Carlton 2024 - Are they being overestimated?

[carlton_99]

I get that many basically copy and paste the ladder from last year as their ladder predictor, and maybe put their own team up a few rungs in hope, and maybe fiddle a few places to show they’re being sophisticated about it.

But a lot changes between seasons. The draw changes. Players get traded and drafted. Old players get older. Young players get another preseason under their belt. Key players get injured. Maybe 1 or 2 coaches changes, and footy bosses changes. A bunch of assistant coach / fitness coach changes. Gameplan changes. Rule changes.

And so the ladder changes, often by a lot. What happened to Geelong, Freo, Bulldogs and Richmond in 2023? (All of them teams that played finals the previous year). Swans barely snuck into finals on the back of a bad goal umpiring call.

FWIW, I think my own team is a bit overhyped at the moment due to list profile / age. But the Premiers get that, just as Geelong did the previous season.

That's all fair enough - there will likely be some major changes to the ladder

 

[Beer n Skittles]

Clear issues with depth and consistency. Pundits talking about premierships are really just settings themselves up for 'Carlton underperforming' type articles in a few weeks.

 

[RAPPA]

Backline is a worry as is the lack of depth to fill the HF role. No club plans to make a late charge at the end of the season because they’ll blow their petrol tickets. They need to bank some wins in the first half of the year because they ain’t gonna get a run of wins as they did last year.

 

[TeeJay Blue]

Carlton are not being predicted to finish top 4 because of how good or exciting they can be.

They are being predicted to finish top 4 only because they are expected to.

And because of that, Carlton will likely struggle to finish top 4 (perhaps even make finals). This club can't handle expectation at a time when it shows most.

The list and talent is there. But the balance, cohesion and mentality are all either still a work in progress or an obstacle they simply cannot overcome.

 

[Arr0w]

Think our range of wins this year is 13-16, beyond that who knows

 

[carlton_99]

This club can't handle expectation at a time when it shows most.

Gotta have faith that the club and players have gotten over this fear of expectation. Hoping that what happened at the end of 2022 has stuck with them and it drives them to perform in a way that ensures they never feel like that again.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

5th to 8th for mine. About the same as last year.

I think they were a little flattered in the finals, they kicked 22.15 in their two finals wins to their opponents 18.31. And came away with two wins.

But once you’re there anything can happen, and I think they’ll put themselves there again.

 

[carlton_99]

I think they were a little flattered in the finals, they kicked 22.15 in their two finals wins to their opponents 18.31. And came away with two wins.

We did lead wire to wire against the Swans in the EF and were 10+ in inside 50s.

Melbourne game they fluffed chances but in inside 50s both teams were pretty much dead even (+1 Dees way). Not bad when you consider they were +37 i50s in the semi final against the Pies a week prior.

 

[bzparkes]

Just missed finals in 2022 and made a prelim from outside the top 4 last year, without Curnow or McKay doing much during finals.

It's a fairly natural trajectory for a team that ends up competing.

Wouldn't have them flag favourites but they should be pushing for top 4.

 

[UcantCme]

Just missed finals in 2022 and made a prelim from outside the top 4 last year, without Curnow or McKay doing much during finals.

It's a fairly natural trajectory for a team that ends up competing.

Wouldn't have them flag favourites but they should be pushing for top 4.

McKay didn’t do much all season, he was bordering on being a liability

natural trajectory just don’t happen, then will need to back up their late 2023 form

Brisbane, Collingwood and Giants all look strong, their might only be one spot left in the top 4 and history suggests there will be a bolter that could rise as well


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[bzparkes]

McKay didn’t do much all season, he was bordering on being a liability

natural trajectory just don’t happen, then will need to back up their late 2023 form

Brisbane, Collingwood and Giants all look strong, their might only be one spot left in the top 4 and history suggests there will be a bolter that could rise as well


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

Not sold on Collingwood.

Many of their best 22 are over 30 and they scraped through their finals.

