Analysis How valuable were the picks we gave for JOM+Tom?

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Rain Man.. :)
Great reading!!
This needs to be wiped under the nose of Pelchen as to how a list is determined, not on a bias subjective opinion that is outdated... like from the 70s o_O

Chris Pelchen's only interest in this matter is that he is starting a new company called the STAR Network.

Sports Talent Assessment and Recruiting.

Simply put Graham Wright and Alastair Clarkson's ideas completely threaten his business model by advocating a far broader strategy to list management, talent identification, team building and premiership success than what his company is selling.

The same logic applies for the lower rung nitwits in media, like Cal Twomey, Adam Landsberger, Michael Warner et al; who in the absence of being anything or anyone meaningful with the world of AFL media, are consigned to scratching out an existence as bottom feeders - analysing the draft, TAC CUP or scouring night clubs trying to dig up scandals on players.

On occasion, someone of meaning will get sick, and they will get thrown a bone. When this happens they might get to write about increasing food prices at stadiums, the condition of the playing surface at Etihad or if they are really lucky are assigned a radio shift from 5-8 am on a Sunday morning to review the little league games.

You get my drift. They are nothing.

As an aside, do you ever wonder how they occupy their time between November and March?

It can't be media work, perhaps they work as Christmas staff at one of the retailers?

Wright and Clarkson are taking an intellectual dump on what they do for a living and these people don't like it. They are exposing them as charlatans, parasites and pretenders. They expose them as the weaker species who survive on the juices of superior animals.

Pelchin has no interest in understanding the broader strategy of the HFC, as it would be counter intuitive to what he is trying to sell.

I would even go so far to say, that he hopes that the new approach of the HFC fails. This would provide him with the platform to stand from the highest roof top, so he can trumpet his one dimensional product offering.

There's an old saying that no one knows what's going on in a marriage, except the two people in it; and the same goes for running football club.

Wright and Clarkson, might make mistakes, but they know what they are doing and would be completely across all the variables at play within the four walls at Hawthorn - beyond just the draft.

It is outstandingly arrogant for Pelchin and others to impose their philosophies whilst being consigned to the outside or more simply not knowing or understanding the strategy.

I think this is the reason the Pelican has been 'moved on', so many times.

He thinks his ideas are the biggest part of a clubs success and he the biggest player.

In the modern game he is an analogue player in a digital world.
 
you could make the argument even more simple....

in every draft period there are approx 100-120 players drafted in the AFL Draft and Rookie Drafts

on average 7-8 Champions are recruited each yr and on average 30-35 solid AFL Players are drafted, sure the odds are slightly better early, but even at best

Pick 1 is something like 25% Champion/60% Good/15% Dud ----- and then Picks devalue from there Pick 10 is approx 5% Champion/40% Good/ 55% Dud -----, so trading picks 14,23,36,48,66,74 ect and 1st rd next year (lets be generous and say Pick 10) for 2x Champions, even people with below average IQ can see the obvious, surely?..... obviously journos and opposition supporters cant or are not sold on O'Mearas potential, but even if they both turn out Good and not Champions its still a decent trade, i believe they will both most likely be Champions and that isnt me being a 1-eyed Hawk supporter, thats my true belief....

P.S. btw the AFL's Tomorrows Heroes group that they are promoting on the AFL site, i can guarantee over 60% of those "Young Stars" will not make it at the AFL level of football..... Tomorrows Heroes? more like over-hyped s**t stains
 
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you could make the argument even more simple....

in every draft period there are approx 100-120 players drafted in the AFL Draft and Rookie Drafts

on average 7-8 Champions are recruited each yr and on average 30-35 solid AFL Players are drafted, sure the odds are slightly better early, but even at best

Pick 1 is something like 25% Champion/60% Good/15% Dud ----- and then Picks devalue from there Pick 10 is approx 5% Champion/40% Good/ 55% Dud -----, so trading picks 14,23,36,48,66,74 ect and 1st rd next year (lets be generous and say Pick 10) for 2x Champions, even people with below average IQ can see the obvious, surely?..... obviously journos and opposition supporters cant or are not sold on O'Mearas potential, but even if they both turn out Good and not Champions its still a decent trade, i believe they will both most likely be Champions and that isnt me being a 1-eyed Hawk supporter, thats my true belief....

