Preview Brisbane Lions vs Camry Crom @ Adelaide Oval – 28 May 2023 @ 4.40pm

ice444 · May 22, 2023

Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows @ Adelaide oval – 28 May 2023 @ 4.40pm

Where to watch:
7 mate, fox footy, foxtel, kayo

2023 Form
Brisbane
8 wins, 2 losses and 2nd on the Table with 129.9%
Avg Winning margin 38 points
Avg Losing margin 34 points
Points For - 1003 – 3rd Best
Points Against - 772 – 6th Best

2023 Quarter Statistics:
1st – 7 wins, 1 draw, 2 loses
2nd – 5 wins, 1 draw, 4 loses
3rd - 8 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss
4th = 5 wins, 0 draw, 5 loses
Home Record – 6 wins
Interstate – 3 wins, 2 losses
Last 5 – WWWWW

Adelaide
5 wins, 5 losses and 8th on the Table with 107.43%
Avg Winning margin 36.2 points
Avg Losing margin 24 points
Points For – 882 – 6th Best
Points Against – 821 – 9th Best

2023 Quarter Statistics:
1st – 6 wins, 0 draw, 4 loses
2nd – 5 wins, 0 draw, 5 loses
3rd – 5 wins, 0 draw, 5 loses
4th - 5 wins, 0 draw, 5 loses
Home Record – 3 wins, 2 losses
Interstate – 1 win, 3 losses
Last 5 – WWLWL

Other Stats:

Last 5 – Brisbane 4 wins, Adelaide 1 win

Previous Round:
Brisbane were at home vs the Gold Coast and for 3 quarters it was a tight game, the lions iced the game in q4 with 6 unanswered goals to win 107 to 64 by 43 points.
Match report is here: Match Report

Adelaide was away and had a loss to the Bulldogs away 85 to 40 by 45 points, they lead for part of the 1st quarter but then got over run.
Match report is here: Match Report

Injuries/Suspension:

Adelaide – May 19th:

Name	Injury	Estimated Return
Hugh Bond	Knee	2-3 weeks
Tom Doedee	Concussion	TBC
Shane McAdam	Quad	2-3 weeks
Zac Taylor	Foot	11 weeks
Riley Thilthorpe	Knee	TBC
Taylor Walker	Rested	TBC

Brisbane – May 19th:

Name	Injury	Estimated Return
Carter Michael	Quad	2-3 weeks
Daniel Rich	Calf	1-2 weeks

Build up:
The Lions have won 7 in a row, whereas Adelaide is coming off a loss/win/loss, but as it is away from home it will be a good test for the lions.
The lions will be looking to notch their 8th win, get some % and also stay in the top 2, whereas Adelaide will want to get back on to the winners list and stay in the top 8.

2022-2023 Form:
Away from the Gabba, the Lions kick on average 13.8 goals, 8.8 behinds and 91.6 ppg, whereas their opposition kicks on average 12.5 goals, 11.8 behinds and 87 ppg, the average margin is 4.5 points and Brisbane have won 8/15 games away from home in 2022/2023.

Whereas at home, Adelaide at home averages 12.6 goals, 10.4 behinds, 86 vs 12.2 goals, 10 behinds, 83.33 for their opposition, and their average winning margin is 32 and out of the 18 games played at Adelaide Oval, they have won 9 and lost 9 in 2022/2023.

R9 2022 vs Adelaide at Adelaide Oval:
Last match vs Adelaide in Adelaide - win by 36 points:
Ground Adelaide
Date 14/05/2022
Home Adelaide
Q1 3.3
Q2 7.6
Q3 8.8
Q4 9.12
Score 66
Away Brisbane
Q1 5.2
Q2 7.3
Q3 13.6
Q4 16.6
Score 102

2022 R9 Brownlow Votes:
Lachie Neale – 3
Dayne Zorko – 2
Hugh McCluggage – 1

2022 R9 Lions Goal Kickers
Charlie Cameron - 4
Zac Bailey - 3
Dayne Zorko - 2
Jarrod Berry - 1
Cameron Rayner - 1
Lincoln McCarthy - 1
Keidean Coleman - 1
Jarryd Lyons - 1
Oscar McInerney - 1
Lachie Neale - 1

Preview:
Brisbane had a 36 point win at Adelaide oval against the crows and will be hoping for a similar scoreline this season leading into the bye.

Adelaide will want to score a win over the Lions for the first time since 2018 after losing the last 2 at home and wanting to stay in the top 8.

