Preview Demons v Richmond- Official Preview (general match discussion)

[Wonaeamirri33]

THE GAME: MCG, Saturday 14 April, 1.45pm (AEST)

HEAD TO HEAD:

Overall: Played 181, Melbourne 79 wins, Richmond 100, 2 draws

Since 2000: Melbourne 9 wins, Richmond 13

Last time: Melbourne 17.8 (110) def by Richmond 17.15 (117), Round 22 2011 at the MCG

MEDIA

TV: Fox Footy (live at 1:45pm AEST) Channel 7 (delayed in Victoria at 3:00pm AEST)

RADIO: ABC, 3AW, Triple M, 6PR

THE BETTING: Melbourne $4.00 Richmond $1.26

SUMMARY:

How things change. Last year's round 14 clash between these teams was billed as a clash of the up-and-comers. And it was a beauty, with the good guys winning by 27 points. Both teams go into this match without a win this season, but in very different circumstances to say the least.

Richmond continue to improve after spirited losses to premiership candidates Carlton and Collingwood, while the Demons are experiencing what can best be described as nightmarish teething trouble, after off-field upheavals and whippings from the Brisbane Lions and West Coast.

Losses to Carlton and Collingwood in Round 1 and 2 were far from embarrassing for the Tigers, and this shapes as a huge clash in what is certainly a tough start to the season for both clubs.

WALKING WOUNDED:

Richmond hard nut Jake King became the latest injury concern for the Tigers after he damaged his posterior cruciate ligament in the loss to Collingwood. King tore his PCL and suffered cartilage damage, and he is likely to miss up to six weeks. Speedy midfielder Nathan Foley had his nose broken against the Pies. Brad Helbig (foot) and David Astbury (knee) are out indefinitely, while Kelvin Moore (hip) remains on the long-term injury list at Punt Rd.

Melbourne's injury list remains a long one, with the likes of Brent Moloney, Colin Sylvia, Liam Jurrah, Jordan Gysberts and Neville Jetta sidelined. Moloney (groin) and Stefan Martin (hip) will both face fitness tests. Sylvia (back) and Jurrah (wrist) are still three weeks away from returning, while James Strauss (leg) and Lucas Cook (groin) are a fortnight away.

Gysberts (ankle) will be sidelined for another three to five weeks, Rory Taggert (back) is three weeks away, while Max Gawn is out for the season with a knee injury. Michael Evans (back) and Neville Jetta (ankle) are out indefinitely. In good news for Melbourne, big man Jake Spencer returns this weekend and is likely to line up for Casey in the VFL.

FORM:

Demons' Past Five:

Round 2: Loss, 9.4 (58) - 25.16 (166) v Eagles, Patersons Stadium
Round 1: Loss, 11.12 (78) - 17.17 (119) v Lions, MCG
NAB Cup 5: Loss, 9.10 (64) - 17.10 (112) v Power, AAMI Stadium
NAB Cup 4: Loss, 0.6.8 (44) - 1.17.12 (123) v Hawks, Etihad Stadium
NAB Cup 3: Win, 0.11.13 (79) - 1.9.7 (70) v Pies, Etihad Stadium

Tigers' Past Five:

Round 2: Loss, 8.16 (64) - 12.13 (85) v Pies, MCG
Round 1: Loss, 12.9 (81) - 18.17 (125) v Blues, MCG
NAB Cup 5: Win, 20.20 (140) - 10.6 (66) v Giants, Manuka Oval
NAB Cup 4: Win, 1.14.15 (108) - 0.6.13 (49) v Cats, Simonds Stadium
NAB Cup 3: Loss, 0.10.7 (67) - 1.14.12 (105) v Dockers, Patersons Stadium

WHO'S HOT:

James Magner - it has only taken him two games, but Magner is already leading the way for Melbourne. After an impressive display on debut against Brisbane, Magner collected a game-high 20 contested disposals in the loss to West Coast. The mature-age recruit's 32 disposals included 11 clearances.

