Preview Geelong v St Kilda Sat Aug 19 725pm @ Marvel

[Mr Meow]

I think it's more an indication that even our mediocrity isn't enough to see us blown away in too many games than anything else. Rather than believing that we'll turn it around from here with some better luck, I can just imagine us going on to lose (if/when we do) by another relatively small margin.

Scott teams just don't really get belted. It's a creditable trait, for sure. But I don't see it propelling this team in its current form to the last couple of weeks of the finals in 2023.

Fitness, skill or luck: there's no denying that there have been many winnable situations that we haven't capitalised on this year. I can't remember a season with as many close losses.

You'd expect a better return than 1 draw and 7 losses from 8 last quarters where we were:

-Up by 6 points
-Behind by 10 points
-Behind by 5 points
-Behind by 2 points
-Up by 8 points
-Behind by 11 points
-Up by 9 points
-Behind by 11 points

4 wins from those 8 (not unreasonable) and we'd be in the top 4 or half a game out.

Mean reversion on the close ones hit the Pies in finals last year. It can very easily swing.

 

[TheCatStevensExperience]

Fitness, skill or luck: there's no denying that there have been many winnable situations that we haven't capitalised on this year. I can't remember a season with as many close losses.

You'd expect a better return than 1 draw and 7 losses from 8 last quarters where we were:

-Up by 6 points
-Behind by 10 points
-Behind by 5 points
-Behind by 2 points
-Up by 8 points
-Behind by 11 points
-Up by 9 points
-Behind by 11 points

4 wins from those 8 (not unreasonable) and we'd be in the top 4 or half a game out.

Mean reversion on the close ones hit the Pies in finals last year. It can very easily swing.

Yeah it's an interesting thing to look into, I reckon. I think the same fate awaits Collingwood, particularly if they come up against a hardened midfield like Melbourne or Carlton.

 

[Gee Class Loco]

He'd only played one VFL game (I believe on managed minutes), then had a week off. Bluntly put, he's not elite enough to be picked off the back of just that lead-in.

He was right to go and our only defender who can play on small quicks with any success.
He's an automatic back 6 selection IMO.

 

[Mr Meow]

Yeah it's an interesting thing to look into, I reckon. I think the same fate awaits Collingwood, particularly if they come up against a hardened midfield like Melbourne or Carlton.

It would suggest that Collingwood, Brisbane and Port are not really a stronger group than Melbourne, Carlton, Bulldogs, Adelaide and Geelong. A lot of positions could easily have been flipped.

This year has felt incredibly even so that doesn't surprise me.

 

[Gee Class Loco]

We'll have to get it out of the middle first and with Neale as the ruckman and an average midfield it'll be tough.

Parfitt/Conway - at least one should have played for O'connor.

Conway should have played at the expense of Neale or even had Neale as sub.

Neale isn't a ruckman.

He is/was actually... U/18 ruckman come forward. Average around 20 tap outs a game.
Better than some give him credit for. He'll do well.

 

[And_ROOS]

I reckon this is a stamp our authority game, we'll win by about 47pts and then we'll drop the game next week after getting everyones hopes up.

I am more worried its the opposite, just like 2015 where we needed to win our last 2 games of the year to sneak into the top 8 and we lost against Collingwood in our second last game before beating Adelaide in the last game of the season.

Because if we lose to the Saints, I wonder if we hear a few more retirements announced and then we give them a send off game when really, if we lose to the Saints I want us to play as many of our kids as possible.
Give games to Foster, Riccardi, Clohesy, Conway, Whyte, Knevitt, Dempsey. Whichever of the kids are healthy throw them in. People who might say their VFL form might not earn them a game when our AFL team is in this position because we have had guys in the AFL team well out of form who haven't been dropped.
If its a dead rubber game, whats the harm? Give them a run against a decent bulldogs team. Rather we learn something knew about them than to learn nothing from guys like Tuohy, O'Connor, etc.

 

[Mr Meow]

I am more worried its the opposite, just like 2015 where we needed to win our last 2 games of the year to sneak into the top 8 and we lost against Collingwood in our second last game before beating Adelaide in the last game of the season.