Looking at both teams, their form and the differences in form home vs away, it may be a tight game, although the last 2 have been won by the lions by 52 and 36, this is a different Adelaide team and this should be closer.

The lions defence will be tested with Taylor Walker, Izak Rankine in form, but out defensive unit should be up the task with Jack Payne and Harris Andrews having a fantastic 2023.

Our Mids should have the edge and our forwards should be on song, the only question is how will Brisbane perform leading into the bye and away from home.

Some areas for improvements are our slow starts, goal kicking and giving up goals just before quarter time, a full 4 quarter effort away from home would be pleasing.

Brisbane should be good enough by 2-3 goals and an 8th straight win to keep in the top 2 leading into the bye would be most welcome.

rye · May 22, 2023

great preview

adelaide reminds me of where we were at in 2018 / 2019. good brand of footy emphasising strong foot skills with a developing fortress at adelaide oval. whether their breakthrough from mediocre to the upper echelons of the ladder happens this season or next you can see they will be a force in the coming years if they maintain this trajectory

definite danger game for us

Elixuh · May 22, 2023

Awesome preview.

This is a danger danger game. Crows are strong at home.

twhowler · May 22, 2023

rye said:
great preview

adelaide reminds me of where we were at in 2018 / 2019. good brand of footy emphasising strong foot skills with a developing fortress at adelaide oval. whether their breakthrough from mediocre to the upper echelons of the ladder happens this season or next you can see they will be a force in the coming years if they maintain this trajectory

definite danger game for us

Yep and that sort of team rising up can have some downs away from home but generally go very well at home. Aside from the weird Richmond game crows have been very good at home. Big crowds now too.

Interesting to note their board is not very confident - mainly because their midfield was poor v dogs. They don't really get any mids back this week i don't think. Dawson is very good. Laird quite good too. Sloane started the year well but seems a bit weary. Keays can certainly do a good tagging job, suspect they send him to Neale. From there they have talent but less experience - Rachele, Pedlar, Soligo etc. If our midfield plays to its potential i do think we should edge them here. But that is an IF because Neale is susceptible to a tag, and Ashcroft has been much better at the gabba. McCluggage was right back to form which could be good timing. Add in Dunkley and Zorko and that's good depth. And can throw in Berry and Rayner.

Put simply i think a genuine top 2 side does enough to win this in a close one with the experience and depth in our midfield. It would be our biggest away scalp of the year so far and a massive win to go 9-2 with hawks at the g and swans at the gabba to come next. Yes i know don't get ahead of ourselves but 11-2 would be a superb launching pad for a tough end to the year.

A good game to have pre bye i think - we should be throwing everything at this knowing a rest is coming, and we've had 2 weeks at the gabba leading up to an 8 day break. No excuses!

Crows likely to get some very handy players back - Walker having been rested, Thilthorpe, Doedee. Hinge will miss, he's been handy but hardly mission critical. Looks like both teams very close to full strength.

Lace Out · May 22, 2023

Crow $2.10 Lion $1.70

KissKiss · May 22, 2023

I do like a lot about what Adelaide has done to build their list. Forward line is great, top line mids in Dawson and Laird but maybe lacks a little bit of depth. I'll admit Im not across their backline beyond Doedee - will be some tough matchups for them.

They have used Keays to tag a fair bit recently I gather. Wonder where you send him. Neale or someone like McCluggage on the hff

Section 5 · May 22, 2023

Thanks for the preview ice444 well done.

Adelaide travelled to that horrible place in Ballarat and were well beaten by the Dogs last week.
The Crows have defiantly improved in 2023 and will be hard to beat at home in front of a big crowd.
Their record at Adelaide Oval has been good this year even though they have lost 2 of the 6 games.
Loss to Richmond (14th) by 32, but only by 1 point v Pies (1st).
Good wins against Port (equal 2nd) by 31 points, Saints (equal 4th) 52 points, Freemantle (equal 7th) 39 points and Blues (11th) 56 points.

Our players need to be switched on rather than switched off as they were in their last Adelaide Oval game thrashing by Port.
It should be fresh in their minds so no excuse for not performing well this time around.

Walker was missing last week, and he kicks a lot of Adelaide's goals.
So, Harris and or Payne need to contain him to start with.
The midfield battle as always tends to determine the outcome of most matches.

A win and we hold down 2nd spot going into the bye.
A loss could drop us back to equal 4-6th with Dees, Saints, Dogs.

