Traded Hayden Crozier [traded to Bulldogs]

[Purpellian Anchor]

BS, how close were the points in the Hawks/Saints pick swaps last trade period.


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for heavens sake.....was a general statement based on many deals done not an infallible one " often" was the word used.

 

[eagle eyed]

for heavens sake.....was a general statement based on many deals done not an infallible one " often" was the word used.

It was a generalisation; points are just a way for punters to justify their fantasy trade proposals. My question was a legitimate one; if Crozier is worth a pick in the 40's why would the dogs give up their 2nd and lose access to a kid when then they could just trade their 3rd?


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[Purpellian Anchor]

It was a generalisation; points are just a way for punters to justify their fantasy trade proposals. My question was a legitimate one; if Crozier is worth a pick in the 40's why would the dogs give up their 2nd and lose access to a kid when then they could just trade their 3rd?


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Yes this very question is one Im surprised does not get discussed at length. Freo's strategy has identified as has many clubs that there is more value trading in a player than relying on draft picks. I pointed out on another thread some time ago the figures going back to 2009 to say 2013 show a falling percentage from 2 out of three success to 1 out of three success for players (from the draft) still playing with a club after the first 3-4 years then after 7-8 years. If a player has got 60 to 70 games under his belt in the first 4-5 years he is more likely to go on (subject to injury).

 

[DaveLister]

Interesting one for Freo fans - pick 9 and 26 for 5 and Crozier?

Our list manager has made it clear that the way they see it there is a top 7 in the draft, this was before Bonar really had a chance to show his stuff but I don't think we'd be keen to drop to 9 in the draft.

 

[Cobbler]

Interesting one for Freo fans - pick 9 and 26 for 5 and Crozier?

Would do in a heartbeat. Allows 26 to go to GWS for Wilson.

Not sure why Dogs would do it? Obviously slide up, but you'd want to target someone specific.

Also want to be confident of decent compo for Stringer.

All else being equal I'd do it.

Especially if the talk is we're targeting Hayes. Confident he last to 9. Naughton as plan B or some mid slider like Higgins or Coffield.

 

[Bemoreboyddog]

Our list manager has made it clear that the way they see it there is a top 7 in the draft, this was before Bonar really had a chance to show his stuff but I don't think we'd be keen to drop to 9 in the draft.

I thought there’s a top 4-5 and drops after that, however none of the top 4-5 are WA boys and was thinking Freo might be slightly worried about investing so much in someone who could depart after a few years because he’s homesick.

 

[Bemoreboyddog]

Would do in a heartbeat. Allows 26 to go to GWS for Wilson.

Not sure why Dogs would do it? Obviously slide up, but you'd want to target someone specific.

Also want to be confident of decent compo for Stringer.

All else being equal I'd do it.

Especially if the talk is we're targeting Hayes. Confident he last to 9. Naughton as plan B or some mid slider like Higgins or Coffield.

I think dogs might look at it, as you say may depend on a Stringer compo. Dogs need some more class and it might not be there after pick 4-5.

 

[VogonProsthetnic]

What about 9 and 11 for5. That’s assuming who you would take at 5 will be around at 9.

 

[go_the_dockers]

What about 9 and 11 for5. That’s assuming who you would take at 5 will be around at 9.

I would do that.

 

[DaveLister]

I thought there’s a top 4-5 and drops after that, however none of the top 4-5 are WA boys and was thinking Freo might be slightly worried about investing so much in someone who could depart after a few years because he’s homesick.

There being a top 4-5 doesn't really help sell the idea of trading down.
It's a case by case basis, each player would have an assessed likelihood of leaving given a number of specific circumstances and even with the most likely leavers at some point the in the draft that risk is worth taking. We haven't shied away from drafting players from other states and when it comes to the first round drafting anything other than best available (which takes into account everything including leaving likelihood) is foolish.
If there is a clear top 7 then the cost of dropping to 9 is much more than the numerical methods suggest.

 

[Cobbler]

What about 9 and 11 for5. That’s assuming who you would take at 5 will be around at 9.

That's obviously a huge win.

I'd personally do 5 for 12 and 18.
5 and Crozier for 9 and 26.