Brett Deledio - racked up 35 disposals, 13 of which were contested, in the loss to Collingwood. He also pumped the ball inside 50 nine times, and if he, Trent Cotchin and Dustin Martin can win a few more clearances, the Tigers are certain to keep improving.

PREDICTION:

Richmond have looked the far more likely of these two teams early in the season and they face games against Geelong and West Coast after this. But previous form is likely to be irrelevant in this match.

The Demons were expected to be firing in round one, before a response to that poor showing was expected at Patersons Stadium. Expected, but never delivered. Melbourne are due to fire up and begin responding to the critics, and I hope like hell that begins this weekend.

The return of Moloney could provide a much-needed presence for us. If he does pass the fitness test, and then actually turns up to play this time. Missing Sylvia as much as anyone in this context, and he's given a strong performance against Richmond so often in the past, but hopefully Jones will be able to fill that role this time, and he's been easily amongst our best so far this year, along with Trengove, Watts, Clark, Howe and Magner as I already mentioned.

Recent meetings between the teams have been free-flowing and high-scoring, and more of the same can be expected this time around.

The likes of Deledio, Cotchin and Martin will be hoping to run riot through the middle, while Jack Riewoldt will be eager to add to his tally of four goals this season.

I don't have any concrete reasons to think we'll win this, but somehow I've got a strong feeling about it.

Demons by 10

 

[Wonaeamirri33]

Richmond preview - courtesy of Tugga

To say that both teams need to win this is an understatement.

Once again the hype over Richmond and Melbourne during the preseason has fizzled into a mere flicker after both copping rounds 1 and 2 losses.

Melbourne looked good in the first half against Brisbane, before shutting up the shop early. Against West Coast in Perth, it was a flogging.

Richmond was within a kick halfway through the final quarter against Carlton, but surrended meekly. Against Collingwood, the final margin was 21 points, but the result never really looked in doubt from the outset.

So whose form is better for the want of a 'better' word: Melbourne won't be the only side to be slaughtered by the mountains of men from the west. The Tigers have played two top 4 contenders. I still believe both sides' lists are very similar.

Richmond have had many of their regarded players well down on form so far. Jack Riewoldt, while kicking 4 in round 1, was bitterly disappointing against the Pies. Add to this that James Frawley relishes playing against the Red Roo and it's a mouth-watering contest. Tyrone Vickery has been woefully poor - indeed the battle between he and Jared Rivers will be worth watching for all the wrong reasons. Dustin Martin just plodding along.

Melbourne's woes have been similar. Brad Green's output has not been good enough. More has also been expected of big ruckman Mark Jamar.

Things haven't been all bad however.

For the Tigers, Ivan Maric has been a breath of fresh air in a position where the side has been disgustingly poor, Trent Cotchin has been a lone hand in the midfield and Alex Rance continues to improve at a rapid rate.

Young Melbourne gun Jack Trengove has future star written all over him, mature-aged recruit James Magner adds grunt and class and Mitch Clark justified the hype last week with a lone hand of 5 goals.

So how of Melbourne's poor form can be justified by the new coach's game plan and structure? Too early to say, but it would have had some impact. Neeld gave every indication that would recall Aaron Davey to the side, which suggests he may have a different role for him against the Tigers. Maybe a run-with job?

Fortunately for Richmond, Colin Sylvia is still missing, which means he won't be able to perform his annual demolition job. Perhaps Nathan Jones can step in his absence? His form against the Eagles was decent.

So where will this game be won and lost? It's all too easy to say the midfield, but I don't believe it to be the case this week.

If Frawley beats Riewoldt, Rivers beats Vickery and Miller is held to one or two, Melbourne win.

Similarly, if Rance or Grimes can nullify Clark, then I can't see Melbourne scoring enough goals, unless Jurrah comes back in and terrorises the Richmond defence, like he usually does.

Both coaches are under pressure to drop leadership veterans.