Tom14 · May 22, 2023

KissKiss said:
I do like a lot about what Adelaide has done to build their list. Forward line is great, top line mids in Dawson and Laird but maybe lacks a little bit of depth. I'll admit Im not across their backline beyond Doedee - will be some tough matchups for them.

They have used Keays to tag a fair bit recently I gather. Wonder where you send him. Neale or someone like McCluggage on the hff

I don't think Keays has done a midfield tagging job all year - has been locking down on half backs.

Dunkley to run with Dawson who is the most damaging player in their side.

Starce on Rankine should be a good matchup, Rankine has never played a good game against us but finally has a forward line behind him with multiple options to help him out.

KissKiss · May 22, 2023

Tom14 said:
I don't think Keays has done a midfield tagging job all year - has been locking down on half backs.

Dunkley to run with Dawson who is the most damaging player in their side.

Starce on Rankine should be a good matchup, Rankine has never played a good game against us but finally has a forward line behind him with multiple options to help him out.

So he'd be heading to either Coleman or McKenna (or Rich if he returned). Im not sure if any of them would overly upset us. We arent limited to just one rebounder as the others can work free. Even Wilmot can do a decent job with ball in hand

twhowler · May 22, 2023

KissKiss said:
So he'd be heading to either Coleman or McKenna (or Rich if he returned). Im not sure if any of them would overly upset us. We arent limited to just one rebounder as the others can work free. Even Wilmot can do a decent job with ball in hand

Keays got the job on Daicos and followed him through the midfield. Did damn well on him too.

I agree no point tagging our half backs, we get a bit of drive out of all of them at the moment. Kiddy, Mckenna and Wilmot all pick their moments to go on a bit of a run. It's a much better place to be actually and means we can run it OR kick it. McKenna is a much better kick than i thought.

If Keays gets a job on anyone it would have to be Neale i would think. We are pleasingly much less reliant on him but he has had 34 and 35 the past 2 weeks and i dare say got 5-6 brownlow votes in that time.

But the crows might decide to try head-to-head first rather than starting negative. Riley O'Brien had 63 hitouts on the weekend! They won clearances but got toweled-up beyond the clearance in the midfield.

KissKiss · May 22, 2023

O'Brien will likely follow Witts path and smash Oscar for hitouts. But that hasnt been a huge issue for us. Oscar will work into the game and offer more around the ground that at the clearance.

twhowler · May 22, 2023

As expected crows set to get back 3 very handy players

Crows set for triple boost for big Lions clash

The Crows are set to welcome back multiple players for a big clash against the Lions

www.afl.com.au

M Malice · May 22, 2023

KissKiss said:
O'Brien will likely follow Witts path and smash Oscar for hitouts. But that hasnt been a huge issue for us. Oscar will work into the game and offer more around the ground that at the clearance.

Hit outs mean nothing... I am not sure what people are seeing bagging the Big O out, he is doing very well in the ruck this year... to my eye anyway. Very rarely do I think gee O was demolished there by the opposition ruck, he at least breaks even most of the time and limits clear hit outs to advantage from his opponent. O is also averaging 6 clearances per game only 2 per per game less than Lachie and the same as Dunks.

I do think in general rucks are overrated though, unless you are at an elite level eg. Dean Cox, Max Gawn, albeit I think Gawn has been down since Grundy came in.

Nathan Barley · May 22, 2023

M Malice said:
Hit outs mean nothing... I am not sure what people are seeing bagging the Big O out, he is doing very well in the ruck this year... to my eye anyway. Very rarely do I think gee O was demolished there by the opposition ruck, he at least breaks even most of the time and limits clear hit outs to advantage from his opponent. O is also averaging 6 clearances per game only 2 per per game less than Lachie and the same as Dunks.

I do think in general rucks are overrated though, unless you are at an elite level eg. Dean Cox, Max Gawn, albeit I think Gawn has been down since Grundy came in.

Might not mean much but surely winning more hitouts and hitouts to advantage is better than winning less

Oscar is pretty much the worst in those 2 categories of all full time rucks

If you just want clearances might as well ruck Daniher or Dunkley

This year Daniher has 23 hit outs and 14 clearances

Viceregal · May 22, 2023

Combined Sqiggle Round 11 tip...

Adelaide 80 - 90 Brisbane Lions

Adelaide Oval (SA)
HGA:

+11.1 pts

What is this under 100 points for the Lions thing?????

GO LIONS!!!

