Recommitted Tim Kelly [requested a trade to West Coast]

[AsterixTheGaul]

GWS Recruiting manager Adrian Caruso

"A big part of our strategy [last year] was, 'Let's try to trade up'. We had picks nine, 11 and 19 (before bidding) so we wanted to package those up and get in, but nobody in the top seven or eight was taking our calls," he said. ​

​

"This year it's different. They're ringing us. It sounds like these clubs with picks at the top want to get deals done so splitting their pick makes sense and I think it's also because of the evenness of that top end [of the draft to go for] two players rather than one." ​

The clubs have had 2 or 3 preliminary meetings and the view is that Melbourne, Saints, Carlton and Adelaide would be interested in trading down. Not possible last year as it was a seller's market. This year is the opposite and it is a buyer's market. Something like pick 3 to 5 for Kelly would be attainable. But would Wells accept a single very pointy end pick?

As others have pointed out, a pick that early would be a winner otherwise Kelly goes to the draft and Eagles pick him up early. No way Suns are going to pick a player that wants to go home.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Though it worth returning to see whether the views on double standards by Geelong have changed. Following the Ablett sympathy card, the Cats are now wanting to low ball St Kilda to get Stevens back home to look after him and improve his mental health. I’m hearing a pretty reasonable pick is the request - possible 3rd rounder.

Does that mean the Cats will participate in swings and roundabouts?

Surely West Coast letting Masten go signals the club are making it possible for him to return. Last thing I expect Geelong would want is to add to Kelly’s anxiety and possible depression by trying to play hard for the second year when his number 1 priority is (and rightfully so) to make sure his family unit are best cared for.

It will be interesting if the community club of Geelong is true to it’s values. Otherwise it is no better than Hawthorn claiming to be the Family Club despite being one of the biggest owners of pockie machine that are hurting battling families!

Interesting times ahead.

Steven has sat out most of the year with mental health issues and is nearly 30.

Kelly is in his club's top 5 players just made AA and is 25.

I get the point you're making about off field stuff but if you cant get the concept that they have significantly different trade values you're either not a great judge of trades or you're trolling.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

GWS Recruiting manager Adrian Caruso

"A big part of our strategy [last year] was, 'Let's try to trade up'. We had picks nine, 11 and 19 (before bidding) so we wanted to package those up and get in, but nobody in the top seven or eight was taking our calls," he said. ​

​

"This year it's different. They're ringing us. It sounds like these clubs with picks at the top want to get deals done so splitting their pick makes sense and I think it's also because of the evenness of that top end [of the draft to go for] two players rather than one." ​

The clubs have had 2 or 3 preliminary meetings and the view is that Melbourne, Saints, Carlton and Adelaide would be interested in trading down. Not possible last year as it was a seller's market. This year is the opposite and it is a buyer's market. Something like pick 3 to 5 for Kelly would be attainable. But would Wells accept a single very pointy end pick?

As others have pointed out, a pick that early would be a winner otherwise Kelly goes to the draft and Eagles pick him up early. No way Suns are going to pick a player that wants to go home.

You wont get a top 5 pick GWS are more desperate for it and have more assets to trade for it and the clubs with those picks know that. Your best hope is say 13 and 22 to Carlton for 8 (who on trade 22 for Martin) and 8 plus something for Kelly.

 

[Scotland]

Gold Coast get 22 for Martin
Carlton get 13 + Martin for 8
Geelong get 8 + some more for Kelly

Not sure Gold Coast will be having that.

 

[Neale4brownlow]

The 2013 trade was due to WC being keen on Sheed and agreeing to trade our 2nd round pick to Brisbane for Yeo. For whatever reason we wanted to maintain a second round pick.

I am a fan of Salem but I am happy with Sheed compared to anyone taken 6-10. I'd give up Sheed in a heartbeat to get Kelly or Bont but we never had a pick that early anyway. As it turned out our 3 wins were Sheed at 11, Yeo via trade for 28 and Barrass at 43 and using the extra pick 31 on Karpany had little impact on anything. Not sure why we favoured Sheed over Cripps but both were available at 6 or 11.

We've done a few pick swaps over the years that raised a couple of eyebrows at the time but so far none have burned us badly.

Cripps at Pick 13 would've been a bigger win.... though sheed kicking that goal last year sort of trumps all doesn't it?

 

[Pure_Ownage]

And leverage affects his trade compensation.

Only if the player is prepared to walk out and head to the draft with a price on his head. Otherwise it doesnt.

 

[Scotland]

We didn't cost ourselves a shot at Cripps, though. He was there for the taking at 6 and 11. We preferred Sheed and that's the path we went down. If Cripps was tipped to go top 5 and we traded down 6 to 11 because we didn't think we could get him and then he slid to 6 we would look a bit foolish.

