Recommitted Tim Kelly [requested a trade to West Coast]

[Obeanie1]

When they thought GWS would have pick #11 and #12. That's not happening now.

Is that your interpretation or have clubs come out and said that?

Only time will tell. My money is several clubs will trade out of the top 10 this year. What that costs the club trading in we will need to wait and see.

 

[Taylor]

Is that your interpretation or have clubs come out and said that?

Only time will tell. My money is several clubs will trade out of the top 10 this year. What that costs the club trading in we will need to wait and see.

That is what I believe the clubs were hoping to do. Get GWS their pick before Green's bid and walk off with their #11 and #12. GWS get their two top five picks from this draft and everyone is happy.

Except now it's at best #11 and #15.

 

[Obeanie1]

That is what I believe the clubs were hoping to do. Get GWS their pick before Green's bid and walk off with their #11 and #12. GWS get their two top five picks from this draft and everyone is happy.

Except now it's at best #11 and #15.

Fair enough. But only one club can do that deal. Three others have flagged they want to turn their top 10 pick into multiple later picks.

This trade period will see a lot of pick swapping IMO.

And next year we will see even more.

 

[Overhang]

If this years draft is so weak multiple clubs want to trade out of the top 3>10 that would indicate trading for those picks won't cost what it cost last season!

The reports are you could throw a blanket over 3-15ish and land a similarly talented player and do the same from 16-40ish. So clubs are willing to trade a pick 3-10 for two cracks, one in the first and another in the 2nd.

When people talk a weak draft they mean a draft with a deep pool of talent, picks 1-5 and even 1-10 are normally valued the same each year, the talent in this pool doesn't really alter year to year. If anything during a weak draft the cost to trade into the top 10 increases.

 

[Obeanie1]

When people talk a weak draft they mean a draft with a deep pool of talent, picks 1-5 and even 1-10 are normally valued the same each year, the talent in this pool doesn't really alter year to year. If anything during a weak draft the cost to trade into the top 10 increases.

That's not what is being reported by the so called industry 'experts' this draft. Many posters from different clubs are saying the same.

Picks 1-2 are standouts.

Picks 3-18ish are very even. 19 to 40 the next level of quality but again very even. That's why clubs with a pick between 3 and 10 have flagged they are willing to talk about trading out of the top 10. That wasn't happening last season because the top 7-8 were of higher quality.

That's not me saying this it's the so called 'draft experts' who spend their lives looking at and commenting on the AFL draft.

 

[Overhang]

That's not me saying this it's the so called 'draft experts' who spend their lives looking at and commenting on the AFL draft.

Any links?

That looks way too convenient that the pool of talent is basically the same for the 1st round and then magically jumps down at the 2nd round.

 

[Taylor]

Fair enough. But only one club can do that deal. Three others have flagged they want to turn their top 10 pick into multiple later picks.

I think they all want that particular deal with GWS.

 

[HairyO]

Further reference points.

Twomey rated Green at 5 while Knightmare rated him at 2. Not asking you to agree, just recognise. Supposedly St Kilda and another Melbourne team have been quite big on Green.

All of Melbourne, St Kilda, Adelaide and Carlton have stated that they would be interested in multiple first round picks for their very early picks. That has not been the case in prior years to my knowledge.

Hypothetical - would GWS accept Hawthorn’s pick 10 for Paton and pick 13 since it is more of a salary dump? Not out of the question?

I am expecting high diversity in the top 10 prospects from different clubs and more surprises in the first 2 rounds than in more recent drafts.

All this means to me is that there will be considerable opportunities to get picks inside the top 10.

I actually have a high regard for Wells as a talent identifier and what he said he wanted in the 2018 draft will not be the same as what he wants this year. Personal opinion only because I see a very different outlook this year.

Hawthorn would offer a future 4th for Patton.

And if we want Finn with our 2nd round we want our 1st to be as high as possible.

Dont think any other club trades influence Kelly?

I assume all that happens with Kelly is its a 1st and a 2nd. Or 2 1sts - whichever numbers they may be.

If Geelong go silly then WCE stop the trade talk. And Kelly decides if he goes to the draft.

 

[Neale4brownlow]

Imagine kelly doing a knee this weekend, that would throw a cat amongst the pigeons


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

Not if Coniglio's contract is anything to go by.

 

[Obeanie1]

Any links?

That looks way too convenient that the pool of talent is basically the same for the 1st round and then magically jumps down at the 2nd round.

Not the same for the first round. First two players picked are up there. Picks 3>18/20 the next tier.

Then the next tier again.

AFL trade news 2019: Full list of trades for each club at conclusion of trade window

All the trades from every AFL club at the conclusion of the 2019 trade window.

www.sportingnews.com

delaide are open to trading their highest-ever draft pick this season in what's set to be a more-even draft. If they do trade the pick, they'll be looking to target tall midfielders and outside speed, in order to try and make their way back to the finals.