M Malice · May 22, 2023

Nathan Barley said:
Might not mean much but surely winning more hitouts and hitouts to advantage is better than winning less

Oscar is pretty much the worst in those 2 categories of all full time rucks

If you just want clearances might as well ruck Daniher or Dunkley

This year Daniher has 23 hit outs and 14 clearances

You see plenty of hit outs go to opposition midfielders, there are very few clear hit outs to advantage... I mean hit outs to a loose mid running freely. I would like to know how they actually measure what a hit out to advantage is.

Oscar has 57 clearances and 307 hit outs.

I just did some googling to see if I could find stats for hit outs to advantage averages >AFL Player Statistics

If I am reading it right Big O is averaging 29% hit outs to advantage and 8.9 total each game.

Best percentage is Ned Moyle at 37.7% but has only played 2 games. Witts 31.4%, Darcy 27.8%. Witts and Darcy both averaging around 3 extra hit outs to advantage per game.... again what does that mean exactly.

* Witts and Darcy widely regarded as 2 of the best rucks in the game at the moment.

Nathan Barley · May 22, 2023

And people talk about Oscars clearances but he has the worst disposal efficiency of all rucks at less than 50%. His clearances generally go straight to an opponent

M Malice · May 22, 2023

Nathan Barley said:
And people talk about Oscars clearances but he has the worst disposal efficiency of all rucks at less than 50%. His clearances generally go straight to an opponent

We can just agree to disagree, I think O does a pretty good job and you don't which is fine, I don't think I am going to convince you he is any good and you won't convince me he is ordinary.

Nathan Barley · May 22, 2023

M Malice said:
We can just agree to disagree, I think O does a pretty good job and you don't which is fine, I don't think I am going to convince you he is any good and you won't convince me he is ordinary.

He's basically a defensive ruckman which can work well like against Darcy a couple of weeks ago and you can get away with an average ruck like Geelong and Collingwood

Also takes most of the ruck contests so we can get away with only 1 ruck which is handy

rye · May 22, 2023

oscar is criminally underrated by some here

has received coaches votes in multiple wins now, is generally well coordinated with the midfield with his tapwork and has lifted around the ground this year.

brad johnson mentioned him as being with darcy and english in the all australian conversation

DERRINALPHIL · May 22, 2023

ice444 said:
Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows @ Adelaide oval – 28 May 2023 @ 4.40pm

Where to watch:
7 mate, fox footy, foxtel, kayo

2023 Form
Brisbane
8 wins, 2 losses and 2nd on the Table with 129.9%
Avg Winning margin 38 points
Avg Losing margin 34 points
Points For - 1003 – 3rd Best
Points Against - 772 – 6th Best

2023 Quarter Statistics:
1st – 7 wins, 1 draw, 2 loses
2nd – 5 wins, 1 draw, 4 loses
3rd - 8 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss
4th = 5 wins, 0 draw, 5 loses
Home Record – 6 wins
Interstate – 3 wins, 2 losses
Last 5 – WWWWW

Adelaide
5 wins, 5 losses and 8th on the Table with 107.43%
Avg Winning margin 36.2 points
Avg Losing margin 24 points
Points For – 882 – 6th Best
Points Against – 821 – 9th Best

2023 Quarter Statistics:
1st – 6 wins, 0 draw, 4 loses
2nd – 5 wins, 0 draw, 5 loses
3rd – 5 wins, 0 draw, 5 loses
4th - 5 wins, 0 draw, 5 loses
Home Record – 3 wins, 2 losses
Interstate – 1 win, 3 losses
Last 5 – WWLWL

Other Stats:
View attachment 1693745

Last 5 – Brisbane 4 wins, Adelaide 1 win

View attachment 1693742

Previous Round:
Brisbane were at home vs the Gold Coast and for 3 quarters it was a tight game, the lions iced the game in q4 with 6 unanswered goals to win 107 to 64 by 43 points.
Match report is here: Match Report

Adelaide was away and had a loss to the Bulldogs away 85 to 40 by 45 points, they lead for part of the 1st quarter but then got over run.
Match report is here: Match Report

Injuries/Suspension:

Adelaide – May 19th:

Name Injury Estimated Return
Hugh Bond Knee 2-3 weeks
Tom Doedee Concussion TBC
Shane McAdam Quad 2-3 weeks
Zac Taylor Foot 11 weeks
Riley Thilthorpe Knee TBC
Taylor Walker Rested TBC

Brisbane – May 19th:

Name Injury Estimated Return
Carter Michael Quad 2-3 weeks
Daniel Rich Calf 1-2 weeks

Build up:
The Lions have won 7 in a row, whereas Adelaide is coming off a loss/win/loss, but as it is away from home it will be a good test for the lions.
The lions will be looking to notch their 8th win, get some % and also stay in the top 2, whereas Adelaide will want to get back on to the winners list and stay in the top 8.