 

[Scotland]

Leverage affects all trades.

There is no such thing as a definitive player value because every club has different currency. If the team with pick 5 wants Kelly with pick 5 and the team with pick 8 doesn't, is he worth pick 5 or is he not worth pick 8? Irrelevant unless he wants to be traded to one of those teams.

If Kelly was under contract and WC had pick 5 what chance would there be of a trade not involving pick 5? SFA.

Leverage.

 

[Neale4brownlow]

Gold Coast get 22 for Martin
Carlton get 13 + Martin for 8
Geelong get 8 + some more for Kelly

Not sure Gold Coast will be having that.

Surely this is just shifting deck chairs around.

8 plus something (so either 32 or 59 - Cats would probably want the pick 32).

So why bother with any of that and lets just offer what we already have at the start (ie 13,22 + something). Surely the Cats would rather have our original draft picks rather than us going out and trying to repackage them somehow and sell them back to the Cats?

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Though it worth returning to see whether the views on double standards by Geelong have changed. Following the Ablett sympathy card, the Cats are now wanting to low ball St Kilda to get Stevens back home to look after him and improve his mental health. I’m hearing a pretty reasonable pick is the request - possible 3rd rounder.

Does that mean the Cats will participate in swings and roundabouts?

Surely West Coast letting Masten go signals the club are making it possible for him to return. Last thing I expect Geelong would want is to add to Kelly’s anxiety and possible depression by trying to play hard for the second year when his number 1 priority is (and rightfully so) to make sure his family unit are best cared for.

It will be interesting if the community club of Geelong is true to it’s values. Otherwise it is no better than Hawthorn claiming to be the Family Club despite being one of the biggest owners of pockie machine that are hurting battling families!

Interesting times ahead.

The situation is not exactly comparable. Steven isn't even certain to be playing next year let alone playing at his best. Even at his best he hasn't had a year like Kelly's this year. He's 30 and long odds to be in our next premiership, Kelly is 25, an age you can build around and he will be a huge part of the eagles in 2020 though to 2025.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

That is what I believe the clubs were hoping to do. Get GWS their pick before Green's bid and walk off with their #11 and #12. GWS get their two top five picks from this draft and everyone is happy.

Except now it's at best #11 and #15.

It lessens their hand a bit but they still have 11 15 whatever compo they get for Tomlinson and maybe players (Bonar/Hately come to mind) to trade for 2/3/4. My point was they have a much better hand to trade for that than WCE.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Surely this is just shifting deck chairs around.

8 plus something (so either 32 or 59 - Cats would probably want the pick 32).

So why bother with any of that and lets just offer what we already have at the start (ie 13,22 + something). Surely the Cats would rather have our original draft picks rather than us going out and trying to repackage them somehow and sell them back to the Cats?

Not really because the players we want to replace Kelly with will be there at 8 but probably wont at 13which would be our rationale.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Gold Coast get 22 for Martin
Carlton get 13 + Martin for 8
Geelong get 8 + some more for Kelly

Not sure Gold Coast will be having that.

True they may want 13 or 22 plus something else. My point was more that WCE dont have the assets to trade for a pick before a Green bid Carlton at 8 (which will be after a Green bid) is probably the best they can do.

 

[Neale4brownlow]

Not really because the players we want to replace Kelly with will be there at 8 but probably wont at 13which would be our rationale.

No I mean if 13+22 = 8. Then wouldnt the Cats just prefer having 13 and 22 and deciding what they want to do for it?

Eg: Cats might want the extra picks, or they might want to bundle them together with some of their own to get an even lower pick.

My point being I wouldve thought the preference would be on getting our raw picks, not sending us out on a mission to put a different coloured ribbon on the same parcel.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

The only land in which 13 + 22 gets you a top 5 pick is called fantasy land.

In west coast land. All first round picks are the same. Pick 9 13 18 6 are all the same value apparently.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

No I mean if 13+22 = 8. Then wouldnt the Cats just prefer having 13 and 22 and deciding what they want to do for it?

Eg: Cats might want the extra picks, or they might want to bundle them together with some of their own to get an even lower pick.

My point being I wouldve thought the preference would be on getting our raw picks, not sending us out on a mission to put a different coloured ribbon on the same parcel.

If pick 13 22 can get pick 8 then it's up to you to do it not us.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Which club would commit to a $1,200,000 one year deal for a player entitled to go be with his family for mental health reasons and not play a single game for them? Especially when Kelly gets to carry his own contract into the draft and selecting him is agreeing to those terms, terms that will guarantee payment.