Neeld must make the call on Green and Hardwick will be forced to decide on the immediate future of Daniel Jackson. Back them for one more week, or set the standard and make the tough call? In the case of Jackson, it is an easy call. His form has been diabolical. If Jackson plays, Richmond go into the game with 21 players.

Melbourne's best chance of a win rests with the ability to pressure the ball carrier into making mistakes. Players such as Grigg, Houli, Newman, Morris to name just a few do tend to panic when pressured and are not allowed room to the move football quickly.

This is where Neeld must insist his players take a risk in sacrificing the possibility of leaving their own man to force a mistake at the first direct contest. Risky, but against a team like Richmond, it could be a winning formula.

Richmond have also been poor at scoring from centre bounces. This is where calls to omit Jamar must be ignored and the Melbourne mids must be prepared to put in the fight of their lives to clear the ball first from the centre square. Jamar represents Melbourne's best chance to combat Richmond's prize recruit in Ivan Maric, who has performed beyond all expectations. Statistics show that Richmond's defence doesn't like the ball coming in quickly (what defence does like that?).

I am tipping a close game.

Melbourne will turn up to play. Similarly Richmond has much to play for. With games against Geelong at Simmonds and West Coast at Etihad to come, a loss here could spell a 0-5 start and effectively season over.

I won't make a tip as far as a winning side and margin in concerned. But I expect an absorbing contest than neutral commentators will no doubt fob off as a comedy show put on my two struggling sides.

But if one is prepared to go to the MCG on Saturday and actually watch the game proplery, he/she will be rewarded with a close contest by two sides who are as desperate for the four points as each other.

(failing all that, I will be there and will be getting my drink on just in case it is a comical farce after all)

 

[tasmanlvr]

As I said in the changes thread, I had a good look at Richmond on Saturday night, electing to go to the game against Collingwood sitting on level three.

It is painfully obvious when they have the ball that they want to run it out, especially out of defence. They did well in some facets getting a man ahead of the ball and finding space but disposal let them down. If we can pressure them into mistakes, we can win. They looked decent in the first half last week, but they were shocking in the second half and only came back when Collingwood took their foot off the pedal (at least so it seemed).

I reckon if we negate their game plan we can win.

 

[Crimson Azure]

Good work W33 & thanks for your input too tugga.

 

[RandB]

When was the last time the tuggers started at $1.26 against us.

Nice work btw W33.

 

[Samsara]

Both really good previews. Always enjoy reading a good preview to the game that is fair and balanced.

 

[Greggy]

Will be interesting to see how Clark goes this week, he's never really performed well against us in the past. Looking forward to the midfield battle, do you think McKenzie will get the role on Cotchin again? Jackson if he plays should go to Trengove or Magner, depending who's having the most influence.

Never confidant, but we should get over the line.

 

[SuburbanMe]

Nice reviews! Thx W33! Thx Tugga!

Where's the lists though? I can't see them on the site anywhere, normally they're out by now.

 

[CowboyFromHell]

Nice reviews! Thx W33! Thx Tugga!

Where's the lists though? I can't see them on the site anywhere, normally they're out by now.

They release them around 6:30pm now to co-incide with a 'teams' show on Fox Footy... I think that's it anyway. It's annoying have to wait the extra 90 minutes though.

 

[fushy]

Nice reviews! Thx W33! Thx Tugga!

Where's the lists though? I can't see them on the site anywhere, normally they're out by now.

this year the lists are not released until the channel 7 news is over(they get first dibs)

 

[SuburbanMe]

this year the lists are not released until the channel 7 news is over(they get first dibs)

Ahh - that explains it. Thx for the heads up!

 

[Logger]

McKenzie's out of favour on this board for lacking match conditioning after an interrupted preseason (again!)

Bail and Bartram are our other tagging options if Jordie gets sent to Casey to get some more fitness into his legs, though both are also on shakey ground as far as selection goes.

