Player Watch 2021 AFL National Draft - NOT FOR TRADE DISCUSSION

[Strapping Young Lad]

Let’s stick with a basic rule for this thread, that it’s for draft watch and discussion only.

It’s not for trade hypotheticals, who you think needs to be delisted or traded, how many games you think we will win, some other team will win, how many picks you want in the 1st round or discussion of current HFC players.

It’s about youngsters who are eligible for the draft in 2021.


Key dates to look out for:

• NAB AFL Draft Combine: TBC
• NAB AFL Draft: Wednesday November 24 - Thursday November 25
• NAB AFL Pre-season and Rookie Drafts: Friday November 26

 

[daniel23]

Anyone seen Zac Taylor play?

Played in the trial match thought he was very good, just as clean and impactful as ward. It's all I've seen of him but I'd hope he is one we are looking at 24.

 

[SunshineHawkCal]

Played in the trial match thought he was very good, just as clean and impactful as ward. It's all I've seen of him but I'd hope he is one we are looking at 24.

I'd take him at 21 if he's there

 

[phlogiston]

Very surprised at the lack of love for Mac Andrew in here. If Callaghan is gone at our pick then Andrew is the one for me, might not be the midfielder we're looking for but his upside is insane and we just need some superstarts right now. Sounds like there's plenty of mids still likely to be around at our later picks too.

I reckon Mac Andrew at 5 makes sense. Here's why:

1. We are not looking at immediate success in 2022. We're talking, what, 2024 at earliest for a decent tile.
2. Based on the above, by the time we are there, Big Boy will be gone, so we'd be wanting another ruck on the list.
3. This trade period we lost 1 ruck, plus another who was a capable pinch hitter.
4. Accepted wisdom is that bigger players take longer to develop.
5. We are not going to be getting JHF or Callaghan, who from all accounts are the two standout mids this year. If for some reason one of them falls through to 5, then the above 4 points are moot.

So if we are as a club taking a 3-5 year view, and looking to put together a period of sustained success, for mine Mac Andrew makes a lot of sense at 5.

Disclaimer: there's a reason I'm not involved in recruiting or list management for an AFL club

 

[Roger Rogerson]

Watched the draftees v Cats VFL game.

Unfort walked away relatively unimpressed with a lot of the hyped up draftees.

Whilst I get the upside to Callaghan, two moments stood out that had me scratching my head. One was where he fell over without any real contact at CHF and the second was where he fumbled an easy mark on the wing with no pressure. You forking out a top 2 pick for him you would want to be confident they are not attributes that are common with his game as they are both deal breakers at AFL level. He didnt win much ball and certainly was far from a standout.

Mac Andrew - again I see the upside but geez he is light. Much more of a speculative pick than I was expecting. Would be nervous shelling out our first pick for him.

Rachele is less of a risk in selection - he is a footballer. If he had speed and power he would be right up there but doesn't quite have explosiveness to his game.
Fahey the GWS academy looked super.

 

[KingCantona]

Notes on Elijah Tsatas: Potential pick 1 2022


Height: 186cm


- Explosive pace away from the congestion
- Elite hands in close, dances around opponents
- Great agility to duck and weave through the contest, especially using his long arms to create space to give handballs away
- Get's around the ground well
- Relies on smarts and athleticism purely
- Late birthday in October, tells that he could grow more and develop even further
- Very skinny, indicates future growth in that department
- Reads the tap off the ruck superbly.

Even though I've never met him I'm pretty sure this guy is a distant cousin of mine. Obviously that's a sign he'll be a Hawk

 

[TDS7]

Watched the draftees v Cats VFL game.

Unfort walked away relatively unimpressed with a lot of the hyped up draftees.

Whilst I get the upside to Callaghan, two moments stood out that had me scratching my head. One was where he fell over without any real contact at CHF and the second was where he fumbled an easy mark on the wing with no pressure. You forking out a top 2 pick for him you would want to be confident they are not attributes that are common with his game as they are both deal breakers at AFL level. He didnt win much ball and certainly was far from a standout.

Mac Andrew - again I see the upside but geez he is light. Much more of a speculative pick than I was expecting. Would be nervous shelling out our first pick for him.

Rachele is less of a risk in selection - he is a footballer. If he had speed and power he would be right up there but doesn't quite have explosiveness to his game.
Fahey the GWS academy looked super.

Fahey had a great game that day, but apart from that one game, he has been very unimpressive for me. He likes to float off his players but his intercepting is alright but not great, he isn't fast enough to play as a quarterback and isn't tall enough to play lockdown on even medium-forwards. He has an incredibly impressive kick, but that is one standout skill amongst relative mediocrity. If I were the giants I would not be matching any first-round bid on him, I don't think he is worth the deficit at 14-20.

Callaghan had a weak game, he was up against rough opposition and had been bumped around most of the day. His contested game is his biggest weakness and the step-up clearly didn't suit him. I don't think he will have a blazing first year either but it is his development people will draft him for. Like Mac Andrew but closer to his potential.