P.S. btw the AFL's Tomorrows Heroes group that they are promoting on the AFL site, i can guarantee over 60% of those "Young Stars" will not make it at the AFL level of football..... Tomorrows Heroes? more like over-hyped s**t stains

What sort of level do you describe as a Champion ?
 
Glad someone took the time for this. Draft picks are lottery tickets, we built our three-peat on the back of trading lottery tickets for know quantity players.

I suspect most clubs know this but are perhaps worried by fan backlash? All it takes is for you to give up the pick 20-odd that someone like Fyfe gets taken with and your fans revolt, but in the long run you are almost certain to come out ahead.

They have to sell the dream, bring the fans along for the ride, as those clubs just don't have the currency to bring in a couple of stars given everyone has had to go sloppy seconds on the draft due to the GCS/GWS lockout over the last 5 years.
 
This is a great post
It really sums up our coaches' and recruiters' philosophy
I couldn't believe Pelchen's tight mouthed spiel about cumulative points and deficits which painted us as risk takers and bad judges.
What nonesense.
We've picked up 2 absolute A graders who'll play for 8 years plus.
One of them may well be the best in the next decade.
Will certainly monitor over ththe next few years the players taken with the picks we traded
 
Warning: Long post ahead, hopefully it makes sense! There's a TL;DR at the bottom

There's been a lot of talk in the media about how we've sold our future to get Tom Mitchell and Jaeger O'Meara, so i thought i'd have a look at the picks we gave up for them and what kind of players have historically been taken with those picks.

For each of the picks we gave up, i looked at the player taken at that pick for the 2001-2015 drafts and grouped them based on my own opinion into either star, solid player, bust, or yet to be determined. Some players are obviously borderline for two groups, so i've tended to put them in the higher one, so that the number of stars are over represented rather than under.




I'm gonna look at the 2016 picks we gave up first, as the 2017 ones are a bit more messy due to being future picks.

Firstly, the pick 14 we gave up for Tom Mitchell:

Pick 14: Ashley Watson, Daniel Bell, Fergus Watts, Angus Monfries, Grant Birchall, James Sellar, Jack Grimes, Ayce Cordy (F/S), Lewis Jetta, Brodie Smith, Devon Smith, Aidan Corr, Cam McCarthy, Jake Lever, and Eric Hipwood

5 busts, 3 solid players, and 2 stars. That means pick 14 has gotten a star 20% of the time, a solid player 30% of the time, and a bust 50% of the time.




Now onto the 2016 picks we gave up for O'Meara. This includes the picks we traded for pick 10, as well as what we gave to Carlton for the future second rounder. There are a few little intricacies in there, but all up it is essentially pick 23, 36, 48, 66, 70.

Pick 23: Charlie Gardiner, Tom Lonergan, Matthew Moody, Sean Rusling, Ryan Cook, Paul Stewart, Tayte Pears, David Zaharakis, Koby Stevens, Cameron Guthrie, Murray Newman, Marco Paparone, Matt Crouch, Pat McKenna, David Cunningham

6 busts, 5 solid players, 0 stars, 4 tbd.

Pick 36: Sam Mitchell, Tim Callan (F/S), Chris Johnson (F/S), Luke McGuane, Jake Edwards, Alwyn Davey, Steven Browne, Ashley Smith, Joel Houghton, Aaron Young, Rory Taggert, Tanner Smith, Jarred Jansen, Ed Vickers-Willis, Tom Cole

8 busts, 3 solid players, 1 star, 3 tbd.

Pick 48: Simon Cox, Greg Edgcumbe, Heath Shaw (F/S), Nathan Ablett (F/S), Alan Obst, David Mackay, Jarrad Boumann, Nicholas Heyne, Jesse Crichton, Alex Browne, Jordan Murdoch, Dean Kent, pass, Matthew Goodyear, Bailey Williams

9 busts, 1 solid player, 1 star, 3 tbd, and the pick was passed on in 2013

Pick 66: pass, Ryan Ferguson, pass, pass, Austin Lucy, Malcolm Lynch, Tom McNamara, Glenn Dawson, pass, Paul Puopolo, Lincoln McCarthy, Kaiden Brand, Sam Lloyd, Damien Cavka, Sam Menegola