Because if we lose to the Saints, I wonder if we hear a few more retirements announced and then we give them a send off game when really, if we lose to the Saints I want us to play as many of our kids as possible.
Give games to Foster, Riccardi, Clohesy, Conway, Whyte, Knevitt, Dempsey. Whichever of the kids are healthy throw them in. People who might say their VFL form might not earn them a game when our AFL team is in this position because we have had guys in the AFL team well out of form who haven't been dropped.
If its a dead rubber game, whats the harm? Give them a run against a decent bulldogs team. Rather we learn something knew about them than to learn nothing from guys like Tuohy, O'Connor, etc.

That's really harsh on Tuohy and Smith, who deserve a send off game if that eventuates.

I highly doubt anyone else is going to pull the plug simply from us not playing finals this season.

We've had premature obituaries almost every preview thread since round 3. Let's wait till our season is actually over, yeah?

 

[And_ROOS]

Yeah it's an interesting thing to look into, I reckon. I think the same fate awaits Collingwood, particularly if they come up against a hardened midfield like Melbourne or Carlton.

Worst case scenario for the Pies in my opinion is if the ladder finishes as it is now, they have an MCG final against Melbourne, who have a strong enough midfield and defense to match them.

And then should they lose, they face either Brisbane or Port in an away final where their meathead fans can't make enough noise to get the umpires to look after them. Could absolutely see the Pies going out after going L/W/L again in finals just as they did last season.

 

[And_ROOS]

That's really harsh on Tuohy and Smith, who deserve a send off game if that eventuates.

I highly doubt anyone else is going to pull the plug simply from us not playing finals this season.

We've had premature obituaries almost every preview thread since round 3. Let's wait till our season is actually over, yeah?

If its just Smith retiring he will play, if Tuohy isn't retiring I would leave him out the last game.

 

[Mr Meow]

Worst case scenario for the Pies in my opinion is if the ladder finishes as it is now, they have an MCG final against Melbourne, who have a strong enough midfield and defense to match them.

And then should they lose, they face either Brisbane or Port in an away final where their meathead fans can't make enough noise to get the umpires to look after them. Could absolutely see the Pies going out after going L/W/L again in finals just as they did last season.

Potentially Carlton on an 11 game winning streak in a SF if Collingwood lose week 1 too.

 

[Mr Meow]

If its just Smith retiring he will play, if Tuohy isn't retiring I would leave him out the last game.

I'm very, very confident that Tuohy will pull the plug no matter what happens.

 

[And_ROOS]

Potentially Carlton on an 11 game winning streak in a SF if Collingwood lose week 1 too.

God BF would ******* crash for like 4 days if the Pies lost to Carlton in the SF.

I'm very, very confident that Tuohy will pull the plug no matter what happens.

I suspect you are right. Would think its Smith, Tuohy, Ceglar who retire. Wonder what happens with Menegola, missed a flag last year, injured and hasn't got a look in this season.

Anyway, back onto this match. If Danger and Cameron beast mode like they did last week we will win. The issue is that Wilkie has a great record on Cameron. Do we think Hawkins is a late out? Any clue on who the sub will be?

 

[moond0g]

Given how few of our mids have tallied numbers like that at all throughout the entire season, I would be staggered if any of that trio would come in and provide that output in this game. So if we're not going to accumulate huge numbers from any of the players we push through the midfield, I'd prefer to make sure that at least one of their smalls doesn't have an armchair ride to torching us in front of goal. Hill was given acres in our last game, and we certainly got punished on the scoreboard as a result.

I agree our mids haven't shown an ability to rack up high possession counts all year, which has been a bit of an issue. But rather than have players like Stewart, Close, Stengle, O'Connor etc. attend centre bounces like we have recently, I'd personally rather they play in the positions they're best at and we pick an extra midfielder.

This doesn't mean we can't also have someone locking down a small, they're not mutually exclusive.

 

[CHAWKTS]

I am more worried its the opposite, just like 2015 where we needed to win our last 2 games of the year to sneak into the top 8 and we lost against Collingwood in our second last game before beating Adelaide in the last game of the season.