Should make top 4 but I could see them falling into the bottom half of the 8, if they cop a few injuries/teams actually tag Naicos.

Port could do anything, from finishing top 2 to finishing 10th.

Brisbane's probably to only 'sure thing', as far as top 4 finishes go, for me.

Likeliest bolter would probably be Adelaide.

Carlton have a lot of improvement they can make on last season.

 

[Rich01]

Contenders.
This is the start of their 4 year flag window.

Flags are hard to win but I’d expect them to be playing off in a couple of GFs in that time.

Their list is primed and they have talent all over the park.

It will really be up to keeping that playing list fit and firing and for Coach Voss to articulate a game plan that can maximise the talents of the group.

Exciting times for Blues fans. Time for them to sit back and enjoy the ride.

 

[boncer34]

We did lead wire to wire against the Swans in the EF and were 10+ in inside 50s.

Melbourne game they fluffed chances but in inside 50s both teams were pretty much dead even (+1 Dees way). Not bad when you consider they were +37 i50s in the semi final against the Pies a week prior.

Curious on your thoughts on McKay. If his form from last year continues does he play VFL?

 

[carlton_99]

Curious on your thoughts on McKay. If his form from last year continues does he play VFL?

Had a rough year in front the sticks but I see him as a top 3 most important player for us. The work he does up the ground is so important for us - do not see him going anywhere near the VFL.

I still maintain that if he had just kicked average for goal in 2023 he would have had a year equal to Curnow's in terms of impact on the team

 

[Jeremias]

Curious on your thoughts on McKay. If his form from last year continues does he play VFL?

Definitely not - he is very important to us.

As for his 'form' last year, it's interesting what people see and don't see, and in particular how much a player can be judged on the back of one specific aspect of their game.

Prior to Harry going down he was fantastic IMO. I have been firm that Harry was arguably having his best year at AFL level prior to going down with injury, playing a very different role to what we and he are used to.

Obviously, his goal kicking was a s**t show, and rightly or wrongly that's what most people judge him on. But the rest of his game was exceptional.

 

[Swanssince91]

Had a rough year in front the sticks but I see him as a top 3 most important player for us. The work he does up the ground is so important for us - do not see him going anywhere near the VFL.

I still maintain that if he had just kicked average for goal in 2023 he would have had a year equal to Curnow's in terms of impact on the team

One of the best contested marks around, unfortunately he has the yips.
I actually thought Carlton would try and move him on

 

[Bombermania]

Carlton are a real chance of making finals and can understand why Blues fans are excited but the media has been sheepish in how quick they have jumped on the Carlton bandwagon.

 

[Doc1763]

Well, they've added Orazio Fantasia

14

Orazio Fantasia

Age

28

Ht

180cm

Wt

73kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.6

3star

K

7.4

3star

HB

6.2

4star

M

3.6

4star

T

3.1

5star

G

1.4

5star

D

9.8

2star

K

5.4

2star

HB

4.4

3star

M

3.0

3star

T

1.2

2star

G

0.2

3star

D

12.0

3star

K

4.6

2star

HB

7.4

5star

M

3.4

4star

T

2.2

4star

G

0.0

1star

to their losing preliminary Final side, so I can understand why they are now outright undisputed favorites for the flag.

As a wise man once said, I cant see them losing a game.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Well, they've added Orazio Fantasia to their losing preliminary Final side, so I can understand why they are now outright undisputed favorites for the flag.

As a wise man once said, I cant see them losing a game.

Malthouse the oracle

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Still maintain Malthouse was an inside job plant by Eddie. Couldn't just give Betts his extra 50k...

 

[Doc1763]

Still maintain Malthouse was an inside job plant by Eddie. Couldn't just give Betts his extra 50k...

Absolutely!! And Daisy as well, the old one-two punch!!!

 

[boncer34]

Yes

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

Can’t believe some people actually thought they should be premiership favourites.

Will vic media ever learn?

 

[RudyBlue]

Big yes

 

[kreuze_missile]

If you don’t have them flag favourites you’re a moron.