6 busts, 1 solid player, 0 stars, 4 tbd, and the pick was passed on 4 times. It should be noted that Puopolo, Lloyd, and Menegola were all mature aged recruits, and would probably have slid to pick 88

Pick 70: pass, Matthew Lokan, Brent Hartigan, pass, Jonathan Giles, Sam Sheldon, Eljay Connors, pass, rookie, Nicholas Duigan, rookie, Michael Osborne, rookie, Abe Davis (acad), Matthew Hayball

7 busts, 0 solid players, 0 stars, 2 tbd, the pick was passed on 3 times, and used to upgrade rookies 3 times. Note: Osborne only played 5 games after being redrafted with pick 70, thus being considered a bust

Out of the 48 players taken with these picks (not including those tbd), only 2 are stars, and only 10 are solid players. That means just 4% of players taken with these picks are stars, and 21% are solid players.

For apparently selling the future by trading out all of our relevant 2016 draft picks, there sure isn't a great expected return on those picks. Using picks 14, 23, 36, 48, 66 and 70, we'd get a star maybe one out of every five drafts, one or two solid players every year, and four or five busts




Now let's look at the 2017 picks we gave up. The second round pick which we gave up appears to be our 2017 second rounder, and we kept GWS's. The fact it was a downgrade makes it really messy to analyse, but looking at the results of pick 23 and pick 36 above, this downgrade would be less than the difference between those two picks. For the first rounder i'm looking at all the picks from 6-12 (so predicting we finish 7th-13th).

6: Ashley Sampi, Steven Salopek, Kepler Bradley, Tom Williams, Beau Dowler, Mitch Thorp, David Myers, Chris Yarran, Gary Rohan, Reece Conca, Chad Wingard, Jackson Macrae, Matthew Scharenberg, Caleb Marchbank, Aaron Francis

4 busts, 5 solid players, 1 star, 5 tbd.

7: David Hale, Andrew Mackie, Kane Tenace, Jordan Lewis, Patrick Ryder, Joel Selwood, Rhys Palmer, Daniel Rich, Brad Sheppard, Josh Caddy, Nick Haynes, Ollie Wines, James Aish, Paul Ahern, Jacob Hopper

1 bust, 4 solid players, 4 stars (albeit Mackie and Ryder could be solids), 6 tbd.

8: Jimmy Bartel, Luke Brennan, Raph Clarke, John Meesen, Jarrad Oakley-Nicholls, Ben Reid, Lachlan Henderson, Ty Vickery, John Butcher, Dyson Heppell, Billy Longer, Sam Mayes, Luke McDonald (F/S), Peter Wright, Callum Ah Chee

5 busts, 2 solid players, 3 stars, 5 tbd.

9: Luke Molan, Hamish McIntosh, David Trotter, Jordan Russell, Mitch Clark, David Armitage, Ben McEvoy, Jack Ziebell, Andrew Moore, Dion Prestia, Adam Tomlinson, Nick Vlastuin, Christian Salem, Darcy Moore (F/S), Sam Weideman,

3 busts, 5 solid players, 1 star, 6 tbd.

10: Sam Power, Jason Laycock, Ryley Dunn, Chris Egan, Marcus Drum, Nathan Brown, Patrick Dangerfield, Phil Davis, Jake Melkshem, Daniel Gorringe, Liam Sumner, Joe Daniher (F/S), Nathan Freeman, Nakia Cockatoo, Harry McKay

6 busts, 2 solid players, 2 stars, 5 tbd.

11: Richard Cole, Jason Winderlich, Beau Waters, Adam Thomson, Shaun Higgins, Andrejs Everitt, Patrick Veszpremi, Steele Sidebottom, Jordan Gysberts, Thomas Lynch, Toby Greene, Troy Menzel, Dom Sheed, Liam Duggan, Wayne Milera,

4 busts, 4 solid players, 3 stars, 4 tbd.

12: Brent Reilly, Jay Schulz, Ryan Murphy, Danny Meyer, Nathan Jones, James Frawley, Cyril Rioli, Lewis Johnston, Kane Lucas, Lucas Cook, Sam Docherty, Kristian Jacksch, Ben Lennon, Jarrod Garlett, Charlie Curnow

5 busts, 2 solid players, 4 stars, 4 tbd.

