The Big Issue - Has the club misread the football climate again?

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

I'm enjoying your views.

One thing you note which I forgot to mention was how Hawks went out and got Omeara and Mitchell. Seems to be a wise investment. We've seemingly gone the opposite route getting rid of Gibbs.

Yes it is possible we were never going to appease and keep such players and I know it's hard to lure talent to a bottom rung side but at the end of the day we still have a midfield lacking depth and arguably have misread the climate and the new trends.

Another thing I forgot to mention earlier is it's only a few years ago we were better than Richmond and now look at the two clubs.

I'm just catching up on this convo, so apologies if this has already been addressed, but using Geelong and Hawthorn as examples really doesn't hold up. They built through the draft, but it was 10+ years ago. They have used the JOM/Mitchell/Danger/Tuohy type trades/signings as a way of topping up an already top level team to stay at the top. We are coming in from the ground floor. This is the tactic we should have used back around 2010-12.
Teams that use this tactic are either top teams replacing retiring players, or top 8 teams on the cusp but unable to take that last step. It also doesn't work 100% of the time (see North).
You simply can't do it as a bottom rung team, for a number of reasons:
A couple of star players wouldn't leap frog us into contention.
We aren't going to lure too many A-graders in our current state.
To be a chance of luring said A-graders, we would have to pay more than anyone else is willing.
You need the surrounding pieces in place first - I think we are almost in this position, providing some of our current crop come on as expected.

Do I think we've misread the current climate? No. Not to say that it isn't a good discussion point though.

 

[Metalcrusher]

I honestly think our fans have misread the climate more so than the club.

 

[LanceRomance]

I honestly think our fans have misread the climate more so than the club.

I think you are right.

Most fans would be expecting more wins but we are still rebuilding.

Posters like Soapy V have read the climate well.

My worry is that if we keep losing, players and sponsors will jump off the band wagon.

I think we need to finish the season strongly with around 7-8 wins

 

[RudyBlue]

I honestly think our fans have misread the climate more so than the club.

Good pre-season form enhanced expectations. Feel like we've heard that story before.

In all seriousness though, we've had a run of three losses (all about ~5 goals), two of which have been highly disappointing. If you look at the form-line and place it in another part of the season, after say a few good wins, the backlash wouldn't be anywhere near as bad and would be considered the normal course of events for a developing team. This thread probably wouldn't exist.

I refuse to believe we're as bad as we've looked the last couple of weeks. If we can find the right mix of players (experience, youth, tall, small etc) and build some cohesion, the confidence and wins will come.

 

[Metalcrusher]

I think you are right.

Most fans would be expecting more wins but we are still rebuilding.

Posters like Soapy V have read the climate well.

My worry is that if we keep losing players and sponsors will jump off the band wagon.

I think we need to finish the season strongly with around 7-8 wins

I'm not overly worried about sponsors at this stage ... I'm more worried about our senior players coming near end of contract walking .....

 

[LordLucifer]

The other issue is with a seriously super draft looming do we go the Hawks model as signposted earlier and get a Omeara and Mitchell which would require sacrificing many high picks and thus missing out on the top end of the super draft or do we continue with the current youth path and perhaps even try and get another early pick? Imagine if we could get Rankine and Walsh.

Every club who has had significant success can trace it back to one or two specific drafts that set them up. If you look back at 2004, the Hawks made the bold move of trading Nathan Thompson (it was seen as bold at the time) for #10 & #26, they then ontraded #10 to the Pies for #7.

They went to the draft with #2 (priority) & grabbed Roughhead, #5 and grabbed Franklin & #7 to pick up Lewis.

The next year they traded out Jonathon Hay & Nathan Lonie for picks 14 & 18. At the draft, they got Xavier Ellis at #3 (another priority) & Grant Birchall at #14. (Yes, I know there were a few misses in there too).

The point being there is two drafts from which they snagged 5-players who played in premierships for them, they traded hard & drafted shrewdly (bet they laughed when the Tigers grabbed Tambling).