Because if we lose to the Saints, I wonder if we hear a few more retirements announced and then we give them a send off game when really, if we lose to the Saints I want us to play as many of our kids as possible.
Give games to Foster, Riccardi, Clohesy, Conway, Whyte, Knevitt, Dempsey. Whichever of the kids are healthy throw them in. People who might say their VFL form might not earn them a game when our AFL team is in this position because we have had guys in the AFL team well out of form who haven't been dropped.
If its a dead rubber game, whats the harm? Give them a run against a decent bulldogs team. Rather we learn something knew about them than to learn nothing from guys like Tuohy, O'Connor, etc.

If we lose to St Kilda I agree we will see a few new faces. However that will be balanced against some retirement games so it would be interesting to see who they rest the last game…

But I don’t think they will/should play all of the “kids”. It needs to be a little merit based (not just form/skill but effort/attitude)…

Dempsey and Knevitt definite ins (if we are out of finals) and Conway a definite debut (leave Stanly out for last game). I would also bring in Clohesy for a debut as he has been consistently good in VFL for the year and would be nice reward.

Beyond that they have a choice to play Mullin and Whyte as well if they want to keep them happy.

But that is a lot of ins if they do them all 4-6…and I wouldn’t do the same for Foster/Riccardi personally

 

[goyoucatters]

Fitness, skill or luck: there's no denying that there have been many winnable situations that we haven't capitalised on this year. I can't remember a season with as many close losses.

You'd expect a better return than 1 draw and 7 losses from 8 last quarters where we were:

-Up by 6 points
-Behind by 10 points
-Behind by 5 points
-Behind by 2 points
-Up by 8 points
-Behind by 11 points
-Up by 9 points
-Behind by 11 points

4 wins from those 8 (not unreasonable) and we'd be in the top 4 or half a game out.

Mean reversion on the close ones hit the Pies in finals last year. It can very easily swing.

The margins are there or thereabouts, I agree. But the context of those games doesn't really support the view that we could have expected to win even half of them.

Coll Rd 1
Absolutely overrun in the last. In front momentarily at the start of the quarter. Never in it after that.

Carl Rd 2
Well down at 3QT. Needed a lot to go right when starting from there. Bowes' miss cruelled all our momentum.

GC Rd 3
Well and truly outclassed over the course of the last quarter. The longer it went, the further behind we were getting.

GWS Rd 11
Well down at 3QT. Almost inevitably conceded some soft goals against the run of play to confirm the loss our 'performance' merited.

Syd Rd 16
Turned into an utterly turgid raffle. Should have been further in front in the last, and were then damn lucky to avoid a loss at the death.

Bris Rd 19
Thumped in footy terms for almost three entire quarters before turning up late. Not a strategy that wins you many games at all.

Freo Rd 20
Having kicked two goals in three minutes at the start of the last, we should have gone on with it. As it was, they then made the running (and got the goals) to ice the game.

Coll Rd 22
Well down at 3QT. Storming home but bad kicking at goal stifled momentum. And two of our goals in the game were clear umpiring errors as well, so probably closer than we were entitled to be late on.

At best, I'd say we might have felt entitled to pick up one extra win, on the balance of play in those matches. But we could have easily dropped the two points we picked up from the Swans game as well, given how much of a coin-flip that atrocious exhibition became. So, as I've said before, I think we're where we are in 2023 because that's pretty much who we are. I believe injuries, execution, fitness and the hunger factor have hurt us much more than the bounce of the ball in tight matches this year.

 

[Mr Meow]

The margins are there or thereabouts, I agree. But the context of those games doesn't really support the view that we could have expected to win even half of them.

Coll Rd 1
Absolutely overrun in the last. In front momentarily at the start of the quarter. Never in it after that.

Carl Rd 2
Well down at 3QT. Needed a lot to go right when starting from there. Bowes' miss cruelled all our momentum.

GC Rd 3
Well and truly outclassed over the course of the last quarter. The longer it went, the further behind we were getting.

GWS Rd 11
Well down at 3QT. Almost inevitably conceded some soft goals against the run of play to confirm the loss our 'performance' merited.

Syd Rd 16
Turned into an utterly turgid raffle. Should have been further in front in the last, and were then damn lucky to avoid a loss at the death.

Bris Rd 19
Thumped in footy terms for almost three entire quarters before turning up late. Not a strategy that wins you many games at all.