Andrew is going to be years away, he could be special or he could be forgotten about. I wouldn't risk it.

Rachele would be alright, but I question his ability to play in the midfield. He doesn't seem to position himself well around contests, often in awkward positions, which means he isn't in the right spot to receive the handball and run with it. His forward work and marking is great, but when he isn't the target he seems a tad lost.

My preference is still Ward, Erasmus, and Hobbs. I think all three have a high floor and good upside while being players that could slot right into the team R1. The whole VFL v NAB game was a bad outing for the 18s, I wouldn't expect a team with no connection or chemistry, made up mostly of midfielders and looking like an All-Australian team rather than a proper squad, to beat a professional football team. It is good to see the standouts but the NAB league, rep games, and state league games are a far more reliable indicator.

 

[daniel23]

Fahey had a great game that day, but apart from that one game, he has been very unimpressive for me. He likes to float off his players but his intercepting is alright but not great, he isn't fast enough to play as a quarterback and isn't tall enough to play lockdown on even medium-forwards. He has an incredibly impressive kick, but that is one standout skill amongst relative mediocrity. If I were the giants I would not be matching any first-round bid on him, I don't think he is worth the deficit at 14-20.

Callaghan had a weak game, he was up against rough opposition and had been bumped around most of the day. His contested game is his biggest weakness and the step-up clearly didn't suit him. I don't think he will have a blazing first year either but it is his development people will draft him for. Like Mac Andrew but closer to his potential.

Andrew is going to be years away, he could be special or he could be forgotten about. I wouldn't risk it.

Rachele would be alright, but I question his ability to play in the midfield. He doesn't seem to position himself well around contests, often in awkward positions, which means he isn't in the right spot to receive the handball and run with it. His forward work and marking is great, but when he isn't the target he seems a tad lost.

My preference is still Ward, Erasmus, and Hobbs. I think all three have a high floor and good upside while being players that could slot right into the team R1. The whole VFL v NAB game was a bad outing for the 18s, I wouldn't expect a team with no connection or chemistry, made up mostly of midfielders and looking like an All-Australian team rather than a proper squad, to beat a professional football team. It is good to see the standouts but the NAB league, rep games, and state league games are a far more reliable indicator.

Loving your insights do you get to watch a fair bit of 19's footy??.

I thought despite the score in that game the highly rated players still showed moments which I find valuable being against bigger bodies . Rachele,horne,daicos,Erasmus,gibcus all looked good compared to the rest and there is no surprise to see them rated top 10 players.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

No chance we are taking a ruck with pick 5, especially with two potential long-term options now on the list.

 

[TDS7]

Loving your insights do you get to watch a fair bit of 19's footy??.

I thought despite the score in that game the highly rated players still showed moments which I find valuable being against bigger bodies . Rachele,horne,daicos,Erasmus,gibcus all looked good compared to the rest and there is no surprise to see them rated top 10 players.

I used to play the damn thing, but tore a few knee ligaments 2 years ago and just fell into watching the draft in lockdown. Right now I coach two juniors teams and my siblings are in academies so I talk to quite a few people around there. Apart from that, u19s footy is more interesting than uni and I had a lot of downtime throughout COVID. I like it though and I'll probably keep it up going forward.

I think all VFL challenge games are good for is seeing those who stand out. Those that do well deserve a lot of praise, but those who don't perform shouldn't really be dismissed too heavily. My thoughts of Fahey come from other games he has played, his game style and the role he will be asked to play just don't line up well enough for the AFL. Sure he will be a top-tier kick-in taker, but would you sacrifice Hardwick, Lloyd, Daniels, or another back who either locks down small forwards or disposes of the ball well up the ground just to get that? He will get plenty of games for the giants, but he will perennially be a good VFL, mediocre AFL player.

 

[TheFourPillars]

No chance we are taking a ruck with pick 5, especially with two potential long-term options now on the list.

We are taking the best available which will be a mid unless we really rate gibcus

 

[WWSD]

I’d be very surprised if we don’t target a small forward in this draft. Breust isn’t getting any younger, Hanrahan has now been delisted. Also ended up missing out on getting Wicks and Schultz who were players of interest.

 

[Blackhawk42]

I was the only one who saw it and it was a surface-level analysis. Basically going of his key bankable AFL traits (which seems to be his running power) and that his pokey kicking action reminded me of Phillips. So I was playing a little bit of devil's advocate to tease out what people see as his ceiling/floor.

I said the same thing in the draft thread last year.... it was always important to remember the number of non-AFL standard players who are still taken in the top 10.

Surface level - (all similar draft positions)
Hobbs is Nathan Freeman to Joel Selwood or maybe something in the middle.
Josh Sinn is Jaspar Pittard to Isaac Smith or maybe something in the middle

Here are some recent top 10's -

2017 - O'Brien, Dow and Coffield look like misses here.

View attachment 1260427

2016 - SPS, Ainsworth, Setterfield, Bowes, Brodie, Logue

View attachment 1260432

2015 - Francis, Weideman, Schace, Some random Gold Coast player? AhCHee?