2022-2023 Form:
Away from the Gabba, the Lions kick on average 13.8 goals, 8.8 behinds and 91.6 ppg, whereas their opposition kicks on average 12.5 goals, 11.8 behinds and 87 ppg, the average margin is 4.5 points and Brisbane have won 8/15 games away from home in 2022/2023.

Whereas at home, Adelaide at home averages 12.6 goals, 10.4 behinds, 86 vs 12.2 goals, 10 behinds, 83.33 for their opposition, and their average winning margin is 32 and out of the 18 games played at Adelaide Oval, they have won 9 and lost 9 in 2022/2023.

R9 2022 vs Adelaide at Adelaide Oval:
Last match vs Adelaide in Adelaide - win by 36 points:
Ground Adelaide
Date 14/05/2022
Home Adelaide
Q1 3.3
Q2 7.6
Q3 8.8
Q4 9.12
Score 66
Away Brisbane
Q1 5.2
Q2 7.3
Q3 13.6
Q4 16.6
Score 102

2022 R9 Brownlow Votes:
Lachie Neale – 3
Dayne Zorko – 2
Hugh McCluggage – 1

2022 R9 Lions Goal Kickers
Charlie Cameron - 4
Zac Bailey - 3
Dayne Zorko - 2
Jarrod Berry - 1
Cameron Rayner - 1
Lincoln McCarthy - 1
Keidean Coleman - 1
Jarryd Lyons - 1
Oscar McInerney - 1
Lachie Neale - 1

Preview:
Brisbane had a 36 point win at Adelaide oval against the crows and will be hoping for a similar scoreline this season leading into the bye.

Adelaide will want to score a win over the Lions for the first time since 2018 after losing the last 2 at home and wanting to stay in the top 8.

Looking at both teams, their form and the differences in form home vs away, it may be a tight game, although the last 2 have been won by the lions by 52 and 36, this is a different Adelaide team and this should be closer.

The lions defence will be tested with Taylor Walker, Izak Rankine in form, but out defensive unit should be up the task with Jack Payne and Harris Andrews having a fantastic 2023.

Our Mids should have the edge and our forwards should be on song, the only question is how will Brisbane perform leading into the bye and away from home.

Some areas for improvements are our slow starts, goal kicking and giving up goals just before quarter time, a full 4 quarter effort away from home would be pleasing.

Brisbane should be good enough by 2-3 goals and an 8th straight win to keep in the top 2 leading into the bye would be most welcome.

I’m not a stat man but they were very interesting. Read through them a couple of times.

M Malice · May 22, 2023

rye said:
oscar is criminally underrated by some here

has received coaches votes in multiple wins now, is generally well coordinated with the midfield with his tapwork and has lifted around the ground this year.

brad johnson mentioned him as being with darcy and english in the all australian conversation

DERRINALPHIL · May 22, 2023

rye said:
oscar is criminally underrated by some here

has received coaches votes in multiple wins now, is generally well coordinated with the midfield with his tapwork and has lifted around the ground this year.

brad johnson mentioned him as being with darcy and english in the all australian conversation

If you combine O’s stats, Daniher’s and Fort’s one game how do we stack up against other teams.
I hahe a feeling that Daniher gets a higher percentage of kicks away grom a rucking contest than O’s and all other ruckmen

KissKiss · May 22, 2023

Oscar has really built into the year and is often in coaches botes or mentioned by the opposition as a key factor. Again he often looks to be beaten early especially by the big rucks (eg Witts). But he really works into games pretty well and at worse minimises the damage of the opposition ruck. He and Daniher have been a great combination for the last month or so.

BUT I do see value in Fort playing soon-ish. I dont want to burn out what Oscar is doing so he is injured come the end of the year. Whether thats resting Oscar or playing both rucks I think we do need to start considering the back end of the year. When can we look to give players a break or lighter load. We have one of the best injury lists and we shouldnt waste that now

Nathan Barley · May 22, 2023

We did pretty well in finals last year without Oscar

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Preview Brisbane Lions vs Camry Crom @ Adelaide Oval – 28 May 2023 @ 4.40pm

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