It is my opinion that we are at that same crossroad right now too and hope that our people make some very astute & shrewd decisions in regards to trading & drafting.

This next draft pool, if you believe what the supposed experts are saying, is a massive bumper crop of genuinely good players from #1 to around #35. If we want to really bolster the list, it is imperative that we have at an absolute minimum, three picks inside this Top 35.

Based on current form & ladder position, sadly, #1 or #2 should be ours. A couple of second rounders from the other clubs should get us another pick inside that 35 too. I'm not against asking the question for a Priority Pick either, I think we are very close to deserving one too. Let's say they give us one at the end of the First Round (I think that would be fair) it could be #19 or #20.

This still leaves open the option to trade out a player or two to get another pick hopefully in the Top 20. Admittedly, it may be a player the fans really like but we have too many of that player type already. Could be a player with issues behind the scenes that we would never be aware of (ie. bad attitude or not liked by the other players etc).

Going into this draft with 4 quality picks and assuming that we used them very wisely, we to could set ourselves up for the next decade.

 

[mochacinolatte]

To be honest I am not all that concern. When we lose Gibbs and Docherty (no one expected this) for 2018 our progress was going somewhat stagnate.

The key issue I have notice compared to this year and last year is that these players will always 'pull the trigger' and what I mean by this is they had the skillset or license to take the game on. If you notice our first 3 games, our switch play is much slower and a lot of hesitation for that inside kick or going down the line for a 50/50 contest. At the moment it seems the player waits for like 10 seconds, the opponent sets up and fist over the line.

Also it looks like the players are struggling with both attacking and defending especially when we turn the ball over. I seen a lot of blokes struggling and running on fumes during the 3rd quarter.

I am not at all concern, but I believe its gonna take a few more rounds till we gel together as a team. All I care about is how our new draftees develop this year.

 

[DangerousD]

I think ur wrong, supporters as a majority have been calling for this club to do what it’s currently doing. There will always be those that are disillusioned.

SOS needs to start getting in some mature age quality as free agents, a Gaff and Jetta double will do me nicely as both won’t cost the earth but fill some glaring deficiencies in depth that we have.

 

[DangerousD]

In my opinion, we dont need FA’s now at all.

Hawks showed how to deal with FA’s, you build a highly competitive team, let them develop and mature and create some sustained success, then when the level has peaked and begins to taper off, then pursue FA’s - this turns a one crack at a title in to 3 or 4.

The success in itself makes it attractive for prospective FA’s.

I cant understand why anyone would be concerned why bombers are attracting some players - there isnt one of them that has gone there in recent years outside of the draft, that id want to take on. Usually flakey types or basket cases themselves....

The Hawks also showed that trading 1st round picks to get fun players is a good strategy.

That’s something that’s spoken of here as being akin to murder

 

[Jimmae]

The Hawks also showed that trading 1st round picks to get fun players is a good strategy.

That’s something that’s spoken of here as being akin to murder

I personally felt that the Mitchell trade was overs, and given how much he dominates possession for what the Hawks get out of it, I'd stand by that.

Would you call the O'Meara trade a success? We were interested in both players, but Hawthorn threw away two drafts to secure them (and then Impey).

 

[DangerousD]

Every club who has had significant success can trace it back to one or two specific drafts that set them up. If you look back at 2004, the Hawks made the bold move of trading Nathan Thompson (it was seen as bold at the time) for #10 & #26, they then ontraded #10 to the Pies for #7.

They went to the draft with #2 (priority) & grabbed Roughhead, #5 and grabbed Franklin & #7 to pick up Lewis.

The next year they traded out Jonathon Hay & Nathan Lonie for picks 14 & 18. At the draft, they got Xavier Ellis at #3 (another priority) & Grant Birchall at #14. (Yes, I know there were a few misses in there too).

The point being there is two drafts from which they snagged 5-players who played in premierships for them, they traded hard & drafted shrewdly (bet they laughed when the Tigers grabbed Tambling).