If I'm reading this right, the Tiges are playing on at every opportunity and using a hyper-aggressive gameplan... if we sacked Bailey half a year before Baileyball is discovered to be the next big thing gameplan-wise I'm not going to be impressed!

 

[CowboyFromHell]

McKenzie's out of favour on this board for lacking match conditioning after an interrupted preseason (again!)

Bail and Bartram are our other tagging options if Jordie gets sent to Casey to get some more fitness into his legs, though both are also on shakey ground as far as selection goes.

If I'm reading this right, the Tiges are playing on at every opportunity and using a hyper-aggressive gameplan... if we sacked Bailey half a year before Baileyball is discovered to be the next big thing gameplan-wise I'm not going to be impressed!

But their game plan hasn't exactly worked for them yet. Everyone is down on us at the moment, and rightly so, but Ninthmond haven't looked all that flash either. If we can shut down sook Riewoldt then we go a long way to winning the game.

 

[Bluelegs]

As I said in the changes thread, I had a good look at Richmond on Saturday night, electing to go to the game against Collingwood sitting on level three.

It is painfully obvious when they have the ball that they want to run it out, especially out of defence. They did well in some facets getting a man ahead of the ball and finding space but disposal let them down. If we can pressure them into mistakes, we can win. They looked decent in the first half last week, but they were shocking in the second half and only came back when Collingwood took their foot off the pedal (at least so it seemed).

I reckon if we negate their game plan we can win.

Isn't that how we beat them last year?

 

[tugga]

Demons at $4 for the win head to head.
That is just madness. Might have a sneaky just to ease some of the pain if we get rolled.

 

[syl]

Teams out:

B: James Frawley, James Sellar, Clint Bartram
HB: Tom McDonald, Jared Rivers, Colin Garland
C: Rohan Bail, Jack Grimes, Nathan Jones
HF: Cale Morton, Jack Watts, Jeremy Howe
F: Matthew Bate, Mitch Clark, Aaron Davey
FOLL: Mark Jamar, James Magner, Jack Trengove
I/C: Jordie McKenzie, Luke Tapscott, Stef Martin, Lynden Dunn
EMG: Brad Green, Jack Fitzpatrick, Joel Macdonald
IN: Davey, Morton, Tapscott, Martin
OUT: Green, Macdonald, Ricky Petterd, Jamie Bennell

Did not see that coming...

 

[lanky_wes]

Out: green, petterd, bennell, MacDonald

In: Davey, tapscott, Martin, Morton

 

[whelan=legend]

Would rather Petterd over Davey/ Morton

 

[CowboyFromHell]

Would rather Petterd over Davey/ Morton

I think Morton deserves a crack and Flash gets another chance. Petterd has done next to nothing for us so far this season, although I would probably prefer him to Dunn.

Good to see Bate named in the 18, let's hope he can impress.

 

[Bluelegs]

Petterd has done next to nothing for us so far this season

It's like he wasn't even playing when we played Brisbane!

 

[Demon JP]

petterd a bit unlucky, but I spose he was a bit under done, and needs a game or two at casey

 

[syl]

It's like he wasn't even playing when we played Brisbane!

Hardly seen him all year TBH. But that goes with our entire half forward flank brigade bar Howe.

 

[CowboyFromHell]

It's like he wasn't even playing when we played Brisbane!

I'm talking NAB Cup also. That's part of the season as far as I'm concerned.

 

[Crimson Azure]

I know everyone will know but we can use our memberships to get into this game.

http://www.melbournefc.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/7415/newsid/132722/default.aspx

 

[ThePuppetMaster]

Will be interesting to see how Clark goes this week, he's never really performed well against us in the past. Looking forward to the midfield battle, do you think McKenzie will get the role on Cotchin again? Jackson if he plays should go to Trengove or Magner, depending who's having the most influence.

Never confidant, but we should get over the line.

Jesus.

That would be like tagging Brad Sewell or Daniel Cross.

Not worth it.