Kelly's manager jumps on the phone to a psychologist friend and she coaches Tim on how to come across as depressed when talking to his non WA club doctor, the doctor signs off on it and he flies back to Perth within 24 hours.

Above all the AFL hate bad press, so they will ensure a trade gets done.

That's all nice and good. Until the footy world laughs at Tim when he refuses to talk to Fremantle given his in Such a poor mental health state.

That's where it all falls apart and makes Tim look a fraud with the whole story just said.

If Tim is open to all his options to get home then it's a different story.

Any onus on a fair trade talks squarely on the team recruiting him, not the team trading him, as we drafted him and developed him and should be compensated for it as such.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

No I mean if 13+22 = 8. Then wouldnt the Cats just prefer having 13 and 22 and deciding what they want to do for it?

Eg: Cats might want the extra picks, or they might want to bundle them together with some of their own to get an even lower pick.

My point being I wouldve thought the preference would be on getting our raw picks, not sending us out on a mission to put a different coloured ribbon on the same parcel.

Geelong might be worried by the time they get those picks the chance to trade up has gone though. It depends on their strategy if they want a specific player say Stephens/Flanders/Robertson they might feel they can get them at 8 but not 13. Whereas if they just want best avail at 13 and 22 or trade 22 for a player then the 2 lower picks may not bother them. Only those inside Geelong know.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Pure_Ownage any chance of getting our hands on Fremantle's pick 5 they will get for brad Hill?? Would put us in a very strong spot to nab a top midfielder

 

[Capriati]

Not really. You would have had us covered with Kelly in your team. No doubt.

To be fair, I don't think any one player cost us this years premiership. We weren't as good as a team week in week out as we were 12 months ago. If we had won on Friday, two more wins would have been too much anyway, tbh.

No doubt Kelly would have helped, but there were other pieces of the puzzle as well (NN, JK, TB).

 

[The Joker]

I hope everyone stays out of this trade and Geelong take The Eagles to the cleaners, again!

13, 31 and F1st for Tim Kelly and a F7th.

That's a good deal for a gun player!

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Pure_Ownage any chance of getting our hands on Fremantle's pick 5 they will get for brad Hill?? Would put us in a very strong spot to nab a top midfielder

Freo wont trade that to WCE if thats what you mean. They would trade 5/6 to us if they can convince Kelly to go there (big IF).

 

[The Joker]

To be fair, I don't think any one player cost us this years premiership. We weren't as good as a team week in week out as we were 12 months ago. If we had won on Friday, two more wins would have been too much anyway, tbh.

No doubt Kelly would have helped, but there were other pieces of the puzzle as well (NN, JK, TB).

That may have been the case if Kelly missed the whole seasons and played his first game last week, but he would have been the difference between 5th and top 2 with two home games before the GF if he played the whole season like he has for Geelong!

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Freo wont trade that to WCE if thats what you mean. They would trade 5/6 to us if they can convince Kelly to go there (big IF).

If he decides to go there.

Would land us brodie Kemp a local pioneer midfielder who I reckon we would be wrapt with.

 

[Capriati]

That may have been the case if Kelly missed the whole seasons and played his first game last week, but he would have been the difference between 5th and top 2 with two home games before the GF if he played the whole season like he has for Geelong!

I know you guys are drinking your bathwater after last weekend, but that is a bit of revisionism. Let's not forget up until Thursday afternoon, most Geelong supporters were expecting a loss on Friday night.

Kelly adds to any team he is in, but there were many factors that resulted in us not going Back 2 Back.

-Nic Nat only playing 5 games
-JK inconsistent
-Tom Barrass hand injury
- Being overrun by Collingwood in Rd 17
- Losing to Hawthorn in Rd 23
- Losing to Richmond by 6 points after kicking 7 in first quarter
- Willie getting in trouble

How many of those problems does TK solve? Not very many.

You are being disingenuous if you are trying to say they TK would somehow deliver a premiership to us this year. As a Freo fan you wouldn't know, but any time you win a premiership a lot of it comes down to luck with injuries/form going your way, and when it doesn't, even a very good team doesn't win a premiership.

Granted TK would make our team stronger. Similar to Lynch going to Richmond made them a better team.

We know that, they do too.

The thing that bugs me about this whole thing is that throughout this entire saga there has always been a theme of "we can't give TK to WC cos they are contending". Even Wells said something about no team wanting TK at WC. Whether we are contending or not, TK will probably nominate to go to WC because he wants to go home. That means there are two option, WC or Freo. Of those two options, one is able to set him up for life. The other, not so much. Of course that means he will be bullish which club he goes to.

I just hope a trade gets done. Realistically, it means we will give up more than we would like, and Geelong would need to accept less that what they would want to.