Asgardian
Bigfooty Jedi
If the Dogs can go all the way, so can we.
Prediction How far will we go in 2017?
- Thread starter DazalenkoUBewty
- Start date
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- Oct 8, 2004
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Latest odds have us 13th favorite at 34/1.
Reality.
http://www.bet.com.au/DisplayOddsComparison/50/AustralianRules/AFL-Premiership-Odds.html
Reality.
http://www.bet.com.au/DisplayOddsComparison/50/AustralianRules/AFL-Premiership-Odds.html
If you read main afl board thread on 2017 predictions you can count on 1 hand in 50+ pages people predicting port in top 8. Mind you some of the opinions are bordering on insanity.
DaTBird187
What D Farke?
- Feb 9, 2014
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The main board is just Bay 13 with better spelling.
Janus
Advocatus Diaboli
- Sep 9, 2007
- 23,357
- 57,133
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- Port Adelaide
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- Dallas Cowboys, Chicago Bulls
Yet the same people will happily say that a side that lost a multiple AA winning forward in Pavlich and is getting back a want-away Fyfe and a over-the-hill Sandilands will somehow bounce back into the top eight...yet us getting back Ryder, Hartlett, Monfries, Hombsch, Jonas, White and being able to play Trengove as a relief ruck instead of primary ruck will mean we tread water because Port is s**t.
These are the same people who have Adelaide as locks for top four, just because they went on a run that was similar to us in 2014 (with a laughably predictable ending that meant that they didn't go as far).
The same people who think that a side we smashed by 10 goals away from home when everyone was up and about, yet we were missing our number one ruck, will overtake us because they went on a mini run at the end of the year when all the other teams were tiring and we had just chased jumpers all day against Sydney.
The same people that have St.Kilda in the top eight purely because they've got a gameplan that is based around speed. Sounds ******* familiar - oh that's right, Richardson was a coach at Port for two years wasn't he?
What makes anyone believe that these teams won't be "found out" the way that Port Adelaide were in 2015, when they think it will just happen and it never does? Why won't opposition sides target them the way we've been targeted as some massive scalp by opposition coaches?
Some people think that an Essendon getting the grand total of 12 players back into a team that routinely got smashed by 10 goals every single week will somehow jump over us. Well, we are getting 6 players back - does that mean we will be a 5 goal better side? Why doesn't the returning players formula apply to us as it seems to apply to everyone else?
I'm of the opinion that no one wants to put Port in the top eight because a Port side that is good enough for finals is good enough to win the whole thing.
Here's some light reading for you to show just how stupid BigFooty is as a collective. From just after the 2006 GF:
https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2007-cup-back-to-victoria.272688/
https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2007-the-year-that.274861/page-2 (the first post by a Geelong fan is pretty much the only one that is on the money)
https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2007-premiership-odds-after-trade-period.277061/
https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/bombers-at-2-75-for-the-8.285984/
There's more but I think I've made my point - betting agencies and BigFooty have no clue what is going to happen the following year. They can only go on the data from the year before, and the data says we sucked last year. But there are reasons for that.
MrPortAdelaide
Club Legend
- Feb 26, 2016
- 1,679
- 2,009
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- Port Adelaide
im confident we can be amongst the best teams in the comp but im happy to fly under the radar, i cant see Boak, Wines, Wingard, Hartlett, Polec, and White playing any worse than they did last year,
add to that Ryder, Trengove in defence, Hombsch & Jonas playing full seasons,
Snelling Bonner, DBJ, Monfries, Austin, SPP & Atley adding depth and there is a lot of upside, but remember shhhh, keep it quite
add to that Ryder, Trengove in defence, Hombsch & Jonas playing full seasons,
Snelling Bonner, DBJ, Monfries, Austin, SPP & Atley adding depth and there is a lot of upside, but remember shhhh, keep it quite
- Jun 12, 2012
- 20,534
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- Port Adelaide
That's not reality, that's only an outline of what people think right now and the general level of analysis can be summarized as "Team X done good in the last few weeks of 2016, Team Y done not so good" and so on.