If you take out the ones who are tbd, that means picks 6-12 have resulted in: 28 busts, 24 solid players, and 16 stars. Historically that's a 24% chance to get a star, and a 35% chance to get a good, solid player.




TL;DR
So what does all of that mean?

- It means if we had picks 14, 23, 36, 48, 66, 70, and our 2017 first rounder (~6-13), we would expect to find a star player maybe 30% of the time. We would also expect to find one or two solid players from those picks as well

- If you think O'Meara is a better than 30% chance of staying fit and becoming a star, then it's actually less risky to take him than to try and find a star with those picks.

- To me, Tom Mitchell would be in the solid player group atm, but he'd be right at the top of the list, bordering on being a star. The chance of finding two stars with those picks is probably <5%. So if you think the chance of JOM + TMitch both being stars is greater than 5%, then it's less risky than going to the draft. If we end up with one star and one solid player out of JOM/TMitch, we've still done significantly better than you would expect from the picks. One star and one bust is reasonable. One solid player and one bust would be disappointing, albeit very unlikely.

- Also something to consider is that i would say nearly half of the stars in the above lists are not players i would imagine you can build a team around. JOM is that kind of player, and they are almost always necessary to win a flag, and almost impossible to get without top 5 draft picks. Finding a Judd/Franklin/JOM type talent without a top 5 pick is ridiculously unlikely.

- Basically, draft picks are incredibly overrated based on the small chance you hit the jackpot. Mature players are less risky, but tend to not have that jackpot upside. A player like JOM is significantly more likely to hit that upside than a mid-late first rounder, and since the 'risk' side of things is the draft picks we paid for him, his risk is not much more than a first rounder.
I'm gonna wait for the movie!;):D
 
This can't be analysed for several years yet, but an example of previous trades of draft picks for players would show that we generally got a better player in the draft than the picks we gave away - assuming we would have drafted the players chosen at those picks. Some picks were ontraded before being used.

Since 2000:
2000 got Shaun Rehn from Adelaide for pick 12 (Shaun Burgoyne)
2002 got Peter Everitt from St.Kilda for picks 6 (Steven Salopek) and 22 (Matthew Ferguson)
2002 got Kingsley Hunter from Western Bulldogs for pick 35 (Scott Bassett)
2003 got Trent Croad from Fremantle for pick 10 (Ryley Dunn)
2009 got Josh Gibson from North Melb and pick 69 (Taylor Duryea) for picks 25 (Aaron Black) and 41 (Ayden Kennedy)
2009 got Shaun Burgoyne from Port Adel for picks 9 (Andrew Moore) and pick 16 (Jasper Pittard)
2010 got Kyle Cheney and pick 66 (Paul Puopolo) from Melbourne for pick 53 (Tom McDonald)
2010 got David Hale from North Melb for pick 27 (Kieren Harper) and pick 71 (Ben Mabon)
2011 got Jarrad Boumann from GWS pre-selection for pick 56 (Tom Downie)
2011 got Jack Gunston from Adelaide for picks 24 (Henry Schade - Gold Coast), 46 (Nick Joyce) and 64 (Cam Ellis-Yolmen)
2012 got Jed Anderson from GWS for picks 27 (James Stewart), 63 (not used) and Stephen Gilham
2012 got Brian Lake from Western Bulldogs for picks 21 (Nathan Hrovat) and pick 43 (Josh Saunders)
2012 got Matt Spangher from Sydney for pick 64 (Matthew Dick)
2013 got Ben McEvoy and pick 24 (Billy Hartung) from St.Kilda for pick 18 (Luke Dunstan), pick 19 (Blake Acres) and Shane Savage
2014 got Jonothan O'Rourke from GWS for picks 19 (Blaine Boekhorst - Carlton) and pick 40 (Alex Neal-Bullen)
2015 got Jack Fitzpatrick from Melbourne for pick 94 (not used)

The Tom Mitchell trade was fairly straight forward
We traded pick 14 (pick 17 overall after Academy selections - Jarrod Berry, Brisbane) for Tom Mitchell.