View attachment 1260437

2014 - Cockatoo, Picket???, Marchbank??? Some random GWS bloke?? McCartin

View attachment 1260435


Anyway, you all get the idea. I guess what I am saying is, trying to only pick the strengths of the players might get you to overlook what might make them a non-afl standard player. So in a sense, analaysings the 'risks' of each player as well as the potential upside.

That was my logic of asking, why isn't Josh Ward just another hard running, okish kicking wingman like Tom Phillips.

Ben Keays could be the floor comparison for Ward considering their similar kicking actions. In fairness to Ben, he had a fantastic year after a slow start to his career.

 

[theiaofseed]

Ben Keays could be the floor comparison for Ward considering their similar kicking actions. In fairness to Ben, he had a fantastic year after a slow start to his career.

Why the hell are people comparing Ward with Rookie picks and people overlooked in their first draft, he's rated top 5 for a reason. Ward is an elite kick that can play inside and outside and is the best two way runner in the draft.

 

[Blackhawk42]

We are taking the best available which will be a mid unless we really rate gibcus

McKenzie and Mitchell have both alluded to our defence being pretty much set in regards to what we are looking for in this year's draft. Even if we rank him as 'best talent' I can't see us taking a key defender at pick 5. The need for a mid at that selection is so glaring and the gap between Gibcus and whoever we'd rate behind him would be so close it wouldn't override that need.

 

[Blackhawk42]

Why the hell are people comparing Ward with Rookie picks and people overlooked in their first draft, he's rated top 5 for a reason. Ward is an elite kick that can play inside and outside and is the best two way runner in the draft.

The question was asked in here by chopflop. People are answering it.

 

[TheFourPillars]

McKenzie and Mitchell have both alluded to our defence being pretty much set in regards to what we are looking for in this year's draft. Even if we rank him as 'best talent' I can't see us taking a key defender at pick 5. The need for a mid at that selection is so glaring and the gap between Gibcus and whoever we'd rate behind him would be so close it wouldn't override that need.

Yeah u are probably right. I would pick a mid if it was up to me

 

[theiaofseed]

The question was asked in here by chopflop. People are answering it.

Yet people keep making insane comparisons

 

[Billyc]

You can make a good argument for each of Ward, Hobbs and Erasmus I reckon. If we get one of them i'd be pleased. I tend to be a bit greedy and like the upside so Erasmus is my preference. But I see the other two as safer bets and genuine midfielders with higher floors.

 

[Rhayader]

The weeks between the trade period and the draft seem to drag on for months…

 

[kenneje]

Does anyone have any footage of Erasmus?

Listening to the plethora of draft experts, it seems likely our pick 5 (7) is one of;
- Blue chip, hawk loving Josh Ward
- Best skilled in the open draft Josh Rachele
- Modern day prototype mid/forward Neil Erasmus

 

[TDS7]

It's looking likely that Adelaide will take one of Rachele, Goater or Hobbs if they don't trade it. Their board seems very turned off Ward when he stated he was a Hawks fan and I would have to imagine it impacts the list manager's choice as well considering the interstate impact and the fact he would have to move to Adelaide.

 

[TylerDurden]

It's looking likely that Adelaide will take one of Rachele, Goater or Hobbs if they don't trade it. Their board seems very turned off Ward when he stated he was a Hawks fan and I would have to imagine it impacts the list manager's choice as well considering the interstate impact and the fact he would have to move to Adelaide.

Goater at 4?? Doubt it.

 

[Bardo State]

It's looking likely that Adelaide will take one of Rachele, Goater or Hobbs if they don't trade it. Their board seems very turned off Ward when he stated he was a Hawks fan and I would have to imagine it impacts the list manager's choice as well considering the interstate impact and the fact he would have to move to Adelaide.

They would have to be a bit spooked by the Vic metro go home factor.

Also a very strong SA crop next year. Wouldn't surprise me to see them move into next year's draft with the idea of having more chance of landing Ryan, Lemmey, D'Aloia, Keeler. Plus draft ammo for Lukosious/Rankine.

 

[TDS7]

Goater at 4?? Doubt it.

They really like him and his kicking isn't a big red flag for them. That is just the club board, the list manager is likely to look elsewhere. They might trade it back to Richmond if that is the case, it gets them Goater or Draper with maybe a second back, and Richmond moves up ahead of us to take Ward/Hobbs.

 

[chopflop]

Why the hell are people comparing Ward with Rookie picks and people overlooked in their first draft, he's rated top 5 for a reason. Ward is an elite kick that can play inside and outside and is the best two way runner in the draft.

It's pretty simple really. A floor comparison is a way to say "what's the worst this guy could be"... There is no point just talking about every player as the next merrett, dusty and danger when a significant portion of top draftees become non-afl standard players.

You obviously don't remember Mitch thorp
Or was it Thorpe?

I'll give you a couple more

Beau Dowler
Sam Bowie
Lachie Hansen
Jarrod Pickett
Patrick mccartin
Josh schace
Kane Lucas
Anthony morabito

And there are a million more.