Some quick maths. Basically double the lower pick + add the lower pick in a 2 picks for 1 trade.

Example 5 for 10 and 15
9 for 18 and 27.

I just made that up, but about how iWork it out quickly.

 

[VogonProsthetnic]

Just the way our numbers are looking. If Stringer goes we can keep Crameri. Not sure though if we also get Crozier and Impy ( on top of Trengove). We would also like to keep a Honeychurch if we could. Not sure about the maths depends on which players are looking at in the draft but would be surprised if club wasn’t considering it

 

[Bemoreboyddog]

There being a top 4-5 doesn't really help sell the idea of trading down.
It's a case by case basis, each player would have an assessed likelihood of leaving given a number of specific circumstances and even with the most likely leavers at some point the in the draft that risk is worth taking. We haven't shied away from drafting players from other states and when it comes to the first round drafting anything other than best available (which takes into account everything including leaving likelihood) is foolish.
If there is a clear top 7 then the cost of dropping to 9 is much more than the numerical methods suggest.

I guess in the end the question for you guys is do we sacrifice getting an elite player at 5, to get 2 good players with 9 and Wilson? Crozier is just steak knives.

 

[DaveLister]

I guess in the end the question for you guys is do we sacrifice getting an elite player at 5, to get 2 good players with 9 and Wilson? Crozier is just steak knives.

Wilson's trade doesn't rely on trading with the Bulldogs and I don't think 26 would get the Wilson trade done anyway.

 

[Bemoreboyddog]

Wilson's trade doesn't rely on trading with the Bulldogs and I don't think 26 would get the Wilson trade done anyway.

Never said it relied on it, I thought 26 would get it done, if not, wouldn’t need much more going GWS’ way.

Your next years 2nd alone would probably get it done but that poses another question, do you want to give up a pick next year?

 

[DaveLister]

Never said it relied on it, I thought 26 would get it done, if not, wouldn’t need much more going GWS’ way.

Your next years 2nd alone would probably get it done but that poses another question, do you want to give up a pick next year?

At this point with a couple of academy players and perhaps a father son coming through next year we will need points rather than picks outside the first round. The way that the Wilson trade has been talked about it seems to be an already agreed trade and given our current currency, the 2018 2nd is the most realistic trade scenario.

 

[eastfreo75]

I thought there’s a top 4-5 and drops after that, however none of the top 4-5 are WA boys and was thinking Freo might be slightly worried about investing so much in someone who could depart after a few years because he’s homesick.

I agree, totally many Vic Metro in the top 7.

I thinking that we could trade pick 5 this year for a first round pick next year.

What pick 5 and Crozier for your 2018 first round pick and pick 27 his year?



.

 

[Bemoreboyddog]

I agree, totally many Vic Metro in the top 7.

I thinking that we could trade pick 5 this year for a first round pick next year.

What pick 5 and Crozier for your 2018 first round pick and pick 27 his year?



.

I can’t see us giving up a pick next year because we have a highly rated father son to get in. That, our team is pretty unpredictable and the way next years draft is shaping has me very reluctant to part with anything over than next years 4th rounder.

 

[Purpellian Anchor]

I would do that.

me 2 do dat

 

[Flags_In_The_Bag]

thats a poor deal.... 58 and c for 26 about right = 33-4

Points mean crap when valuing a players worth

 

[Purpellian Anchor]

Wilson's trade doesn't rely on trading with the Bulldogs and I don't think 26 would get the Wilson trade done anyway.[/QUOTE

Points mean crap when valuing a players worth

so do picks

 

[Flags_In_The_Bag]

What about 9 and 11 for5. That’s assuming who you would take at 5 will be around at 9.

No way we do that

 

[Flags_In_The_Bag]

so do picks

So in most cases in you're eyes a pick 5 is most likely going to be the same level of player taken at 39?

 

[Purpellian Anchor]

So in most cases in you're eyes a pick 5 is most likely going to be the same level of player taken at 39?

give it a rest mate ...most clubs work points with the tradeing and pics, not in every case, but it can help the deals.
edit...?? i said no such thing...think we are commenting on different posts and points

 

[Cicatriz]

Crozier is worth roughly pick 60 odd. If he goes higher, it's a loss for the Dogs.