We ended up putting the farm on Jaeger as we traded picks 23, 36, 48, 66 and 70 along with next years' 1st round selection and a 2nd round selection from GWS via Carlton. In about 5 years' time we can analyse where those picks ended up and what became of them.
 
This is a great post
It really sums up our coaches' and recruiters' philosophy
I couldn't believe Pelchen's tight mouthed spiel about cumulative points and deficits which painted us as risk takers and bad judges.
What nonesense.
We've picked up 2 absolute A graders who'll play for 8 years plus.
One of them may well be the best in the next decade.
Will certainly monitor over ththe next few years the players taken with the picks we traded
2 absolute A graders, big call. Mitchell is B grade and well jaeger hasn't played for 2 years
 
This can't be analysed for several years yet, but an example of previous trades of draft picks for players would show that we generally got a better player in the draft than the picks we gave away - assuming we would have drafted the players chosen at those picks. Some picks were ontraded before being used.

Since 2000:
2000 got Shaun Rehn from Adelaide for pick 12 (Shaun Burgoyne)
2002 got Peter Everitt from St.Kilda for picks 6 (Steven Salopek) and 22 (Matthew Ferguson)
2002 got Kingsley Hunter from Western Bulldogs for pick 35 (Scott Bassett)
2003 got Trent Croad from Fremantle for pick 10 (Ryley Dunn)
2009 got Josh Gibson from North Melb and pick 69 (Taylor Duryea) for picks 25 (Aaron Black) and 41 (Ayden Kennedy)
2009 got Shaun Burgoyne from Port Adel for picks 9 (Andrew Moore) and pick 16 (Jasper Pittard)
2010 got Kyle Cheney and pick 66 (Paul Puopolo) from Melbourne for pick 53 (Tom McDonald)
2010 got David Hale from North Melb for pick 27 (Kieren Harper) and pick 71 (Ben Mabon)
2011 got Jarrad Boumann from GWS pre-selection for pick 56 (Tom Downie)
2011 got Jack Gunston from Adelaide for picks 24 (Henry Schade - Gold Coast), 46 (Nick Joyce) and 64 (Cam Ellis-Yolmen)
2012 got Jed Anderson from GWS for picks 27 (James Stewart), 63 (not used) and Stephen Gilham
2012 got Brian Lake from Western Bulldogs for picks 21 (Nathan Hrovat) and pick 43 (Josh Saunders)
2012 got Matt Spangher from Sydney for pick 64 (Matthew Dick)
2013 got Ben McEvoy and pick 24 (Billy Hartung) from St.Kilda for pick 18 (Luke Dunstan), pick 19 (Blake Acres) and Shane Savage
2014 got Jonothan O'Rourke from GWS for picks 19 (Blaine Boekhorst - Carlton) and pick 40 (Alex Neal-Bullen)
2015 got Jack Fitzpatrick from Melbourne for pick 94 (not used)

The Tom Mitchell trade was fairly straight forward
We traded pick 14 (pick 17 overall after Academy selections - Jarrod Berry, Brisbane) for Tom Mitchell.

We ended up putting the farm on Jaeger as we traded picks 23, 36, 48, 66 and 70 along with next years' 1st round selection and a 2nd round selection from GWS via Carlton. In about 5 years' time we can analyse where those picks ended up and what became of them.
The farm? We sold the shed,the blue heeler & beautiful young daughter for this guy!
 

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Posted this is another thread - these are the players drafted at the picks we gave up

Tom Mitchell
Jaeger Omeara

Vs

2016
Harry Perryman
Alex Witherden
Josh Williams
Lachlan Tiziani
Ryan Garthwaite

We also gave up next years first - I have assumed this will be offset by attaining a FA. If we don't get a decent FA I think it starts to get smelly for us.
 
If you are told you'll be given 500k, but there's a 1 in a trillion chance you could win a billion dollars if you decline the initial offer, would you try for it, or take 500k which would most likely set you up nicely

You'll never get the billion dollars, but I doubt anybody would give up a garrunteed 500k (unless they're already billionaires)
 
Posted this is another thread - these are the players drafted at the picks we gave up

Tom Mitchell
Jaeger Omeara

Vs

2016
Harry Perryman
Alex Witherden
Josh Williams
Lachlan Tiziani
Ryan Garthwaite

We also gave up next years first - I have assumed this will be offset by attaining a FA. If we don't get a decent FA I think it starts to get smelly for us.

