Racing Melbourne Cup 2020. * All race day discussion and Tips in here *(no aftertiming)

[balmainforever]

ANY AFTERTIMING WILL GET A CARD.

ANYONE BAGGING WHAT HAPPENED TO AVD GETS A CARD.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Tiger Moth 0.66
Sir Dragonet 0.65
Surprise Baby 3.00
Verry Elleegant 1.50
Anthony Van Dyck 0.77
Prince of Arran 0.44
Russian Camelot 0.71
Finche 0.84
Master of Reality 0.33
Warning 1.00
Miami Bound 0.64
Twilight Payment 0.76
Steel Prince 0.82
Stratum Albion 0.78
Persan 0.33

The DIs don't help you narrow it down any this year. AVD and Persan ones are interesting given their Australian bloodlines.

Not even Australian part for AVD, more amazing Exceed and Excel factor. I remember backing the sister in an Oakleigh Plate

 

[IKnowtheDog]

c

Generally the cups pools are large enough to negate over betting but this year the nuffies might not be able to bet on the tote in VIC and therefore the money may be more genuine. Going to be interesting to see the pools and dividends this year

will be interesting to see if the TABs reopen cup week. They’ve already missed the big turnover of this weekend, the ramifications if they miss cup week could be interesting

 

[HeathySure]

will be interesting to see if the TABs reopen cup week. They’ve already missed the big turnover of this weekend, the ramifications if they miss cup week could be interesting

i dont think its possible. The lines would be 5kms long especially with half the TABS shut down a few years ago. I have a feeling they wont open up until the week after

 

[iluvparis]

will be interesting to see if the TABs reopen cup week. They’ve already missed the big turnover of this weekend, the ramifications if they miss cup week could be interesting

Just checked - last years win pool on S-TAB for the Cox Plate was 1.2m - on Saturday it was only 800k - yuck

 

[Hawksboy72]

What's the record for fewest starts? surely an early derby winner on the backup trumps Peter Pans 7th career start?

I'll check the Google machine

 

[FallingLiefs]

i dont think its possible. The lines would be 5kms long especially with half the TABS shut down a few years ago. I have a feeling they wont open up until the week after

I was worried about catching contagions in TABs 5 years ago, I don’t see them re-opening quickly in vic. They stayed shut long after initial lockdown here. A month + unless I missed something?

 

[onebillsdrive]

What's the record for fewest starts? surely an early derby winner on the backup trumps Peter Pans 7th career start?

Martini Henri won the Cup at his second start.......first start won the VRC Derby

 

[AvantGardener]

Tiger Moth 0.66
Sir Dragonet 0.65
Surprise Baby 3.00
Verry Elleegant 1.50
Anthony Van Dyck 0.77
Prince of Arran 0.44
Russian Camelot 0.71
Finche 0.84
Master of Reality 0.33
Warning 1.00
Miami Bound 0.64
Twilight Payment 0.76
Steel Prince 0.82
Stratum Albion 0.78
Persan 0.33

The DIs don't help you narrow it down any this year. AVD and Persan ones are interesting given their Australian bloodlines.

This is ok if buying them from a yearling sale. Not one bit relevant when they now have exposed form.

 

[Mobythepom]

This is ok if buying them from a yearling sale. Not one bit relevant when they now have exposed form.

It's relevant when a horse is trying a new trip insofar as it gives you a best guess on breeding whether they will be suited to the new trip, so better than nothing. Several of this year's field haven't run much beyond 2400m yet.
Verry Elleegant, AVD and Russian Camelot are three examples.

 

[iluvparis]

