Snuffaluphagus
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- Sep 10, 2015
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- #76
Several clubs rated Green at least the third best pick in the draft interviews with them after the draft, it’s not weird for Gav to have rated him so high
Our First Pick - The Deficit - We have pick 10!
- Thread starter Joao
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I don't predict where MacDonald will go, but trading down pick 4 to pick 8 is a lot more productive than just holding pick 8. And trading up pick 4 to get MacDonald would be heaps easier than trading up pick 8. And pick 4 itself opens the possibility of either MacDonald, Thilthorpe or (insert other elite talent), none of which will be available at 8.
Yes but why didn't they bid on him then? This is what is infuriating with this convo. If we rated Green that highly we would have bid on him. We didn't, therefore we didn't. What is said pre-draft and what actually happens are different things. The actual draft is where we find out what clubs really think by the actions they take. Some random fan liking Green more than others has zero bearing on the actions of Freo.
Taylor
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All of the GWS academy players have slipped down the order compared to where people assumed they would be.
Maybe, just maybe, Cal Twomey is very interested in academy players and their discussion pushes them higher up the list.
I remember two years ago we were being told to keep an eye on this Logan McDonald kid, we must keep our first round pick for him etc, two months ago he wasn't on the draft radar.
Now he is all the way at the top because he is the only show in town.
Draft rankings won't have changed much from last year.
Watchfromadistance
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He isn't at the top because ge is the only show in town. He is playing bloody good consistent footy at league level in the gardest position on the field, which only a few do.(Sheesh!)
On SM-A315G using BigFooty.com mobile app
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Do cats keep pick 11 that Suns traded to them if our points deficit calculates to pick 11?
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Great thread this.
Can’t wait to poke my nose in draft night when some player we’ve all seen a full 3 minutes of highlights of goes at the pick we would have had and everyone goes to meltsville.
If the player we draft instead turns into a superstar it’ll really cap it off.
Can’t wait to poke my nose in draft night when some player we’ve all seen a full 3 minutes of highlights of goes at the pick we would have had and everyone goes to meltsville.
If the player we draft instead turns into a superstar it’ll really cap it off.
Snuffaluphagus
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Ok, I think that's an interesting discussion in its self though. GWS did a trade (that is hurting them now) purely to get ahead of a Sydney bid which never came, they were always going to bid. Bid on Green to potentially save us some points down the road, or, dont play silly buggers and just take the kid you rate, I can see both arguments. I'd personally prefer option 1 and I dont think its that's an unreasonable opinion to have
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This is just fantastic planning in ensuring we avoid getting pick 6, which, until Jaidyn $tephenson came along, was universally reviled as the draft's devil number.
While collectively the top 10 picks in draft history average 107.5 AFL games each, the sixth pick has tallied barely more than half of that – just 56 games apiece.
It took 14 years of pick 6s before one of them even hung around long enough to become a 100+ games player. Do you know who that player was?
Even if I told you (and I will) and you have been a Freo person your entire life, you will still take a minute to go "Who? ... Oh yeah, that bloke." He's the world record holder of most games played for fewest Brownlow votes: the one, the only, the Grandson, Mr James Walker.
Other notable pick 6s that have ended up at Freo, after starting life elsewhere, include Dylan Smith (come on, man, you remember) and the cavalcade of footy quirk that is Kepler Bradley and Reece Conca.
The rest of them have been remorselessly ordinary.
Ray Sterret
Beau Dowler
Mitch Thorp
Matthew Scharenberg
It's best to avoid 6 and I dips me lid to Belly for putting in the spadework to ensure we give it a swerve. Keplers don't come along that often.
While collectively the top 10 picks in draft history average 107.5 AFL games each, the sixth pick has tallied barely more than half of that – just 56 games apiece.
It took 14 years of pick 6s before one of them even hung around long enough to become a 100+ games player. Do you know who that player was?
Even if I told you (and I will) and you have been a Freo person your entire life, you will still take a minute to go "Who? ... Oh yeah, that bloke." He's the world record holder of most games played for fewest Brownlow votes: the one, the only, the Grandson, Mr James Walker.
Other notable pick 6s that have ended up at Freo, after starting life elsewhere, include Dylan Smith (come on, man, you remember) and the cavalcade of footy quirk that is Kepler Bradley and Reece Conca.
The rest of them have been remorselessly ordinary.
