class but lack that defensive pressure and you can't afford to have to many of these types in the team when your not winning the ball in the middle.

 

[Sainttony]

I'll answer you Mr Lego man.

Sharman attended 11 contests for 3 hitouts, none to advantage.

Sam Reid attended 26 for 5 hitouts , 2 to advantage.
Hickey attended 62 for 17 hitouts, 4 to advantage.
Marshall attended 75 for 42 hitouts. 15 to advantage.

Hickey had no centre clearances.
We had 12 centre clearances, Sydney had 6.

Sharman in the ruck is less of a factor in the loss than free kicks, hideously skewed the Swans way.

The only real downside to Sharman in the ruck is that he wasn't in the forward line while he was there, but since Marshall was on ground for 90% of the game , i'm thinking Sharman was probably playing as a forward most of the game.
We were pretty much ineffective for 100% of the game so picking on our backup ruck choice is seriously barking up the wrong tree.

88 umoire throw ups is ridiculous, too many. Let them just play

 

[plugger66]

I think we were all happy but there were lots of warning signs early as well. A lot of our wins were from 10 minutes of King stamping his authority in the third quarter. We seemed to need King and Snags to both score at a much higher than average conversion rate than the rest of the competition kick at. That's unsustainable form and relies on a lot of luck. I was hoping that like Melbourne last year that confidence and form would carry us forward with momentum. Steele looks like the one that really made us fall away but we were playing lazy before that.

I probably don’t see it that way because I don’t rate the list like others. Of course we rely on patches of great footy because our midfield to me is just a midfield. I even said when we were 8 and 3 I though 12 wins or maybe 13 at best would see us out. That was before we lost confidence. Unless we get it back I don’t see our next win. I can’t see any comparison between Melbourne last year and us this year list wise. That have 3 genuine superstars all who play midfield then the best full back in the afl then depth we could only wish for Their second ruck is better than our first. Well close. Having said that look at how poorly they played for a few weeks. Confidence or lack there of can really stuff up a side. The difference is they had stars to get out of their lack of confidence and a premiership to fall back on so they mentally know they are the best. We know nothing once we lose confidence.

 

[Sainttony]

If I was Tommy Highmore I’d be training as a leading forward over the summer

 

[Mowman]

If I was Tommy Highmore I’d be training as a leading forward over the summer

more chance he is training at another club

 

[Plugger35]

Their midfield is stronger than ours but we have the edge in the ruckmen.

I'd be telling Paddy and Roma to belt De Koning and Silvagni physically at every opportunity and also belt the ball forward clear of their midfield.

Don't bother with fancy taps just hit the ball our way as far as you can.

 

[Saintbloke]

Their midfield is stronger than ours but we have the edge in the ruckmen.

I'd be telling Paddy and Roma to belt De Koning and Silvagni physically at every opportunity and also belt the ball forward clear of their midfield.

Don't bother with fancy taps just hit the ball our way as far as you can.

Paddy isn't exactly impacting like he was in the past, seems to have lost a bit of zing- don't expect miracles from a 34 yo ruck.

 

[Premium]

Agree. I think this is our best team for the year but think this change would improve it. Unless Butler kicks four of course…

We have not seen Butler kicking to many goals which made him a standout in 2020 - however his speed and stamina is not what Long has I hate to say it.
Long has had the better season but he just doesn't lay the amount of tackles they require him to make , Higgins is a different kettle of fish - he kicks goals but his defensive pressure is not where it should be and he plays more as a key forward - some of the stats he has picked up as a forward in the past is impressive and not to many can get what he does - 23 possessions a game is huge for a forward and he has done that or around that a few times.
But even this season with 16 touches he makes teams pay.

Season Highlights
●		18 disps (13 kicks 5 hballs), 9 marks and 4 goals in Rd 6 17-pt win over GWS at Manuka Oval (22 Apr 2022)
●		16 disps (12 kicks 4 hballs), 7 marks and 5 goals in Rd 5 26-pt win over Gold Coast at Marvel Stadium (16 Apr 2022)
●		16 disps (11 kicks 5 hballs), 5 marks, 4 tackles and 4 goals in Rd 2 10-pt win over Fremantle at Optus Stadium (27 Mar 2022)

 

[Plugger35]

Paddy isn't exactly impacting like he was in the past, seems to have lost a bit of zing- don't expect miracles from a 34 yo ruck.