PARIS POWER RANKINGS - BLUE WAVE

Every chance we see an Irish 1-2-3 next week the way things are heading

1 - TIGER MOTH (LW #1, $6.4) - Probably less classy than his stablemates but looks absolutely thrown in at the weights - remains the one to beat.
2 - SIR DRAGONET (LW #6, $8.6) - Utterly dominant in winning truly run Cox Plate from back in the field. Needs a genuine tempo to show his best but if he gets that at Flem can do an historic double.
3 - ANTHONY VAN DYCK (LW 2, $2) - Biggest certainty beat in a CC since Veandercross. Carrying the weight at Flemington plus the two miles the obvious query but with a nice draw can make his own luck up on the pace.
4 - VERRY ELLEEGANT (LW #3, $13.5) - hard to see her holding off AVD at Flemington with the penalty and if they both get fair runs. Add to that Sir D now might loom as a big threat as a get-back wet tracker. Still races erratically which could cost her to a greater degree over the two miles.
5 - RUSSIAN CAMELOT (LW #4, $12.50) - Another superb Cup trial from this bloke in the Cox Plate and now heads to the Melbourne Cup which has always been massively on his radar. If he was trained by Lloyd he'd probably be well into single figures. Can WIN!
6 - SURPRISE BABY (LW #5, Betfair $11) - Steel Prince's bitch continues to tumble in the rankings as more and more proven WFA performers show they are in form and heading there. Getting to the stage where it needs too many to run below par to win.
7 - FINCHE (LW #7, $24) - Raced wide, loomed as the winner, failed to place in Caulfield Cup. Will do the same at Flemington. If you put win money on this horse at Caulfield or do so at Flemington you are a dead set moron.
8 - PRINCE OF ARRAN (LW #8, $13) - Have never seen bigger poi poi in the history of the race than this bloke at $15, let alone the $13 he is now. Great run at Caulfield but see Finche for those considering a win bet. You should be emptying your entire betfair account laying this guy at current prices.
9 - STEEL PRINCE (LW u/r, $38) - Nice Geelong Cup win sees him into the field. Has beaten Surprise Baby before with a Cup spot on the line. Can run a nice top 10 again but not good enough to win.
10 - LE DON DE VIE (LW u/r, $160) - Probably the run of the race in the Geelong Cup but now needs to win the Lexus to make the field.

 

[54Dogs]

Solid rankings. Hard to see a universe where the raiders don't dominate again. I'd prob have Steel prince higher, super honest but just not classy enough. Maybe 6-7

 

[AvantGardener]

It's relevant when a horse is trying a new trip insofar as it gives you a best guess on breeding whether they will be suited to the new trip, so better than nothing. Several of this year's field haven't run much beyond 2400m yet.
Verry Elleegant, AVD and Russian Camelot are three examples.

Seeing them at 2400m gives a better indicator.

VE's DI said she wouldn't get 2400m.

Seeing AVD and RC at 2400m in real life gives a wayyyy better indicator than some number on paper.

 

[Mobythepom]

5 - RUSSIAN CAMELOT (LW #4, $12.50) - Another superb Cup trial from this bloke in the Cox Plate and now heads to the Melbourne Cup which has always been massively on his radar. If he was trained by Lloyd he'd probably be well into single figures. Can WIN!

Are you worried about the Cup being it's 5th run in 52 days? Trainer said it had a hard run on Saturday from it's wide draw and he just wants to be sure that the horse will recover ok.

 

[iluvparis]

Are you worried about the Cup being it's 5th run in 52 days? Trainer said it had a hard run on Saturday from it's wide draw and he just wants to be sure that the horse will recover ok.

Nah this is the style many hack Aussie trainers use under the Bart Cummings - needs to have run 10k rule.

Pretty much every local normally comes here with 4-5 prep runs.

 

[Mobythepom]

Third acceptances at the moment.
Expecting Mirage Dancer, Buckhurst, Toffee Tongue, Mugatoo, Raheen House and Zebrowski to duck out leaving True Self as the #24 assuming something jumps in from the Hotham.
Then San Huberto and Nickajack Cave next in....
Ashrun will probably need to win the Hotham to make the field, although we could still lose Dashing Willoughby and Nickjack Cave who are both being monitored by the vets.

 

[Scratchy05]

My personal power rankings. It seems like the track will be a good 4 so I'll be basing it off that
1. Tiger Moth - The horse to beat but at current odds, is kind of unappealing. Only 5th start but seems to be becoming a very impressive horse
2. Prince of Arran - Seems to grow a leg in Australia. 3rd in his first go followed by a 2nd last year and I think he is a very strong chance to go one better. Super in the Caufield Cup over an unsuitable distance and deck. 3200m on a good deck and he goes very close in my eyes, could very well win actually. Best jockey in the nation is a big plus as well.
3. Twilight Payment - Has had some very strong form beating Master Of Reality twice by 8L or more over 2800m. Finished 3rd against Fujaira Prince and Search for a Song who both placed in the Long Distance cup which is always G1 quality.
4. Surprise Baby - The best local hope IMO. Great turn of foot and can stay the distance but if he draws an inside barrier, I think he will be in trouble and will need a masterclass from Craig Williams.
5. Persan - Very progressive type. Hasn't put a foot wrong in his career so far. The form out of the Bart Cummings is looking very handy as well and has a very nice weight. Think he runs a strong race.
6. Master Of Reality - Huge in last years cup but failed a few times against Twilight Payment. Seems to have came into some form at least. The stable seem very happy with him
7. Anthony Van Dyck - Huge weight and never ran the distance makes him unappealing but couldn't have been more impressive in the Caufield Cup.
8. Finche - A genuine battler. Will run top 10 but cant see much better as I don't think he is good enough.
9. Steel Prince - A battler and has a versatile running style. Seems to always get better the further he gets into his prep and this is the right distance for him.
10. Vow & Declare - Very poor weights but is a 3000m horse. If he can sit on speed, he may be able to run top 8 but if he drops back, will run bottom 4. I assume he will press forward. I did consider Miami Bound but she needs a wet deck in my eyes. If it is wet, she becomes a top 4 chance but no Jamie Kah is a big negative as she seemed to get the horse to relax.