If we win our first three games we will absolutely fly into single digits and that won't necessarily be accurate either, but at least it will be based on something tangible.
Well said. The Essendon and Fremantle love is ludicrous. I just dont get the hype around Melbourne. And why people really think Collingwood will improve is hilarious. And FFS, the Adelaide hype makes me cringe. Every successful season relies on its mature and experienced players to be consistent and step up when needed. And having the younger talent progress and improve. Plus have some luck with injuries and getting their best team on park when it counts. I think Port's biggest challenge are themselves - the belief, the confidence and then consistency. I sense we have traded well to begin filling the holes with a playing group that can play finals. But 1) Ken needs to evolve his coaching style and game plan 2) we need our senior players to fire consistently and lead 3) our young group needs to take the next step. Unfortunately there are so many doubts but gee I cannot wait for us to prove the football world wrong and take the competition by the scruff of the neck. F*** em!
Picking a best 22 is tough. For the first time in ages it is really hard with new recruits and fingers crossed limited injuries. Depth looks good.
Our issue though is based around leadership- the individuals and the dynamic between them. Which 6 or so players will drive our structures and teach the younger players? And most of all stand up on game day? What coaching is going to put us one step ahead of the oppo?
I'd like a new look leadership group based on onfield performance.
I wouldn't mind a new skipper and a leadership overhaul. To be honest not sure who though? Boak was average last year. Ebert is off and on. Hartlett was even worse than Boak. Wines is too young, and doesn't look where he kicks. R Gray - don't think he wants it? Wingard - no? Ryder, not sure? Etc. no one seems right- This is what is holding us back...
Our success depends on having game changing leaders. Look at the good teams - swans/hawks/Geelong even freo. Their are multiple players who could be captain? Why not us?
So how far will we go? No idea
Our issue though is based around leadership- the individuals and the dynamic between them. Which 6 or so players will drive our structures and teach the younger players? And most of all stand up on game day? What coaching is going to put us one step ahead of the oppo?
I'd like a new look leadership group based on onfield performance.
I wouldn't mind a new skipper and a leadership overhaul. To be honest not sure who though? Boak was average last year. Ebert is off and on. Hartlett was even worse than Boak. Wines is too young, and doesn't look where he kicks. R Gray - don't think he wants it? Wingard - no? Ryder, not sure? Etc. no one seems right- This is what is holding us back...
Our success depends on having game changing leaders. Look at the good teams - swans/hawks/Geelong even freo. Their are multiple players who could be captain? Why not us?
So how far will we go? No idea
- Apr 16, 2014
- 10,378
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- Fremantle
Sorry I'm bored at work and just trawling the boards.
Every team says this, what makes Port any different?
Surely it's not about the best you do when you're up and about, but when the chips are down can your team still eek out a win? Does your gameplan standup consistently over the home and away season? Do you have adequate depth to cover the inevitable injuries?
Janus
Advocatus Diaboli
- Sep 9, 2007
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- Dallas Cowboys, Chicago Bulls
We won 10 games without the following:
1) our first ruck missing the entire season (Ryder)
2) our best defensive forward missing the entire season (Monfries)
3) our lead up forward missing half the season and never reaching his best during the second half (Schulz)
4) our best fast running midfielder missing the entire season (1 quarter doesn't count) (White)
5) our full back missing all but two games (Carlile)
6) our back up ruck missing the majority of the season (Lobbe)
7) our best third tall/back up full back missing half the season (Hombsch)
8) our best centre half back for the majority of the season because he had to ruck (Trengove)
9) our best lock down defender for half the season (Jonas)
10) our back up of the back up ruck/third tall for half the season (Howard)
We used 37 of the 42 players we had available by necessity. The only players on our main list who didn't get a game were Aidyn Johnson who was out for the year and Billy Frampton who is still developing. The others were Houston and Hewett on the rookie list. We gave the following players their debut in 2016:
Darcy Byrne-Jones
Dougal Howard
Logan Austin
Jesse Palmer
Will Snelling
Riley Bonner
Yet despite all of this, we only missed out on finals with losses to Carlton (2 points), Western Bulldogs (3 points), West Coast (8 points), Adelaide (15 points) and on top four with losses to Fremantle (17 points) and GWS (19 points).