Wont be smelly at all after JOM and TOM win their 5 shared brownlows in a row.
 
I mentioned it earlier in the thread, I don't see much point in saying "here are the players we missed out on, now lets see how they compare". The first point is that we wouldn't have picked those five players anyway. Hell, Perryman was an academy player, but even the others we would have had different priorities/rankings.

But more importantly due to the randomness of draft picks all you can do is take the long view over multiple drafts/trade periods. There's always a chance a club will draft the next Sam Mitchell with the pick 36 you gave them, but if you worry about that you'll never do anything.
 
We'll find out what we gave up at the end of this year. I suspect this is what we'll find:

We acquired a Brownlow vote sponging 8-year powerhouse midfield core at the cost of five players, only three of which will see more than a handful of games and only one of which may win a few Brownlow votes in his entire career.

I suspect that the talk at the end of this year will be yet again how unfair it is that the powerhouse club at Waverley is able to both dominate and play by the rules. I suspect that the fact we are playing this club management game exactly the way it's been designed to be played will be twisted into some sort of #head****ed call to nerf Hawthorn's football operations.
 
Great thread and great analysis Prudster.

I think all clubs understand that there are risks with drafting, clubs draft players with an array of knowledge behind them that indicates that they have the potential and or the current ability to be an AFL footballer, this knowledge only takes them so far and there are so many unknowns that come with the player once they are drafted, this is where the coaching and developing side come in and this (in conjunction with the players will to put in the hard yards) will ultimately determine whether or not they make it as an AFL player, in other words there is so so much water that must pass under the bridge before the player can become the player that it is hoped that they will become.

Clever trading and targeting of players via free agency has and will continue to change the landscape of recruiting, clubs can now target certain players to fill key roles for the now (as we have done so well in recent years), I think that the major dynamic with all of this is the targeting of those young players of day around 30 - 50 games, young players who have been in the system for a few years and have demonstrated their ability to play at AFL level, clubs can take target these players with the knowledge that they are still very young and that they should get good value out of them over a long period of time, this presents a more "accurate" science then that of drafting for clubs.

In essence it can become a toss up between taking the top 10 projected 18 year old who has only ever played underage footy at TAC Cup level against the 21 year old who has played 40 odd games of league footy and has shown their ability to play at the top level, to secure this player it might end up costing that club a top 10 pick for the trade but the club making the trade does so with more of an insight into the player they are getting.

In the case of Hawthorn, people may well say that we have given up too much in terms of draft picks to secure JOM and Mitchell but we have at least done so with the knowledge and evidence that indicates the ability of these two boys to play at the top level, yes there are risks associated with JOM in terms of his knee but those same risks come with many draftees prior to being drafted, Joel Selwood is a case in point, he was left till pick 7 because clubs were reportedly worried about his knee, that ended up working out fine for the Cats.

I'm not saying that this devalues the draft because it doesn't, clubs won't always find the answers in trading picks for younger or established players and as such there will always be a criticality in drafting young players into a club but in our case and where we sit currently with our list, Wright and Clarkson have determined that this (trading up picks for JOM and Mitchell) is the best approach for HFC.


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Some great posts. Although a tough decision to have made with Lewis and Mitchell, the potential scenario of seeing the likes of Mitchell Lewis Hodge Burgoyne Gibbo and any other sudden departure at the end of 2017 would have been a dire situation. So fingers crossed these new guys pick up from where Lewis and Mitchell left.
 
If clarkson recognized that GWS and Bulldogs play a particularly fast brand of footy that will set the tone for the league in the next few years then there's a chance that JOM and TOM will actually provide us with more output in 2017 than Mitchell and Lewis would have.

As individuals right now Mitchell and Lewis are clearly the better two players - but this is a complete redesign of that midfield structure - much like what we did when Franklin left. (Remember when gunston and roughy were going to get found out in 2014 because of having to deal with best defenders?).

As for the worth of those picks? Well 5 picks = about 10 years development of players before you even find out which of those 5 are any good, so we've saved ourselves that grief.
 

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