If you want my thoughts on any others, let me know.

 

[Scratchy05]

Third acceptances at the moment.
Expecting Mirage Dancer, Buckhurst, Toffee Tongue, Mugatoo, Raheen House and Zebrowski to duck out leaving True Self as the #24 assuming something jumps in from the Hotham.
Then San Huberto and Nickajack Cave next in....
Ashrun will probably need to win the Hotham to make the field, although we could still lose Dashing Willoughby and Nickjack Cave who are both being monitored by the vets.

Would agree with this

 

[Jugada]

Verry Elleegant the first at the top of the market I'm putting a line through. Two miles and a mare with 55.5kg - no thanks. Jameka/Lucia Valentina board with a couple extra kilos thrown on for good measure

 

[TBellicious]

My personal power rankings. It seems like the track will be a good 4 so I'll be basing it off that
1. Tiger Moth - The horse to beat but at current odds, is kind of unappealing. Only 5th start but seems to be becoming a very impressive horse
2. Prince of Arran - Seems to grow a leg in Australia. 3rd in his first go followed by a 2nd last year and I think he is a very strong chance to go one better. Super in the Caufield Cup over an unsuitable distance and deck. 3200m on a good deck and he goes very close in my eyes, could very well win actually. Best jockey in the nation is a big plus as well.
3. Twilight Payment - Has had some very strong form beating Master Of Reality twice by 8L or more over 2800m. Finished 3rd against Fujaira Prince and Search for a Song who both placed in the Long Distance cup which is always G1 quality.
4. Surprise Baby - The best local hope IMO. Great turn of foot and can stay the distance but if he draws an inside barrier, I think he will be in trouble and will need a masterclass from Craig Williams.
5. Persan - Very progressive type. Hasn't put a foot wrong in his career so far. The form out of the Bart Cummings is looking very handy as well and has a very nice weight. Think he runs a strong race.
6. Master Of Reality - Huge in last years cup but failed a few times against Twilight Payment. Seems to have came into some form at least. The stable seem very happy with him
7. Anthony Van Dyck - Huge weight and never ran the distance makes him unappealing but couldn't have been more impressive in the Caufield Cup.
8. Finche - A genuine battler. Will run top 10 but cant see much better as I don't think he is good enough.
9. Steel Prince - A battler and has a versatile running style. Seems to always get better the further he gets into his prep and this is the right distance for him.
10. Vow & Declare - Very poor weights but is a 3000m horse. If he can sit on speed, he may be able to run top 8 but if he drops back, will run bottom 4. I assume he will press forward. I did consider Miami Bound but she needs a wet deck in my eyes. If it is wet, she becomes a top 4 chance but no Jamie Kah is a big negative as she seemed to get the horse to relax.


If you want my thoughts on any others, let me know.

Fascinating list. On what basis do you have Persan, Vow & Declare, Steel Prince (and others) above Russian Camelot and Sir Dragonet

 

[iluvparis]