So yeah, we have adequate depth. More than most sides, actually.
The only thing we didn't have was inside mids to support guys like Wines - but in Atley and Drew, we have that now. They don't need to be superstars, they just need to be the support act.
See you in R2.
- Apr 16, 2014
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Almost every team in the league could do up a list like that. You could hardly say you were the worst hit in the league for injuries.
A fairly rudimentary system by the AFL but your injuries and players missing were fairly run of the mill. Was Lobbe injured? Most of your board this year were calling for his head because he wasn't impacting the game (putting it nicely).
Again, most teams can say "if we didn't lose these games xxxx and these games xxxx we could have made finals" so not sure what point you're trying to make there.
So perhaps you didn't have adequate depth if injuries derailed your season like you say. You lost to Freo who were atrocious and most would say were hit worse by injuries.
Do you think your match committee will be putting Atley, Drew, SPP in round 1 against the likes of JPK, Hanners, Parker, Heeney, Jack? They would get monstered in the guts. Ollie does need some support but I doubt 1st year players are going to be the answer.
I watched quite a few of Port's game as my Brother-in-law is a Port man. From my limited observations I would say your structure was the greatest issue. So many times did I see Neade vs 3 defenders, poor bloke never had a chance. The doggies have a similar small forward line to you guys so your lack of height wasn't the issue.
- Nov 6, 2014
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Adding in our 4 suspensions if you include Krakouer, our situation was more dire than it appeared on looking at injury lists alone. Our good players didnt fire last year. There is a lot of improvement there too..we finished 10th , look where Freo finished. Yes there were issues with our game plan or structures too. I will compare the Crows here as in this 2 team town we are hugely aware of their season...What I find weird is how highly crows are rated when they had the best run with injuries I have seen with any team in a long time and only a one game suspension for one player. Their draw also did not turn out to be anywhere near as hard as initially thought. Yet they are said to have depth...how would you even know that? Their best players all fired at the same time. When comparing the season of the 2 teams I would say Port has much more improvement in them. We also have new mid / forwards coach so hopefully the entries there will improve
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Janus
Advocatus Diaboli
- Sep 9, 2007
- 23,357
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- Port Adelaide
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- Dallas Cowboys, Chicago Bulls
If you add Monfries (210 games) and Ryder (188 games) as "injuries", where does that place us on that ladder?
Most teams don't have an average winning margin of 50.1 points. Which was the second best in the completion with only GWS having better with 50.6.
We lost to Fremantle at Subiaco after playing the Bulldogs while you got to take it easy against Brisbane, with one of our players going off with an ACL and some woefully horrendous umpiring.
You see, there are injuries and there are injuries. If I could have sacrificed Broadbent, Neade, Young, Impey and Sam Gray to get back Ryder, Monfries, Hombsch, Jonas and White I would have done it in a second. Not because the first players are bad, but because the second players are more important to us and the way we want to play. We needed the ability to win clean clearances that Ryder gives us, the speed of White, the defensive steel of Jonas and Hombsch and the defensive mindset of Monfries to make it work.
That's why Neade was always caught with three defenders on him - it's easy to drop defenders back into the hole when the ball is moving out of congestion like treacle. The Dogs have the advantage of being setup with a lot of inside mids that are good at working in close so it doesn't effect them as much. That's why they are so good against a side like Sydney.
We don't want Atley/Drew and SPP to play to match it on the inside with the Swans - but to get us enough of the ball to expose them on the outside. Not every team has to play exactly the same way, despite the AFL obsession with contested possession.
- Mar 1, 2014
- 9,101
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- Port Adelaide
To me Kern is in a similar position career wise as Choco was during his last 3 or 4 seasons, when no amount of tweaking to his ring a ring a rosey game plan was ever going to bring sustained success.
The return of some very good players, and hopefully the inclusion of a couple of new hard nuts ( SPP and Atley? ) won't guarantee success without some decent structure, particularly for the midfield and the forward entries.