AFL trades 2019: Adelaide, St Kilda both set to put top draft picks on the table in trade period

Two clubs throw top draft picks on the table in bold trade plays

www.foxsports.com.au

Recruiters feel there is a clear gap between the top two prospects in the draft and the remainder of the first round, with Vic Metro pair Matt Rowell and Noah Anderson widely tipped to be the first two selections.

Go look at the draft podcasts on the AFL site where this is discussed in more detail.

 

[Overhang]

Not the same for the first round. First two players picked are up there. Picks 3>18/20 the next tier.

Then the next tier again.

AFL trade news 2019: Full list of trades for each club at conclusion of trade window

All the trades from every AFL club at the conclusion of the 2019 trade window.

www.sportingnews.com

delaide are open to trading their highest-ever draft pick this season in what's set to be a more-even draft. If they do trade the pick, they'll be looking to target tall midfielders and outside speed, in order to try and make their way back to the finals.

AFL trades 2019: Adelaide, St Kilda both set to put top draft picks on the table in trade period

Two clubs throw top draft picks on the table in bold trade plays

www.foxsports.com.au

Recruiters feel there is a clear gap between the top two prospects in the draft and the remainder of the first round, with Vic Metro pair Matt Rowell and Noah Anderson widely tipped to be the first two selections.

Go look at the draft podcasts on the AFL site where this is discussed in more detail.

Thanks for the follow up, I'm not sure how much to read into that given Carlton were also open to trading their pick 1 last year.

 

[Neale4brownlow]

Kelly does. You're telling him you value him but not so much you won't completely **** him around for the sake of a second round pick. Reckon he signs a lucrative one year contract at the cats rather than go the draft again rather than go to a club trying to list him below his value and possibly failing for the nth time. Fair betrayal of trust that

You're just assuming his family motives aren't legitimate?

Last year he was held to a contract and he honored it for that 1 more year. Staying for 1 more year doesn't make his family reason any less legitiamate. It just means 1 year is not a long time and is doable. Your playing future however (5-6years)... is not.

This year is a different kettle of fish. He's served his contract and has the ability to go home freely.

If Kelly nominates the Eagles again then rest assured he's coming home to WA and not staying in Geelong.

If Cats/Eagles lock horns in a stalemate it'll only cause Kelly to see the Cats more negatively, not the Eagles.

I would think his family motives are genuine, otherwise why bother moving from the Cats when you get to play alongside the likes of Danger/Gablett/Jelwood?!.

So if we can assume his family motives are true then you can take this to the bank: If a deal can't get done then Kelly will hit the draft. Worst case he ends up at Fremantle and he's back in WA (so his family is happy). Best case he still gets to the Eagles.

It never gets to that point though when an uncontracted player asks to leave - and this occasion will be no exception. Eagles will offer slightly unders what he's worth in an open market (probably 13+22) and the Cats will take it.

This forum is relatively toxic so I would add a disclaimer to the above - none of that is meant to anger or provoke. This is just the reality as I see it and based entirely on the assumption that Kelly would prefer not to go to Freo. If he's ok with going to Freo then Eagles will need to cough up closer to fair value on him (13+22+ icing).

Losing A-grade players at any time is a tough pill to swallow. If Kelly was contracted and/or happy to stay in Geelong then he's worth a top 10 pick no question.

 

[Obeanie1]

Thanks for the follow up, I'm not sure how much to read into that given Carlton were also open to trading their pick 1 last year.

It could all be b.s. It just sounds like this year more movements are likely with club's wanting to trade out of picks 3 to 10.

No-one really knows how good a draft truely is for five years anyway.

 

[Obeanie1]

Thanks for the follow up, I'm not sure how much to read into that given Carlton were also open to trading their pick 1 last year.

Here's another snippet that came out today.

AFL trade chat with Tom Morris: Heath Shaw in limbo — and stand-off over Joe Daniher scenario

AFL trade state of play: Three-way stand-off over blockbuster deal

www.foxsports.com.au

Maxwell
1:00 PM
tom, you mentioned this draft coming on November is not a strong one. How deep is it before it becomes a lottery do you think?


Tom MorrisMod replied Maxwell
1:00 PM


I had a good chat to my draft expert Ben Waterworth and he told me "It's a lottery after pick 7" - He's the expert!!

 

[Scotland]

When people talk a weak draft they mean a draft with a deep pool of talent, picks 1-5 and even 1-10 are normally valued the same each year, the talent in this pool doesn't really alter year to year. If anything during a weak draft the cost to trade into the top 10 increases.

I disagree. A weak draft simply means the talent pool isn't as strong as other years. I don't think there's a hard and fast rule about how that looks.