My personal power rankings. It seems like the track will be a good 4 so I'll be basing it off that
1. Tiger Moth - The horse to beat but at current odds, is kind of unappealing. Only 5th start but seems to be becoming a very impressive horse
2. Prince of Arran - Seems to grow a leg in Australia. 3rd in his first go followed by a 2nd last year and I think he is a very strong chance to go one better. Super in the Caufield Cup over an unsuitable distance and deck. 3200m on a good deck and he goes very close in my eyes, could very well win actually. Best jockey in the nation is a big plus as well.
3. Twilight Payment - Has had some very strong form beating Master Of Reality twice by 8L or more over 2800m. Finished 3rd against Fujaira Prince and Search for a Song who both placed in the Long Distance cup which is always G1 quality.
4. Surprise Baby - The best local hope IMO. Great turn of foot and can stay the distance but if he draws an inside barrier, I think he will be in trouble and will need a masterclass from Craig Williams.
5. Persan - Very progressive type. Hasn't put a foot wrong in his career so far. The form out of the Bart Cummings is looking very handy as well and has a very nice weight. Think he runs a strong race.
6. Master Of Reality - Huge in last years cup but failed a few times against Twilight Payment. Seems to have came into some form at least. The stable seem very happy with him
7. Anthony Van Dyck - Huge weight and never ran the distance makes him unappealing but couldn't have been more impressive in the Caufield Cup.
8. Finche - A genuine battler. Will run top 10 but cant see much better as I don't think he is good enough.
9. Steel Prince - A battler and has a versatile running style. Seems to always get better the further he gets into his prep and this is the right distance for him.
10. Vow & Declare - Very poor weights but is a 3000m horse. If he can sit on speed, he may be able to run top 8 but if he drops back, will run bottom 4. I assume he will press forward. I did consider Miami Bound but she needs a wet deck in my eyes. If it is wet, she becomes a top 4 chance but no Jamie Kah is a big negative as she seemed to get the horse to relax.


If you want my thoughts on any others, let me know.

If this list is anywhere near right (excluding #1) I will be losing absolutely everything

 

[Jugada]

My personal power rankings. It seems like the track will be a good 4 so I'll be basing it off that
1. Tiger Moth - The horse to beat but at current odds, is kind of unappealing. Only 5th start but seems to be becoming a very impressive horse
2. Prince of Arran - Seems to grow a leg in Australia. 3rd in his first go followed by a 2nd last year and I think he is a very strong chance to go one better. Super in the Caufield Cup over an unsuitable distance and deck. 3200m on a good deck and he goes very close in my eyes, could very well win actually. Best jockey in the nation is a big plus as well.
3. Twilight Payment - Has had some very strong form beating Master Of Reality twice by 8L or more over 2800m. Finished 3rd against Fujaira Prince and Search for a Song who both placed in the Long Distance cup which is always G1 quality.
4. Surprise Baby - The best local hope IMO. Great turn of foot and can stay the distance but if he draws an inside barrier, I think he will be in trouble and will need a masterclass from Craig Williams.
5. Persan - Very progressive type. Hasn't put a foot wrong in his career so far. The form out of the Bart Cummings is looking very handy as well and has a very nice weight. Think he runs a strong race.
6. Master Of Reality - Huge in last years cup but failed a few times against Twilight Payment. Seems to have came into some form at least. The stable seem very happy with him
7. Anthony Van Dyck - Huge weight and never ran the distance makes him unappealing but couldn't have been more impressive in the Caufield Cup.
8. Finche - A genuine battler. Will run top 10 but cant see much better as I don't think he is good enough.
9. Steel Prince - A battler and has a versatile running style. Seems to always get better the further he gets into his prep and this is the right distance for him.
10. Vow & Declare - Very poor weights but is a 3000m horse. If he can sit on speed, he may be able to run top 8 but if he drops back, will run bottom 4. I assume he will press forward. I did consider Miami Bound but she needs a wet deck in my eyes. If it is wet, she becomes a top 4 chance but no Jamie Kah is a big negative as she seemed to get the horse to relax.


If you want my thoughts on any others, let me know.

Some out of the box calls there for sure. No Dragon?

 

[iluvparis]

Verry Elleegant the first at the top of the market I'm putting a line through. Two miles and a mare with 55.5kg - no thanks. Jameka/Lucia Valentina board with a couple extra kilos thrown on for good measure

CC win still hurts does it - to be fair the Sydney plodders in the CP did make her form look pretty s**t (as I suggested pre race)

 

[Jugada]

CC win still hurts does it

Can't wait for The Cup II: Big Tones revenge. Gon be sweet

 

[iluvparis]

Can't wait for The Cup II: Big Tones revenge. Gon be sweet

 

[iluvparis]

OOE after third acceptances

https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2020-rv/the-sport/files/2020-10-26-lexus-melbourne-cup-elimination-order-as-at-oct-26-2020.pdf?la=en

A few going around looking for some epic penalties in the Bendigo Cup on Wednesday