If he can't dominate a skinny kid like De Koning he should retire, I'm not saying he should clock the bloke but he should be able to smash him.

Carlton have the edge in the midfield and we have the edge in the ruck so we need to make it count, if we can injure De Koning then that's a win for us.

 

[George]

Ridiculous that’s the photo they’re still running with but surprised I am not

View attachment 1436539

Looks like a shoe print from that dangerous altercation he had on the weekend that Ratten is trying desperately to cover up for by cracking jokes in the presser and deflecting the attention to his permanently hard nipples

 

[lewdogs]

Couldn't disagree more

Ok why?

 

[George]

Excellent post.

It reminded me of the best article I’ve read about the uptake of analytics in soccer when it, like Aussie Rules, was considered a sport not well suited for it (it’s a brilliant read generally but you’ll be especially interested in the recruitment parts of the article as well as that is an area we’ve been weak on for years)

How Data (and Some Breathtaking Soccer) Brought Liverpool to the Cusp of Glory (Published 2019)

If you have Twitter go and follow our main analytics guy, he's obsessed with the stuff and shares a lot of great content if you're a stats nut (like me). Darren O'Shaughnessy. Some of the stuff he posts is also brilliant.

https://twitter.com/RankingSw

 

[Mowman]

If you have Twitter go and follow our main analytics guy, he's obsessed with the stuff and shares a lot of great content if you're a stats nut (like me). Darren O'Shaughnessy. Some of the stuff he posts is also brilliant.

I don't think you would understand it midnight

 

[George]

I don't think you would understand it midnight

Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery that mediocrity (you) can pay to greatness (me). Have a snooze and recharge those batteries for a better fist of it tomorrow, chief.

 

[AirWinmar]

I don't think it's a great message to the playing group that you can stink it up in the 2s and still get picked..

 

[Saintbloke]

I think Ratts and the selectors, plus injuries, and a disorganised forward line, have totally unbalanced the team...they don't know what they are doing over the last couple of weeks. Crouch has lost form and Steele is a couple of games off his best form, and Jones not having much impact.

 

[plugger66]

I think Ratts and the selectors, plus injuries, and a disorganised forward line, have totally unbalanced the team...they don't know what they are doing over the last couple of weeks. Crouch has lost form and Steele is a couple of games off his best form, and Jones not having much impact.

How does a coach fix the midfield if he can’t drop anyone to bring anyone in.

 

[saintbill]

I probably don’t see it that way because I don’t rate the list like others. Of course we rely on patches of great footy because our midfield to me is just a midfield. I even said when we were 8 and 3 I though 12 wins or maybe 13 at best would see us out. That was before we lost confidence. Unless we get it back I don’t see our next win. I can’t see any comparison between Melbourne last year and us this year list wise. That have 3 genuine superstars all who play midfield then the best full back in the afl then depth we could only wish for Their second ruck is better than our first. Well close. Having said that look at how poorly they played for a few weeks. Confidence or lack there of can really stuff up a side. The difference is they had stars to get out of their lack of confidence and a premiership to fall back on so they mentally know they are the best. We know nothing once we lose confidence.

I think 13 wins would have been an acceptable result after sitting 8-3 with the run home. If you had told me that at the start of the year I would have been ecstatic, as like you I don't think the list is that good.

I thought 11 wins was realistic at the start of the year. Reality is I think that is probably about where we end up. However, feels very disappointing after sitting 8-3 and blowing the Port game.

Missing finals is going to be a tough pill to swallow after that start. Unfortunately, if you look at the run home for us versus the teams around us it is pretty clear finals are not happening.

The list is a long way off.

 

[Saintbloke]

How does a coach fix the midfield if he can’t drop anyone to bring anyone in.

If I was him, I would hit the piss