Ray Sterret
Beau Dowler
Mitch Thorp
Matthew Scharenberg
It's best to avoid 6 and I dips me lid to Belly for putting in the spadework to ensure we give it a swerve. Keplers don't come along that often.
The draft has always included an element of strategy and it seems we may have used it when we selected Brayshaw at 2 and Cerra at 5. Hase and Pav as well.
By introducing Bidding, points, live trading, future pick trading, academy players, F/Ss, Free Agency compensation picks and expansion club draft benefits all makes it far more important that clubs work their strategies wherever possible, and just as we ask of the players, they need to learn and improve from experience.
By introducing Bidding, points, live trading, future pick trading, academy players, F/Ss, Free Agency compensation picks and expansion club draft benefits all makes it far more important that clubs work their strategies wherever possible, and just as we ask of the players, they need to learn and improve from experience.
Snuffaluphagus
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Truly a remarkable record, even Stephenson now looks a shadow of the player he was, it's like the footy Gods went; "Oi, that guys a pick 6 and dominating, do your ******* job Carl and get rid of his talent asap"
Ben King might have enough talent to foil the power of the footy Gods however
Its not a perfect market and clubs dont bid on f/s and NGA picks for a range of reasons. Most notably, clubs dont want to front up to their supporters and the media with their prized top 10 pick being "second prize" to the bloke you got outbid on. Nobody wants to think they got second best for any pick, particularly in Freo's situation of this being the draft to re-generate the list with an elite crop of youngsters. Its much cleaner for Freo to sell the story of getting all the blokes they wanted in the top 10, rather than the story being "Freo missed their man Green and had to settle".
Fwiw, I'm not sure I agree with the thought process but it exists and Twomey has said a number of times that it occurs - and its why the NGA players slide abit further, depending on the gumption of the clubs who have the picks to bid. I guess I'm not the list manager who has to front the media after the draft to explain how one of their prized picks of recent times is their second choice.
Can I throw into the mix - aren't we the club that has bid the most number of times on NGA/Father Sons since the ability to do so came in? If so, can this be extended to an argument that if we thought they were worth it we would have bid etc.
Yeah I agree as this is the exact same thing I and a bunch of others said about the situation as the draft happened when people were already whinging about having a deficit. It is yet another point that supports my argument for not bidding on Green.
How good a prospect is, is subjective. So if you have two or more players who you rate around the same mark then why would you bid on someone you aren't going to get? Yes you will disadvantage the club you are bidding against, and perhaps give your own club an advantage but you are definitely giving every other club an advantage in the process, and you are saying to the players you end up with you, you were second choice (we are talking young guys here so it will play in the back of their minds).
If you rate them clearly higher, then you bid on them. If you don't then I think you don't play silly buggers, especially with top 10 picks.
When we picked Young and Serong we didn't know we were going to end up with a deficit because it wasn't guaranteed Carlton would bid on Henry at #9. If Carlton had bid on Green first then it would have reduced our deficit the same way us bidding on him would have. And given the phantoms had him higher rated it was a fair assumption they might do that.
Our recruitment team has already said they still would have picked Young if they had pick #3. And similarly rated Serong that high. Twomey had both of these guys at #3 (and #4) in various phantoms so its not unrealistic. We rated them higher than Green. The club rated Henry higher than others mainly because they knew a lot more about him. The club hyped his debut for a reason because they love him.
This whole discussion is another case of hindsight hero imo. If Carlton had told us they were disorganised and would need more time at their pick and would therefore bid on Henry, and do it before Green, then yes maybe we should have bid on Green with one of our picks. But really we didn't know any of that at the time, so instead you pick best available... that was Young and Serong, and it meant we got Henry but with a deficit attached. It's still looks a massive win of a draft for us, and we don't yet know whether the deficit will even be a disadvantage at all.
Didn't know this : are you speculating or has it been reported?
The reality is that virtually every rated aligned player gets bid on, it is just a matter of when it happens. And it is clearly something that is strategised. We upgraded our picks to get ahead of bids. Strategies to avoid deficits should be in place.
Jimmy Walker
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The pick 6 thing isn't really a thing anymore.
Since about 2007 it's mostly produced solid players and some stars like Macrea and Wingard.
Since about 2007 it's mostly produced solid players and some stars like Macrea and Wingard.
Prestia