I have high hopes for the ruck/midfield group with the inclusion of Lade as coach, but have a wait and see policy for the forward set ups.
I expect the current administration will be a lot more ruthless with Kern if he can't get it right this season, than the previous admin was with Choco.
The return of some very good players, and hopefully the inclusion of a couple of new hard nuts ( SPP and Atley? ) won't guarantee success without some decent structure, particularly for the midfield and the forward entries.
I have high hopes for the ruck/midfield group with the inclusion of Lade as coach, but have a wait and see policy for the forward set ups.
I expect the current administration will be a lot more ruthless with Kern if he can't get it right this season, than the previous admin was with Choco.
Forzaport
Brownlow Medallist
We played most of 2016 without a ruck division and with our SANFL KPDs. We were OK with the loss of Schulz until someone landed on Dixon's ankle then we pretty much had no KPFs in the final 5 rounds.
For a team to lose as many talls as we did yet still remain competitive should be acknowledged. It also really pisses me off how much we wasted 2015.
For a team to lose as many talls as we did yet still remain competitive should be acknowledged. It also really pisses me off how much we wasted 2015.
- Oct 8, 2004
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- Port Adelaide
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Competitive with a poor skill level.
We have drafted and developed players from 2010-2014 without the ability to kick to position.
Maybe the 2015 + 2016 new players will genuinely improve our list.
We have drafted and developed players from 2010-2014 without the ability to kick to position.
Maybe the 2015 + 2016 new players will genuinely improve our list.
I'm not getting my hopes up. A lot of people are putting pressure on Ryder to save us, I remember him being our missing puzzle piece for a premiership just like Dixon was.
After the ordinary year of 2015, would have thought if we were a threat or close to the flag we would have seen a better result (effort is probably a better word) this year from the players. We didn't.
We did have an amazing improvement from 2012 to 2013 so anything is possible but I'm one of those you're only as good as your last game types. I'm expecting a tough grinding out wins kind of year seeing us finish around the 8th to 10th mark.
After the ordinary year of 2015, would have thought if we were a threat or close to the flag we would have seen a better result (effort is probably a better word) this year from the players. We didn't.
We did have an amazing improvement from 2012 to 2013 so anything is possible but I'm one of those you're only as good as your last game types. I'm expecting a tough grinding out wins kind of year seeing us finish around the 8th to 10th mark.
godmode hard to beat
Wanted to add to this thread but your post sums it up perfectly. We had a bad run of Key injuries and lost some close games which seeing first hand was due to not having a key defender (where Kennedy -WC and Redpath -WB) destroyed us due to having a guy like logan austin not being AFL ready yet marking them.
We had key position injuries and the Asada bans, then also had injuries to the back ups in lobbe and carlile. Our list does not bat deep so it clearly effected us.
On that note in 2013/2014 we had a good run of injuries and we played well. Having an unchanged 18-22 players each week does wonders, just ask the Crows over the past 2 years.
Now that we will get most players back, improvement of our younger players in young, impey, DBJ, Clurrey, Austin, Bonner and having Ryder (Im excited about him, dixon, wingard, young, grey, westhoff all rotating through our forward line) we have so many options structure and tactics wise. Add in Pittards inprovement and guys like boak, ebert and hammer can only improve from last year.
Im very excited heading into this year, we have a young team and if our draft crop this year turns out well, we will be good for while with Chad and Ollie leading us into that next list turn over.
I agree it wasn't the worst, but that list doesn't include Ryder and Monfries which adds up and moves us well into the top of that list.
Having an unchanged team helps with form, look at the Crows this year with the injury run, like us in 2013/2014.
DaTBird187
What D Farke?
- Feb 9, 2014
- 16,439
- 44,139
- AFL Club
- Port Adelaide
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- Liverpool, Boston Celtics
I dunno again about all the injury excuses
Hawks and Bulldogs just keep winning because of good structure and drills ahem coaching
Dont get me wrong I am the eternal optimist and also truly believe our list is good enough to go all the way
But I dont pay all this injury excusionism
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