It is my opinion that we are at that same crossroad right now too and hope that our people make some very astute & shrewd decisions in regards to trading & drafting.

This next draft pool, if you believe what the supposed experts are saying, is a massive bumper crop of genuinely good players from #1 to around #35. If we want to really bolster the list, it is imperative that we have at an absolute minimum, three picks inside this Top 35.

Based on current form & ladder position, sadly, #1 or #2 should be ours. A couple of second rounders from the other clubs should get us another pick inside that 35 too. I'm not against asking the question for a Priority Pick either, I think we are very close to deserving one too. Let's say they give us one at the end of the First Round (I think that would be fair) it could be #19 or #20.

This still leaves open the option to trade out a player or two to get another pick hopefully in the Top 20. Admittedly, it may be a player the fans really like but we have too many of that player type already. Could be a player with issues behind the scenes that we would never be aware of (ie. bad attitude or not liked by the other players etc).

Going into this draft with 4 quality picks and assuming that we used them very wisely, we to could set ourselves up for the next decade.

Is there any player who would get a pick around 20 that we could afford to offload?

I don’t see much expendable talent, possibly a player could get a 3rd rounder that could be paired with a 2nd.

Off current form the dogs pick should fall mid 20”s and a PP is possibly on the cards.

 

[No1Suspect]

I'm just catching up on this convo, so apologies if this has already been addressed, but using Geelong and Hawthorn as examples really doesn't hold up. They built through the draft, but it was 10+ years ago. They have used the JOM/Mitchell/Danger/Tuohy type trades/signings as a way of topping up an already top level team to stay at the top. We are coming in from the ground floor. This is the tactic we should have used back around 2010-12.
Teams that use this tactic are either top teams replacing retiring players, or top 8 teams on the cusp but unable to take that last step. It also doesn't work 100% of the time (see North).
You simply can't do it as a bottom rung team, for a number of reasons:
A couple of star players wouldn't leap frog us into contention.
We aren't going to lure too many A-graders in our current state.
To be a chance of luring said A-graders, we would have to pay more than anyone else is willing.
You need the surrounding pieces in place first - I think we are almost in this position, providing some of our current crop come on as expected.

Do I think we've misread the current climate? No. Not to say that it isn't a good discussion point though.

Agree here A graders no, but kids with real promise, desperate for games being held out by and already established midfield i believe is a real possibility. We just need to get into their ears and probably overpay to entice them further. Ie. McGlynn Kennedy.

 

[DangerousD]

I personally felt that the Mitchell trade was overs, and given how much he dominates possession for what the Hawks get out of it, I'd stand by that.

Would you call the O'Meara trade a success? We were interested in both players, but Hawthorn threw away two drafts to secure them (and then Impey).

I loved Mitchell at Sydney and think he was a steal at pick 14, I like his clearance work and ability to bring others in to the game. I wish he was in our side.

Omeara I thought was a big risk and that they paid overs, time will tell but I’m glad we didn’t go after him.

Impey also Looks like a bargain.

 

[Stamos]

Every club who has had significant success can trace it back to one or two specific drafts that set them up. If you look back at 2004, the Hawks made the bold move of trading Nathan Thompson (it was seen as bold at the time) for #10 & #26, they then ontraded #10 to the Pies for #7.

They went to the draft with #2 (priority) & grabbed Roughhead, #5 and grabbed Franklin & #7 to pick up Lewis.

The next year they traded out Jonathon Hay & Nathan Lonie for picks 14 & 18. At the draft, they got Xavier Ellis at #3 (another priority) & Grant Birchall at #14. (Yes, I know there were a few misses in there too).

The point being there is two drafts from which they snagged 5-players who played in premierships for them, they traded hard & drafted shrewdly (bet they laughed when the Tigers grabbed Tambling).



It is my opinion that we are at that same crossroad right now too and hope that our people make some very astute & shrewd decisions in regards to trading & drafting.