2001 is the original super draft. Hodge, Ball, Judd top 3. Bartel at 8. Sampi, Clarke, Polak highly rated but didn't go on with it. But then you've got Ablett F/S, Steve Johnson, Swan, Sam Mitchell, Dal Santo, Gram, Waite F/S, Lake scattered all the way down to pick 71. If you had an early pick you had a good chance of drafting a future star. If you didn't, you still had a better than normal chance of drafting quality players and even future stars with later picks.

If you look at 2002 and 2003 then they are weaker in all aspects. There is the odd standout but no one as good as Judd/Hodge/Ablett and a best 22 from 2001 would easily beat a combined best 22 from 2002 and 2003. Back when there were first round PPs being s**t in 2001 or 2004 was worth a lot more than being s**t in 2002 or 2003. You wouldn't be unhappy with Goddard at 1, but it falls away after that.

I don't know if 2017 is considered weak or strong but we prioritised getting picks in the 20s. 13 Brander, 21 Allen, 26 Ryan, 32 Ainsworth, 38 Petruccelle. I'd love Naughton or Rayner etc. on our list but I'm not looking at the top 10 (which were were out of) and seeing a bunch of hall of famers while we've just got GOPs from our picks. Last year's strong draft seems to have a few great prospects down to pick 18 and no one beyond then has shown too much yet but it's early days. I can see why Port were so keen to get a top 5 pick, and I can see why Walsh was a consensus #1. But by the same token people raved about Tom Boyd pre draft and he was just OK.

So yeah, the 2019 draft might be weak but I reckon there are different takes on that. Could have a couple of standouts and then not much after that, could have a dozen or so players rated about the same but none as highly as Walsh or Rayner etc. It's possible looking at the draft pool that pick 5 is worth a lot more than pick 10, but it's also possible that the difference between 5 and 10 or 10 and 20 or 20 and 30 is minimal given the relative talent on offer.

/musing

 

[Overhang]

I disagree. A weak draft simply means the talent pool isn't as strong as other years. I don't think there's a hard and fast rule about how that looks.

I probably tend to agree with Obeanie, we really don't know how strong the draft is until 5 years later. Those drafts you mention, I can't really recall at the time but there wasn't the analysis available to the public back then like there is today (01,02,03 etc). In saying that last year was touted as a strong draft and so far it has lived up to that expectation, I'm not sure I can recall so many first year players having such an impact.

 

[Overhang]

Here's another snippet that came out today.

AFL trade chat with Tom Morris: Heath Shaw in limbo — and stand-off over Joe Daniher scenario

AFL trade state of play: Three-way stand-off over blockbuster deal

www.foxsports.com.au

Maxwell
1:00 PM
tom, you mentioned this draft coming on November is not a strong one. How deep is it before it becomes a lottery do you think?


Tom MorrisMod replied Maxwell
1:00 PM


I had a good chat to my draft expert Ben Waterworth and he told me "It's a lottery after pick 7" - He's the expert!!

Another interesting one here https://www.afl.com.au/news/2019-09...rder-for-academy-jet-but-will-they-get-there-

"It's easy to say, 'Yeah, we would love to move up', and if the opportunity presents then we would do that, but if it is 11 and 18, and then there's a priority pick [possibly given to Gold Coast] so it's 12 and 19, then how far up are you going to get?

"You might only get up to pick seven and that might not help us achieve what we want to achieve. It's been really hard to plan."

So Adrian Caruso (GWS recruiting manager) believes that 11 and 18 might get you pick 7, so I don't think there is much hope of getting pick 5 with 13 and 22.

On the same token there seems to be more merit behind to clubs willing to downgrade picks

Melbourne (currently with pick two), Adelaide (pick three) and St Kilda (pick five) are among the clubs who have been discussing trading down the order with multiple selections, although the Saints may have to keep pick five to land wantaway Fremantle speedster Bradley Hill.

 

[Scotland]

I probably tend to agree with Obeanie, we really don't know how strong the draft is until 5 years later. Those drafts you mention, I can't really recall at the time but there wasn't the analysis available to the public back then like there is today (01,02,03 etc). In saying that last year was touted as a strong draft and so far it has lived up to that expectation, I'm not sure I can recall so many first year players having such an impact.

If memory serves me correct 2001, 2006, 2008 and 2010 were highly rated drafts leading in. Last year got the same hype. Three of those earlier 4 coincided with WC being rubbish so naturally as a WC fan I had more interest in them when we had early picks. Unless it's someone I've seen play in the WAFL before being drafted I'm not that excited about any of our draftees until I see them play.

2018 will be interesting because 3 of the top 6 were talls who generally take longer. Plus Rankine and Max King didn't play this year. Rozee played every game and led Port's goalkicking, Walsh is a gun already and was one vote off a perfect 45/45 in the Rising Star.

 

[Furn2]

All drafts are a lottery from pick 1, the 2001 super draft had 8 misses In the top 15 add only 3 dead set guns in the top 23.