Freo Rd 20
Having kicked two goals in three minutes at the start of the last, we should have gone on with it. As it was, they then made the running (and got the goals) to ice the game.

Coll Rd 22
Well down at 3QT. Storming home but bad kicking at goal stifled momentum. And two of our goals in the game were clear umpiring errors as well, so probably closer than we were entitled to be late on.

At best, I'd say we might have felt entitled to pick up one extra win, on the balance of play in those matches. But we could have easily dropped the two points we picked up from the Swans game as well, given how much of a coin-flip that atrocious exhibition became. So, as I've said before, I think we're where we are in 2023 because that's pretty much who we are. I believe injuries, execution, fitness and the hunger factor have hurt us much more than the bounce of the ball in tight matches this year.

Definitely should have won the 2 home games and held on in the Sydney game from the positions we were in.

In former years we'd also have landed one of the comebacks.

 

[goyoucatters]

Definitely should have won the 2 home games and held on in the Sydney game from the positions we were in.

In former years we'd also have landed one of the comebacks.

I agree about the 'in former years' qualification. Fact is that this year's line-up didn't really deserve to get anything out of any of those games, apart from the one in which we managed a draw. This is truly who we've been in 2023.

 

[Mr Meow]

I agree about the 'in former years' qualification. Fact is that this year's line-up didn't really deserve to get anything out of any of those games, apart from the one in which we scraped a draw. This is truly who we've been in 2023.

Maybe, maybe not. They're all opinions, not fact, so let's respect each others view.

We're about to find out exactly who we are in 2023.

 

[goyoucatters]

Maybe, maybe not. They're all opinions, not fact, so let's respect each others view.

We're about to find out exactly who we are in 2023.

Maybe, maybe not.

We're at least just as likely to frank exactly who we've already been throughout 2023.

 

[Mr Meow]

Maybe, maybe not.

We're at least just as likely to frank exactly who we've already been throughout 2023.

Sounds good. Let's reflect on this later.

 

[goyoucatters]

I agree our mids haven't shown an ability to rack up high possession counts all year, which has been a bit of an issue. But rather than have players like Stewart, Close, Stengle, O'Connor etc. attend centre bounces like we have recently, I'd personally rather they play in the positions they're best at and we pick an extra midfielder.

This doesn't mean we can't also have someone locking down a small, they're not mutually exclusive.

Fair enough, But if you believe as I do that Jed is by a street our best lockdown defender, you have to either accept the current mids set-up or potentially eliminate one of the players you mention here (obviously not Stewart) in favour of the dedicated mid you're seeking to add.

So I'm happier to go with the midfield group that didn't entirely embarrass itself last week and add some demonstrated ability to defend the opposition's dangerous small forwards. I do accept it's probably a relatively marginal call in either direction.

 

[Goggin Our Best]

I liked what i saw from Neale against Coll

Alot of players get talked up to the Cows come home on this board

But i think Neale with be a good player for Geel - i like how he moves

 

[TheCatStevensExperience]

Worst case scenario for the Pies in my opinion is if the ladder finishes as it is now, they have an MCG final against Melbourne, who have a strong enough midfield and defense to match them.

And then should they lose, they face either Brisbane or Port in an away final where their meathead fans can't make enough noise to get the umpires to look after them. Could absolutely see the Pies going out after going L/W/L again in finals just as they did last season.

Collingwood vs the "True" Magpies would be great

 

[Hinkley29]

I think for anyone who has watched a bit of VFL footy this year, there would be some strong debate on that point you've made.

Neale is not an AFL standard ruck, and whilst Conway has missed a big chunk of footy, it should also be remembered that they took a very conservative approach with his return. He came back and played two very solid games that got the coaches attention, and only missed last week due to a rolled ankle at training.

I watched both his games and he was a class above in terms of pure ruck craft, and his follow up efforts when the ball was on the ground. Very close resemblance to Tim English.

That is all well and good, but the fact remains that Conway has zero game time to his name, and Neale at least has some.

Putting Conway into this game ahead of Neale would be madness at best and malpractice at worst.

 

[Lana]

Neale's follow up the stoppages was really good for someone with as little exposure to the ruck role. If Conway can't get his body right then Neale has the attributes to develop into the next Stanley. Same size, same strong athletic profile.