Were you asleep during the 15/16/17 trade periods & drafts?

 

[Bluey24]

I believe the Club is on the right path

Many fans were too quick to forget about 1) the list that Bolton and SOS inherited, and 2) it is still way too early in our list's development to make a verdict

Testament to this is the ridiculous expectations posted by many of you on here on the eve of the season - I can't be assed going back through the records, but I was shut down many a time for serving up a dish of reality in reply

We won't regret these early years of pain when we dominate the 2020s. Please be patient, keep going to games, cheer on the young nucleus that'll deliver our next Premiership

 

[DangerousD]

Were you asleep during the 15/16/17 trade periods & drafts?

We hope those are our drafts to propel us to the promised land but they could easily backfire, we won’t know for a few years.

 

[Soapy V]

I'm not overly worried about sponsors at this stage ... I'm more worried about our senior players coming near end of contract walking .....

My only concern (and it's minimal) is the club not sticking to the path it's on. It may be a bit of pain this year but from 2019 when we start to win and with an exciting group, membership, sponsors will jump on

 

[Soapy V]

The Hawks also showed that trading 1st round picks to get fun players is a good strategy.

That’s something that’s spoken of here as being akin to murder

Always had a good base. We had nothing and a lot of average players. Once we get the base and have success we can do "mini" rebuilds but nothing like now if we are smart

 

[Soapy V]

I personally felt that the Mitchell trade was overs, and given how much he dominates possession for what the Hawks get out of it, I'd stand by that.

Would you call the O'Meara trade a success? We were interested in both players, but Hawthorn threw away two drafts to secure them (and then Impey).

There are always what ifs and maybes. I am happy where we are and this coming trade/draft period can top it off.

A midfield of Cripps Kennedy Curnow SPS Charlie Fisher Lang Dow will be very good by the end of 2019. Then there is Polson & Cuningham who have potential.

Add to that Pick 2 (Walsh?) and a FA (Gaff?) and a gun trade (Wines?) a late trade like Lang, plus some more picks (2 x second rounders) and it is as good a midfield as there is and will match anyone. That is on top of outside class in Pickett O'Brien Williamson & Garlett plus some very talented young key position players

 

[Bluey24]

There are always what ifs and maybes. I am happy where we are and this coming trade/draft period can top it off.

A midfield of Cripps Kennedy Curnow SPS Charlie Fisher Lang Dow will be very good by the end of 2019. Then there is Polson & Cuningham who have potential.

Add to that Pick 2 (Walsh?) and a FA (Gaff?) and a gun trade (Wines?) a late trade like Lang, plus some more picks (2 x second rounders) and it is as good a midfield as there is and will match anyone. That is on top of outside class in Pickett O'Brien Williamson & Garlett plus some very talented young key position players

Nailed it

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

The Hawks also showed that trading 1st round picks to get fun players is a good strategy.

That’s something that’s spoken of here as being akin to murder

In our position it almost would be murder. The Hawks were a top team trying to prevent a slide by replacing guys like Mitchell, Lewis and Hodge.
You can't just look at top teams and say 'we should do that' when you don't have the supporting cattle.

 

[The Toad]

In the imortal words of that shampoo chick. "It won't happen overnight, but it will happen"

 

[thylacine60]

fully expecting gaff to tell us to gagf.......both perth clubs on the ascendancy........

 

[Styxx]

Let's revisit this mid 2019.

If we are in the same spot then, then it leans towards yes. If there is an upswing of tangibility then no

 

[RattAttack]

Not sure how people were expecting us to have a successful season when we turned over 40+ players within 3 seasons (virtually the entire list). Not to mention losing one of our most important mids (Gibbs) and our B&F winner (Doc). Despite selling hope, internally I'm sure the Club was well aware of what 2018 was going to look like.

It hurts seeing us perform the way we are but we need to be patient. This was always going to happen.

Our strategy is fairly clear to see. We may not like it but it is what it is and was necessary considering how bad we allowed things to get (thanks Mick..)