 

[Scotland]

2001 is great reading for a handful of clubs and facepalm territory for others.

Haw: Hodge, Mitchell, Brown
Geel: Ablett, Bartel, Kelly, Johnson
St K: Montagna, Ball, Dal Santo
WC: Judd (+ 2 OK premiership players)

Ess, Port, Rich, Melb, NM fans 'if you don't want to know the score look away now'.

 

[strauchnyy]

I think in the absence of WC getting creative, it'll be 13 + 22 + 32 for TK (plus maybe a R3 or R4).

 

[CatToTheFuture]

You're just assuming his family motives aren't legitimate?

Last year he was held to a contract and he honored it for that 1 more year. Staying for 1 more year doesn't make his family reason any less legitiamate. It just means 1 year is not a long time and is doable. Your playing future however (5-6years)... is not.

This year is a different kettle of fish. He's served his contract and has the ability to go home freely.

If Kelly nominates the Eagles again then rest assured he's coming home to WA and not staying in Geelong.

If Cats/Eagles lock horns in a stalemate it'll only cause Kelly to see the Cats more negatively, not the Eagles.

I would think his family motives are genuine, otherwise why bother moving from the Cats when you get to play alongside the likes of Danger/Gablett/Jelwood?!.

So if we can assume his family motives are true then you can take this to the bank: If a deal can't get done then Kelly will hit the draft. Worst case he ends up at Fremantle and he's back in WA (so his family is happy). Best case he still gets to the Eagles.

It never gets to that point though when an uncontracted player asks to leave - and this occasion will be no exception. Eagles will offer slightly unders what he's worth in an open market (probably 13+22) and the Cats will take it.

This forum is relatively toxic so I would add a disclaimer to the above - none of that is meant to anger or provoke. This is just the reality as I see it and based entirely on the assumption that Kelly would prefer not to go to Freo. If he's ok with going to Freo then Eagles will need to cough up closer to fair value on him (13+22+ icing).

Losing A-grade players at any time is a tough pill to swallow. If Kelly was contracted and/or happy to stay in Geelong then he's worth a top 10 pick no question.

I agree with you that this thread is fairly toxic, I also never claimed his reasons for wanting to go home aren't legitimate. I simply said he won't want to go to the draft.

His preferences likely go West Coast, Freo, not going to the draft, going to the draft in that order. The 2nd, 3rd, and 4th preferences are irrelevant because West Coast has more than enough in trade already without having to get too creative.

He'll pretend to be open to all options until he's sure a deal can be worked out and he won't end up having to field phone calls from Stewy Dew then he'll announce club of choice, then it's done.

 

[Scotland]

Honestly, who cares?

I like the coaches award. Throws up some curious votes now and then but is supposed to be the two coaches opinions of the 5 best players involved in each game. BOG from both coaches probably means more to a player than BOG from Razor Ray or some commentator who reads the stats after the game and says words like 'reconise'.

The AFLPA MVP is a gag award though with the way the players nominate and vote. They put up left field selections like forwards and then end up all voting for the best midfielders anyway.

 

[Neale4brownlow]

Another interesting one here https://www.afl.com.au/news/2019-09...rder-for-academy-jet-but-will-they-get-there-



So Adrian Caruso (GWS recruiting manager) believes that 11 and 18 might get you pick 7, so I don't think there is much hope of getting pick 5 with 13 and 22.

On the same token there seems to be more merit behind to clubs willing to downgrade picks

I guess there's no hard and fast rule for Pick X = Y+Z. It all depends on each clubs wants and needs that draft.

The one mentioned previously was Eagles trading pick 6+44 for 11,31 and 49. So essentially pick 6 = 11+31 that year.
I seem to recall Eagles fans fuming at the time (myself included at such a trade).

But in the end the rationale was that Eagles were targeting WA talent (Sheed) and he'd be there at pick 11 based on the teams who held pick 7-> 10. They were correct in that assumption and basically gained a pick 31 for nothing.

This year I don't see any obvious picks inside the top 10 that are get able. Port might be open to letting pick 9 go for 13+32 but then that seems like overs without something coming back.

 

[Scotland]

The 2013 trade was due to WC being keen on Sheed and agreeing to trade our 2nd round pick to Brisbane for Yeo. For whatever reason we wanted to maintain a second round pick.

I am a fan of Salem but I am happy with Sheed compared to anyone taken 6-10. I'd give up Sheed in a heartbeat to get Kelly or Bont but we never had a pick that early anyway. As it turned out our 3 wins were Sheed at 11, Yeo via trade for 28 and Barrass at 43 and using the extra pick 31 on Karpany had little impact on anything. Not sure why we favoured Sheed over Cripps but both were available at 6 or 11.

We've done a few pick swaps over the years that raised a couple of eyebrows at the time but so far none have burned us badly.